Mid-Year Review of the Work Plan for Sudan 2012 - Global ...

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10[1] 2012 IN REVIEW | CHANGES IN THE CONTEXT UNITED NATIONS AND PARTNERSMID YEAR REVIEW | SUDAN WORK PLAN 2012CHANGES IN THE CONTEXTNew challenges emerge as the events of 2012 exacerbate humanitarian needsNATIONALRising tensions between Sudan and SouthSudan spill over into conflictThe Governments of Sudan and South Sudan continuednegotiations in Addis Ababa over the unresolved issues ofthe CPA. The negotiations centred on disagreements overthe transit fee to be paid to Sudan for transporting SouthSudanese oil through the country. This led the South SudaneseGovernment to shut down oil production in late January2012. South Sudan claimed that Sudan had been divertingsignificant portions of the oil for its own use contravening aprevious agreement stipulating that Sudan would be paid inarrears until the two parties agreed on a transit fee.Escalating tensions between the two states, including reportsof sporadic clashes despite the signing of a non-aggressionpact in February, spilled over into full-blown conflict in lateMarch. Fighting along the border areas of South Kordofan,forced thousands of people to flee their homes. The SouthSudan's Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) enteredSudanese territory and occupied the oil-rich border town ofHiglig, including Sudanese oil production facilities that werelater damaged. The Government reported that approximately4,000 people were displaced as a result. Sudan regainedthe territory some ten days later following significant internationalpressure on South Sudan to withdraw. Since then,relations have remained extremely tense between the twonations, although negotiations resumed in Addis Ababa inJune.Economic challenges persistSudan’s economic challenges continued during the first half of2012. South Sudan’s decision to suspend oil production andthe damage to oil production facilities in Higlig has placedsignificant strain on the Government budget and the Sudaneseeconomy. The Government passed a budget for 2012 basedon a ‘worst-case’ scenario of no oil revenues being generatedfrom the transport of South Sudanese oil. This forcedthe government to impose a range of austerity measures toreconcile the budget, which is expected to run at a deficit of3.4% of 2012 gross domestic product (GDP) and may need tobe revised further should oil-related revenue not materialize atexpected levels. The bulk of reductions over the last year havecome from cuts in development spending and federal transfersto state governments for basic service delivery, by 26%and 20% respectively.Sudan has also been affected by currency instability andelevated rates of inflation during 2012. The currency depreciatedsteadily since the secession of South Sudan and loss ofoil revenues; the gap between the official and black marketexchange rate reached an 85% difference in May. In response,the Government had to de facto devalue the currency to closethe gap, thereby increasing the price of imports. The inflationrate, meanwhile, has almost doubled over the last twelvemonths, reaching a high of 30.4% in May, mostly as a result ofhigh food price inflation and the rising import cost of basicgoods. Sudan, as a net importer of food, is particularly vulnerableto price fluctuations in global food markets. Moreover,these trends have been exacerbated by high commodityprices and lower levels of domestic food production in 2012(as reported by the World Food Programme (WFP)) due toongoing conflict in agriculturally productive areas and a poorharvest.SOUTH KORDOFAN AND BLUENILE STATESFighting Continues in the border areasContinuing fighting in South Kordofan and Blue Nile statesduring the first half of the year displaced a large numberof people. Clashes between Government forces and theSPLM-N in El Abbasiya in January temporarily displaced30,000 people, while fighting in the Talodi area forcedapproximately 40,000 people to flee according to the SudaneseRed Crescent Society (SRCS). An estimated 50% of thepeople displaced from Talodi have suffered from multipledisplacements. In Blue Nile, fighting and displacement wasECONOMYGross domestic product and gov't revenuesCurrent dollars, $bngov’t revenueGDPExcluding S. Sudan / estimates604020Gross domestic product per capita Gross dSudan GDP per capita, currend $ GDPEstimates after 2006751622525394 413 4531,6251,5901,4091,3451,4001,223 ● Government revenue ● GDP971Excluding S. Sudan1,9821,731 1,8681,516 1,6296040201990199520002005201020150200020012002200320042005200620071990200820092010 1995201120122000201320142015 20052016201720100Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database (Apr 2012)
UNITED NATIONS AND PARTNERSLIBYA[1] 2012 IN REVIEW | CHANGES EGYPT IN THE CONTEXTMID YEAR REVIEW | SUDAN WORK PLAN 201211reported in many areas, particularly in Bau and Kurmuk localities.Overall, an estimated 520,000 people have been displacedor severely affected in South Kordofan while an estimated145,000 have been displaced or severely affected in BlueNile. In addition, by the end of June, the United Nations HighCommissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that around205,000 Sudanese refugees were located in South Sudanand Ethiopia. South Kordofan was also affected by the fightingbetween Sudan and South Sudan in the oil-producingareas of Higlig in late March. According to the Government,the fighting displaced over 4,000 civilians. Although SouthSudan has since withdrawn from Higlig, the Government hasdeclared a state of emergency in the border areas that is yetto be lifted.Humanitarian access remains a challenge forinternational actorsHumanitarian agencies continued to support humanitarianoperations in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, primarilythrough national staff. International staff movements remainedextremely restricted, although some UN international staff wereable to return to Kadugli – the state capital - in late Februaryafter the Government granted limited duration stay permits.Travel outside Kadugli for international staff has remainedseverely restricted, although for the first time, in June 2012WFP was granted access for international staff to some locationsoutside Kadugli. In Blue Nile, movements outside thestate capital, Ed Damazine, have remained severely restrictedfor both international and national UN staff.International staff members of international non-governmentalorganisations (INGOs) are still not permitted to return to eitherSouth Kordofan or Blue Nile states. Some INGO national staffmembers have been able to continue providing assistance,albeit with limited movement outside state capitals.In February, the African Union, the League of Arab States andthe UN tabled a joint proposal to the Government of Sudanand the SPLM-N to pave the way for humanitarian access toconflict-affected civilians in South Kordofan and Blue Nile,including those in SPLM-N held areas. The SPLM-N agreed tothe proposal in principle in early March, while the Governmentannounced its approval of the initiative on June 27, with implementationmodalities still to be agreed upon.CHADN. DARFURKHARTOUM KASSALA!!!!!! Khartoum Kassala !!GEZIRA!GEDAREF!!W. DARFURN. KORDOFAN!! ! !! ! ! !!Wad Medani!El Geneina!!!!! Gedaref!!! !!! !!! !!!!! El FasherEl ObeidWHITE Singa!! NILE!! !! ! !!! Rabak!!!!SENNAR!! ! !!! !!! Nyala! !! !!!! !!!!!!! ! !!! ! !! !C. DARFUR!!! ! !! !S. KORDOFANEd Damazin! !!!! !!! !!!!!BLUE!!!!!S. DARFUR E. DARFUR KadugliNILE!!!! ! !!!!! !!!CARAbyeiMalakalBentiu!!UPPER NILEAweilSOUTH SUDANUNITYN.B.G WARRABWau WarrabW.B.GJONGLEIRumbekBorLAKESABYEINORTHERNW. EQUATORIAYambioDongolaInternal displacement and refugees in SudanMain refugee camps, IDP and urban refugee locations in SudanSource: OCHA/UNHCR (2011/2012)ETHIOPIAC. EQUATORIASlow progress on Abyei Administration Torit butDRCSudan and South Sudan forces pull UGANDA outKENYAThe political and security situation in Abyei remained tenseover the first half of the year given the stalemate in discussionson the final status of the region and the Abyei Area Administrationhas still not been established. There was progress,however, on the withdrawal of Sudan and South Sudan securitypersonnel from the area following the adoption of UNSecurity Council Resolution 2046. South Sudan withdrew its700 strong police contingent from Abyei and Sudan withdrew300 of its armed forces and police presence in May.Returns to Abyei town commence but accessremains limitedWhile the majority of the 109,000 people who fled Abyei lastyear remain displaced, UNISFA reported that some 9,000people returned to the Abyei area during the first half of 2012.Of these, 7,500 people returned to the outlying villages south ofAbyei town, while around 1,500 people returned to Abyei townin March. The presence of SAF (who have since departed), therisk from landmines and unexploded ordinance (UXO), foodsecurity concerns and the lack of livelihoods opportunitiesremained the main factors hindering large-scale return.There was also displacement into Abyei during the first half ofthe year. Following reports of SAF aerial bombing in Unity State,JubaNILEEd DamerE. EQUATORIAPort SudanRED SEA!ERITREAINFLATION, FOOD PRICES (DARFUR, EAST)Inflation in Sudan in 2011-2012Inflation, food prices, % change (yearly basis)Food prices, Darfur and Eastern SudanMinimum food basket price (in SDG)Inflation (2000-2012)Average consumer prices, % changeJan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12302520151050West North South Darfur●● Kassala ●● Red SeaMay-09Aug-09Nov-09Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Nov-11Feb-122.52.01.51.00.52000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012Estimates after 2010302520151050Source: World Bank, Sudan Country Economic Brief (1/2012); WFP/FAO Food Security Monitoring System (2012); IMF, World Economic Outlook Database (Apr 2012)
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