RESIDENTIAL GROWTH STRATEGY - Palmerston North City Council

RESIDENTIAL
GROWTH STRATEGY
September 2010

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Contents
1 Background to the Residential Growth Review..................................................... 5
2 Strategic Framework............................................................................................ 6
3 Growth Projections .............................................................................................. 9
3.1 Demographic trends .................................................................................... 9
3.2 Population Projections............................................................................... 10
3.3 Household projections ............................................................................... 13
3.4 Residential preferences and future demand............................................... 16
3.5 Providing for growth .................................................................................. 17
4 Objectives for Residential Growth ...................................................................... 18
5 Potential Locations For Future Residential Growth............................................. 20
5.2 Consultation................................................................................................ 20
5.3 Summary Evaluation ................................................................................... 24
6 Summary and Next Steps .................................................................................. 33
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1 Background to the Residential Growth Review
1.1.1 This document outlines Palmerston North City Council’s review of options and
subsequent strategy for future housing development. It summarises the results
of a comprehensive evaluation of a wide range of possible sites to
accommodate future residential growth. This document is intended to provide
a strategic lead as to how and where the City should grow. This strategy will
be implemented via changes to the District Plan made under the Resource
Management Act 1991.
Scope of the review
1.1.2 The review of growth options commenced with the aim of identifying the most
appropriate areas to accommodate Palmerston North’s housing growth needs
for a 20 year period. In order to achieve this, an assessment was made of
18 potential areas around the City. These sites were subject to public
consultation via a discussion document published in July 2009.
1.1.3 Following consultation the site options were assessed against a set of
15 objectives, which were designed by Council to best reflect the principles of
sustainable development. These objectives are set out in section 4, below.
1.1.4 The strategy review is focussed on “greenfield” land for residential expansion –
i.e. land in the rural zone that is currently undeveloped. The other main ways
that new housing is provided are by “infill” - i.e. subdivisions of sections within
the existing urban area; and by rural-residential development. Provisions for
these lifestyle choices will be examined as part of the ongoing District Plan
review.
1.1.5 The scope of the review has been focussed in this manner to allow for a rapid
process leading to early identification of the City’s growth areas in the short –
medium term. This is because it is important to identify land now, before the
existing “landbank” of undeveloped residential zoned land is depleted.
1.1.6 The latest monitoring data show that at the end of 2009, Palmerston North had
a remaining greenfield landbank of 158 Ha, deemed sufficient to yield around
1,582 residential lots. At the average growth rate over the last 10 years, this
land would provide around 10 years supply, although this period is now likely to
be somewhat longer given the recent economic downturn. It is notable,
however, that most of this land (102 Ha) is located in the Aokautere area,
where the broken nature of the land results in relatively low lot yield, high
servicing costs, and consequential high section costs. This means that the
scope for developing a range of housing, including more affordable lots, is
already limited.
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2 Strategic Framework
2.1.1 In addition to work on residential growth, the Council is undertaking a number
of strategic planning initiatives, which together will inform the review of the
District Plan and other related activities. These planning projects and their
relation to residential growth are summarised below.
Sustainable City Strategy
2.1.2 In June 2010, Palmerston North City Council adopted a Sustainable City
Strategy. This is a high level vision for the future development of the City in a
matter which improves outcomes across the four well-beings identified in the
Local Government Act 2002, namely environmental, social, cultural and
economic.
2.1.3 The Sustainable City Strategy identifies a number of requirements relating to
future development of the City, which are of direct relevance to the residential
growth review. In particular;
• The need to ensure that growth areas are close to, and well connected to, the
existing City, so as to reduce fossil fuel dependency for travel, and to facilitate
active travel modes (cycling and walking).
• The need to ensure that future housing supply includes a variety of housing
types, including quality affordable housing.
• Improving the stock and quality of habitats and native vegetation in the City.
• Ensuring that land is identified to meet the projected growth for the City.
2.1.4 The preferred growth areas identified in the residential growth review have
been assessed as being the sites most capable of achieving these aims.
Transport Plans
2.1.5 The Council has a long term plan to develop an outer ring road for the City.
This is set out in the current Transport Management Plan, and in the draft
Regional Land Transport Strategy (published June 2010). The ring road will
enable easy access to different parts of the City without the need to traverse
the City’s inner roading network, particularly for traffic crossing the river. This
will be important to ensure that the city does not suffer traffic congestion as its
population and economic activity continue to grow. The ring road concept will
also allow through-traffic to by-pass the City, again reducing congestion.
2.1.6 The ring road concept is illustrated on map 1 at the back of this document.
This is indicative only as the final route has yet to be determined.
Implementation of this project will take some time to reach completion. It is a
major undertaking, which will involve significant roading upgrades and,
ultimately, two new bridge crossings for the Manawatu River. Inevitably it will
have to be phased in over a number of stages.
2.1.7 Work to date has identified the first priority to be the development a new bridge
crossing located upstream of the existing Fitzherbert bridge at Te Matai Road/
Staces Road, together with a package of strategic roading upgrades to improve
accessibility from Feilding to the Eastern side of the City, including the airport
and the North East Industrial Zone.
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2.1.8 These works are dependent on funding assistance from the NZ Transport
Agency (NZTA). The new Government has revised funding priorities for land
transport, and in particular has introduced a requirement for major projects to
be supported by strategic studies.
2.1.9 In light of this new requirement, NZTA has worked with Palmerston North City
Council, Manawatu District Council, and Horizons Regional Council on a
30 year transport strategy covering the area roughly bounded by Sanson,
Feilding, the Manawatu Gorge and Shannon. This strategy is now reflected in
the draft Regional Land Transport Strategy.
2.1.10 On a more general front, the Council wishes to facilitate the development of
sustainable transport in the City. This implies reducing the need for travel,
especially by private car, and optimising alternative modes, particularly public
transport, cycling and walking. Urban form and density of development are key
considerations in this regard, and this is reflected in the Council’s objectives for
residential growth (see section 4), as well as the selection of the preferred
growth areas.
Industrial growth
2.1.11 The Council is currently working to ensure that the City has an appropriate
supply of industrial zoned land to facilitate future economic development. A
joint study was undertaken with Manawatu District Council in 2007. This study
identified preferred locations for future industrial growth at Feilding, Longburn
and the North East Industrial zone located by Palmerston North airport.
2.1.12 As a first priority, the Council is concentrating on the expansion of the North
East Industrial zone, which was identified as a priority in the 2007 study. The
Council is also continuing to work with Manawatu District Council to examine
longer term growth options, including consideration of potential amalgamation,
or adjustments to the PNCC / MDC boundary. Work will soon commence on a
city wide review of the existing industrial zones to ensure that the District Plan
provisions remain appropriate (this work was last undertaken in 2001). This
work will feed directly into the review of the District Plan (see below).
2.1.13 There are two main links between industrial and residential growth planning.
The first is to avoid possible potential adverse effects which may occur when
industrial and residential zones are located in close proximity. This is an issue
for much of the existing industrial zone in the City.
2.1.14 The second link is the consideration of the relative locations of industrial and
residential zones in terms of ease of access. It is desirable to locate respective
zones so that people have the opportunity to live close to their workplace so
that the need for travel, particularly by car, is minimised. The identified
preferred growth options achieve these aims.
Rural Residential Strategy
2.1.15 Around 42% of the District Plan rural zone is currently made available for rural
residential development. In the main, this land is located to the south of the
river in the foothills of the Tararua Ranges. However a significant amount of
rural residential development has also occurred on rural zoned land (outside
identified rural residential areas) close to the City.
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Rural residential development is a popular lifestyle choice, and accounted for 13% of
all residential development over the 10 year period 1998-2007. However this form of
development does raise a number of issues. Firstly, in comparison to residential
development, rural residential development takes up large areas of land relative to the
numbers of people accommodated. For rural residential development, the District Plan
provides for a minimum lot size of 1 hectare, with a minimum area of 3500m 2 in the
Aokautere Rural Residential area, and a minimum of 1.5 hectares in the Moonshine
Valley area. This means that whilst a typical urban residential development will
provide at least 10 homes per hectare of land, rural residential development will
provide a maximum of 0.67 – 3 homes per hectare.
2.1.16 The Council has identified the need to avoid the loss of high class soils as one
of its top priorities, along with avoidance of flood risk (see section 4 of this
document). While the preferred locations for rural residential development are
located on the City’s poorer soils, subdivision does occur on higher class soils
and the overall level of ongoing subdivision represents a threat to the overall
productivity of the rural zone.
2.1.17 The second major issue is that rural residential development close to the edge
of the City can impede options for future residential growth. This is a significant
issue given that the City faces considerable natural restrictions, such as flood
risk, in consideration of growth options.
2.1.18 In light of this, the Council is undertaking a review of its provisions for rural
residential land. This is likely to lead to a more targeted application of rural
residential zoning. In considering options for residential growth, the Council
has also considered whether particular site options might be better suited to
rural residential land use.
Retail Strategy
2.1.19 The Council has adopted a retail strategy, the main purpose of which is to
consolidate existing business zones in order to preserve their vitality. The
intention is to avoid dispersal of retail activity throughout the city so as to
minimise the need to travel and allow retail activities to benefit from co-location.
This strategy is the subject of the first changes to the District Plan under the
ongoing review.
2.1.20 In considering options for residential growth, one of Council’s objectives is to
encourage development which supports existing business areas. This implies
maintaining a compact urban form in which people find it easy and convenient
to access the City’s retail facilities.
Urban Design Strategy
2.1.21 Council has signalled a strong intention for improved urban design outcomes in
the City by preparing an Urban Design Strategy and becoming a signatory to
the NZ Urban Design Protocol.
2.1.22 The Ministry for the Environment has provided the following definition of urban
design within the New Zealand Urban Design Protocol:
2.1.23 “Urban design is concerned with the design of the buildings, places, spaces
and networks that make up our towns and cities, and the ways people use
them. It ranges in scale from a metropolitan region, city or town down to a
street, public space or even a single building. Urban design is concerned not
just with appearances and built form but with the environmental, economic,
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social and cultural consequences of design. It is an approach that draws
together many different sectors and professions, and it includes both the
process of decision-making as well as the outcomes of design”.
2.1.24 The residential growth review is looking for suitable locations for growth at a
broad, City-wide level. Urban design principles at this level are reflected in the
objectives for residential growth, in particular those relating to the compact city,
accessibility and sustainable transport. Having identified the most suitable
areas for growth, the next stage is to work up planning provisions, including
structure planning, to guide the sustainable design of the growth areas. More
detailed urban design considerations will apply during this process.
District Plan Review
2.1.25 The District Plan will be the major vehicle by which the outcomes of the
residential growth strategy are implemented. This will be done by means of
zone changes and the use of objectives, policies and rules to ensure that
development occurs in a sustainable manner.
2.1.26 The District Plan is currently in the early stages of its review process. The
review is comprehensive, covering the entire Plan. Following the 2009
amendments to the Resource Management Act, the Plan is being reviewed
section by section, rather than as a whole. This enables a more efficient
process than a full plan review. The outcomes of the residential growth strategy
will feed directly into the Plan review.
3 Growth Projections
3.1 Demographic trends
3.1.1 The estimated resident population of Palmerston North City was 80,300 at
30 June 2009, an increase of 950 people from 30 June 2008. This represents
an increase of 1.2 percent, compared with the national increase of 1.1 percent
over the same period. The June 2009 estimate was derived by updating the
base population at 30 June 2008 for estimated births and deaths of New
Zealand residents, net permanent and long-term migration, and estimated
internal migration over the last 12 months. Major contributors to the stronger
population growth between June 2008 and June 2009 were an increase in
tertiary student numbers and a sharp reduction in external migration during the
2008/09 global economic recession.
3.1.2 Over the 10 years between June 1999 and June 2009 the population of the City
has grown by 4,800, or 6.4%. Growth was flat between 1999 and 2002, after
which the population grew rapidly between 2002 and 2004. Growth has
continued between 2005 and 2009, albeit at a slower pace. This is shown in
Table 1 and Figure 1, below.
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Table 1.
Estimated Resident Population Change – Palmerston North City
(June year 1998-2008)
At 30 June Estimated Resident Population Annual Percentage Change
1999 75,500 0.4
2000 75,400 -0.1
2001 75,200 -0.3
2002 75,800 0.8
2003 76,900 1.5
2004 77,800 1.2
2005 78,000 0.3
2006 78,500 0.6
2007 78,800 0.4
2008 79,300 0.6
2009 80,300 1.2
Average annual growth rate 0.6
(Source: Statistics New Zealand)
Figure 1.
Estimated Resident Population of Palmerston North City
81,000
80,000
79,000
78,000
Population
77,000
76,000
75,000
74,000
73,000
72,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3.2 Population Projections
3.2.1 In 2009 Statistics New Zealand produced revised Subnational Population
Projections to the year 2031 based on the 2006 census. The revised growth
projections have been increased from the earlier projections. This increase is
mostly due to the ongoing increase in the fertility rate. The projections include
three alternative population projection series (designated low, medium and
high) for each local authority incorporating different fertility, mortality and
migration assumptions reflecting each area's unique socio-demographic
characteristics.
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3.2.2 The three projection scenarios are based on the following national population
assumptions:
• Low population growth – low fertility rate (1.7), high mortality rate (medium
life expectancy in 2061 of 82.6 years for males and 86.2 years for females) and
low net migration (net 5,000 positive annual gain).
• Medium population growth – medium fertility rate (1.9), medium mortality rate
(medium life expectancy in 2061 of 85.6 years for males and 88.7 years for
females) and medium net migration (net 10,000 positive annual gain).
• High population growth – high fertility rate (2.1), low mortality rate (medium
life expectancy in 2061 of 88.6 years for males and 91.2 for females) and high
net migration (net 15,000 positive annual gain).
Table 2.
Palmerston North Population Projections
Population Growth
Projections
Palmerston North City
Projected June
2031 Population
Number
2006 – 2031
Growth
Number
Annual
Average
Growth
%
Low population growth 82,100 3,600 0.2
Medium population growth 94,000 15,500 0.7
High population growth 106,300 27,800 1.2
(Source: Statistics New Zealand)
Figure 2.
110,000
Comparison of Actual and Projected Population Growth in
Palmerston North
105,000
Projected high population growth
100,000
Projected medium population growth
95,000
Projected low population growth
90,000
Actual population growth (estimated)
Number
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
As at 30 June
(Source: Statistics New Zealand)
3.2.3 For the purpose of planning for the future growth of the City, Statistics New
Zealand recommends using the medium projection series, and this is the
approach adopted by PNCC for this residential growth review.
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3.2.4 The medium population growth projection for Palmerston North is average
annual growth of 0.7% between 2006 and 2031. This is only slightly below the
national population growth projection of 0.8% per annum. Nationally, the
projections show further growth in the concentration of population in the
Auckland region, which is projected to account for 62% of national population
growth between 2006 and 2031. The Bay of Plenty is the only region, apart
from Auckland, which is projected to rise at a faster rate than the national
average growth rate.
3.2.5 The Manawatu-Wanganui region is projected to grow by just 7,600 people over
the period from 2006 to 2031 even though Palmerston North is projected to
increase by 15,500, with population declines projected in three of the seven
local authorities in the region.
Table 3.
Medium Population Growth Projections for Manawatu-Wanganui Region
Territorial Authority
Census
Population
(2006)
Projected
Population
(2031)
2006 – 2031
change
(number)
Annual
Average
growth
Ruapehu District 14,000 11,000 -3,000 -1.0%
Wanganui District 43,800 40,300 -3,500 -0.3%
Rangitikei District 15,100 12,800 -2,300 -0.7%
Manawatu District 29,000 32,700 3,700 0.5%
Palmerston North City 78,500 94,000 15,500 0.7%
Tararua District 18,100 16,500 -1,600 -0.4%
Horowhenua District 30,600 29,500 -1,100 -0.1%
Manawatu-Wanganui
Region
229,400 236,900 7,500 0.1%
(Note: the boundary for the Manawatu-Wanganui region does not match precisely with the area covered by the
local authorities above)
(Source: Statistics New Zealand)
3.2.6 These figures demonstrate the relative strength of projected growth in
Palmerston North, and the City’s increasing significance as a regional centre.
3.2.7 This message is reinforced by comparison to other Cities. The only major urban
areas outside the Auckland region which are projected to grow at a higher rate
than Palmerston North are Whangarei, Tauranga, Hamilton, Kapiti Coast and
Wellington. Growth rates in Hastings, New Plymouth, Rotorua, Lower Hutt and
Dunedin are expected to be much weaker than for Palmerston North. This is
shown in Table 4.
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Table 4. Medium Population Growth Projections for Selected Territorial
Authorities
Territorial Authority Census
Population
(2006)
Projected
Population
(2031)
2006 – 2031
increase
(number)
Annual
Average
growth
Tauranga 106,700 155,300 48,400 1.5%
Hamilton 134,400 181,700 437,300 1.2%
Kapiti Coast 47,500 60,900 13,400 1.0%
Wellington 187,700 238,700 51,000 1.0%
Whangarei 76,500 92,800 16,300 0.8%
Palmerston North 78,500 94,000 15,500 0.7%
Christchurch 361,800 424,000 62,200 0.6%
Hastings 73,200 80,500 7,300 0.4%
New Plymouth 71,100 76,000 4,900 0.3%
Dunedin 122,300 129,700 7,400 0.2%
Lower Hutt 101,300 105,100 3,800 0.1%
Rotorua 68,100 69,800 1,700 0.1%
Napier 56,800 58,000 1,200 0.1%
(Source: Statistics New Zealand)
3.3 Household projections
Statistics New Zealand Subnational Family and Household Projections
2001 - 2021
3.3.1 In July 2009, Statistics New Zealand released updated subnational household
growth projections. These came too late for incorporation in the PNCC
Residential Growth Review Issues and Options paper (July 2009), which
instead relied on earlier projections (published by Statistics New Zealand on 27
October 2005). The revised projections indicate that there will be an additional
1,000 households over the previous figures in Palmerston North by 2021. This
is mainly due to an ongoing increase in the fertility rate.
3.3.2 Palmerston North City’s estimated number of households totalled 29,600 at 30
June 2006, an increase of 2,900 from 1996 (an average annual increase of
1.0%). Table 5 shows the revised projected household growth under the low,
medium, and high series up to 2031.
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Table 5. Projected Households of Palmerston North Area
Change
Palmerston North City : 1996 – 2031 (2006 base) 2006–2031
Series 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Number %
High 32,200 34,800 37,500 40,300 43,200 13,600 1.5
Medium 26,700 28,000 29,600 31,500 33,400 35,200 37,100 38,900 9,300 1.1
Low 30,800 31,900 32,900 33,900 34,700 5,100 0.6
Source: Statistics New Zealand (Subnational Family and Household Projections (2006 (Base) – 2031) - released in July 2009)
3.3.3 Table 6 provides information relating to projected families and households by
type under the medium series for Palmerston North City. The average
household size is set to decline from 2.6 to 2.3 between 2006 and 2031 - the
average household size for all of New Zealand is 2.6. The family household is
by far the most common household type for both Palmerston North City and all
of New Zealand– accounting for 71% of all New Zealand households in 2006
and 68% of households in Palmerston North.
3.3.4 The number of couples without children is projected to increase by 4,100
between 2006 and 2031, an average annual increase of 1.6%. The number of
families with children will be unchanged between 2006 and 2031 but oneparent
families will continue to increase while the number of two-parent families
is projected to decline. There is an increasing number of couples choosing not
to have or unable to have children or choosing to have children later in life.
There will be even stronger growth in the number of older couples who no
longer have dependant children living at home.
3.3.5 One-person households in the city are projected to record the strongest growth
between 2006 and 2031, increasing by 4,700 between 2006 and 2031, an
annual average growth rate of 2.0%. One-person households will account for a
greater share of households in 2031 compared with 2006, increasing from 24%
of total households in 2006 to 31% by 2031.
3.3.6 The reduction in average household size means that the number of households
is projected to grow at a faster rate to 2031 than the population – 1.1% per year
under the medium growth projection, compared to 0.7% for population growth.
Table 6.
Year
at 30
June
Projected Families and Households by Type (Medium Series) for
Palmerston North City : 2006 (base) – 2031
Family Type
Couple
without
children Two-parent One-parent Total Family
Household Type
Other multiperson
One-person Total
Average
Household
Size
2006 8,400 8,000 4,400 20,800 20,200 2,200 7,200 29,600 2.6
2011 9,300 7,900 4,600 21,700 21,200 2,400 8,000 31,500 2.5
2016 10,200 7,600 4,800 22,600 22,100 2,500 8,800 33,400 2.5
2021 11,100 7,300 5,000 23,500 22,900 2,500 9,800 35,200 2.4
2026 11,900 7,100 5,300 24,200 23,700 2,600 10,800 37,100 2.4
2031 12,500 6,900 5,500 24,900 24,300 2,700 11,900 38,900 2.3
Average
annual
growth
rate
2006 -
2031
1.6% -0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 2.0% 1.1%
Source: Statistics New Zealand (Subnational Family and Household Projections (2006 (Base) – 2031) - released in July 2009)
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3.3.7 Table 7 and Figure 3 summarise information relating to projected population
and household change within Palmerston North City up to 2031. Population
growth is expected to slow over the period but the household growth rate is not
expected to change because of the significant growth in the number of older
people and smaller household sizes. It is also interesting to note that one of
the major trends in house building relates to larger average house sizes, while
the household trend is to less people living in the average household.
Table 7.
Projected Population and Household Change
Period Population Change Household Change
Number
Average
annual %
Growth
Number
Average
annual %
Growth
2001-2006 (actual) 3,300 0.9 1,600 1.1
2006-2011 4,100 1.0 1,900 1.3
2011-2016 3,200 0.7 1,900 1.2
2016-2021 3,000 0.7 1,800 1.1
2021-2026 2,700 0.6 1,900 1.1
2026-2031 2,500 0.5 1,800 1.0
Source: Statistics NZ medium series of subnational population, family and household
projections, 2006 (base) – 2031 update, released July 2009.
Figure 3.
Actual and Projected Population and Household Change
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2001-2006
(actual)
2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031
Population Change
Household Change
(Source: Statistics New Zealand)
3.3.8 The latest projections for household growth in the city are significantly stronger
than the previous projections released by Statistics New Zealand in 2005. The
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2005 medium projections were for household numbers to increase by 322
households annually but the 2009 projections suggest an annual average
increase of 372 households, 16% higher than the earlier projections.
3.3.9 Table 8 shows the year by year projections based on Statistics New Zealand
medium growth series for household growth over the period from 2010 to 2031.
These figures form the basis for modelling future housing land requirements.
Table 8. Projected Household Growth 2010 - 2031
Year
Annual
Household
Additions
Projected
Household
Numbers
Year
Annual
Household
Additions
Projected
Household
Numbers
2010 385 31,110 2021 368 35,201
2011 390 31,500 2022 372 35,573
2012 371 31,871 2023 376 35,949
2013 376 32,247 2024 380 36,328
2014 380 32,627 2025 384 36,712
2015 384 33,011 2026 388 37,100
2016 389 33,400 2027 353 37,454
2017 352 33,752 2028 357 37,810
2018 356 34,109 2029 360 38,170
2019 360 34,469 2030 363 38,534
2020 364 34,832 3031 367 38,900
(note: year on year figures may not tally due to
rounding)
Total growth 2010-2031 8,175
Average annual additions 2010-
2031 372
3.4 Residential preferences and future demand
3.4.1 Residential development in Palmerston North may be classified under three
categories. These are:
• Greenfield – New houses built on previously undeveloped land zoned for
residential development.
• Infill – Houses built on land subdivided in the existing urban area.
• Rural / Rural-residential – All residential development in the rural zone.
Includes “Lifestyle” blocks, generally of around 1-4 Ha.
3.4.2 Over the 10 year period from 1999 (start) to 2008 (end), residential dwelling
preferences (based on Councils ‘Urban and City Wide Residential Dwelling
Growth Monitoring Reports’) were as follows:
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Table 9. New Dwelling Units by Development Type 2000-2009
Year Ended
(December)
Building
Consents
(Authorised) Greenfield Infill
Rural/Rural-
Residential
2000 215 123 (57%) 58 (27%) 34 (16%)
2001 242 138 (57%) 71 (29%) 33 (14%)
2002 281 151 (54%) 84 (30%) 46 (16%)
2003 318 168 (53%) 100 (31%) 50 (16%)
2004 397 241 (61%) 107 (27%) 49 (12%)
2005 347 221 (64%) 95 (27%) 31 (9%)
2006 379 243 (64%) 93 (25%) 43 (11%)
2007 257 151 (59%) 92 (36%) 14 (5%)
2008 180 96 (53%) 56 (31%) 28 (16%)
2009 187 115 (61%) 49 (26%) 23 (12%)
Average
2000-2009 280 165 (59%) 81 (29%) 35 (12%)
Source: PNCC annual building consent monitoring data
3.4.3 Applying the 10 year average preference to the projected household growth
data gives the following projected requirements for lots in the three categories.
Table 10. Projected Residential Preference 2010 - 2031
Average Lots per
year
Total lots 2010-2031
Total 100% 372 8,175*
Greenfield 59% 219 4,823
Infill 29% 108 2,731
Rural / Rural Residential 12% 45 981
*Note: this total is not simply 20 x the lots per year. This is because the average is a linear 20 year
average, whereas the actual projected growth rate varies non-linearly over time (see Table 7)
3.5 Providing for growth
3.5.1 The focus of this residential growth review is on providing land to enable the
growth of the City via greenfield land development. Based on forecast growth,
and the continuation of recent trends in residential preference, the projections
indicate a requirement for 4,823 greenfield residential lots over the period to the
end of 2031. If this development proceeds in a typical suburban form at around
750 m 2 per lot, and with an allowance of 15% for roading and reserves, then
this gives an indicative land requirement in the region of 425 Ha to supply
sufficient residential land for the period 2010 to 2031 (inclusive), or an average
of 19.3 Ha per year.
3.5.2 As at the end of 2009, the City had a total greenfield landbank of 159 Ha. The
number of greenfield building consents authorised in 2009 recovered
somewhat to 114 from 96 in 2008, having fallen during the recession from 151
in 2007 and 243 in 2006. This means that the residential growth strategy needs
to identify in the order of 266 Ha of additional land.
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4 Objectives for Residential Growth
4.1.1 On 17 December 2008 the Council adopted a set of objectives to guide the
review of the residential growth strategy. These objectives cover the issues that
the Council considers need to be addressed in the review. The Councils top
priorities are to avoid locations susceptible to flood risk or which would entail
the loss of significant quantities of high class agricultural land. The full set of
objectives is set out in Table 11.
Table 11.
Urban Growth Objectives
Objective
Ranking
Environmental Objectives
1.
2.
Flood risk: Avoid development in flood-risk areas,
unless the risk is minor and can be effectively
mitigated
Soils: Avoid development which would result in the
loss of significant areas of high class (1 and 2) soils
Highest (priority 1)
Highest (priority 1)
3. Biodiversity (a): Avoid development which would
result in the loss of significant habitats
4. Biodiversity (b): Encourage development which
creates or enhances habitats, especially green
corridors
5. Sustainable transport: Encourage development
which is close to and well linked to the city and its
facilities, with a variety of public and private transport
alternatives.
6. Inter-zone compatibility: Avoid development in areas
where reverse sensitivity would be a problem
Significant (priority 2)
Significant (priority 2)
Significant (priority 2)
Important (priority 3)
Economic objectives
7. Minimise infrastructure costs: Encourage
development in area(s) with lowest infrastructure
costs.
8. Compact city: Encourage development which is
close to and well linked to the city and its facilities
9. Traffic congestion: Encourage development in
area(s) which have least adverse effects on the
roading network capacity
10. Ensure new residential development supports
existing business areas: Encourage development
which is close to and well linked to the city and its
facilities
Important (priority 3)
Significant (priority 2)
Important (priority 3)
Significant (priority 2)
Social / cultural objectives
11. Mana whenua cultural heritage: Acknowledge and
promote the active protection of places of cultural
heritage value identified by mana whenua
12. Accessibility: Encourage development which is close
to and well linked to the city and its facilities
Significant (priority 2)
Significant (priority 2)
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13. Housing choice: Encourage development in area(s)
which would enable diversity in the city's housing
stock
14. Local facilities: Encourage development in areas
which enhance the vitality of existing social
infrastructure (e.g. schools, health, community,
leisure facilities)
15. Distinctive local communities: Encourage
development in area(s) which would be conducive to
creating a local sense of identity
Important (priority 3)
Important (priority 3)
Important (priority 3)
4.1.2 The Council has used these objectives to assess the relative merits of the site
options based on information and evidence gathered during the consultation
exercise.
4.1.3 When the Council adopted these objectives it also passed the following
resolution:
Resolution 163-08
“That having regard to Clause 84-08 Urban Growth Review: Objectives from
the Planning and Policy Committee on 24 November 2008 where highest
priority was given to avoiding high class soils and serious flood risk areas,
Council resolves that the development of an Urban Growth Strategy and the
review of the District Plan should interpret this priority to mean that:
• urban growth should mainly occur on high terrace soils described on
maps compiled by JD Cowie, DSIR, 1976, as Marton, Milson and/or
Tokomaru soils.
• urban growth should not normally occur on “recent soils of the river
flats” or on “gleyed recent and gley soils of the river flats” (Cowie map,
1976, per Dr Hughe Wilde, Landcare Research Ltd)
• any departure from these principles should be only by explicit resolution
of the Council having regard to the specific circumstances of an
individual case.”
4.1.4 Detailed soil survey work has been undertaken for the preferred areas. Soil
maps relating to soils quality and land availability are included at the back of
this document (maps 3-6). The findings are summarised under the
consideration of site options in section 5.3 of this document.
4.1.5 The final part of the resolution allows the Council to consider the specific
attributes of other areas and to contemplate urban development if it is
considered justified in the particular circumstances of the case.
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5 Potential Locations For Future Residential Growth
5.1.1 The Council identified 18 potential site options for future residential growth.
These sites included all areas which have been examined in previous growth
studies and other sites that Council considered to have potential for
development that warranted further investigation.
5.1.2 The full list of site options that have been considered is:
1. Racecourse
2. Anders Road
3. Te Matai
4. Kelvin Grove
5. Hendersons
6. Ashhurst North
7. Ashhurst South
8. Fitzherbert East
9. Pahiatua Track East
10. Pahiatua Track West
11. Polson Hill
12. Staces Road
13. Old West Road
14. Keebles
15. Kahuterawa East
16. Kahuterawa West
17. Linton East
18. Linton
5.1.3 These sites are shown on map 1 at the back of this document.
5.1.4 Each of the sites was subject to a preliminary assessment to correlate issues
identified in previous urban growth studies with the Council’s new urban growth
objectives. The results of this exercise were tabulated in the Issues and
Options Discussion Document (July 2009). These preliminary assessments
were used as a starting point for community and stakeholder consultation.
5.2 Consultation
5.2.1 The Discussion Document was prepared for public and stakeholder
consultation. The Discussion Document contained a number of questions that
were designed to provide a framework for feedback. While the questions were
provided as a guide, comments on matters outside of the questions were also
welcomed. A feedback form was included with the Discussion Document, but
the community and stakeholders were welcomed to provide feedback in
whatever form they wished.
5.2.2 The consultation period was formally initiated with an article in the Manawatu
Standard on Monday 27 July 2009. The official deadline for feedback on the
residential growth areas was Friday 21 August 2009. Any comments received
after this date, and before the finalising of the Consultation Report on 8
September 2009, were also included.
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Consultation Methods
5.2.3 A variety of consultation methods was used to consult on the various residential
growth options. This is discussed in more detail below.
Brochure
5.2.4 A summary information brochure was produced outlining the project, presenting
the various growth options, and identifying key features and matters to consider
for each option.
Open days
5.2.5 Five open days were held at the following venues:
• Whakarongo School on Monday 10 August 2009;
• Aokautere School on Thursday 13 August 2009;
• City Library, Palmerston North on Saturday 15 August 2009;
• Ashhurst Village and Valley Centre on Monday 17 August 2009; and
• Palmerston North Convention Centre on Wednesday 19 August 2009.
5.2.6 Steady attendance was experienced at all open days. Discussions with those
attending the open days were valuable for gaining a better understanding of
local issues.
Landowner & Stakeholder Meetings
5.2.7 All key stakeholders were sent a letter outlining the project, advertising the
open days, including a copy of the brochure, and inviting comments.
Consultation Outcomes
5.2.8 A total of 74 responses were received to the Residential Growth Review
Discussion Document. The main conclusions that arose through consultation
were as follows:
• Submitters have generally expressed a preference for Council led re-zoning of
sites, rather than a reliance on the market to subdivide and develop land.
• Submitters were divided on whether or not Council should limit development of
new residential areas to encourage more infill in the existing urban area. Infill
was promoted for its economic benefits, but those opposed were concerned
primarily with effects on residential character and overcrowding.
• The majority of submitters expressed a preference for a number of smaller
growth areas rather than a single larger area.
• The majority of submitters agreed with the Residential Growth Objectives
proposed by Council. Requested changes were generally in regards to priority
rankings.
• The majority of submitters agreed with Council’s presumption that residential
growth should be located on lower quality soils given the value of retaining high
quality soils for food production. Those opposed to this presumption considered
the protection of high class soils around Palmerston North to not be significant
in terms of the bigger picture, and noted that residents also value good soils for
gardens, green areas and for growing their own vegetables.
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• Submitters suggested that Council explore a co-operative approach with the
Manawatu District to include possible growth areas just beyond the Palmerston
North boundary, as alternative residential growth sites to consider.
• Submitters were divided in whether or not residential growth areas should be
used for other uses such as rural residential/lifestyle. Those in support
considered that areas more distant from the city centre may be more suitable
as rural residential areas. Those opposed to rural residential subdivision noted
that it is a less sustainable and efficient use of land.
• The residential growth option most preferred by submitters was Kelvin Grove,
followed by Hendersons and Ashhurst North. A number of submitters
expressed a preference for infill, alternative sites (predominantly within the
Manawatu District), or specified criteria for selection rather than identifying a
preferred location.
• Submitters noted the need for a holistic approach, taking into account existing
infrastructure and transport systems, the possibility of a second bridge across
the Manawatu River and the nature of existing development in the vicinity of
growth areas.
• Submitter opinion on the suitability of the Racecourse and Anders Road
areas was divided, with those in support noting that these sites have good
linkages to the City and would be relatively cheap to develop given flat
topography and proximity to services. Those opposed to these growth areas
were concerned about their flood potential, loss of high class soils, and
potential reverse sensitivity effects.
• The majority of submitters were opposed to development of the Te Matai area.
Primary concerns were with flood risk and loss of high class soils. Other
concerns were with reverse sensitivity effects from aircraft, gravel extraction
and possible wind farm noise.
• Submitters generally expressed support for development in the Kelvin Grove
area, given the extent of Class III land classification and proximity to existing
residential areas. Those opposed noted that this area is relatively distant from
the Central City and employment areas, and has reverse sensitivity issues
associated with the railway line and proximity to the Palmerston North
International Airport.
• Submitters were generally in support or neutral with regards to development in
the Hendersons area. Those in support noted that soils are not of high value
for food production and the area already has significant subdivision activity.
Those opposed considered it too distant from the City Centre and existing
facilities, as well as having some reverse sensitivity concerns.
• Submitters were generally in support or neutral with regards to development in
the Ashhurst North area. Those in support noted that soils are not of high
value for food production, this area is a natural extension to the existing
Ashhurst area, and landowners have expressed support for its development.
Those opposed consider it too distant from the City Centre and note it would
create a separate satellite township, with commuting required to employment
and advanced education.
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• The majority of submitters were opposed or neutral with regards to the
development of Ashhurst South. Arguments in support of Ashhurst South
were generally consistent with those of Ashhurst North, but submitters
expressed greater concern for safety and community fragmentation, given that
the State Highway separates this area from the Ashhurst Township.
• Submitters were generally opposed or neutral with regards to development of
the Fitzherbert East area given its isolation from the Central City, difficulty and
expense with providing infrastructure, flood risk and potential reverse sensitivity
issues. The high terrace is generally considered more suitable for development
than the lower terrace.
• Submitters were generally opposed or neutral with regards to development of
the Pahiatua Track East area given its poor accessibility to the City, difficulty
with providing services, and potential reverse sensitivity issues with current
farming and rural residential development in the area. This area is generally
considered to be more suitable for rural residential development.
• Submitters are generally opposed or neutral to development of the Pahiatua
Track West area for the same reasons identified in the Pahiatua Track East
option above.
• Submitters were fairly evenly divided over whether or not Polson Hill is a
suitable residential growth area. Those in favour noted that the area has
already been developed for lifestyle reasons and has good accessibility to
Massey University and the City. Those opposed consider it to be too far from
the Central City and note reverse sensitivity issues and difficulties with
providing services. This area is generally considered to be more suitable for
rural residential development.
• Support for the development of Staces Road is conditional on the construction
of a second bridge in this area to improve access. Submitters are generally
opposed to development of this area, noting the flood risk and loss of Class I
agricultural land.
• The majority of submitters were neutral with regards to the development of Old
West Road, with those in support or opposition evenly divided. Those in
support note that it is in close proximity to Massey University and the City. A
number of submitters sought more information on Massey University’s view
with regards to development in this area, as without the sale of Massey
University land this is not a viable option.
• Submitters were generally opposed or neutral with regards to development of
the Keebles area. As with Old West Road, submitters wanted more information
on the potential effect on Massey University, and also Linton Military Camp’s
view of proximity to weapons firing. Concern was also raised with proximity to
Keebles Bush and possible effects on biodiversity. Those in support noted that
the soils are not valuable for food production, and this area is relatively close to
the City.
• Submitters were generally opposed or neutral with regard to the development
of the Kahuterawa East option. Those in support noted that the soils are not of
high value, and consider this area suitable for rural residential development.
Those opposed were most concerned with the topography and lifestyle nature
of the area. This area is generally considered to be a possible site for future
development; once more suitable sites have been developed.
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• Slightly more support has been expressed for the Kahuterawa West option
than Kahuterawa East, as there are some flat areas that would be easier to
develop. Those opposed or neutral expressed similar arguments as for the
Kahuterawa East option, considering the area to be more suitable for rural
residential or recreation uses, or as part of a longer term option.
• The majority of submitters were neutral or opposed to the development of the
Linton East and Linton residential growth options. The main concerns raised
for both growth options were in regards to proximity to the Linton Military Camp,
and potential reverse sensitivity effects associated with development in this
area, including proximity to the Manawatu Prison, New Zealand
Pharmaceuticals and the transmission lines. Other concerns included distance
to the City Centre. Those in support of development in these residential growth
areas noted that the soils are not of high value for food production and the
terrain is flat and is therefore ideal for housing.
5.3 Summary Evaluation
5.3.1 Following consultation, each of the site options was assessed against Council’s
15 growth objectives in order to identify the most suitable site or sites to
accommodate growth. Evaluation involved:
• Reviewing the summary of information relating to the characteristics of each
site in relation to the objective.
• Identification of positive and negative aspects of the site in relation to each
objective.
• A conclusions and overall rating was given for each objective. Ratings were
given in two parts – positive or negative; and low, medium or high impact.
• Each of the objective ratings was entered into a summary table for that
residential growth option.
• Overall conclusions and recommendations on site potential were written for
each site option.
5.3.2 The outcome of the evaluation was that the sites at Anders Road, Kelvin
Grove and Racecourse were recommended as the preferred options for
development.
5.3.3 This recommendation was approved by the Planning and Policy Committee on
2 November 2009 and subsequently confirmed by Council. This decision was
subject to the sites’ suitability being proven via more detailed feasibility studies.
These studies were commissioned to examine flood risk, soil quality and
infrastructure provision.
5.3.4 The overall conclusions on site potential for each of the 18 residential growth
options are summarised as follows, with the preferred options considered first.
The full assessment documentation was included with the papers for the
Planning and Policy Committee on 2 November 2009, and copies are available
on request. The considerations below also include the findings of the feasibility
studies for the preferred site options.
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Anders Road (Preferred option)
5.3.5 Overall this site is considered to have the greatest potential to develop a
compact and sustainable extension to the City. This growth option is one of the
closest to the existing urban area and is well connected to facilities along
Pioneer Highway and the City Centre. There is clear scope to extend the
dedicated cycle / walkway which runs alongside Pioneer Highway, thus
creating active transport options for residents. There is also excellent scope to
apply urban design principles, via a structure planning process, to maximise
quality of life for residents, ensure environmental sensitivity, and create green
corridors and open space. For example, there is an ideal opportunity to
enhance the environment of the Mangaone Stream to create a green corridor
linking southwards to the environs of the Manawatu River and Esplanade.
Flood risk assessment
5.3.6 The feasibility studies for this site included flood risk assessments relating to
risks arising from the Mangaone Stream, Manawatu River and on site
stormwater run off.
5.3.7 In terms of stormwater, the report 1 considers the nature of the drainage
patterns on the land in its existing form, without consideration of development
impacts. The conclusion is that there are no serious issues, although care will
need to be taken to avoid increasing run-off into the Taonui Basin. This implies
careful design of stormwater detention areas, and diversion of flows to the
Manawatu River.
5.3.8 The study of existing drainage patterns will enable development to be planned
to work around the natural flows to the maximum possible extent, which reflects
current best practice. Subsequent modelling will need to be undertaken as
structure plan designs are progressed.
5.3.9 Further modelling has been undertaken in regard to risks from the Mangaone
Stream and Manawatu River 2 . This work concludes that there is no risk from
the River, but that there are some matters associated with the Mangaone
Stream which need to be addressed prior to any development.
5.3.10 The report identifies two issues regarding the Anders Road (and the
Racecourse site) which need to be addressed - neither of which are considered
to raise serious consequences for the development potential of these areas.
5.3.11 The first issue is the existence of a low point on the true right bank of the
Mangaone Stream, immediately south of Pioneer Highway. At this point, the
modelling indicates that the bank would be overtopped in a flood event by
around 300mm - although revised modelling may raise this to around 700mm.
It would be quite practical to alleviate this problem by raising the level of the
land in this location, probably by around 1 metre, and that this would be an
acceptable solution to Horizons Regional Council.
5.3.12 The second issue relates to a possible stop bank breach scenario. This has
been modelled, but the risk is considered to be low, especially given the flow
limitations in the Mangaone imposed by the Milson spillways. The risk would
need to be addressed by geotechnical examination of the stopbank and any
1 Barnett & MacMurray - July 2010; Palmerston North City Council – Flood Risk in Potential Growth
Areas
2 River Edge Consulting Ltd – August 2010: Flood Risk of Palmerston North City Growth Areas (draft)
- 25 -

necessary remedial works necessary to ensure its integrity. However, even in
the event of a breach, the flows would be relatively shallow (i.e. less than 0.5
metres) and slow flowing over most of the site - an exception being an area at
the extreme north west corner, where land would need to be reserved as a
ponding area. Any residual risk from the breach scenario can be managed by
appropriate drainage design – the recommendation is that this is acheived by
designing roads to have a dual function as drainage channels.
Soil quality survey
5.3.13 In order to establish soil quality, Agresearch was commissioned to undertake a
detailed survey of all the preferred growth area options.
5.3.14 For the Anders Road site the survey found that 9% of the area comprises Land
Use Capability (LUC) class 1 soils. A further 34% is recognised as good LUC
class 2 soils which would respond well to drainage. The balance, 57% of the
land area, comprises lower end class 2 soils which have wetness limitations.
There are pockets of lower class (LUC 3) soils, which are poorly drained,
dispersed throughout the area.
5.3.15 Although the majority of soils in this area are identified as high class, the actual
availability for agricultural production is limited by existing development, largely
of a rural residential nature. The survey found that only 49% of the land
remains available for commercial cropping. Furthermore the proliferation of
rural residential development means there are limitations on the potential to
improve drainage of the land, owing to land access and maintenance issues,
together with the inclusions of class 3 land.
Summary
5.3.16 On balance, the advantages of this site on the quality, sustainability, and
efficiency of development are considered to outweigh the loss of predominantly
lower quality Class II land, particularly when the more freely draining class 1
and 2 soils at Te Matai and other riverside areas are available.
5.3.17 As the topography is relatively flat, a high housing yield and variety of housing
stock would be possible. Relatively low infrastructure costs would also allow
greater housing choice, and allow for more affordable housing. There is strong
developer interest in part of this site, as shown by the current Private Plan
Change application with Council, together with other development interests in
this area. This shows a high likelihood that the site, if identified, would be
developed.
Kelvin Grove (Preferred option)
5.3.18 Approximately 50% of the Kelvin grove site, the northern part of the area, lies
within the flight path and air noise contours associated with Palmerston North
airport.
5.3.19 In principle, it is desirable to avoid intensification of residential development
beneath the air noise contours. There are also safety issues relating to
development beneath the flight path. For these reasons, it is considered that
residential development should be confined to the southern part of the site.
5.3.20 The mid-western part of the site is occupied by the cemetery. There are
additional areas of land identified for future cemetery extensions to the east
and south of the existing cemetery.
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5.3.21 To enable residential development, it would be advantageous to uplift the
existing designations for future cemetery expansion and replace them with an
allocation of land to the north of the cemetery. This would enable around 60 Ha
of land to be released for residential development, out of the airport flight path
and air noise contours.
5.3.22 It is considered that the remaining land beneath the air noise contours may be
best suited to industrial development. This would enable a mix of land-uses,
and give people the opportunity to live close to their workplace, thus reducing
the need to travel. In order to avoid reverse sensitivity issues, residential
development could be excluded to the north of Kelvin Grove Road, and a
reserve designated between the industrial area, and residential development in
the southern portion of the site. This concept will be explored as an option in
the structure planning process.
Flood risk assessment
5.3.23 The flood risk assessment for Kelvin Grove has found that there are no serious
issues. There are a number of local streams and gullies which will require
management, but given the elevation of the land, there is no risk of flooding
from the Manawatu river, except for a very small area at the corner of James
Line and Napier Road, which requires avoidance or mitigation.
Soil quality survey
5.3.24 The soil survey has identified the majority of the land to be LUC class 3 soils
(Marton and Milson silt loams), with poor drainage and relatively low fertility.
However, there are 21 Ha of LUC class 2 soils on the lower terrace adjacent to
Napier Road. Given the overall area of the site, it can be reasoned that this
area is not significant.
Summary
5.3.25 The Kelvin Grove area is considered as a preferred area for development,
subject to residential growth being restricted beneath the air noise contours,
and the cemetery extension designations being relocated to the north of the
existing cemetery. The area beneath the air noise contours may be better
suited for industrial development.
Racecourse (preferred option)
5.3.26 This site has a number of significant advantages. In particular its location in
close proximity to the City centre, and good connectivity potential means that it
is one of the few growth area options that could enable development of a non
car dependant community.
Flood risk assessment
5.3.27 Flood risk has been modelled for on site stormwater runoff and in relation to the
risk of inundation from the Mangaone Stream and Manawatu River.
5.3.28 The stormwater assessment indicates that most run-off would be to the west of
the site. As for the Anders Road area, this would need to be detained and
diverted to the Manawatu River.
5.3.29 There is no risk of flooding from the Manawatu River, as the floodplain in this
stretch of the river lies on the opposite bank. The river bank at the Racecourse
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side is an elevated terrace. The modelling indicates, however, that the
Mangaone Stream may overtop the true right bank just south of Pioneer
Highway. The level of overtopping is minimal, however, and readily managed
(see paragraph 5.3.11 above).
Soil quality survey
5.3.30 The soil survey has found that the majority of the Racecourse area (90%)
comprises either elite (class 1) or class 2 soils. The elite (class 1) Manawatu
soils occur extensively over the southern part of the site, towards the
Manawatu River and adjacent to the Mangaone Stream.
5.3.31 As with the Anders Road area, there is extensive subdivision, which reduces
the effective availability of land for productive use. The survey finds that only
43% of the land remains in parcels of a size able to accommodate productive
agricultural use. However, most of the larger land parcels coincide with the
highest quality soils to the south of the site.
Summary
5.3.32 It is considered that the majority of the Racecourse site, comprising elite quality
productive land in the southern part of the site, should be excluded from
development in light of Council’s desire to preserve high class soils.
5.3.33 However, it is desirable to develop the northern margin of this site in
conjunction with the Anders Road site. This would give balanced development
on either side of Pioneer Highway and maximise the potential to achieve good
connectivity. It would also maximise the efficiency of investment in
infrastructure for Anders Road. It should be noted that Pioneer Highway in this
location is currently state highway under the control of the New Zealand
Transport Agency, but it should be brought under control of the City Council in
order to facilitate planning and development, and enable appropriate
connectivity to Pioneer Highway.
5.3.34 As the topography is relatively flat, a high housing yield and variety of housing
stock would be possible, as in the case of the Anders Road site.
5.3.35 This area includes a site of known cultural heritage significance, located
immediately south of the Pioneer Highway adjacent to the Mangaone stream.
Further discussions with local iwi will be required to ensure appropriate
treatment of this site, recognising and protecting existing significant values.
5.3.36 There is strong landowner and developer interest in this site. Initial
investigations for a private plan change request have been undertaken at this
site, but a formal plan change request has not yet been lodged with Council.
The landowner interest shows a high likelihood that the site will be developed.
Option 3 – Te Matai
5.3.37 The high level of flood risk, and the costs of associated flood protection works
are considered to render this site unsuitable for further consideration,
notwithstanding that it would perform well in terms of accessibility and proximity
to the existing urban area. The fact that development would involve the loss a
significant area of high class soils, comprising the City’s primary existing active
market gardening area, also weighs against the site.
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Option 5 – Hendersons
5.3.38 This site is not suitable as a major residential growth node given the site
constraints, existing levels of rural residential development, and the high
infrastructure costs. The existing topography limits the potential yield from this
site. The site is remote from the City and its facilities. This site would be an
isolated node with high car dependency.
5.3.39 Localised flooding risk can be managed through flood protection works,
although careful stormwater management is required to avoid additional water
flowing to the Taonui Basin.
Option 6A - Ashhurst North – City Growth
5.3.40 This growth area is considerable distance from the City, making it an
unsustainable option for City growth. While part of the area is known to have
some flooding issues, these could be managed through flood protection works.
The infrastructure costs vary between the upper and lower terrace, however
good housing yield is possible. However, some land should be identified in
Ashhurst North for natural growth of Ashhurst Village in the future. The exact
size of the area required is under investigation. Development in this area would
help to maintain the vitality of local businesses.
Option 6B – Ashhurst North – Local Growth
5.3.41 Overall this site is remote from Palmerston North but does represent a natural
extension of the Ashhurst Village area to accommodate natural growth over
time. While part of the area is known to have some flooding issues, these can
be managed through flood protection works. Further investigation of the
proposed Horizons stopbank on the left bank is required. The infrastructure
costs vary between the upper and lower terrace, however good housing yield is
able to be obtained. There are limited opportunities for biodiversity
enhancement and sustainable transport given the existing facilities. Some
growth in Ashhurst may rejuvenate the business areas and encourage some
businesses back to Ashhurst.
Option 7A – Ashhurst South – City Growth
5.3.42 Overall this site is remote from Palmerston North making it an unsustainable
option for City growth. The site is also severed from the wider Ashhurst
township by State Highway 3/Napier Road. Significant safety concerns exist
with people accessing local facilities within Ashhurst Village and having to
cross the State Highway. The high infrastructure costs will increase section
prices. The topography of the site would allow for a high housing yield. There
are no special features within the site and being separated from the Ashhurst
Village and the City centre would make establishing a local identity more
difficult. Parts of the area are known to have some flooding issues; however
these could be managed through flood protection works.
Option 7B - Ashhurst South – Local Growth
5.3.43 Overall this site is severed from the wider Ashhurst township by State Highway
3/Napier Road. Development that results in community severance should be
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avoided. Significant safety concerns exist with people accessing local facilities
within Ashhurst Village and having to cross a major obstacle being State
Highway 3. While topography of the site would allow for a high housing yield,
the high infrastructure costs would increase section prices. Areas near the
Ashhurst Stream and the Manawatu River are known to have flooding issues.
There are no special features within the site and being separated from the
Ashhurst Village would make establishing a local identity more difficult. This
site is not considered to be a sustainable extension of Ashhurst.
Option 8 – Fitzherbert East
5.3.44 Overall this site is remote from the City and its facilities. As a result, this site
creates an isolated and car dependent community. The high infrastructure
costs would limit housing choice and create an exclusive community. The
distance between this site and the City makes it an unsustainable option for
City growth. The surrounding rural land uses may create reverse sensitivity
issues for residential development.
Option 9 – Pahiatua Track East
5.3.45 Overall this site is remote from the City and its facilities. As a result, this site
creates an isolated and car dependent community. The high infrastructure
costs, including high transportation costs, would limit housing choice and create
an exclusive community. The topography of the site limits the potential yield
from this site. The localised flood risk could be managed. Reverse sensitivity
issues relating to rural, rural residential uses and the high voltage transmission
lines are of concern.
Option 10 – Pahiatua Track West
5.3.46 The remoteness of this site from the City and its facilities means that this site
scores low on sustainable transport and compact city objectives. The high
infrastructure costs, including high roading costs, due to the topography of the
site, would limit the housing choice, and would likely create a high end
development. The high voltage transmission lines dissect this site and require
buffer areas which would result in a severance of residential development
within the site. The surrounding rural land uses may create reverse sensitivity
issues for residential development.
Option 11 – Polson Hill
5.3.47 There are difficulties in establishing a quality residential area within this site
given that the majority of the area has already been developed for rural
residential purposes. Any future development would need to ensure that the
loss of any significant habitats within the growth area is avoided. The growth
area is remote from the City and its facilities creating a car dependent
community. High infrastructure costs for this site would limit housing yield and
choice. The existing roading network within this site has capacity. The area
has a distinct sense of identity as a rural residential settlement with residents
strongly valuing this existing character. Intensification of residential
development in this growth area would destroy this character.
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Option 12 – Staces Road
5.3.48 Overall this site has significant flood risk from the Manawatu River and would
require extensive flood protection works through stopbanks and / or raising of
the land. The costs of flood protection works will increase section costs and
limit housing choice. Soils in the area are largely elite (LUC class 1), with high
actual value for food production. The surrounding rural land uses may create
reverse sensitivity issues for residential development.
5.3.49 At the time of the issues and options consultation, Horizons Regional Council
indicated strong opposition to development of this site on the grounds of flood
risk. However, this opinion has subsequently changed, with a report dated 9
June 2010 (Lower Manawatu Scheme – City Reach Project Update on Design
and Consent Issues – G S Doull – Senior Design Engineer) contemplating
cutting of the Manawatu river bank and raising of adjacent land to provide flood
protection. Horizons Regional Council has accepted this work as necessary in
order to mitigate increased flood levels in the area as a result of waters diverted
by the upgrade of the Lower Manawatu Flood Protection Scheme.
5.3.50 Whilst flood protection may be achievable, the fact remains that this area
comprises some of the highest quality soils in Palmerston North, and in light of
Council’s priority to preserve such soils, it is considered that this area should
not be identified as a preferred growth location in the Council’s residential
growth strategy.
5.3.51 It should be noted, however, that there has been private interest, for an
extended period of time, in development of this site, including a potential
recreational lake. Should this interest result in a private plan change request,
then Council will consider this on its merits at the time.
Option 13 – Old West Road
5.3.52 Overall this site has significant reverse sensitivity issues, particularly with
Massey University farms and activities, both within and surrounding the site.
High voltage transmission lines dissect the site and there is a substation within
the site requiring a buffer area. This growth area is remote from the City centre
and its facilities, and would create car dependency to access these facilities.
Development of the site would not result in a loss of high class soils.
Infrastructure costs would be high, given the pumping required, and this would
limit the ability to provide housing choice.
Option 14 – Keebles
5.3.53 Overall this site has significant reverse sensitivity issues, with the ecologically
and scientifically significant Keebles Bush where development could impact on
the values of this area. The majority of this site is occupied by Massey Farms.
There is a need to retain a buffer area between any development and Massey
University and AgResearch land. In addition, the New Zealand Defence Force
would oppose residential development on the western part of the site. While
the land is relatively flat and may allow a greater housing yield, the cost of
infrastructure would increase section prices. The land is Class III and therefore
does not contain highly versatile soils. This growth area is remote from the City
and would create a satellite community with high car dependency.
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Option 15 – Kahuterawa East
5.3.54 This site is remote from the City and its facilities and would therefore create car
dependency as people travel to town to access the City and its facilities. This
would also increase the future congestion on Fitzherbert Bridge and Fitzherbert
Avenue. The growth area would not support the compact city or sustainable
transport objectives. The land is Class III and therefore does not contain highly
versatile soils. High infrastructure costs would limit housing choice. Reverse
sensitivity issues exist with the transmission lines which dissect the growth area
and require buffer areas. Development of the growth area may conflict with the
recreational use of the upper Kahuterawa Valley.
Option 16 – Kahuterawa West
5.3.55 This site is remote from the City and its facilities creating a car dependency as
people travel to town to access facilities. This would also increase future
congestion on Fitzherbert Bridge and Fitzherbert Avenue. High infrastructure
costs and broken terrain would limit housing choice. There are pockets of
Class I land near the Kahuterawa Stream, but the majority of the growth area is
Class III. The Kahuterawa Stream has local fishery and spawning significance.
Reverse sensitivity issues with Linton Army Camp exist in relation to air noise
contours for helicopter operations from Linton Army Camp. Growth of this site
does not support the compact city or sustainable transport objectives. Overall
this site is not a sustainable option for City growth.
Option 17 – Linton East
5.3.56 This site is remote from the City and its facilities. There are limited facilities
nearby, with the few that do exist being associated with Linton Army Camp.
The distance from the City centre means that there would be high car
dependency as people travel to town. Anticipated congestion on Fitzherbert
Bridge, Fitzherbert Avenue and at the Massey University entrances would
negatively impact on traffic congestion. The land is Class III and therefore
does not contain highly versatile soils. Relatively flat topography would mean
that a high housing yield is possible, however remoteness from existing
infrastructure would push section prices up. Reverse sensitivity issues would
significantly impact on any residential development in the area. The Army have
stated that they would vigorously oppose development near the Camp.
However other submitters consider that there is demand for affordable housing
in the vicinity of the Camp.
Option 18 – Linton
5.3.57 This site is remote from the City and its facilities. There are limited facilities
nearby, with the few that do exist being associated with Linton Army Camp.
The distance from the City centre means that there would be high car
dependency as people travel to town. Anticipated congestion on Fitzherbert
Bridge, Fitzherbert Avenue and at the Massey University entrances would
negatively impact on traffic congestion. The Railway Line and Transmissions
Lines dissect the growth area and would make it more difficult to achieve a
good urban design. As the topography of the land is relatively flat, this would
enable a high housing yield. However house prices would be more expensive
given the high infrastructure costs. On balance the remoteness of this option
from the City centre and its facilities, the high infrastructure costs and the
reverse sensitivity effects are considered to outweigh the minor flood risk and
Class III land found at this option.
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6 Summary and Next Steps
6.1.1 The review of residential growth options has identified the Anders Road, Kelvin
Grove and Racecourse options to be the most appropriate locations for future
development. These findings were confirmed by Council on 25 November
2009, subject to proving development viability through feasibility studies.
6.1.2 Research has been undertaken regarding flood risk, soil quality, and
infrastructure provision. These studies have confirmed the viability of the
preferred development sites.
6.1.3 The next stages in advancing the development of the preferred areas will be:
• Prepare detailed structure plans to guide development, in consultation with
landowners and other key stakeholders;
• Undertake changes to the District Plan to accommodate the new growth areas.
It is envisaged that the growth areas will be realised via a dedicated section of
the plan – similar to the implementation of the North East Industrial Zone.
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Map 1: 18 potential growth sites examined at issues
and options stage (July 2009)
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Map 2: Preferred growth locations
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Maps 3 and 4:
Soils Maps – Anders Road and Racecourse
(Agresearch 2010)
(Referenced as maps 5 and 9 in Agresearch report, maps depict soil
quality and availability for productive use)
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Map 5 and 6:
Soils Maps – Kelvin Grove
(Agresearch 2010)
(Referenced as maps 6 and 10 in Agresearch report, maps depict soil
quality and availability for productive use)
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