Decadal prediction: Periodicity and its discontents Arthur M. Greene ...

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Motivation• Sources of low-frequency climate variability– Response to external forcing– Internal, possibly periodic processes– Integration by the ocean of weather noise forcing• These components may be separable and, to differingdegrees, either amenable to prediction or useful forcharacterizing uncertainty in decadal forecasts.The International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Signal decomposition• Define forced component– Linear trend– Globally averaged Ts– Scaled multimodel mean– PC of first S/N-maximizing EOF• Filter interannual variability– Not predictable on decadal time horizons– Implicit contribution to forecast uncertainty• Decadal signal is what remains– Test for periodicity against red-noise H0– Project periodic components forward• Nonperiodic residual assigned to forecast uncertaintyThe International Research Institute for Climate and Society
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