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Safe Enough to Stay - ABAG Earthquake and Hazards Program

Safe Enough to Stay - ABAG Earthquake and Hazards Program

Safe Enough to Stay - ABAG Earthquake and Hazards Program

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Section IV:Applicability <strong>to</strong> otherjurisdictionsSan Francisco is not the only jurisdiction in the Bay Area that isat risk of a seismic event. The United States Geological Surveyestimates that there is a 63 percent chance of a major earthquakeoccurring in the Bay Area some time in the next 30 years. TheHayward Fault is the most likely <strong>to</strong> rupture, causing massive damagein the East Bay.Much of the work developed for this report <strong>and</strong> prior SPUR reportsis applicable <strong>to</strong> other seismically vulnerable jurisdictions. Otherjurisdictions could implement the following set of recommendations <strong>to</strong>increase seismic resilience.1. Define resilience <strong>and</strong> develop a specific target forhousing performance.In our 2009 report “Defining What San Francisco Needs from ItsSeismic Mitigation Policies,” SPUR developed performance targetsfor buildings <strong>and</strong> lifelines, including a goal of 95 percent shelter inplace for housing. This approach of setting a defined <strong>and</strong> ambitiousgoal for community recovery has resonated with policymakers<strong>and</strong> the technical community. Other jurisdictions could take theseperformance targets <strong>and</strong> adapt them <strong>to</strong> meet their own needs.2. Complete inven<strong>to</strong>ries of vulnerable housing s<strong>to</strong>ck.Creating inven<strong>to</strong>ries will be a critical first step. SPUR’s analysis <strong>and</strong>recommendations for San Francisco build on reliable data <strong>and</strong> lossestimates produced by SPUR committees, the local engineeringcommunity <strong>and</strong> the CAPSS project. Other jurisdictions might need<strong>to</strong> undertake similar building counts <strong>and</strong> mapping exercises <strong>to</strong> relatestructure types <strong>and</strong> geologic hazards <strong>to</strong> residential occupancies <strong>and</strong>demographics.4. Make use of the shelter-in-place evaluation criteriaproposed in Section II of this report.SPUR has called for the further development of these criteria, whichcan be applied in other jurisdictions seeking <strong>to</strong> evaluate their housings<strong>to</strong>ck for shelter-in-place performance. In particular, the proposedcriteria apply jurisdiction-specific maps <strong>and</strong> default values. Otherjurisdictions can begin developing similar data now, even as SanFrancisco works on completing the generic criteria. In addition, SanFrancisco has worked with FEMA <strong>to</strong> produce a new engineeringmethodology specifically for the cost-effective evaluation <strong>and</strong> retrofi<strong>to</strong>f wood-frame soft-s<strong>to</strong>ry apartment buildings.5. Build on the work being done by SanFrancisco’s Lifelines Council <strong>to</strong> analyze utilityinterdependency.San Francisco has convened a council of all utility providers withinfrastructure serving San Francisco. As part of its work, the LifelinesCouncil is conducting a study of the interdependency betweenutilities such as electricity, water, sewer, communications <strong>and</strong>transportation <strong>to</strong> uncover potential weaknesses in these systemsthat could cause cascading impacts after an earthquake if they arenot adequately planned for. Once complete, this study will includefindings that will be of use <strong>to</strong> other parts of the region, since manyutilities are regional in scope.6. Make use of the post-earthquake alternativeshelter-in-place habitability st<strong>and</strong>ards proposed inthis report.Each jurisdiction will need <strong>to</strong> develop alternative shelter-in-placehabitability st<strong>and</strong>ards in order <strong>to</strong> encourage sheltering in place.The timeline in Figure 6 (page 28) can serve as the basis for thesest<strong>and</strong>ards. Materials developed in San Francisco (for example, theshelter-in-place graphic illustrations <strong>and</strong> checklist) can help otherjurisdictions create comparable materials.3. Develop procedures <strong>to</strong> retrofit vulnerable housingtypes.Building on the work done in CAPSS, San Francisco is developing adetailed program <strong>to</strong> both evaluate <strong>and</strong> retrofit soft-s<strong>to</strong>ry wood-framemultifamily housing with five or more units <strong>and</strong> three or more s<strong>to</strong>ries.Other jurisdictions may have comparable types of vulnerable housing.As San Francisco develops evaluation <strong>and</strong> retrofit st<strong>and</strong>ards, otherjurisdictions can adapt these <strong>to</strong> meet their needs.SPUR Report > January 2012 31

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