RESIDENTIAL GROWTH STRATEGY - Palmerston North City Council

Table 5. Projected Households of Palmerston North Area
Change
Palmerston North City : 1996 – 2031 (2006 base) 2006–2031
Series 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Number %
High 32,200 34,800 37,500 40,300 43,200 13,600 1.5
Medium 26,700 28,000 29,600 31,500 33,400 35,200 37,100 38,900 9,300 1.1
Low 30,800 31,900 32,900 33,900 34,700 5,100 0.6
Source: Statistics New Zealand (Subnational Family and Household Projections (2006 (Base) – 2031) - released in July 2009)
3.3.3 Table 6 provides information relating to projected families and households by
type under the medium series for Palmerston North City. The average
household size is set to decline from 2.6 to 2.3 between 2006 and 2031 - the
average household size for all of New Zealand is 2.6. The family household is
by far the most common household type for both Palmerston North City and all
of New Zealand– accounting for 71% of all New Zealand households in 2006
and 68% of households in Palmerston North.
3.3.4 The number of couples without children is projected to increase by 4,100
between 2006 and 2031, an average annual increase of 1.6%. The number of
families with children will be unchanged between 2006 and 2031 but oneparent
families will continue to increase while the number of two-parent families
is projected to decline. There is an increasing number of couples choosing not
to have or unable to have children or choosing to have children later in life.
There will be even stronger growth in the number of older couples who no
longer have dependant children living at home.
3.3.5 One-person households in the city are projected to record the strongest growth
between 2006 and 2031, increasing by 4,700 between 2006 and 2031, an
annual average growth rate of 2.0%. One-person households will account for a
greater share of households in 2031 compared with 2006, increasing from 24%
of total households in 2006 to 31% by 2031.
3.3.6 The reduction in average household size means that the number of households
is projected to grow at a faster rate to 2031 than the population – 1.1% per year
under the medium growth projection, compared to 0.7% for population growth.
Table 6.
Year
at 30
June
Projected Families and Households by Type (Medium Series) for
Palmerston North City : 2006 (base) – 2031
Family Type
Couple
without
children Two-parent One-parent Total Family
Household Type
Other multiperson
One-person Total
Average
Household
Size
2006 8,400 8,000 4,400 20,800 20,200 2,200 7,200 29,600 2.6
2011 9,300 7,900 4,600 21,700 21,200 2,400 8,000 31,500 2.5
2016 10,200 7,600 4,800 22,600 22,100 2,500 8,800 33,400 2.5
2021 11,100 7,300 5,000 23,500 22,900 2,500 9,800 35,200 2.4
2026 11,900 7,100 5,300 24,200 23,700 2,600 10,800 37,100 2.4
2031 12,500 6,900 5,500 24,900 24,300 2,700 11,900 38,900 2.3
Average
annual
growth
rate
2006 -
2031
1.6% -0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 2.0% 1.1%
Source: Statistics New Zealand (Subnational Family and Household Projections (2006 (Base) – 2031) - released in July 2009)
- 14 -