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Indigo Shire - renewable energy mapping - Indigo Shire Council

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MAPPING AND BROKERING<br />

LOCAL ENERGY SOLUTIONS<br />

IN INDIGO<br />

Prepared by Earth Systems and Trees Victoria Inc.<br />

for <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> <strong>Council</strong><br />

September 2012


LOCAL ENERGY SOLUTIONS IN<br />

INDIGO SHIRE: RENEWABLE<br />

ENERGY RESOURCE SURVEY<br />

Victoria, Australia<br />

Prepared for<br />

INDIGO SHIRE COUNCIL<br />

By<br />

SEPTEMBER 2012


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

DISTRIBUTION RECORD<br />

Copy No. Company / Position Name<br />

DOCUMENT REVISION LIST<br />

Revision<br />

Status/Number<br />

Revision Date Description of Revision Approved By<br />

RevDRAFT 2 nd July 2012 Draft for Initial Client Feedback Dr John Sanderson<br />

Rev0 7 th Sep 2012 Final Dr Adrian Morphett<br />

This report is not to be used for purposes other than those for which it was intended. Environmental<br />

conditions change with time. The information in this report is based on observations made during site<br />

visits and on the best publically available data at the time of writing. Where this report is to be made<br />

available, either in part or in its entirety, to a third party, Earth Systems reserves the right to review the<br />

information and documentation contained in the report and revisit and update findings, conclusions and<br />

recommendations. Earth Systems does not warrant that this document is definitive nor free from error and<br />

does not accept liability for any loss caused or arising from reliance upon information provided herein.<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 1


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Executive Summary<br />

<strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> has commissioned Earth Systems to provide a broad evaluation of <strong>Shire</strong>-wide <strong>renewable</strong><br />

<strong>energy</strong> options to support the <strong>Shire</strong>’s electrical <strong>energy</strong> needs for the future. The study considers realistic<br />

resource options for a transition to locally-based <strong>energy</strong> generation for the equivalent electrical demands<br />

of 13,000 households out to 2050. This equates to an installed generation capacity of about 13 MW e .<br />

The study constitutes Phase 1 of a 2 part program funded through the Victorian Government’s<br />

Sustainability Accord Programme:<br />

Phase 1 - a survey of <strong>renewable</strong> <strong>energy</strong> resources in the region and development potential;<br />

Phase 2 - a detailed report evaluating the potential of bio<strong>energy</strong> in the region specifically.<br />

This document reports the results of Phase 1 of the study, some findings from which will help to define<br />

the scope of Phase 2.<br />

The objective of Phase 1 was to evaluate in a desktop study the extent of the <strong>renewable</strong> <strong>energy</strong><br />

resources within <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong>, including solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric and biomass resources.<br />

Utilising information on the current state of the relevant technologies, geophysical and topographical data<br />

and other information resources relevant to the <strong>Shire</strong>, the likely cost and technical feasibility of <strong>renewable</strong><br />

<strong>energy</strong> deployment in the <strong>Shire</strong> has been reviewed.<br />

Study Inputs<br />

Key inputs to the study were:<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Electricity grid infrastructure and capacity for embedded generation in and near to the <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Major electricity consumers within or near to the <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Land uses and exclusions which would affect where a new <strong>renewable</strong> <strong>energy</strong> project is located<br />

<strong>Shire</strong>-wide solar data<br />

<strong>Shire</strong>-wide wind data<br />

Geothermal resource review<br />

Hydropower resource review<br />

Waste biomass availability in and near to <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Potential for <strong>energy</strong> cropping within <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong>.<br />

Exclusions<br />

The study did not consider:<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Thermal-only <strong>energy</strong> requirements (although co-generation of electricity and heat has been<br />

discussed with regards to specific industrial sites)<br />

Transport <strong>energy</strong> (eg local fuel production)<br />

Energy efficiency measures.<br />

Resource Data Analysis<br />

The various <strong>renewable</strong> resources available to <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> were analysed in a variety of ways, depending<br />

on the type of <strong>renewable</strong> resource data available and the type of technology to utilise them. In the case<br />

of geothermal and hydropower resources, no detailed resource analysis or modelling was undertaken as<br />

these do not appear to be viable for large-scale generation within the <strong>Shire</strong>. Biomass resources were<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 2


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

analysed based on aggregated data for current land use and available waste streams. Full details of the<br />

resource analyses and data interpretation for wind and solar are provided in the Appendices to this report.<br />

Financial Modelling<br />

As a first-pass assessment of the economics of various <strong>renewable</strong> generation types, the resource data<br />

(where applicable) was used as input to financial models based on currently available generation<br />

technology, to determine typical economic performance of a given <strong>renewable</strong> generator located in the<br />

<strong>Shire</strong>. Models for wind and solar generation were based on nameplate generation at scales of 1.5, 10<br />

and 20 megawatts, to correspond with current (1.5 and 10 MW e ) grid capabilities and a larger-scale plant<br />

possible assuming some future grid capacity increase (20 MW e ). Models for bio<strong>energy</strong> were based on<br />

the scales relevant to current plausible cogeneration sites (Uncle Toby’s and Murray Goulburn), and a<br />

potential single generator equivalent to whole-of-<strong>Shire</strong> demand (13 MW e ).<br />

The specific economic performance for a given scenario was summarised in terms of a Levelised Cost of<br />

Energy (LCOE) expressed in dollars per megawatt hour ($/MWh e ), and an example payback period<br />

based on a grid-connected scenario with Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGC) has been provided.<br />

Note that the non-grid-connected (“islanded” or “behind the fence”) generation scenario was not explicitly<br />

modelled in this report as this is best considered on a specific case-by-case basis. However it is to be<br />

expected that where such an opportunity exists, the economic incentive will be much greater than for a<br />

grid-export arrangement. The LCOE calculated in this report can still be used as a basis for selecting<br />

projects and making investment decisions in either case.<br />

Key Findings:<br />

Key findings of this Phase 1 Study are as follows:<br />

Electricity Grid<br />

The grid in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> is constrained, being fed from a number of out-of-<strong>Shire</strong> zone and terminal<br />

stations. This puts significant limits on the scale of generation which can be installed at any given<br />

location within the <strong>Shire</strong>. Discussions with network operator SP-Ausnet identified that generation into the<br />

grid at approximately the 1 MW e scale may be possible at the main load centres (regional towns and key<br />

industry), namely:<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Chiltern<br />

Beechworth<br />

Yackandandah<br />

Rutherglen<br />

Tangambalanga (Murray Goulburn Dairy Co-op)<br />

Wahgunyah (Uncle Toby’s)<br />

Grid connection of less than 1.5 MW e has less connection infrastructure requirements, (inter-trips are not<br />

mandatory), and may represent a possible “sweet spot” for generator size.<br />

Larger-scale generation (approximately 10 MW e scale) may be possible at several locations just outside<br />

of the <strong>Shire</strong>, namely:<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Barnawartha (Logic Centre)<br />

Wodonga (near sub-station)<br />

Myrtleford (Carter Holt Harvey)<br />

Network constraints at the Wangaratta and Myrtleford substations may be remediated by locating new<br />

generators along these respective network loops, namely:<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 3


Earth Systems<br />

Wahgunyah (on the Wangaratta line)<br />

Rutherglen (on the Wangaratta line)<br />

Myrtleford<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

In certain circumstances, a proposed generator at these locations could negotiate better financial<br />

arrangements with the network operator if network upgrades can be postponed or avoided.<br />

Land Use<br />

An analysis of the location of national and regional parks, areas of cultural significance and mountainous<br />

areas unsuitable for development was undertaken. In general, the North West parts of the <strong>Shire</strong> would<br />

be more favourable for project development than the South East. The North West regions of the <strong>Shire</strong><br />

are also closer to the major load centres.<br />

Renewable Energy – Key Outcomes In Brief<br />

Solar: The technology exists, the resource is good enough, and opportunities exist for grid connection in<br />

the North West. The economics are not compelling at present, but a combination of factors may alter the<br />

economic equation in the short to medium term. The <strong>Shire</strong> should carefully watch the space and develop<br />

a strategy to capitalise on the opportunity for large-scale solar when the economics improve. In the<br />

meantime, generation of less than 100 kW e in Victoria is currently eligible for a recently reduced rate of 8<br />

c/kWh feed-in-tariff. (<strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> may consider facilitating the installation of a number of 99.9 kW e solar<br />

PV systems on suitable roof areas as an immediate form of local generation.)<br />

Wind: Overall, the resource is marginal, but specific low-speed turbines may be able to capitalise on it.<br />

The economics are expected to be very sensitive to actual wind velocity at these low speeds. Payback<br />

periods are, however, better than solar due to lower capital equipment cost and better capacity factor.<br />

Wind data available may not accurately characterise particularly localised, higher-than-average wind<br />

velocity resources peculiar to specific land topography within the <strong>Shire</strong>, and local knowledge should be<br />

evaluated. The <strong>Shire</strong> should also consider engagement opportunities with other regions in which wind<br />

resources are more significant.<br />

Biomass: At present, about 3.4 MW e of generation is possible from the recovery of absolutely all<br />

available waste biomass in the entire <strong>Shire</strong> (including agricultural wastes). Energy crops, waste from<br />

forest fuel reduction, and/or a significant import of biomass from outside the <strong>Shire</strong> would be needed to<br />

provide a significant bio<strong>energy</strong> contribution. Significant (but currently fully utilised) plantation waste<br />

resources exist just beyond <strong>Shire</strong> boundaries, equating to a maximum power generation of about 8.3<br />

MW e . To generate the whole-of-<strong>Shire</strong> target of 13 MW e , an area of approximately 16,100 Ha would be<br />

required under a solid block of short rotation coppice cropping (SCC) scheme. Under an inter-cropping<br />

SCC scenario this would become 132,000 ha. Depending on the scenarios, bio<strong>energy</strong> plant economic<br />

modelling at the small, medium and large generating capacity had LCOEs of 185, 118 and 110 $/MWh e<br />

including electricity and thermal heat sales. Possible co-generation opportunities exist at a number of<br />

sites within the region, including Uncle Toby’s and Murray Goulburn, provided their existing waste<br />

resources could be augmented by additional biomass. These and several other sites are to be addressed<br />

in further detail in Phase 2 of the project.<br />

Geothermal: No significant geothermal resource is indicated in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong>. The existing data is limited,<br />

so the finding should be re-visited in the event that a new dataset for the region is developed.<br />

Hydropower: Large-scale hydro in and near to the <strong>Shire</strong> appears to have been fully exploited. Some<br />

small-scale (e.g. < 1 MW e ) resources exist in the <strong>Shire</strong>, however they are mostly associated with areas of<br />

cultural significance. There may be justification for individual small-scale projects, but these lie outside<br />

the scope of this Study.<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 4


Earth Systems<br />

Suggested Priorities for Decision Making<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Reviewing the variety of resource potentials, generation costs and grid constraints presented in the<br />

preceding sections, it is possible to make some general observations on how a total generation output of<br />

13 MW e may be accomplished within the <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> region.<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

There is little economy of scale benefit in going larger within the range of generation considered,<br />

other than for bio<strong>energy</strong> plant. Therefore, generation scale is likely to be dictated by network<br />

capacity (i.e. largest generator that can be connected without major network infrastructure costs).<br />

There are significant economic benefits in generation resulting in avoided retail power purchase.<br />

There are significant economic benefits in co-generation (possibly even tri-generation) at a given<br />

site.<br />

There may be additional incentives for installing site generation if it avoids the need for the<br />

network operator to undertake other infrastructure upgrades.<br />

Although the resource is marginal, the LCOE of wind means it is an attractive option..<br />

Where substantial cooling loads are present, there may be additional economic benefit in<br />

generating power from solar resources.<br />

If the majority of the biomass is to be purpose-grown (<strong>energy</strong> crops), the same basic generation<br />

equipment type can be used at all sites; and it may be advantageous to use a similar plant size<br />

and/or supplier to achieve capital cost reductions (multiple units purchase via consortium).<br />

Recommendations and Next Steps<br />

Overall recommendations from the Phase 1 Study are as follows.<br />

Solar<br />

Wind<br />

1. Maintain a watching brief on current technology costs, which are reducing rapidly.<br />

2. Consider any immediate opportunities for solar PV generation of less than 100 kW e , which in<br />

Victoria are currently eligible for a feed-in tariff (FIT) of 8 c/kWh (which for solar PV may not be<br />

commercially viable).<br />

3. Consider large-scale solar at specific sites where peak generation may be able to off-set large<br />

peaking cooling loads (large refrigeration loads such as refrigerated distribution centre, large<br />

winery or dairy).<br />

1. Consider whether local information can identify any specific locations that would yield a better<br />

resource (than currently mapped).<br />

2. The <strong>Shire</strong> should also consider engagement opportunities with other regions in which wind<br />

resources are more significant.<br />

3. Keep a watching brief on low-speed turbine developments.<br />

Geothermal<br />

1. Re-consider only if new geothermal data becomes available.<br />

Hydropower<br />

1. Consider limited possibilities for small-scale hydropower generation (


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

2. Clarify availability and price of glycerol from Australian Biodiesel Producers (Barnawartha). If<br />

favourable, investigate possibility of biodigester cogeneration plant at Uncle Toby’s (Wahgunyah),<br />

Rivalea (Corowa), or Murray Goulburn (Tangambalanga).<br />

3. Contact plantation operators to further investigate nearby out-of-<strong>Shire</strong> plantation waste resources<br />

including typical transport routes, likely future availability and prices.<br />

4. Evaluate possible short rotation cropping systems suited to the <strong>Shire</strong> soil and climate, and<br />

evaluate practical extent suitable for integration with existing farming practices.<br />

5. Contact large industries in and around <strong>Shire</strong> as specified in Table 8-12 to confirm cogeneration<br />

and/or tri-generation opportunities.<br />

6. Prioritise detailed site co/tri-generation investigation(s) based on the individual site specifics.<br />

In Conclusion - A Possible Generation Mix<br />

The following table summarises a possible generation mix, taking into account the suggested generation<br />

mix priorities, network characteristics, major consumers, LCOE, possible cogeneration sites and sites<br />

with peak cooling loads. The table is not prescriptive, and is intended only to suggest a potential shortlist<br />

of generation possibilities from which a total of 13 MW e could be selected. The list would be subject to<br />

much refinement upon obtaining further detailed information from a number of the industrial sites, which<br />

will be considered in detail during Phase 2. (Although some attempt has been made to list the generation<br />

options in order of merit, this is likely to be arbitrary, pending further site specific technical and economic<br />

details to be obtained in Phase 2.)<br />

Table – Possible inclusions in a future <strong>renewable</strong> generation mix for <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Resource<br />

Type<br />

Quality<br />

available<br />

in <strong>Indigo</strong><br />

Suggested<br />

Location(s)<br />

Approx.<br />

LCOE<br />

($/MWh e )<br />

Suggested<br />

Capacity*<br />

(MW e )<br />

Comments<br />

Biomass<br />

Energy<br />

crops /<br />

Imports<br />

Carter Holt<br />

Harvey<br />

Myrtleford<br />

118 6<br />

(6)<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Retail off-set<br />

incentive;<br />

Co-gen Incentive;<br />

Network benefits<br />

Biomass<br />

Site waste<br />

+ Energy<br />

crops /<br />

Imports<br />

Murray Goulburn<br />

Tangambalanga<br />

118 6<br />

(6)<br />

<br />

<br />

Retail off-set<br />

incentive;<br />

Co/Tri-gen incentive;<br />

Biomass<br />

Site waste<br />

+ Energy<br />

crops /<br />

Imports<br />

Uncle Toby’s<br />

Wahgunyah<br />

185 2<br />

(2)<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Retail off-set<br />

incentive;<br />

Co-gen incentive;<br />

Network benefits<br />

Biomass<br />

Energy<br />

crops /<br />

Imports<br />

Logic Centre<br />

Barnawartha<br />

118 6<br />

(6)<br />

<br />

<br />

Retail off-set<br />

incentive;<br />

Co/Tri-gen Incentive<br />

Wind Marginal Various, eg<br />

Chiltern,<br />

Beechworth,<br />

Yackandandah<br />

Wodonga<br />

124 4.5<br />

(1.5)<br />

<br />

<br />

LCOE very sensitive<br />

to actual wind velocity<br />

Seek best possible<br />

resource(s) at<br />

available grid<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 6


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Resource<br />

Type<br />

Quality<br />

available<br />

in <strong>Indigo</strong><br />

Suggested<br />

Location(s)<br />

Approx.<br />

LCOE<br />

($/MWh e )<br />

Suggested<br />

Capacity*<br />

(MW e )<br />

Comments<br />

connection locales<br />

Solar PV Good Rutherglen 204 1.5<br />

(0.3)<br />

<br />

<br />

Network benefits<br />

May complement<br />

large refrigeration<br />

loads (winery)<br />

Solar CST Good Logic Centre<br />

Barnawartha<br />

298 20<br />

(5.4)<br />

<br />

Possible<br />

biomass/CST hybrid<br />

would reduce LCOE<br />

<br />

May complement<br />

large refrigeration<br />

loads (distribution<br />

centre)<br />

*Rated Capacity (Average actual generated power taking into account capacity factor)<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 7


Earth Systems<br />

Contents<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 2<br />

1 Background, Objectives and Scope .................................................................. 21<br />

1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................... 21<br />

1.2 Objectives and Scope ........................................................................................................... 21<br />

1.2.1 Exclusions .............................................................................................................................................. 21<br />

2 <strong>Shire</strong> Electric Grid Infrastructure ....................................................................... 22<br />

2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 22<br />

2.1.1 Electricity Generation in Victoria ..................................................................................................... 22<br />

2.2 State of the Network ............................................................................................................. 22<br />

2.2.1 Network ................................................................................................................................................... 22<br />

2.2.2 Current and Forecast Grid Loads ................................................................................................... 24<br />

2.3 Legislative and Regulatory Requirements ......................................................................... 25<br />

2.3.1 Administrative Organisation ............................................................................................................. 25<br />

2.3.2 Scheduled vs. Unscheduled Generation ..................................................................................... 25<br />

2.4 Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 26<br />

2.4.1 Grid Connected vs. Islanded Generation .................................................................................... 26<br />

2.4.2 Potential Opportunities ...................................................................................................................... 26<br />

2.4.3 Barriers to Implementation ............................................................................................................... 28<br />

2.5 Conclusions and Recommendations .................................................................................. 29<br />

3 Major Regional Electricity Consumers .............................................................. 30<br />

3.1 Current and Forecast Demand ............................................................................................ 30<br />

3.1.1 Residential ............................................................................................................................................. 30<br />

3.1.2 Commercial and Institutional ........................................................................................................... 31<br />

3.1.3 Industrial ................................................................................................................................................. 31<br />

4 Land Analysis ...................................................................................................... 33<br />

4.1 Geographical Features ......................................................................................................... 33<br />

4.2 Farming Zone in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> .............................................................................................. 34<br />

4.3 Areas of Cultural Significance ............................................................................................. 35<br />

5 Modelling Methodology ...................................................................................... 38<br />

5.1 Energy Generation Modelling .............................................................................................. 38<br />

5.1.1 Electricity Pricing ................................................................................................................................. 38<br />

5.1.2 Network Charges ................................................................................................................................. 39<br />

5.1.3 Transmission Costs ............................................................................................................................ 39<br />

5.1.4 Selected Capacities ............................................................................................................................ 39<br />

5.2 Simple Economic Modelling ................................................................................................ 39<br />

5.2.1 Levelised Cost of Energy .................................................................................................................. 40<br />

6 Solar Power ......................................................................................................... 42<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 8


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

6.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................ 42<br />

6.2 Solar Energy Technology ..................................................................................................... 45<br />

6.2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Systems ............................................................................................................. 45<br />

6.2.2 Concentrating Solar Thermal ........................................................................................................... 50<br />

6.2.3 Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV) ................................................................................................. 55<br />

6.2.4 Environmental Impact ........................................................................................................................ 57<br />

6.3 Solar Resources in <strong>Indigo</strong> .................................................................................................... 58<br />

6.3.1 Solar Resource Characterisation Methodology ......................................................................... 62<br />

6.3.2 Model Parameters ............................................................................................................................... 63<br />

6.3.3 Modelling Results ................................................................................................................................ 64<br />

6.4 Conclusions and Recommendations .................................................................................. 70<br />

7 Wind Power .......................................................................................................... 72<br />

7.1 Wind Technology Review ..................................................................................................... 72<br />

7.1.1 Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine (HAWT) ......................................................................................... 74<br />

7.1.2 Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT)............................................................................................... 75<br />

7.1.3 Technology costs and economics .................................................................................................. 76<br />

7.1.4 Environmental Impact ........................................................................................................................ 77<br />

7.2 Wind Resources in <strong>Indigo</strong> .................................................................................................... 77<br />

7.3 Wind Opportunities in <strong>Indigo</strong> ............................................................................................... 81<br />

7.3.1 Wind Resource Characterisation Methodology ......................................................................... 81<br />

7.3.2 Modelling Results ................................................................................................................................ 82<br />

7.4 Conclusions and Recommendations .................................................................................. 87<br />

8 Bio<strong>energy</strong>............................................................................................................. 89<br />

8.1 Bio<strong>energy</strong> Introduction ........................................................................................................ 90<br />

8.1.1 What is Biomass .................................................................................................................................. 90<br />

8.1.2 What is Bio<strong>energy</strong>? ............................................................................................................................. 90<br />

8.1.3 Bio<strong>energy</strong> Status: Global, Australia and Victoria ..................................................................... 92<br />

8.2 Bio<strong>energy</strong> Technology ......................................................................................................... 96<br />

8.2.1 Gasification ............................................................................................................................................ 97<br />

8.2.2 Combustion ........................................................................................................................................... 99<br />

8.2.3 Pyrolysis ............................................................................................................................................... 103<br />

8.2.4 Anaerobic Digestion ......................................................................................................................... 104<br />

8.3 Comparative Technology Costs and Maturity ................................................................. 104<br />

8.4 Biomass Resources in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong>.................................................................................. 107<br />

8.4.1 Current Land Use and Production ............................................................................................... 107<br />

8.4.2 Waste Biomass Resources in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> ............................................................................... 109<br />

8.4.3 Hancock Victorian Plantations (HVP) ......................................................................................... 110<br />

8.4.4 Residential Organics Greenwaste Collection and Transfer Station .................................. 111<br />

8.4.5 Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)....................................................................................................... 112<br />

8.4.6 Waste biomass resource – <strong>energy</strong> and electricity generation potential .......................... 112<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 9


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

8.5 Bio<strong>energy</strong> Cropping Opportunities ................................................................................... 114<br />

8.5.1 Short-rotation coppice cropping (SCC) and inter-cropping bio<strong>energy</strong> ............................. 115<br />

8.6 High Energy Demand Users ............................................................................................... 120<br />

8.6.1 Murray Goulburn Kiewa (Tangambalanga) ............................................................................... 123<br />

8.6.2 Uncle Toby’s (Wahgunyah) ............................................................................................................ 123<br />

8.7 Bio<strong>energy</strong> Modelling Targets ............................................................................................. 124<br />

8.8 Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................................................ 130<br />

9 Geothermal Energy ........................................................................................... 132<br />

9.1 Geothermal Technology Review ....................................................................................... 132<br />

9.1.1 Technology Costs and Economics .............................................................................................. 133<br />

9.1.2 Environmental Impact ...................................................................................................................... 133<br />

9.2 Geothermal Resources in <strong>Indigo</strong>....................................................................................... 134<br />

9.3 Geothermal Opportunities in <strong>Indigo</strong> ................................................................................. 135<br />

10 Hydropower ....................................................................................................... 136<br />

10.1 Hydropower Technology .................................................................................................... 136<br />

10.1.1 Technology Costs and Economics ............................................................................................ 137<br />

10.1.2 Environmental Impact .................................................................................................................... 138<br />

10.2 Hydropower Resources in Victoria ................................................................................... 138<br />

10.3 Hydropower Opportunities in <strong>Indigo</strong> ................................................................................ 139<br />

11 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 141<br />

12 Recommendations ............................................................................................ 144<br />

13 References ......................................................................................................... 146<br />

Appendices<br />

Appendix A:<br />

Appendix B:<br />

Appendix C:<br />

Appendix D:<br />

Appendix E:<br />

Electricity Demand – target setting for <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar thermal (CST) – Technology review,<br />

detailed meteorological GIS <strong>mapping</strong>, detailed costings and references<br />

Wind– Technology review, detailed costings and references<br />

Biomass – Detailed costings and references<br />

Errata – reviewers comments<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 10


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Figures<br />

Figure 2.1: Representation of the Electricity Delivery Model [6] .......................................................... 23<br />

Figure 2.2: High Voltage Shared Electricity Network in Victoria [] ...................................................... 23<br />

Figure 2.3: SP Ausnet supply areas and terminal and zone substations in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> area [6] .... 24<br />

Figure 2.4: Location of Wodonga Logic Centre with respect to other <strong>Indigo</strong> load centres .............. 27<br />

Figure 2.5: Connection Process for Medium-scale Distributed Generation [2] .................................. 28<br />

Figure 3.1: Population map of <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> ............................................................................................ 31<br />

Figure 3.2: Location of major towns and major industrial <strong>energy</strong> consumers (~1 MW e shown in<br />

white (including towns), ~10 MW e shown in red) ......................................................... 32<br />

Figure 4.1: Map of Park and Forest Areas in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> .................................................................... 33<br />

Figure 4.2: Mountainous areas in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> ...................................................................................... 34<br />

Figure 4.3: Farming zone in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> ................................................................................................ 35<br />

Figure 4.4: Map of Areas of Cultural Significance in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> ....................................................... 36<br />

Figure 4.5: Land constraint areas from combined sources in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> ........................................ 37<br />

Figure 5.1: Levelised Cost of Energy [14] ............................................................................................... 40<br />

Figure 6.1: Worldwide annual global solar exposure in kWh/m 2 []....................................................... 42<br />

Figure 6.2: Annual average daily global solar exposure ....................................................................... 43<br />

Figure 6.3: Annual average daily direct normal solar exposure........................................................... 43<br />

Figure 6.4: Rutherglen Daily Global Solar Exposure by Month and Annual Average [] .................... 44<br />

Figure 6.5: Solar operating plants with capacity of more than 30 kW e [] ............................................ 45<br />

Figure 6.6: Martifer Solar PV array (left) []; Schematic of PV Solar generation system (right) []...... 45<br />

Figure 6.7: Installed capacity of Solar PV internationally and in Australia [26,]................................. 46<br />

Figure 6.8: Solar PV large scale installations in Australia [52] ............................................................ 47<br />

Figure 6.9: Australian PV module prices in current AUD [] .................................................................. 48<br />

Figure 6.10: PV System Capital Cost [] ................................................................................................... 48<br />

Figure 6.11: PV Levelised cost of <strong>energy</strong> [43] ........................................................................................ 49<br />

Figure 6.12: Balance of System Cost and Levelised Cost of Energy forecast [41]. .......................... 49<br />

Figure 6.13: Schematic of Typical Concentrating Solar Plant []........................................................... 50<br />

Figure 6.14: Australia Concentrating Solar Thermal plants [] .............................................................. 51<br />

Figure 6.15 World Installed Concentrating Solar Thermal [] ................................................................. 52<br />

Figure 6.16: Estimated LCOE dependence on system size (normalised to a 100 MWe system with 5<br />

hours’ storage) [50] ......................................................................................................... 52<br />

Figure 6.17 Estimated CSP cost / LCOE reductions (Reproduced from AT Kearney, 2010) [50] ...... 55<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 11


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Figure 6.18: Concentrating PV Dishes (top); Power Tower in Bridgwater VIC (bottom left);<br />

Concentrating PV System (bottom right) [,,] ................................................................. 56<br />

Figure 6.19: Solar <strong>energy</strong> components and concentrating system [,] ................................................. 59<br />

Figure 6.20: Annual average daily global exposure in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> .................................................... 59<br />

Figure 6.21: January average daily global exposure in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> (max. condition) ...................... 60<br />

Figure 6.22: June average daily global exposure in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> (min. condition) ............................ 60<br />

Figure 6.23: Annual average daily direct normal solar exposure in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> .............................. 61<br />

Figure 6.24: January average daily direct normal solar exposure in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> (max. condition) 62<br />

Figure 6.25: June average daily direct normal solar exposure in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> (min. condition) ...... 62<br />

Figure 6.26: Proposed areas for solar PV plants (representative areas for scale purposes only, not<br />

actual geographical location) ......................................................................................... 66<br />

Figure 6.27: Proposed areas for 20 MW e CST plant (representative areas for scale purposes only,<br />

not actual geographical location) .................................................................................. 66<br />

Figure 7.1: Total cumulative installed global wind capacity in MW e [70] ............................................ 72<br />

Figure 7.2: Installed wind capacity by state [70] .................................................................................... 73<br />

Figure 7.3: Wind large scale installations in Australia [52] ................................................................... 73<br />

Figure 7.4: Wind generators in Victoria (as of August 2011) [71]......................................................... 74<br />

Figure 7.5: Components making up a typical horizontal axis wind turbine [] .................................... 75<br />

Figure 7.6: Vertical Axis Wind Turbines: (a) Darrieus [73] and (b) Savonius wind turbines [] .......... 76<br />

Figure 7.7: Wind power cost projections based on various studies [14] ............................................ 77<br />

Figure 7.8: Victorian wind atlas (wind speed at 65 m) [84] ................................................................... 79<br />

Figure 7.9: Victorian wind map produced by Sustainability Victoria (65 m elevation) [84] ............... 79<br />

Figure 7.10: <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> wind speed map from the Wind Atlas produced by Sustainability Victoria<br />

(wind speed at 65 m elevation) [84] ............................................................................... 80<br />

Figure 7.11: Proposed areas for wind farms (representative areas for scale purposes only, not<br />

actual geographical location) ......................................................................................... 85<br />

Table 8.1: Summary of LCA bio<strong>energy</strong> scenarios vs current practice fossil fuel scenario from IEA<br />

Task 38 [102] .................................................................................................................... 91<br />

Figure 8.2: Shares of <strong>energy</strong> sources in total global primary <strong>energy</strong> supply in 2008 (492 EJ) [] ..... 92<br />

Figure 8.3: Shares of global primary biomass sources for <strong>energy</strong> in 2008 (50.3EJ) [103] ................ 92<br />

Figure 8.4: Share of primary <strong>energy</strong> sources in world electricity generation in 2008 [103] .............. 93<br />

Figure 8.5: Proportions of Energy Generated from Biomass for Selected Nations [100] .................. 93<br />

Figure 8.6: Bio<strong>energy</strong> electricity generation total for Australia [104] .................................................. 94<br />

Figure 8.7: Bio<strong>energy</strong> electricity generation by state in Australia [] ................................................... 95<br />

Figure 8.8: bio<strong>energy</strong> generators in Victoria []....................................................................................... 96<br />

Figure 8.9: Typical scales of various thermochemical conversion technologies [99] ....................... 97<br />

Figure 8.10: Schematic representation of a gasification process (adapted from []) ......................... 98<br />

Figure 8.11: Simple steam Rankine cycle (adapted from []) ............................................................... 100<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 12


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Figure 8.12: An ORC trigeneration process with wood as feedstock (adapted from []) .................. 101<br />

Figure 8.13: Simple Kalina cycle ............................................................................................................ 102<br />

Figure 8.14: the production of the solid fraction biochar from a slow pyrolysis process can result<br />

in a net removal of carbon from the atmosphere [] .................................................... 104<br />

Figure 8.15: Range in recent LCOE for commercially available <strong>renewable</strong> <strong>energy</strong> technologies in<br />

comparison to recent non-<strong>renewable</strong> <strong>energy</strong> costs. Technology subcategories and<br />

discount rates were aggregated [103] ......................................................................... 105<br />

Figure 8.16: Typical recent bio<strong>energy</strong> LCOE at a 7% discount rate, calculated over a year of<br />

feedstock costs, which differ between technologies. These costs do not include<br />

interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization [103] .................................................. 105<br />

Figure 8.17: Technology maturity states of bio<strong>energy</strong>: thermochemical (orange), and biochemical<br />

(blue), and for heat and power [103] ............................................................................ 106<br />

Figure 8.18: Biomass power generation technology maturity status [] ............................................ 107<br />

Figure 8.19: Tree density layers. Note: the area of the scattered tree layer within the <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

boundary is 17,300 ha. .................................................................................................. 109<br />

Figure 8.20: Proposed layout of Mallee plantation on farmland......................................................... 115<br />

Figure 8.21: Energy cropping representative areas for scale purposes only at 2.5, 6 and 13 MW e<br />

requirements for solid short cycle cropping scenario .............................................. 116<br />

Figure 8.22: Energy inter-cropping representative areas for scale purposes only at 2.5 MWe<br />

requirements for short-rotation coppice cropping scenario .................................... 118<br />

Figure 8.23: Energy inter-cropping representative areas for scale purposes only at 6 MWe<br />

requirements for short-rotation coppice cropping scenario .................................... 119<br />

Figure 8.24: Energy inter-cropping representative areas for scale purposes only at 13 MWe<br />

requirements for short-rotation coppice cropping scenario .................................... 120<br />

Figure 8.25: sites of interest – potential biomass resource (green) or <strong>energy</strong> demand user (red), or<br />

both ................................................................................................................................. 121<br />

Figure 8.26: The Murray Goulburn retail milk and cream cheese processing facility located at 19<br />

Kiewa East Road, Tangambalanga, Victoria, 3691 ..................................................... 123<br />

Figure 8.27: The Uncle Toby’s breakfast cereals and foods processing facility located at 13 Talbot<br />

Rd Wahgunyah, VIC, 3687 ............................................................................................. 124<br />

Figure 9.1: Geothermal temperature at 1500 m [85] ............................................................................ 135<br />

Figure 10.1: Hydroelectric power generation [] .................................................................................... 136<br />

Figure 10.2: Hydro generators in Victoria [143] ................................................................................... 139<br />

Figure 10.3: Hydro Potential in Victoria and <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> ................................................................... 140<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 13


Earth Systems<br />

Tables<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Table 2-1: Current and Forecast loads at relevant zone substations to 2015 [11] ............................. 24<br />

Table 2-2: Sub-transmission loop loads [7] ............................................................................................ 24<br />

Table 3-1: Estimated yearly <strong>energy</strong> consumption for Uncle Toby’s in Wahgunyah and Murray<br />

Goulburn Kiewa in Tangambalanga............................................................................... 32<br />

Table 5-1: Data and assumptions used for financial modelling ........................................................... 40<br />

Table 6-1: Example of commercial-scale CST plants in the world [50] ............................................... 53<br />

Table 6-2: Greenhouse Gas analysis of solar PV ................................................................................... 57<br />

Table 6-3: Greenhouse Gas analysis of CST .......................................................................................... 57<br />

Table 6-4: Solar System Modelling Parameters ..................................................................................... 63<br />

Table 6-5: Solar PV <strong>energy</strong> generation modelling results ..................................................................... 64<br />

Table 6-6: CST <strong>energy</strong> generation modelling results ............................................................................ 65<br />

Table 6-7: Data and results of key financial parameters (all in 2012 AU$) of solar PV 1.5 MW e ....... 67<br />

Table 6-8: Data and results of key financial parameters (all in 2012 AU$) of solar PV 10 MW e ........ 67<br />

Table 6-9: Data and results of key financial parameters (all in 2012 AU$) of solar PV 20 MW e ........ 68<br />

Table 6-10: Data and results of key financial parameters (all in 2012 AU$) of CST 20 MW e ............. 69<br />

Table 7-1: GHG analysis of wind farm ..................................................................................................... 77<br />

Table 7-2: Energy generation potential in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> and surrounding area at 120 m elevation<br />

[86,87,88] ........................................................................................................................... 82<br />

Table 7-3: Energy demand data and required <strong>energy</strong> generation results ........................................... 83<br />

Table 7-4: Key Financial Data and Results for wind farm at 1.5 MW e .................................................. 85<br />

Table 7-5: Key Financial Data and Results for wind farm at 10 MW e ................................................... 86<br />

Table 7-6: Key Financial Data and Results for wind farm at 20 MW e ................................................... 86<br />

Table 8-1: Fuel requirements versus gasifier design ............................................................................ 98<br />

Table 8-2: Technical data of Lienz I and Lienz II .................................................................................. 102<br />

Table 8-3: Major uses of land ................................................................................................................. 107<br />

Table 8-4: Agriculture production by crop type ................................................................................... 107<br />

Table 8-5: Animal numbers and farms .................................................................................................. 108<br />

Table 8-6: Biomass waste resources for <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> from 2011 biomass survey .......................... 109<br />

Table 8-7: Residential organic curb side collection and transfer stations ........................................ 111<br />

Table 8-8: estimated thermal bio<strong>energy</strong> electricity generation potential from waste biomass<br />

resources within <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> ...................................................................................... 112<br />

Table 8-9: estimated biological bio<strong>energy</strong> electricity generation potential from biomass resources<br />

within <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> ......................................................................................................... 113<br />

Table 8-10: estimated bio<strong>energy</strong> electricity generation potential from HVP chipped plantation<br />

residue and other saw mill waste from outside the <strong>Shire</strong> ......................................... 113<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 14


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Table 8-11: Short-rotation coppice cropping (SCC) scenario land area required for 2.5, 6.0 and 13.0<br />

MW e in a solid block, and via inter-cropping within <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> ............................. 116<br />

Table 8-12: summary of <strong>energy</strong> demand sites within and outside <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> ............................... 120<br />

Table 8-13: summary of <strong>energy</strong> demand sites contacted and data collection progress. ................ 121<br />

Table 8-14: Estimate of electricity and thermal requirements for Murray Goulburn Kiewa -<br />

Tangambalanga .............................................................................................................. 123<br />

Table 8-15: Estimate of electricity and thermal requirements for Uncle Toby’s Wahgunyah ......... 124<br />

Table 8-16: Bio<strong>energy</strong> modelling targets – electrical and thermal ..................................................... 124<br />

Table 8-17: Cost and thermal heat price data for biomass to <strong>energy</strong> technologies ........................ 125<br />

Table 8-18: Estimated Bio<strong>energy</strong> Crop Harvesting Costs [122] ......................................................... 126<br />

Table 8-19: Cost data for biomass production and transportation [] ................................................ 126<br />

Table 8-20: Key financial results for gasifier and gas engine at 2.5 MW e ......................................... 127<br />

Table 8-21: Key financial results for gasifier and gas engine at 6.0 MW e ......................................... 129<br />

Table 8-22: Key financial results for gasifier and gas engine at 13 MW e .......................................... 130<br />

Table 9-1: Geothermal Power Summary ............................................................................................... 134<br />

Table 10-1: Typical Data and Figures for Hydropower Technology ................................................... 137<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 15


Earth Systems<br />

Acronyms<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

ACCC<br />

AEMO<br />

AEMC<br />

AER<br />

BOM<br />

BWA<br />

Capex<br />

CEF<br />

CF<br />

CLFR<br />

CPM<br />

CPV<br />

CSP<br />

CST<br />

db<br />

DCF<br />

DG<br />

DNI<br />

DNSP<br />

EEO<br />

EHV<br />

EPRI<br />

EWEA<br />

FIT<br />

GHG<br />

Australian Competition and Consumer Commission<br />

Australian Energy Market Operator<br />

Australian Energy Market Commission<br />

Australian Energy Regulator<br />

Bureau of Meteorology<br />

Barnawartha (Substation)<br />

Capital Expenditures<br />

Clean Energy Future<br />

Capacity Factor<br />

Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector<br />

Carbon Pricing Mechanism<br />

Concentrating photovoltaic<br />

Concentrating Solar Power<br />

Concentrating Solar Thermal<br />

Dry basis<br />

Discounted Cash Flow<br />

Distributed Generation<br />

Direct Normal Irradiance<br />

Distribution Network Source Provider<br />

Energy Efficiency Opportunities<br />

Extra High Voltage<br />

Electric Power Research Institute<br />

European Wind Energy Association<br />

Feed-in Tariff<br />

Greenhouse Gas<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 16


Earth Systems<br />

GHI<br />

GWEC<br />

ha<br />

HAWT<br />

HFR<br />

HAS<br />

IEA<br />

IEC<br />

IPCC<br />

IRR<br />

km/h<br />

kV<br />

kVA<br />

kW<br />

kW e<br />

kWh<br />

kWh th<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Global Horizontal Irradiance<br />

Global Wind Energy <strong>Council</strong><br />

Hectare<br />

Horizontal axis wind turbine<br />

Hot Fractured Rocks<br />

Hot Sedimentary Aquifers<br />

International Energy Agency<br />

International Electrotechnical Commission<br />

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<br />

Internal Rate of Return<br />

Kilometre per hour<br />

KiloVolt<br />

Kilo Volt Amp<br />

KiloWatts<br />

KiloWatts electrical<br />

KilloWatt Hour<br />

KiloWatt hour thermal<br />

kWh tot<br />

KiloWatt hour total (electrical and thermal)<br />

kW th<br />

KiloWatts thermal<br />

kW tot<br />

KiloWatts total (electric and thermal)<br />

LCA<br />

LCOE<br />

LGC<br />

M<br />

MBTS<br />

MGK<br />

m/s<br />

Lifecycle Assessment<br />

Levelised Cost of Energy<br />

Large-scale Generation Certificates<br />

Metre<br />

Mount Beauty Terminal Substation<br />

Murray Goulburn Kiewa<br />

Metre per second<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 17


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

MW<br />

MW e<br />

MWh<br />

MWh e<br />

MWh th<br />

MegaWatts<br />

MegaWatts electrical<br />

MegaWatt hour<br />

MegaWatt hour electrical<br />

MegaWatt hour thermal<br />

MWh tot<br />

MegaWatt hour total (electrical and thermal)<br />

MW th<br />

MegaWatts thermal<br />

MW tot<br />

MegaWatts total (electric and thermal)<br />

MYT<br />

NASA<br />

NEM<br />

NER<br />

NGER<br />

NPV<br />

NREL<br />

Opex<br />

ORC<br />

PV<br />

RECs<br />

RET<br />

tCO 2<br />

tCO 2 e<br />

UCW<br />

VAWT<br />

wb<br />

WEC<br />

WN<br />

Myrtleford (Substation)<br />

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (United States)<br />

National Electricity Market<br />

National Electricity Rules<br />

National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting<br />

Net Present Value<br />

National Renewable Energy Laboratory<br />

Operational Expenditures<br />

Organic Rankine Cycle<br />

Photovoltaic<br />

Renewable Energy Certificates<br />

Renewable Energy Target<br />

Tonne carbon dioxide<br />

Tonne carbon dioxide equivalent<br />

Uncle Toby’s Wahgunyah<br />

Vertical axis wind turbine<br />

Wet basis<br />

Wind Energy Conversion<br />

Wangaratta (Substation)<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 18


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

WO<br />

WOTS<br />

ZSS<br />

Wodonga (Substation)<br />

Wodonga Terminal Substation<br />

Zone Substation<br />

Glossary of Terms<br />

Availability Factor<br />

Capacity Factor<br />

Direct solar exposure or<br />

DNI (Direct Normal<br />

Irradiance)<br />

Distributed Generation<br />

Efficiency<br />

Global solar exposure or<br />

GHI (Global Horizontal<br />

Irradiance)<br />

Hub height<br />

Internal Rate of Return<br />

Land use factor<br />

Levelised Cost of Energy<br />

Availability factor indicates how much of the time the plant is available to<br />

meet demand.<br />

The net capacity factor of a power plant is the ratio of the actual output<br />

of a power plant over a period of time and its potential output if it had<br />

operated at full nameplate capacity the entire time.<br />

Solar direct normal irradiance (DNI) is the instantaneous intensity of<br />

solar direct beam <strong>energy</strong> falling on a surface normal to the beam.<br />

Distributed generation involves the technology of using small-scale<br />

power generation technologies located in close proximity to the load<br />

being served.<br />

A ratio of yielded output per unit input for a specific process, normally<br />

expressed as a percentage.<br />

GHI is the instantaneous intensity of solar <strong>energy</strong> falling on a horizontal<br />

surface. The values are usually highest in the middle of the day and<br />

around summer, with localised variations caused mainly by variations in<br />

atmospheric conditions, primarily cloudiness.<br />

Specific to wind <strong>energy</strong>, it is the distance from the turbine platform to the<br />

rotor of an installed wind turbine and indicates how high the turbine<br />

stands above the ground, not including the length of the turbine blades<br />

The discount rate often used in capital budgeting that makes the net<br />

present value of all cash flows from a particular project equal to zero<br />

The land use factor is the ratio between the directly utilised ground area<br />

of a technology deployment and the total land area required for<br />

deployment, including necessary redundant land area, such as that<br />

required between solar thermal mirrors to avoid shading issues.<br />

A present value measure of the lifecycle cost of generating power from a<br />

given plant considering the capital cost, operating costs (including fuel),<br />

capacity factor, financing cost, and incentives. The Levelised Cost is a<br />

useful calculation because it allows comparison of different generation<br />

technologies on an equal basis.<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 19


Earth Systems<br />

Merit Order<br />

Nameplate capacity<br />

Net Present Value (NPV)<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

The merit order is a way of ranking available sources of <strong>energy</strong>,<br />

especially electrical generation, in ascending order of their short-run<br />

marginal costs of production, so that those with the lowest marginal<br />

costs are the first ones to be brought online to meet demand, and the<br />

plants with the highest marginal costs are the last to be brought on line.<br />

The intended technical full–load sustained output of a facility such as a<br />

power plant, a chemical plant, fuel plant, metal refinery, mine, and many<br />

others.<br />

NPV compares the value of a dollar today to the value of that same<br />

dollar in the future, taking inflation and returns into account.<br />

ISC1240_Phase_1_Report_Rev0_public report 20


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

1 Background, Objectives and Scope<br />

1.1 Background<br />

In 2011 <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> commissioned a study into producing low carbon electricity and heating, as part of<br />

the aims of the <strong>Shire</strong>’s Environmental Advisory Committee [1]. The study quantified the <strong>Shire</strong>’s electricity<br />

usage and identified numerous potential <strong>renewable</strong> <strong>energy</strong> resources. Funding for this subsequent work<br />

was secured through the Victorian Government’s Sustainability Accord Programme. This study was<br />

conceived in two phases: Phase 1, a survey of <strong>renewable</strong> <strong>energy</strong> resources in the region and<br />

development potential; and Phase 2, a detailed report evaluating the potential of bio<strong>energy</strong> in the region<br />

specifically. This document reports the results of Phase 1 of the study.<br />

1.2 Objectives and Scope<br />

The objective of Phase 1 was to evaluate in a desktop study the extent of the <strong>renewable</strong> <strong>energy</strong><br />

resources within <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong>, including solar, wind, geothermal, hydrothermal and biomass resources.<br />

Utilising information on the current state of the relevant technologies, geophysical and topographical data<br />

and other information resources relevant to the <strong>Shire</strong>, the likely cost and technical feasibility of <strong>renewable</strong><br />

<strong>energy</strong> deployment in the <strong>Shire</strong> has been reviewed.<br />

For the purposes of this preliminary economic and technical investigation, a <strong>renewable</strong> <strong>energy</strong><br />

deployment with a combined generating capacity to provide for 13,000 households has been modelled.<br />

This represents the anticipated total <strong>Shire</strong> electricity consumption in 2050. A suggested <strong>renewable</strong> <strong>energy</strong><br />

generation mix based on available and potentially available is presented to achieve the generating<br />

capacity of 13,000 households in 2050 (an estimated 13 MW e of average generation capacity that will<br />

generate approximately 110 GWh e per annum). Presently, there are 6,000 households and electricity<br />

consumption of this sector was taken as the current base case.<br />

Some external sites outside of <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> were reviewed for strategic <strong>energy</strong> purposes. These included<br />

the Myrtleford sub-station, Carter Holt Harvey site in Myrtleford, several other local zone substations, and<br />

the Wodonga Logic Centre near Barnawartha due to grid capacity opportunities at those locations.<br />

Hancock Victorian Plantations operations near the <strong>Shire</strong> boarder were investigated due to potential<br />

biomass resource utilisation. Some other biomass resources near the <strong>Shire</strong> border, or transiting through<br />

the <strong>Shire</strong>, were reviewed briefly for <strong>energy</strong> opportunity assessment. Some larger <strong>energy</strong> users were also<br />

briefly reviewed for co-generation potential opportunities.<br />

1.2.1 Exclusions<br />

Thermal and transport <strong>energy</strong> have not been considered explicitly in the analysis, however the potential<br />

for co-generation of electricity and heat has been discussed where achievable. Industrial and commercial<br />

electricity demand was also not included in the <strong>renewable</strong> <strong>energy</strong> target for displacement with <strong>renewable</strong><br />

<strong>energy</strong>.<br />

Energy efficiency will play a major role in reducing the current <strong>energy</strong> demand of end users in <strong>Indigo</strong><br />

<strong>Shire</strong> as <strong>energy</strong> efficiency is usually the simplest and most cost effective <strong>energy</strong> and greenhouse<br />

abatement strategy, however, <strong>energy</strong> efficiency was not included in this assessment as this is a demand<br />

side opportunity rather than generation.<br />

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11 Conclusions<br />

Reviewing the variety of resource potentials, generation costs and grid constraints presented in the<br />

preceding sections, it is possible to make some general observations on how a total generation output of<br />

110 GWh e / 13 MW e may be accomplished within the <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> region.<br />

Electricity Grid<br />

The grid in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> is constrained, being fed from a number of out-of-<strong>Shire</strong> zone and terminal<br />

stations. Generation into the grid at approximately the 1 MW e scale may be possible at the main load<br />

centres (regional towns and key industry), namely:<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Chiltern<br />

Beechworth<br />

Yackandandah<br />

Rutherglen<br />

Tangambalanga (Murray Goulburn Dairy Co-op)<br />

Wahgunyah (Uncle Toby’s)<br />

Grid connection of less than 1.5 MW e has less connection infrastructure requirements, (inter-trips are not<br />

mandatory), and may represent a possible “sweet spot” for generator size.<br />

Larger-scale generation (approximately 10 MW e scale) may be possible at several locations just outside<br />

of the <strong>Shire</strong>, namely:<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Barnawartha (Logic Centre)<br />

Wodonga (near sub-station)<br />

Myrtleford (Carter Holt Harvey)<br />

Network constraints at the Wangaratta and Myrtleford substations may be remediated by locating new<br />

generators along these respective network loops, namely:<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Wahgunyah (on the Wangaratta line)<br />

Rutherglen (on the Wangaratta line)<br />

Myrtleford<br />

In certain circumstances, a proposed generator at these locations could negotiate better financial<br />

arrangements with the network operator if network upgrades can be postponed or avoided.<br />

Land Use<br />

An analysis of the location of national and regional parks, areas of cultural significance and mountainous<br />

areas unsuitable for development was undertaken. In general, the North West parts of the <strong>Shire</strong> would<br />

be more favourable for project development than the South East. The North West regions of the <strong>Shire</strong><br />

are also closer to the major load centres.<br />

Renewable Energy – Key Outcomes In Brief<br />

Solar: The technology exists, the resource is good enough, and opportunities exist for grid connection in<br />

the North West. The economics are not compelling at present, but a combination of factors may alter the<br />

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Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

economic equation in the short to medium term. The <strong>Shire</strong> should carefully watch the space and develop<br />

a strategy to capitalise on the opportunity for large-scale solar when the economics improve. In the<br />

meantime, generation of less than 100 kW e in Victoria is currently eligible for a FIT of 8 c/kWh. (<strong>Indigo</strong><br />

<strong>Shire</strong> may consider facilitating the installation of a number of 99.9 kW e solar PV systems on suitable roof<br />

areas as an immediate form of local generation.)<br />

Wind: Overall, the resource is marginal, but specific low-speed turbines may be able to capitalise on it.<br />

The economics are expected to be very sensitive to actual wind velocity at these low speeds. Payback<br />

periods are, however, better than solar due to lower capital equipment cost and better capacity factor.<br />

Wind data available may not accurately characterise particularly localised, higher-than-average wind<br />

velocity resources peculiar to specific land topography within the <strong>Shire</strong>, and local knowledge should be<br />

evaluated. The <strong>Shire</strong> should also consider engagement opportunities with other regions in which wind<br />

resources are more significant.<br />

Biomass: At present, about 3.4 MW e of generation is possible from the recovery of absolutely all<br />

available waste biomass in the entire <strong>Shire</strong> (including agricultural wastes). Energy crops, waste from<br />

forest fuel reduction, and/or a significant import of biomass from outside the <strong>Shire</strong> would be needed to<br />

provide a significant bio<strong>energy</strong> contribution. Significant (but currently fully utilised) plantation waste<br />

resources exist just beyond <strong>Shire</strong> boundaries, equating to a maximum power generation of about 8.3<br />

MW e . To generate the whole-of-<strong>Shire</strong> target of 13 MW e , an area of approximately 16,100 Ha would be<br />

required under an appropriate solid block short rotation coppice cropping (SCC) scheme. Under an intercropping<br />

SCC scenario this extends to 132,400 Ha. Depending on the scenarios, bio<strong>energy</strong> plant<br />

economic modelling at the small, medium and large generating capacity had LCOEs of 185, 118 and 110<br />

$/MWh e including electricity and thermal heat sales. Possible co-generation opportunities exist at a<br />

number of sites within the region, including Uncle Toby’s and Murray Goulburn, provided their existing<br />

waste resources could be augmented by additional biomass. These, and several other sites are to be<br />

addressed in further detail in Phase 2 of the project.<br />

Geothermal: No significant geothermal resource is indicated in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong>. The existing data is limited,<br />

so the finding should be re-visited in the event that a new dataset for the region is developed.<br />

Hydropower: Large-scale hydro in and near to the <strong>Shire</strong> appears to have been fully exploited. Some<br />

small-scale (e.g. < 1 MW e ) resources exist in the <strong>Shire</strong>, however they are mostly associated with areas of<br />

cultural significance. There may be justification for individual small-scale projects, but these lie outside<br />

the scope of this Study.<br />

Suggested Priorities for Decision Making<br />

Reviewing the variety of resource potentials, generation costs and grid constraints presented in the<br />

preceding sections, it is possible to make some general observations on how a total generation output of<br />

13 MW e may be accomplished within the <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> region.<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

There is little economy of scale benefit in going larger within the range of generation considered,<br />

other than for bio<strong>energy</strong> plant. Therefore, generation scale is likely to be dictated by network<br />

capacity (i.e. largest generator that can be connected without major network infrastructure costs).<br />

There are significant economic benefits in generation resulting in avoided retail power purchase.<br />

There are significant economic benefits in co-generation (possibly even tri-generation) at a given<br />

site.<br />

There may be additional incentives for installing site generation if it avoids the need for the<br />

network operator to undertake other infrastructure upgrades.<br />

Although the resource is marginal, the LCOE of wind means it is an attractive option..<br />

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<br />

<br />

Where substantial cooling loads are present, there may be additional economic benefit in<br />

generating power from solar resources.<br />

If the majority of the biomass is to be purpose-grown (<strong>energy</strong> crops), the same basic generation<br />

equipment type can be used at all sites; and it may be advantageous to use a similar plant size<br />

and/or supplier to achieve capital cost reductions (multiple units purchase via consortium).<br />

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Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

12 Recommendations<br />

Overall recommendations from the Phase 1 Study are as follows.<br />

Solar<br />

Wind<br />

1. Maintain a watching brief on current technology costs, which are reducing rapidly.<br />

2. Consider any immediate opportunities for solar PV generation of less than 100 kW e , which in<br />

Victoria are currently eligible for a feed-in tariff of 8 c/kWh (which may not be commercially viable<br />

for a smaller solar PV system).<br />

3. Consider large-scale solar at specific sites where peak generation may be able to off-set large<br />

peaking cooling loads (large refrigeration loads such as refrigerated distribution centre, large<br />

winery or dairy).<br />

1. Consider whether local information can identify any specific locations that would yield a better<br />

resource (than currently mapped).<br />

2. The <strong>Shire</strong> should also consider engagement opportunities with other regions in which wind<br />

resources are more significant.<br />

3. Keep a watching brief on low-speed turbine developments.<br />

Geothermal<br />

1. Re-consider only if new geothermal data becomes available.<br />

Hydropower<br />

1. Consider limited possibilities for small-scale hydropower generation (


Earth Systems<br />

Mapping and Brokering Local Energy Solutions in <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

options in order of merit, this is likely to be arbitrary, pending further site specific technical and economic<br />

details to be obtained in Phase 2.)<br />

Table – Possible inclusions in a future <strong>renewable</strong> generation mix for <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong><br />

Resource<br />

Type<br />

Quality<br />

available<br />

in <strong>Indigo</strong><br />

Suggested<br />

Location(s)<br />

Approx.<br />

LCOE<br />

($/MWh e )<br />

Suggested<br />

Capacity*<br />

(MW e )<br />

Comments<br />

Biomass<br />

Energy<br />

crops /<br />

Imports<br />

Carter Holt<br />

Harvey<br />

Myrtleford<br />

118 6<br />

(6)<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Retail off-set<br />

incentive;<br />

Co-gen Incentive;<br />

Network benefits<br />

Biomass<br />

Site waste<br />

+ Energy<br />

crops /<br />

Imports<br />

Murray Goulburn<br />

Tangambalanga<br />

118 6<br />

(6)<br />

<br />

<br />

Retail off-set<br />

incentive;<br />

Co/Tri-gen incentive;<br />

Biomass<br />

Site waste<br />

+ Energy<br />

crops /<br />

Imports<br />

Uncle Toby’s<br />

Wahgunyah<br />

185 2<br />

(2)<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Retail off-set<br />

incentive;<br />

Co-gen incentive;<br />

Network benefits<br />

Biomass<br />

Energy<br />

crops /<br />

Imports<br />

Logic Centre<br />

Barnawartha<br />

118 6<br />

(6)<br />

<br />

<br />

Retail off-set<br />

incentive;<br />

Co/Tri-gen Incentive<br />

Wind Marginal Various, eg<br />

Chiltern,<br />

Beechworth,<br />

Yackandandah<br />

Wodonga<br />

124 4.5<br />

(1.5)<br />

<br />

<br />

LCOE very sensitive<br />

to actual wind velocity<br />

Seek best possible<br />

resource(s) at<br />

available grid<br />

connection locales<br />

Solar PV Good Rutherglen 204 1.5<br />

(0.3)<br />

<br />

<br />

Network benefits<br />

May complement<br />

large refrigeration<br />

loads (winery)<br />

Solar CST Good Logic Centre<br />

Barnawartha<br />

298 20<br />

(5.2)<br />

<br />

<br />

Possible<br />

biomass/CST hybrid<br />

would reduce LCOE<br />

May complement<br />

large refrigeration<br />

loads (distribution<br />

centre)<br />

*Rated Capacity (Average generated power)<br />

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Report Title<br />

13 References<br />

[1] Energy and Greenhouse Working Group, <strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong> Environmental Advisory Committee (2011)<br />

<strong>Indigo</strong> <strong>Shire</strong>’s Transition to Renewable Electricity and Self-Sufficiency (Internal Report)<br />

[2] Victorian Competition and Efficiency Commission, (2012), “Power to the People: Inquiry into<br />

Distributed Generation”, Available:<br />

http://www.vcec.vic.gov.au/CA256EAF001C7B21/WebObj/PowerfromthePeople<br />

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[3] Sustainability Victoria, (2011), “Electricity from Renewable Energy in Victoria”, Available:<br />

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[4] Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, “Renewable Energy Target”, Available:<br />

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[5] SunWiz Consulting and Solar Business Services, (2011), “Solar PV Forecast for AEMO 2012-2022:<br />

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[6] Australian Energy Regulator (2008) SP Ausnet Supply Zones(chart). Avalable:<br />

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0&fn=Map%205%20-%20Ausnet%20zones%202008.pdf<br />

[7] Map retrieved from AEMO, http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Planning/Maps-and-Diagrams<br />

[8] SP Ausnet (2011) Transmission Connection Planning Report 2010. Retrieved from http://www.spausnet.com.au/CA2575630006F222/Lookup/general/$file/TCPR2010.pdf<br />

[9] Max Rankin, Senior Project Engineer, SP Ausnet (Personal communication)<br />

[10] SP Ausnet (2011) Distribution System Planning Report 2012-2016. Retrieved from http://www.spausnet.com.au/CA2575630006F222/Lookup/general/$file/DSPReport.pdf<br />

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[12] Sustainability Victoria (2010) Distribution Generation Experience Analysis – Survey Report<br />

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[15] Clean Energy Regulator, “Large scale generation certificates”, Available:<br />

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