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396 INDEXRiley et al. (1999), 381, 386Robert (2007), 378, 380, 386Rommel et al. (2007), 380, 386Rubin (2005), 379, 386Savage (1962), 377, 386Schwarz (1978), 380, 386Shannon (1948), 379, 386Shannon (1956), 379, 386Silk et al. (2005), 381, 386Silver (2012), 377, 386Simpson (1951), 379, 386Sober (2008), 376, 386Spiegelhalter et al. (2002), 380, 386Stein (1955), 382, 386Stigler (1981), 379, 386Stone (1977), 380, 386eobald (2010), 377, 386Van Horn (2003), 377, 386Venn (1876), 376, 386Wald (1939), 380, 386Wald (1943), 380, 386Wald (1950), 380, 386Watanabe (2010), 380, 386Wittgenstein (1953), 375, 386Wolpert and Macready (1997), 377, 386AIC, 184Akaike weight, 199Akaike information criterion, 184barplot, 202Bayes factor, 190Bayes’ theorem, 38Bayesian information criterion, 169, 190Bayesian updating, 32beta distribution, 312bias-variance tradeoff, see also overfitting, 176burn-in, 252categorical variable, 154categorical variables, 124centering, 103, 105, 224, 225complete pooling, 337complete-case, 359Conditioning, 209confidence interval, 58consistent, 189credible interval, 58cross-validation, 184cumulative log-odds, 297cumulative logistic, 298data compression, 172data dredging, 205design formula, 161deviance, 168, 182deviance information criterion, 186, 190DIC, 186divergence, see also Kullback-Leibler divergence,180dotchart, 202dummy data, 66dummy variable, 155effective number of parameters, 191exchangeable, 88exponential family, 19, 81factor analysis, 153frequentist, 23gamma-Poisson, 320Gibbs sampling, 241Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, 244highest posterior density interval, 61imputation, 359information criteria, 27, 168, 184information entropy, 179information theory, 27, 82, 178Kullback-Leibler divergence, 180interaction, 210interactions, 124large world, 29likelihood, 35linear model, 98Linear regression, 77log-odds, 297logistic, 273logit, 273logit link, 273loss function, 63Markov chain Monte Carlo, 47maxent, 180maximum a posteriori, 44maximum entropy, 19, 82, 180maximum likelihood estimate, 46MCAR, 359Metropolis algorithm, 241Minimum Description Length, 174Model averaging, 196Model checking, 68Model comparison, 196model selection, 196modus tollens, 19multicollinearity, 145multilevel model, 25multiple comparison, 332multiple membership, 343multivariate regression, 123no pooling, 338