statisticalrethinkin..

300 11. COUNTING AND CLASSIFICATIONIn FIGURE 11.10, I show these simulated island tool counts. In both plots in this figure,the open black circles are predicted counts for low contact rate, while the filled blue circlesare for high contact rate. e plot on the le represents predicted counts for just modelm10.10, the model with only main effects of both log-pop and contact rate. is modelshows a visible separation between open and filled predictions: high contact islands tend tohave higher counts, although there is still considerable overlap. On the right, the modelaveragedpredictions show practically no visible separation at all. Indeed, there is less visibleseparation in these actual count predictions than there was in FIGURE 11.9, which showedonly predicted means, not actual counts.11.2.1.1. HMC islands. Is it Gaussian still?R code11.35m10.11stan