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HPV HANDBOOK - Zervita

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3: <strong>HPV</strong> AND CERVICAL CANCER: PUBLIC HEALTH PERSPECTIVESShould men also be vaccinated?Model integrating <strong>HPV</strong>-progress-to-disease-with-ageand <strong>HPV</strong> transmissionModel assumptions• Based on developingcountry demographics• Population growth rate of3% annually• Individuals are eithervaccinated at 15 years ofage or remain susceptibleto <strong>HPV</strong> infection• Sexual activity begins at 15years of age• Population was stratifiedaccording to age (0–85years) and sexual activityclass (i = 1, 2…4), definedaccording to the rate ofsexual partner changeConclusionsMale vaccination would:• Protect women• Protect homosexual men• Expose heterosexual mento risks associated withvaccination, while only aminority might benefit fromprevention of low-incidence<strong>HPV</strong> anogenital and head/neck cancers• Produce small benefits inHSIL and CC reduction• Be most effective at lowvaccine overall coverage(a)BirthsSusceptibleVaccineprotectionVaccine failureRegressionVaccinated(b)BirthsSusceptible0.9Vaccine protection• Coverage• Age at vaccination• TakeVaccine failure• Degree• Duration0.5VaccinatedDeaths from CC<strong>HPV</strong>LSILHSILCCInfectedPersistence0.1CancersurvivorsFigure 3 Modelling the natural history of infection in (a) men and (b) women66

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