NEW SEED TRANSFER POLICY FOR WESTERN LARCH

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeWESTERN LARCH PROJECT TEAM Alvin Yanchuk Barrie Phillips Barry Jaquish Denise McGowan Greg O’Neill John Harkema Kathy Hopkins Kevin Astridge Lee Charleson Leslie McAuley Matt LeRoy Michael Postma Shirley Mah Spencer Reitenbach Susan Zedel3

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeCONTENTS Tree Improvement Branch background Policy process Newly developed policy for western larch (Larixoccidentalis)4

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeINTRODUCTION Tree Improvement Branch(TIB) TIB’s mission is to protect,manage, and conserve BritishColumbia’s forest geneticresources 40 orchards consisting of 9species and 47,000 trees Tree Seed Centre ,processes over 95% ofprovince’s cones and seed5

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeTIB POLICY AND PLANNING Develop and administer provincial policies respecting tree seedand genetic resource management (GRM), including the ChiefForester's Standards for Seed Use. These standards serve tomaintain the identity, adaptability, diversity and productivity ofthe Province’s forest genetic resources.6

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeRECENT POLICY New seed transfer policyfor the assisted rangeand population expansionof western larch for useas a climate changeadaptation strategy in BC7

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONClimate Action SecretariatVision – “British Columbia isprepared for and resilient to theimpacts of climate change.”“Make adaptation a part of theGovernment of BritishColumbia’s business, ensuringthat climate change impacts areconsidered in planning anddecision‐making acrossgovernment.”8

BC Ministry of Forests and RangePOLICY PROCESSBuild a team1. Issueidentification7. Evaluation2. Research andissue analysis6. Implementation3. Generatingsolutions5.Recommendations/ final approval4. Consultation9

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeSTARTING POINTBuild a teamPeople were selected from a cross section of expertiseRoles and responsibilities were definedTimelines and resources were acknowledgedSome of those involved in the implementation were brought into thediscussions much later in the process10

BC Ministry of Forests and Range1. ISSUE IDENTIFICATION Divisional priority “to advance climate-basedseed transfer “ Western larch Facilitated migration of species is a silviculturetool for enhancing ecological complexity andensuring the species pace matches expectedrate of climate change11

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeWESTERN LARCH Western larch is desirablefor introduction becauseof its rapid early growth,desirable wood propertiesand generalist mode ofadaptation. Has been planted innumerous operationaland research plantings.12

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeWESTERN LARCH13

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeWESTERN LARCH14

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeWESTERN LARCHPhotos provided by B.Jaquish15

BC Ministry of Forests and Range2. RESEARCH AND ISSUE ANALYSIS Policy recommendations based upon recentlypublished analysis in Rehfeldt and Jaquish,2010* Using bioclimate models, provenance test dataand a computer-simulated decisionclassification key of the presence-absence ofwestern larch predicted under future climatescenarios* Ecological impacts and management strategies for western larch inthe face of climate change" (March, 2010, Mitigation and AdaptationStrategies for Global Change; ISSN 1381-2386, Volume 15, Number3)16

BC Ministry of Forests and Range3. GENERATING SOLUTIONS Incremental solution, expand western larch useprojected for the year 2030 Implementation is optional Applies to orchard seed only Determined some constraining factors –related to modelling, maximum percent of treesplanted annually by licensee Applied a risk rating to the options17

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeAPPLIED A RISK RATING TO THE AREAS The maps indicate the extent and distribution(potential seed deployment areas) of westernlarch projected to the year 2030 based onmodel concurrence. The maps of areas inwhichLow risk• Three models and greaterModerateriskHigh risk• Two models only• One model only18

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeAPPLIED A RISK RATING TO THE AREAS What are the maps? Raster data originated fromRandom Forest simulations and regression analyses ofthe presence/absence of the species and geneticvariation within the species projected into futureclimates provided by: three General Circulation Models (GCM) - CGCM3, HadCM3and CM2.1; and two Greenhouse Gas Emission (GHG) scenarios - A2and B1/B2. Model concurrence included up to a maximum of 6“models” from Rehfeldt and Jaquish, March 2010.19

WESTERN LARCH 2030 PROJECTION,THREE MODELS OR GREATER, MODELCONCURRENCEBC Ministry of Forests and Range 20

WESTERN LARCH 2030 PROJECTION, TWOMODELS OR GREATER, MODELCONCURRENCEBC Ministry of Forests and Range 21

WESTERN LARCH 2030 PROJECTION, ONEMODEL OR GREATER, MODELCONCURRENCE

BC Ministry of Forests and Range4. CONSULTATION Engage stakeholder groups –industry, academia, localassociations andorganizations, and Ministryspecialists Review package consisted ofsummary of the research,maps and a questionnaire Review period planned for 3weeks23

BC Ministry of Forests and Range4. CONSULTATION - QUOTES “The concurrence of models does not represent truerisk” vs “Risk is spread out in manageable sets” vs“...acceptance of greater uncertainty is needed...Isuggest more risk taking” “The uncertainty associated with all of these GCMs isconsiderable” “I have hesitation regarding assisted migration. Thisshould be one strategy as a part of a suite...” “Completely agree with the cautious rather than overlyaggressive approach” “What about suitability beyond 2030” vs “As an interimmeasure, I support this proposal”24

BC Ministry of Forests and Range4. CONSULTATION – KEY FINDINGS General support for assisted range and populationexpansions Management goals and objectives to maintain andenhance adaptation, diversity and forest productivity A conservative approach is warranted Seed deployment requires an understanding of risk inthe context of managing for uncertainty Reporting and monitoring are important tools foradaptive management Policy should integrate tree species selection Climate change adaptation presents opportunities25

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeSUMMARY OF THE CONSULTATIONSpanning spatio-temporalscalesTaking measured stepsManaging for uncertaintyIdentifying climaticallysuitable areas / sitesUnderstanding simplicityversus accuracyLearning from ourmistakes• Planting stock for both a contemporary and futureclimate• Implementing Lw seed use interim measuresincrementally• Managing risk based on sources of uncertainty• Bringing clarity to the genetic and ecological interface• Being flexible - working with what we know / don’t know• Testing outside the boundaries /going beyond ourcomfort zone26

BC Ministry of Forests and Range5. RECOMMENDATIONS AND FINAL APPROVAL Recommendations were finalized andpresented to the chief forester27

BC Ministry of Forests and Range5. RECOMMENDATIONS AND FINAL APPROVAL Approval was given for policy amendments of Creation of 3 new western larch seed planningzones based upon model concurrence of 2 modelsor greater A limit of up to 10 % western larch seedlings in aperson’s planting program annually Small operators can plant up to 10% or 5,000seedlings annually28

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeNEW WESTERN LARCH SEED PLANNING ZONES29

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeNEW WESTERN LARCH SEED PLANNING ZONES30

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeNEW WESTERN LARCH SEED PLANNING ZONES31

BC Ministry of Forests and Range6. IMPLEMENTATIONNew western larch policyannouncement was publishedin the BC Gazette on June 3,2010, takes effect in 4 monthsOver the next four monthsidentify suitable seedlots, postmaps / shape files, and datafixes in the seed informationsystemProvide training / extensionDevelop guidance on stockingand ecological suitability32

BC Ministry of Forests and Range7. EVALUATION Requires monitoring to enable adaptivemanagement33

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeFINAL COMMENTS The western larch policy amendments areconsidered interim Climate-based seed transfer (or moreappropriately climate-based forest regenerationincluding tree species and seed selection,transfer and deployment)34

BC Ministry of Forests and RangeWEBSITES Climate Action Secretariat http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/index.html Western larch policy announcement http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/code/cfstandards/amendmentJun10.htm My email Lee.Charleson@gov.bc.ca35