Proposed Power Development Plan (PDP) 2012 - Palang Thai

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Proposed Power Development Plan (PDP) 2012and a Framework for Improving Accountability and Performance of Power Sector Planningpower transmission and distribution infrastructure – investments which eat up budgets, adding over 40% on top ofthe investment cost of electricity generation. 6The PDP 2010 did take into account savings from energy efficiency but the only program incorporated was the T5light replacement program which is estimated to yield a savings of 0.3% of total load by 2030. This amount isextremely small compared to the real potential and to what has been done elsewhere in the world. Figure 4 sh owsa comparison in the level of investment in energy efficiency in the Pacific Northwest, USA. versus Thailand. Thepotential to invest more in EE in Thailand is immense, given that it is the cheapest and cleanest option to meetdemand.Figure 4: R o le of EE/DSM in power sector planning: the Pacific Northwest, USA and Thailand, with energy savingsmeasured in GWh/year. Note, the y-axis in both graphs is identical. In the Pacific Northwest, new EE/DSMmeasures are still considered to be the cheapest and cleanest choice of power supply options even after 30 yearsof successful implementation of past energy efficiency measures. In the most recent Sixth Northwest Conservationand Electric Power Plan (Northwest Power Planning Council 2010) about 85% of increase in electricity demand ismet through investments in EE/DSM. Thailand on the other hand included only 0.3% of accumulated energysavings in the approved PDP 2010. Much more potential has yet to be tapped.Foran, Du Pont et al. (2009) carefully document how an additional 14,000 GWh/yr of annual energy savings inThailand could be secured by the year 2026 through residential energy efficiency measures aimed at five keyhousehold appliances. For these appliances, savings equal to 28% of baseline consumption after 20 years could beobtained through simple measures such as tightening standards of appliance efficiencies of air-conditioners,refrigerators, fans, rice cookers and compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs).Energy efficiency savings opportunities in industry and commercial buildings are much higher than in the residentialsector. These savings opportunities are captured in the Thai Government’s 20-year Energy Efficiency DevelopmentPlan (Table 5), which targets an annual energy savings of nearly 70,000 GWh by the year 2030. Of this 70,000 GWh,the residential figure of about 19,000 GWh/year is roughly commensurate with the projection for year 2026 byForan and Du Pont.6For example, the PDP 2010 investment budget for transmission upgrade added an additional 40% on top of the generationinvestment budget (Source: EGAT, PDP 2010). In addition, Metropolitan Electricity Authority and Provincial Electricity Authorityhave their own distribution investment plans and budgets that correspond to the expansion planned in the PDP 2010.15
Proposed Power Development Plan (PDP) 2012and a Framework for Improving Accountability and Performance of Power Sector PlanningEnergy savings indifferent sectorsHeatktoeTechnical potential Target Target electricityElectricityGWhtotalktoeYear 2030ktoesavings in 2030*GWhTransport 16,250 - 16,250 13,400 0Industrial sector 10,950 33,500 13,790 11,300 27,451Large commercialbuildingsSmall commercialbuildings & residential410 27,420 2,740 2,300 23,0171,690 23,220 3,670 3,000 18,981Total 29,300 84,140 36,450 30,000 69,251% of total 2030 power consumption as projected by PDP 2010 20%*The EE plan has a 20% energy target. Here we assume the electricity target is also 20% compared to total projected demand.Table 6: Governmen t’s energy saving target. The government approved the 20-year Energy Efficiency Plan inApril 2010 which called for almost 70,000 GWh of annual electricity savings or 20% of total load by 2030. Source:(Energy 2011) and (Foongthammasan, T ippichai et al. 2011)The PDP 2010 made no mention of the 20-year Energy Efficiency Development Plan because the latter wasapproved after the PDP 2010 was issued. To ensure consistency of different government energy plans, our proposedPDP 2012 adopts the target of 20% savings compared to baseline consumption (the adjusted demand projections)for year 2030. The 20% target is consistent with the overall target of savings for the various energy sub-sectors setforth in the 20-year Energy Efficiency Development Plan.Renewable energyAccording to Thailand’s Very Small Power Producer (VSPP) regulations, electricity that is considered “renewableenergy” includes electricity generated from the sun, wind, biomass, biogas, waste (municipal, agricultural, orby-products of industrial processes), mini- and micro-hydroelectricity, sea or ocean waves and geothermal energy(EPPO 2006). Currently the vast majority of Thailand’s renewable electricity is produced under the Very SmallPower Producer (VSPP) and Small Power Producer (SPP) programs in which private-sector operators produce andsell electricity to the grid and receive technology-specific premium prices for renewable energy.Online (MW)signed PPA (MW)VSPP SPP VSPP SPPBiomass 783 614 1,961 5Biogas 70 0 126 0Solar 67 0 2,020 90Municipal waste 39 0 130 0Small hydro 1 13 6 0Wind 0.4 0 72 267Other 0 54 0 0Total 1,017 681 4,260 362Grand Total 1,698 4,622Table 7: VSPP and SPP renewable energy installed and with signed PPAs as of September 2011. Compiled fromdata at: http://www.eppo.go.th/power/data/index.html16
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Proposed Power Development Plan (PDP) 2012 - Palang Thai

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