Proposed Power Development Plan (PDP) 2012 - Palang Thai

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Proposed Power Development Plan (PDP) 2012and a Framework for Improving Accountability and Performance of Power Sector PlanningPower plants to bedecommissioned in PDP 2010MWPlant life atdecommissioningExtended life to delaydecommissioning andconstruction of newplants*Ratchaburi TH # 1-2 1,440 25 30Ratchaburi CC # 1-2 1,360 25 30Ratchaburi CC # 3 681 25 30*-Only in cases where life extension in needed to keep reserve margin above 15% Ohterwise, plants are retired asscheduled.-Plant life extension may require additional investments and time to maintain and pgrode equipment. The time andresources required to extend plant life ane usually significantly less than buiding a new one. However, more detailedassessment should be done on a case to ensure technical and economic feasibility of plant life extension.-May negotiate PPA extension with IPPs taking into account system requirement, condition power plants, and willingnessof IPPsTable 14: List of power plants scheduled to retire during the PDP 2010, some of which are considered for lifeextension in the PDP 2012 as an economic investment option to add generation capacity. Data source: (EGAT 2010).Results: the PDP 2012 and the PDP 2010 comparedBased on the key assumptions and methodology discussed above, the PDP 2012 is very different than EGAT’s PDP2010. The differences in resource mix in these plans leads to significant differences in overall costs, reliance onimports, promotion of renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions, heath and environmental impacts, andelectricity bills paid by consumers. These are explored in detail below.Resource mix: PDP 2012 vs. PDP 2010PDP 2012 calls for a very different resource mix compared to the PDP 2010 (Figure 5). Notable differences includethe reduction in capacity needed because of forecast correction in the PDP 2012, the lack of nuclear power,reduction in natural gas power plants as they retire, and lack of growth in coal generation. These large-scale fossilfuel sources are replaced with considerable generation expansion in cogeneration and EE/DSM.Figure 5: Supply resources in the PDP2 010 vs PDP 2012.27
Proposed Power Development Plan (PDP) 2012and a Framework for Improving Accountability and Performance of Power Sector PlanningPDP 2010 PDP 2012Project (MW)Capacity already online since 2010(as of Oct 2011)Year Installed(MW)Project (MW)Capacity already online since 2010(as of Oct 2011)YearInstalled(MW)ReserveMarginNam Theun 2North Bangkok CC # 1Nam Ngum 2Additions of capacityconsidered “clean” or in thepipelineSPP – cogenerationSPP – renewablesVSPPEGAT renewablesGheco One (IPP)Theun Hinboun ExpansionWang Noi CC#4 (EGAT)Bang Lang Dam ExpansionLam Ta Kong (pump storage)Other capacity additionsGas CC 17 unitsCoal 13 unitsHydro (imports)Lignite (imports)Nuclear 5 units9206705977,3401,0452,5673366602208001250013,47915,2007,7408,0901,8425,00037,872200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203029,21231,34932,99234,17137,00239,72039,99041,41942,37442,61944,29044,84347,61848,98251,23552,53352,73856,95756,83061,35563,82465,547Nam Theun 2North Bangkok CC # 1Nam Ngum 2Additions of capacity alreadyincluded in PDP 2010SPP – cogenerationSPP – renewablesVSPPEGAT renewablesGheco One (IPP)Theun Hinboun ExpansionWang Noi CC#4 (EGAT)Bang Lang Dam ExpansionLam Ta Kong (pump storage)Other resource additionsEE/DSMCogenerationPlant life extension(retiring after 2030)*9206705977,3401,0452,5673366602208001250013,4799,9234,8003,10417,827200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203029,21231,35032,99333,40333,45732,51332,75733,43834,25334,66235,23236,62637,30137,56537,22637,21536,42837,14737,96136,52737,89635,57927.6%26.7%33.9%31.0%27.6%20.9%19.2%19.3%20.2%19.7%20.2%23.3%24.3%23.9%21.8%20.9%18.0%20.1%22.7%18.1%23.7%15.9%Generation capacity as of December 2009 29,212Total capacity added during 2010 – 2030 54,005Total capacity decommissioned during -17,6712010-2030Total capacity at the end of 2030 65,547*Additional 12,543 MW was extended but retired by 2030**Excluding savings from EE/DSMGeneration capacity as of December 2009 29,212Total capacity added during 2010 – 2030 20,934Total capacity decommissioned during 2010-2030 -14,567Total capacity at the end of 2030 35,579(Excluding 10,158 MW savings from EE/DSM)Table 15: Comparison of resource additions through year 2030 in PDP 2010 vs. PDP 2012Details of the PDP 2012 are summarized in Table 15. The PDP 2012 analysis finds that 55 power plant projects ofvarious types (nuclear, coal, gas CC, hydro imports and lignite-fired imports) included in the PDP 2010 areunnecessary to maintain the reliability of the system (15% minimum reserve margin). These projects are removedfrom the lineup in the PDP 2012 (Table 16).28
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