Decadal prediction: Periodicity and its discontents Arthur M. Greene ...

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Real-world example: DJF rainfall for southern Africa• Map: DJF Climatology• Dipolar structure (butextreme SW, with JJAmaximum, is excluded).• Some evidence ofdecadal variations.The International Research Institute for Climate and Society
SSA detection and forward projection• Oscillatory signal detected,period ~ 20 yr.• Forecasts track verificationquite well (ACC), but:• Short length of series rendersskill assessment difficult:– Only 6 verification cycles– Cannot reduce RC length– Behavior of verifying signalsubject to edge effects• Useful role for paleodata.• In Western Cape, rainfall maxoccurs in JJA, where noperiodic signal is detected.• Decadal variance can be usedin uncertainty estimates.The International Research Institute for Climate and Society
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Page 3 and 4: Signal decomposition• Define forc
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Page 7: Forward projection• Reconstructio
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Decadal prediction: Periodicity and its discontents Arthur M. Greene ...

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