Decadal prediction: Periodicity and its discontents Arthur M. Greene ...
Decadal prediction: Periodicity and its discontents Arthur M. Greene ...
Decadal prediction: Periodicity and its discontents Arthur M. Greene ...
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Summary• Signals that are “sufficiently” regular may be identified,projected forward in time.• Illustrated here: SSA for detection <strong>and</strong> as a b<strong>and</strong>passfilter; linear <strong>prediction</strong> to generate forecasts. Othermodes may be possible.• For the decadal b<strong>and</strong>, 100-yr records are of marginallength, suggesting a role for paleodata.• S/N is a measure of utility.• Helpful, if not essential, to provide a plausible physicalbasis for inferred periodicity.The International Research Institute for Climate <strong>and</strong> Society
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