Wu Sino US Inadvertent Escalation - Program on Strategic Stability ...

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Wu Sino US Inadvertent Escalation - Program on Strategic Stability ...

!

DF-31/DF-31A 7200/11200 Nuclear, solid Land-mobile

DF-11

DF-15

DF-16?

Conventional,

solid

Conventional,

solid

Conventional,

solid

Land-mobile

Land-mobile

Land-mobile

DH-10

Source:


main site

Cruise missile

forward site

forward site

forward site

launch

site

launch

site

launch

site

launch

site

launch

site

launch

site

launch

site

launch

site

launch

site


Figure 3 Chinese mobile missiles’ deployment pattern

27

The command and control (C2) systems of Chinese missile units. At issue are

two points: 1) overlap of conventional and nuclear C2 infrastructure; 2)

U.S. CPGS and precision guided munitions.

1995/1996-like scenario carries no escalatory risk.

In limited missile campaign, China’s strategic purpose is limited, so U.S.

response would probably also moderate. A tit-for-tat U.S. counterstrike strategy is to

seek and hunt Chinese transporter-erector-launchers (TELs). Locating mobile

missiles is a challenging job.

28

A frequently mentioned case is that during the 1991

Gulf War, while the allies conducted 1,460 strikes against Iraqi Scud missiles, there

! 27 Xie Tao, Wang Minle, Zhong Jianqiang, Fang Qin, “Changgui daodan zhendi peizhi youhua yanjiu” [Research

on Optimal Deployment of Conventional Missile Positions], Xitong fangzhen xuebao, Vol. 21 No. 6 (March,

2009), pp. 1535-1537. Wang Minle, Gao Xiaoguang, “Zhanlue daodan jidong zhendi bushu youhua yanjiu

sheji” [Optimal design of deployment of strategic missile mobile positions], Xitong gongcheng lilun yu shijian,

No. 10 (1999), pp. 94-98.

! 28

! 8

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