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MAN BUSINESS MAIN 07-28-08 A 1 MBDB.qxd - Edocr

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6 NEWS<br />

Winners<br />

and Losers<br />

SUMMER HEATS UP<br />

HOLIDAYBREAK SHARES<br />

The start of the summer holiday<br />

period was a good week for<br />

Holidaybreak. The Northwichbased<br />

company saw its shares<br />

rise 7.25 per cent after saying<br />

that the business continues<br />

to perform well in what is a “more<br />

difficult” trading environment. It<br />

also said the prospects for the<br />

current financial year remain<br />

“broadly satisfactory”.<br />

Conversely things were not<br />

looking so good for those<br />

with shares in Enegi Oil. The<br />

Manchester-based oil and gas<br />

exploration group that listed on<br />

AIM in March last week said it<br />

had abandoned one of its wells<br />

after failing to find any<br />

hydrocarbons. The shares fell 31<br />

per cent.<br />

Meanwhile shares in insolvency<br />

specialist Begbies Traynor rose<br />

8.9 per cent. The Manchesterbased<br />

company is one of the<br />

few beneficiaries of the<br />

negative economic<br />

sentiment as this increases the<br />

number of companies getting into<br />

financial difficulty and in turn<br />

boosts Begbies’ business. Last<br />

week it said that more than 600<br />

companies in the North West and<br />

North Wales faced critical<br />

problems in the three months to<br />

the end of June, a near 10-fold<br />

increase over the number in<br />

trouble in the same period a year<br />

earlier. About 15 per cent of these<br />

are expected to go into formal<br />

insolvency.<br />

Things were looking up for those<br />

with shares in Lookers. The<br />

Manchester-based car<br />

dealership has struggled in<br />

recent weeks after saying that<br />

trading was more challenging,<br />

but last week the stock climbed 12<br />

per cent to close at 58p on<br />

Thursday.<br />

Elsewhere shares in Expansys fell<br />

12 per cent. The Manchesterbased<br />

online mobile phone<br />

retailer revealed a tripling of<br />

its pre-tax losses to £2.5m in<br />

the year to April. The company<br />

said that US and UK sales had<br />

been hit by the credit crunch<br />

while Europe was more resilient<br />

and Asian markets were stronger.<br />

It was a good week for Bodycote.<br />

Shares in the Macclesfieldbased<br />

engineering company<br />

climbed 8.9 per cent to close<br />

at 183p. The stock has been<br />

steadily rising since the<br />

company revealed it had made its<br />

first foray into France with the<br />

acquisition of Centech, a<br />

Toulouse-based materials testing<br />

laboratory. Bodycote is also<br />

currently considering bids for its<br />

own thermal testing division,<br />

which it put up for sale with a<br />

price tag of at least £400m in<br />

May.<br />

Shares in ServicePower<br />

Technologies put in a rare<br />

positive performance, climbing<br />

25 per cent after several<br />

weeks of heavy losses.<br />

Analysts may now be starting<br />

to see some value in the<br />

Stockport-based company which<br />

last month announced plans to<br />

move from the main market to<br />

Aim and said it had agreed a new<br />

loan facility to fund the group’s<br />

working capital needs.<br />

Individual Restaurant Company<br />

again had a bad week, with<br />

its shares falling 13 per cent<br />

to 55p. There was no company<br />

specific news to prompt the<br />

decline, but the shares have<br />

been under pressure recently<br />

amid concerns that a slowdown in<br />

consumer spending will mean a<br />

fall in the number of people<br />

choosing to eat out.<br />

● Closing prices as of Thursday.<br />

Taking Stock<br />

BY CLAIRE SHOESMITH<br />

The rollout of one of its catalogues<br />

into Germany next year may be just<br />

the tip of the iceberg for Manchesterbased<br />

home shopping group N<br />

Brown, which has its longer term<br />

sights on North America.<br />

“Germany is all about learning,”<br />

chief executive Alan White told<br />

Crain’s, adding that the company<br />

hopes by next March it will have<br />

adapted its website to enable people<br />

from all over the world to order N<br />

Brown items online. For the German<br />

market it is translating its Spring-<br />

Summer Simply Be catalogue.<br />

White said he expects the move to<br />

add a “few per cent” to group sales,<br />

but more importantly to give the company<br />

an idea of where future demand<br />

growth may come from.<br />

John Stevenson, an analyst at Shore<br />

Capital in Liverpool, welcomed the<br />

development, saying that it required<br />

no capital investment and as such was<br />

a good way to seek to grow the business.<br />

“It’s a relatively easy thing to do,”<br />

he said, adding that a similar move<br />

into Europe has already been successfully<br />

executed by internet clothing<br />

retailer Asos.<br />

Unsure<br />

However, Jonathan Pritchard, an<br />

analyst at Oriel is not so sure about the<br />

move into the USA. “The American<br />

market is a pretty tough market to<br />

crack,” he said, adding that there is a<br />

long list of UK retailers that have tried<br />

and failed. In addition, there are<br />

already several big players in the catalogue<br />

and online clothes<br />

retailing market in the US<br />

such as L.L. Bean and Land’s<br />

End, which already offer<br />

plus-sized clothing.<br />

Still, with an estimated 62<br />

per cent of American females<br />

and 67 per cent of males<br />

classed as overweight,<br />

there is no doubting<br />

the potential for N<br />

Brown’s niche focus<br />

on larger, older customers.<br />

N Brown is<br />

bucking the general<br />

negative<br />

trend in the retail<br />

sector at the moment<br />

thanks to its niche<br />

focus and its suc-<br />

BY CLAIRE SHOESMITH<br />

The share price of Premium Bars &<br />

Restaurants’ collapsed after a forced<br />

stock sale by troubled banking and<br />

property conglomerate Dawnay Day,<br />

its second largest shareholder. But<br />

analysts familiar with the situation<br />

see a silver lining.<br />

“It has traditionally been a very<br />

illiquid stock, with more than 60 per<br />

cent of the shares in the hands of two<br />

stakeholders,” said one City analyst<br />

who declined to be named. “The<br />

forced sale of a near 30 per cent stake<br />

should improve the liquidity as the<br />

shares are likely to be bought by a<br />

series of smaller investors or institutions.”<br />

Mark Jones, executive chairman,<br />

is also hoping that the increased liquidity<br />

will in turn encourage more<br />

individual investors to tap into the<br />

stock and in the long run make it a<br />

more attractive investment. Londonbased<br />

property investors the Reuben<br />

brothers remain the group’s largest<br />

shareholder with a 32.5 per cent<br />

stake.<br />

Premium Bars, which owns the<br />

Living Room and Bel and the Dragon<br />

chains, saw its share fall 45 per cent<br />

on July 18 when Dawnay Day was<br />

N Brown casts<br />

its eye on USA<br />

Catalogue retailer to try on Germany first<br />

cessful adoption of the internet as an<br />

advertising and sales channel.<br />

Last month it<br />

revealed a 12.3 per cent<br />

increase in turnover in<br />

the 17 weeks ended June<br />

<strong>28</strong>, citing the strong sunny<br />

spell in May which<br />

coincided with the mailing<br />

of its summer catalogues.<br />

It said 31 per<br />

cent of total<br />

sales came from<br />

the internet, a<br />

number that White<br />

expects to increase to<br />

about 45 per cent over<br />

the next three years,<br />

Left and top,<br />

clothing from N Brown<br />

forced to offload more than 2m<br />

shares after failing to meet margin<br />

calls on contracts for difference.<br />

“It is not a surprise that the share<br />

price took a battering,” said the analyst.<br />

“The market just needs to think<br />

there is going to be a forced sale and<br />

a share price will fall.” The forced sale<br />

had nothing to do with the performance<br />

of Premium Bars and the disposal<br />

was one of a series of investments<br />

dumped by Dawnay Day<br />

because of its financial difficulties.<br />

Jones told Crain’s it was business<br />

as usual at the company, which has<br />

recently moved its headquarters to<br />

although he would like even more.<br />

“Among our younger customers —<br />

those aged 30-45 — I can see that getting<br />

to between 75 and 80 per cent,”<br />

he said.<br />

Even though the shift into online is<br />

proving good news for N Brown, 53year-old<br />

White said he would be “very<br />

surprised” if the company were to get<br />

rid of its catalogues during his tenure.<br />

Online orders are on average 24 per<br />

cent higher than those made on the<br />

telephone and the company is able to<br />

tailor its advertising to suit the weather<br />

and trends more quickly than in<br />

catalogues, which take several<br />

months to put together. As a result it is<br />

now seeking to increase cross promotion<br />

by encouraging catalogue customers<br />

to look on line for wider product<br />

ranges and reductions.<br />

Still, while the outlook is currently<br />

Hale from Newcastle upon Tyne. Its<br />

finances and future plans remained<br />

unaffected by the share price decline,<br />

he added. Since the drop, the shares<br />

have climbed 3 per cent, and are currently<br />

trading at 35.5p — a marginal<br />

improvement on the 34.5p they hit<br />

on July 18, but well off the 155p level<br />

where they stood at the start of the<br />

year.<br />

“On a day to day basis it does not<br />

affect the business,” Jones said, but<br />

added: “As far as the share price is<br />

concerned we are in completely<br />

uncharted territory.”<br />

Unfortunately for Jones, the com-<br />

Crain’s Manchester Business / July <strong>28</strong>, 20<strong>08</strong><br />

Alan White<br />

rosy — analysts are upbeat on the<br />

company’s prospects — there is one<br />

blip on the horizon. To cater for the<br />

expected growth from the current<br />

5.5m-strong database, N Brown is<br />

seeking to expand both its warehouse<br />

sites at Shaw, near Oldham, and Hadfield.<br />

The initial planning permission<br />

for a £20m expansion at Shaw was<br />

rejected and the company will resubmit<br />

its updated plans in the next<br />

month or so.<br />

If this were to fail too, White said it<br />

could force the group to relocate to a<br />

new site.<br />

COMMENTS? cshoesmith@crain.com<br />

Analysts see silver lining for Premium Bars<br />

Premium Bars & Restaurants executive chairman Mark Jones and The Living Room restaurant in London<br />

pany is in a close period, meaning<br />

that he and the other directors are<br />

not able to buy stock themselves in a<br />

bid to show support for the company<br />

and in turn shore up the share price.<br />

As a result all he can do is sit tight<br />

and wait to see in whose hands the<br />

remaining shares end up. Still, with a<br />

usual average of between 10,000 and<br />

20,000 Premium Bars & Restaurants’<br />

shares trading each day, getting rid of<br />

several million could prove difficult.<br />

Neither Dawnay Day nor the Reuben<br />

brothers returned calls for comment.<br />

COMMENTS? cshoesmith@crain.com

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