Decadal prediction: Periodicity and its discontents Arthur M. Greene ...

One realization of the conceptual modelRobertson et al. 2001• Forecast of Paraná riverstreamflow, ten-year lead.• Singular spectrum analysis (SSA)used for signal detection againstautocorrelated noise background.• Two components, with periods 8,17 yr, are identified (a).• Each component projectedforward using linear prediction,projections then combined (b).• Categorical hindcast skill claimed.• Interannual variability appears aserror bar.• Periodic behavior attributed tovariability in N. Atlantic and SouthAmerican low-level jet.The International Research Institute for Climate and Society