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Global mean ocean temperature. HadISST observationsprovided by UKMO/Hadley Centre (black curve).IPCC-AR4 simulation by CNRM-CM3.1 (blue).Simulation by CNRM-CM3.2 (green).Yellow, orange and red: same model, but withland use changes and different ocean initial conditions.1Température de surface de l’océan (°C)19.51918.51817.517Océan global20C3M/Commit20C3M+Aer2OC3M+Aer+L.use 12OC3M+Aer+L.use 22OC3M+Aer+L.use 3Had.C.Data16.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Années Computation of tropical cycloneformation probability for the ERA40 reanalysis.2 3JJAS 1997-clim V200 (m/s)ERA40No nudging/obs SST R=-0.03ab Observed (a) and simulated (b,c,d) 200 hPameridional wind anomalies averaged between Juneand September 1997. Three ensembles madeof 30 simulations are compared:b) control experiment without nudgingand driven by observed SST,c) experiment nudged within the Tropicsand driven by climatological SST,d) experiment nudged within the Tropicsand driven by observed SST. R is the spatial correlationbetween observed and simulated anomalies northof 30° N. Green contours show the 1971-2000climatology of the 200 hPa zonal wind (differentfor the experiments with and without nudging).Tr nudging/clim SST R=-0.60Tr nudging/obs SST R=-0.71cd-4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 429 . Research and development: annual report 2007
52010520510555510a Ratio between the numberof summer heat wave days(number of days when temperatureis 5 °C above normal for more than5 consecutive days) for 2021-2050and the corresponding number inthe reference period 1961-1990.Scenarios A1B (a), A2 (b) and B1 (c).bc530°40°50°7 6 5 4 3 2 150°40°30°50°540°40°22552551054350° 0°10° a : map of the warming en °Cb : drying in mm/d for the end of the 21 st century (2070-2099 period versus 1961-1990)in summer (June-July-August)20°30°30°Indices of extreme events over France in the latestregional scenarios 2021-2050The IPCC 4 th assessment report has requiredcoupled ocean-atmosphere simulations thathave enabled to produce a third generation ofregional scenarios for France. After doublingcarbon dioxide experiments (late 1990 s) andA2 and B2 scenarios of Gicc programme (early2000 s), a new set of three scenarios A1B, A2and B1 has been made recently available. Forthe first time, these simulations address thequestion of the climate for the first half of the21 st century.For the forthcoming next decades, the mainconcern is not a moderate mean warming, butthe evolution of the frequency of extreme phenomena.From the above mentioned threeFollowing the last two IPCC reports (2001,2007), the Mediterranean area has been pointedout as one of the main “hot spots” for a climatechange during the 21 st century. Thevarious global climate models also agree verywell about that area. This leads to robustresults concerning the general warming anddrying of the Mediterranean basin. Thesechanges will be stronger in summer.To obtain high-resolution information aboutthe climate change in this area, the CNRM hasbeen developing for some years a high-resolutionregional version of the ARPEGE/OPA coupledmodel. This Atmosphere-Ocean RegionalClimate Model (AORCM) is the first modelwhich takes into account the air-sea couplingat high resolution for the Mediterranean area.The two coupled models are ARPEGE and OPAas for the CNRM-CM3 IPCC global models buttheir spatial resolution over the area of interestsimulations at 50 km resolution over France, wehave estimated the frequency of summer heatwaves (figure 4), the intensity of heavy rainfalland the duration of dry spells for the period2021-2050. Amidst the spread of model responseswhich result from the unpredictableinter-annual variability, three characteristic featuresarise, which were emphasized for the endof 21 st century in Imfrex: increase in heat wavesand droughts, paradoxical increase (sincemean precipitation decreases) in intensity forthe events above 20 mm/day.Studies on these data will carry on, in order toupdate the results about strong winds and surfacehydrology. 4Climate change simulationof the Euro-Mediterranean area using a dedicatedatmosphere-ocean regional climate modelis enhanced to 50 km in the atmosphere andto 10 km in the sea. A 140-year simulation(1960-2099) has been carried out with themodel following the A2 SRES hypothesis forthe 21 st century.A high-resolution description of the warmingand drying of the Mediterranean and southernEurope area is obtained thanks to the simulation(figure a). This model also allows to quantifythe warming, saltening (figure b) and sealevel rise of the Mediterranean Sea. The futureof the Mediterranean regional coupled climatemodels will take place in the European CIRCEproject with the inter-comparison of 6 differentAORCMs. This will lead to a better assessmentof the climate change uncertainty range for theMediterranean basin.These AORCMs are also seen as key numericaltools in the framework of the future HyMExproject. 5Heavy precipitationMediterranean eventsin a future climate,a preview…The national CYPRIM project, started in2005, provides a multidisciplinary frameworkaimed at heavy precipitation events(HPE) studies. One objective of CYPRIM is toassess the evolution of the related hazardlinked with the climate change. The worksummarized here is a better identification ofthe present climate and the development ofan objective automatic detection of suchevents for future climate simulations. It hasbeen achieved through a collaboration between3 CNRM sections within 3 differentgroups.The main task has involved combining rainfalldata from the Météo-France network togetherwith a reference data bank of weather fields(ERA40) obtained at ECMWF. A set of 1210significant precipitation events has been collectedand their large-scale environment havethen been constructed using statistical automaticclassification algorithms. This yieldsweather patterns related to the various zonesof the average climatology of rainfall in thearea. A close look at the statistical relationshipreveals that only 2 weather patterns arelinked to HPE. The meteorological ingredientsthat characterize HPE can then be highlighted.They lead to an algorithm that enables todetect favourable conditions that can lead toHPE from the dynamical information alone.The number of cases detected does notchange much between now and the end ofthe century (A2 emission scenario). In thefuture climate composite of HPE, only thewarm moist influx seems to take a more systematicpreferred south westerly orientation(see figure).High resolution simulations of present andfuture climate cases will allow detailed examinationof possible evolutions of the localrainfall amounts or of the HPE structure.630 . Research and development: annual report 2007
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Page 3 and 4: Several papers in the following ann
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Page 7 and 8: Estimation of forecasterrors with a
Page 9 and 10: Meso scale NWPSince september 2007,
Page 11 and 12: Tests of a turbulentcanopy schemein
Page 13 and 14: New generation observationsand meso
Page 15 and 16: Cyclonic forecastingA specific cycl
Page 17 and 18: AmmaAfter the intensive observation
Page 19 and 20: 5 Time-latitudediagram of ECMWFanal
Page 21 and 22: MeteorologicalprocessOne cannot und
Page 23 and 24: 4Routine20 juin 2007 à 21 h TU Top
Page 25 and 26: The programme ECOCLIMAP-II:a new la
Page 27 and 28: Taux de détection100806040200-0,5-
Page 29: Climate andclimate changes studiesT
Page 33 and 34: Atmosphereand environmentstudiesIn
Page 35 and 36: Extension of the reanalysisof the h
Page 37 and 38: Oceanography(modelling and instrume
Page 39 and 40: The moored buoys10The open ocean bu
Page 41 and 42: 15 Instrumentation for humidity and
Page 43 and 44: Atmospheric chemistry and air quali
Page 45 and 46: 22ab50 hPa wind analyses (reference
Page 47 and 48: Avalanches and snow cover studiesA
Page 49 and 50: Instrumentationfor ResearchThe inst
Page 51 and 52: On site instrumentation and teledet
Page 53 and 54: Instrumentation duringthe COPS camp
Page 55 and 56: Communicationand promotionCNRM comm
Page 57 and 58: Appendix2007 scientific papers list
Page 59 and 60: Joly M., A. Voldoire, H. Douville,
Page 61 and 62: Moisselin J.-M. et S. Jourdain, 200
Page 63 and 64: GlossaryOrganismsAASQA Associations
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