Budak Dilli

WORLD OUTLOOKReference Scenario: Energy‐Related CO2 Emissions byFuel50billion tonnes403020Increase of14.3 Gt (55%)1001990 2004 2010 2015 2030Coal Oil GasHalf of the projected increase in emissions comes from new power stations,mainly using coal & mainly located in China & India

WORLD OUTLOOK‐ SUMMARY• TWO ALTERNATIVES:• UNDER-INVESTED, VULNERABLE AND DIRTY,• ADEQUATELY-INVESTED, COMPETITIVE AND CLEAN6

CHALLENGES:• TO HAVE SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO COPE WITH THEINCREASING DEMAND IN AN ENVIRONMENTALLYSUSTAINABLE MANNER.• THE ENERGY RELATED EMISSIONS IS NOT A LOCALOR NATIONAL PROBLEM: CLIMATE CHANGE• THE PROBLEMS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:• FASTER INCREASE, MORE ENERGY NEED, MOREEMISSIONS, EVEN MORE FINANCE NEEDED FOREMISSION REDUCTION7

Emission Reduction45000Technologies that can reduce global CO2 emissions from energycombustion40000Mt CO 235000300002500020000Energy savingsavoided emissions15000Fossil fuel switch10000Renewable energiesNuclear energy5000Carbon sequestrationEmission of reduction case01990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050YES, BUT THE COST OF EMISSION REDUCTION ???8

TURKEY:Main Characteristics Of Energy Sector• High demand increase rate• High investment requirement• Import Dependency• High Energy Intensity• Low Efficiency• High efficiency gain potential• Considerable potential of renewable sources• Emerging Market10

TURKEY –Primary Energy Demand Projection2500001000 TOE2000001500005100010000061000500002500031000240008000002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Coal Petrol N. Gas Hydro Other Renewables NuclearRate of increase % 6,2 90 Mtep 222 Mtep11

INCREASING CONSUMPTION18.000.000OCAR16.000.000ŞUBKAS14.000.00012.000.00010.000.0008.000.0006.000.0004.000.000MART20022003EK2.000.0000NİS20042005EYMAY2006AĞHAZ2007TEM12

TURKEY-Electrical Energy Demand Projection(2006-2020)600TWh500High CaseLow Case499400356406300242216294200174,21000YIL2006 2010 2015 202013

1994‐2004 % INCREASE IN ELECTRICAL ENERGYCONSUMPTION15

ElectricityNew capacity requirement (2020)High scenario• ~ 56.000 MW additionalcapacity needLow scenario• ~ 40.000 MW additionalcapacity need120000100000800006000040000200000Installed capacity in 2020Additional Capacity (MW)Existing Capacity (MW)96 348 MW80 029 MW553483902941000 41000Low DemandHigh Demand16

Investments in Energy Sector• Estimation up to 2020:• Power Generation, Transmission, Distribution• Natural Gas…………………………...2,5 Billion $• Coal…………………………………….5 Billion $• Petroleum……………………………..16 Billion $~105 Billion $• New Power plants, rehabilitation, Pipelines, Naturalgas storage…17

Import Dependency2005 production and importSHARE OF IMPORTS ANDPRODUCTION‐ PROJECTION1201008026%604074%200200520072009201120132015201720192019ProductionimportProductionBusiness As Usual CaseNet Import18

Energy consumption‐ SomeComparisonsGermany- Turkey Primary Energy Consumption(1990-2020) (IEA)Germany-Turkey Electric Generation(1990-2030)kaynak:ieaMtpe4003503002502001501005001990 2002 2003 2010 2020Türkiye 53,01 75,58 78,95 125,59 222,27Almanya 356,2 346 347,1 337,4 308,6Twh70060050040030020010001990 2002 2003 2010 2020 2030Türkiye 57,54 129,4 141,151 242,02 481,38Almanya 547,7 566,9 594,3 622,5 600 589,519

ENERGY AND EMISSIONS:GROSSCONSUMPTIONEmission(millon tonCO 2-eq)Emissionper Capita1990 57,5 170,1 3,032004 150,7 296,6 4,13(*)% 162 74 36(*)World Average: 4.24 , OECD Average: 15.620

EMISSION SCENERIOS:700600500400300Milyon Ton20010002005 2010 2015 2020Reference 241 350 451 605Low Demand 241 322 413 510DSM 241 334 421 538Wîthout Nuclear 241 350 462 61721

POLICIES• Energy security• New investments to cope with increasing demand• Reduce import dependency, diversification• Increase the utilisation of Local Sources• Establishing Functioning markets based on competition• Environmental sustainability :• Renewable Energy: Wind, Hydro, Geothermal, Solar, Biofuels• Clean Coal Technologies, Carbon Capture & Storage• Efficiency Increase• Nuclear Energy (5000 MW until 2020)UNFCC (Turkey became a Party in 2004)22

Renewables• Second largest contributor to the primary production In 2006 12% of TPES was supplied from renewable sources25% of total electricity production was from renewablesources (43736 GWh)• Aim: to keep and further increase renewable share inenergy balance(80 % increase in supply from renewables until 2020 )• Utilization of the remaining hydro resources until 2023– 37 % being utilized at present, 18% under construction (Total35000 MW, Today 13000 MW)• > 10 000 MW Additional Wind (Today 250 MW, 500MW under Construction))23

NEW INVESTMENT : LICENCED PROJECTS200001800016000TTOAL:17766 MWTOTAL: 23078 MW (MARCH 2008)THERMAL14000120008171MW100008000600040007560TOTAL:5312 MW1672HYDRO2000019842035 1656LICENCEDTO BE LICENCEDWIND24

NEW PROJECTS, EXPECTED COMMISSIONING YEARS45004000MW3500THERMAL1372300088125002000HYDRO7451500100041423852633050033112157713541134WIND048437014 0 0 02008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201325

Energy Efficiency• Energy conservation potential up to the 30% was defined in end usesectors.• Energy Efficiency Law was adopted in the Turkish Grand NationalAssembly,• To increase the energy efficiency awareness through media, training inschools, contest, informative billing etc.• To set up administrative structure and mechanism for energy efficiencyservices• To promote the energy services activities in the market• To promote renewables and cogeneration for the protection environment(Cogeneration installed capacity: 4476 MW, i.e. 11% of total installed capacity as ofApril 2007.)• Incentives and obligations to decrease energy intensity• Demand side measures , incentives• Measures for production & supply26