Decadal prediction: Periodicity and its discontents Arthur M. Greene ...

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Monte Carlo singular spectrum analysis• Eigendecomposition of thelagged covariance matrix.• Eigenvalues constitute thesingular spectrum.• Confidence intervals based oncalibrated AR(1) noise.• Paired eigenvalues of oppositeparity that rise above the CIsuggest the presence of anoscillatory component.• Such a component is indicatedhere at frequency 0.05 yr -1 .The International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Forward projection• Reconstructions of the periodicsignal (blue) are generated ona 100-yr sliding window. (SSAused as a bandpass filter.)• Each is then projected forward10 yr, generating a predictionplume (red).• Predictions anticipate phase ofverifying signal (green) quitewell, as might be expected.• Q: What is “useful” skill?The International Research Institute for Climate and Society
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Page 3 and 4: Signal decomposition• Define forc
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Page 9 and 10: SSA detection and forward projectio
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Decadal prediction: Periodicity and its discontents Arthur M. Greene ...

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