Haiti 2010: Possible scenarios after the earthquake ... - Club of Madrid

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Scenarios Haiti Scenarios 2010-2011 Scenario 1: “The stalemate” In this scenario, the implicit agreement of doing nothing prevails among political actors. Parliament’s mandate is not renewed and constitutional reform is abandoned. There is the presence of an enfeebled President who governs with difficulty by means of Decrees in a political polarization context. There is restructuring of the Government and partial inclusion of certain opposition parties. The appropriation of the aid administration by certain political parties is observed, especially with the proximity of elections. Civil society participation is not fostered. The private sector manages to partially add Critical Variables: dynamism to the economy, but is obliged to do short-term planning in view of the uncertain context. The immediate needs of the population are partially satisfied but a political horizon is not built. A feeling of resignation prevails among Haitians. General elections take place in a context of boycott by political parties, amid the indifference of the population, with great technical difficulties and serious risks of political violence. A weak, barely legitimate government wins, with greater difficulties for facing reconstruction challenges. Political agreement Response capability in face of the emergency Scenario 2: “Chaos” In this scenario, violent disturbances due to a struggle for power prevails. The main political actors attempt to impose their own visions with respect to the political and institutional model that should prevail in the reconstruction period, and become incapable of agreeing on parliament renovation procedures, holding of elections and on the mechanism for replacing the President. No consensus is reached on the stability of political institutions (political order). Diverse strategies are implemented to destabilize the government. An absence of basic services is generated. The intensity of the inclement weather and the difficulty of guaranteeing the agricultural cycle make the situation of the population even more precarious. The feeling of resignation is transformed into anger, coming to a social explosion.
We observe violent disturbances on a background of political fragmentation and absence of collective horizons. The President can be forced to leave power before the end of his mandate. A stronger presence of the international community can be seen, whose intervention is decisive for the reestablishment of order, the installation of a new political climate, and the management of the transition to arrive at the swearing-in of new officials in charge of leading the country. Scenario 3: “The phoenix” In this scenario, there is the presence of a strong President who enjoys strong support from ample sectors of the population, whose immediate needs are satisfied since they find echo in presidential messages and actions, which generates hope. The government is restructures with the objective of orienting its action toward coordination of aid and execution of actions prioritized by the President, in an alliance with the private sector that generates profits in a context of political stability. Parliament, now dysfunctional, is put aside. The President governs by Decree. Political opposition cannot impugn the government’s actions. The President can also achieve the construction of an institutional space, in which he has an ample majority which provides him with governance instruments. Since the new power scheme allows guaranteeing political stability and the beginning of the country’s reconstruction, presidential elections pass slowly to a second plane. This opens the possibility of an eventual lengthening of his mandate, and in the medium-term, the installation of a nondemocratic order. Scenario 4: “Commitment” In this scenario, the principal actors agree on the manner of managing immediate constitutional terms in a progressive period that would allow the construction of a minimum trust basis. The basic agreement attempts to: i) Filling the Parliamentary void ii) Defining the immediate future of the constitutional reform iii) Defining the conditions for holding presidential elections iv) Defining criteria for aid management, so as to satisfy the needs of the population and give it new reasons for hope. The minimum political agreement on procedures creates an environment of stability that will allow avoiding the worst scenario. During the following months, all the active forces of the country together with the support of the international community move forward to a socialpolitical pact for the “re-founding of Haiti” prioritizing long-term development. The earthquake has a long-term effect on the population that recovers hope and participates in debates on the future of the country. One can observe the emergence of a Haitian society based on solidarity and inclusion, and the emergence of a new democratic political order. To arrive at Scenario 4, “Commitment”, political leaders must take into account the following points: Leave the prisoner scheme: Create an informal very low profile discussion venue with privileged groups of Haitian personalities. Build a vision of the future: Carry out a collective reflection and public debate process on the re-founding of the country that would allow
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Haiti 2010: Possible scenarios after the earthquake ... - Club of Madrid

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