pfm sl 121.pdf - ATM Seminar

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Cancellation model calibration:Ground truth data requirements Carrier specificity required:– ASPM “Cancelled Flights”• Scheduled time of arrival (ARRSCHTM)• Scheduled date of arrival (ARRSCHDT)• Carrier (FAACARRIER)• Destination airport (ARR_LOCID) Aggregate:– ASPM “Quarter-Hour Airport Analysis”• CANCARR: number of flights in OAG scheduled toarrive during that quarter hour to a given airport thatwere cancelled for any reason4
Cancellation model calibration:A single model run - profile ATL airport September 15, 2004 All carriersResolution:– Observed: 15 min– Predicted: 60 minAreas undercancellation groupsmatch wellNotice early andlate observedcancellations thatwere not predicted(no correspondingcongestion)Number of cancellations654321PredictedObserved06 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22Hour5
Page 1 and 2: Calibrating Aggregate Models of Fli
Page 6 and 7: Cancellation model calibration:A si
Page 8 and 9: Cancellation model calibration:Cali
Page 12 and 13: Data preparation:Schedule translati
Page 14 and 15: Data preparation:External delays14
Page 16 and 17: Delay model calibration results3530

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