Decision curve analysis

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Illustrative example• Men with raised PSA are referred forprostate biopsy• Free PSA measured• Does free PSA help predict outcome ofbiopsy?
Worked example at p t = 20%N=753 Negative TruepositiveFalsepositiveBiopsy ifrisk ≥20% 384 149 220Biopsyall men 0 192 561Net benefit calculationNetbenefit149 - 220 × (0.2 ÷ 0.8)753 0.1248192 - 561 × (0.2 ÷ 0.8)753 0.0687
Page 1 and 2: Decision curve analysisAndrew Vicke
Page 3 and 4: What am I doing here?Prediction mod
Page 5: How do you know thatprediction mode
Page 8 and 9: ResultsMarker Sensitivity Specifici
Page 10 and 11: ResultsMarker Sensitivity Specifici
Page 12 and 13: Principle• Sensitivity / specific
Page 14 and 15: Youden IndexSensitivity + Specifici
Page 16 and 17: AUC / C indexProbability correct id
Page 18 and 19: Brier Score(D - P) 2
Page 20 and 21: Net Reclassification Index
Page 22 and 23: When is it ever the case inmedicine
Page 24 and 25: Conclusion 1Prediction modelsare wo
Page 26 and 27: CanceraApplymodelBiopsyNo biopsyNo
Page 28 and 29: Threshold probabilityProbability of
Page 30 and 31: Intuitively• The threshold probab
Page 34 and 35: Free PSA
Page 36: Net benefit has simpleclinical inte
Page 39 and 40: Test 2Test 1
Page 41 and 42: Incorporating the harm of atestTrue
Page 44 and 45: Traditionalstatistical analysisTrad
Page 46 and 47: Software for Decision CurveAnalysis
Page 48 and 49: Extensions to decisioncurve analysi

Decision curve analysis

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