great lakes-st. lawrence seaway new cargoes/new vessels market

Great Lakes-St. Lawrence SeawayNew Cargoes/New Vessels - Market Assessment2.5 KEY STUDY OUTPUTSThe study provided a wide range of data including the results of the stated preferencesurveys, the final model calibration estimates of the competitiveness of the GLSLS Systemfor new cargoes (new neo-bulk and container) under different pricing structures, vesseltechnologies and infrastructure strategies. The market potential for new cargoes and newvessels was identified, projections of cargo volumes and revenue were developed, customerpreferences were identified, and strategies to improve the GLSLS service and measures ofits competitiveness were developed.Study deliverables included –• Cargo composition profiles for the GLSLS System showing variations in use. Theprofile identified volumes, values, and transportation characteristics of each cargotype by each traffic. This data was collected during the shipper profile analysis thatwas completed as part of the stated preference survey. The data was edited, coded,and stored in the demand model for use in the demand forecasting process. It wasdirectly output from the model’s databank and estimated market shares for theGLSLS System were produced as a result of calibrating the demand model.• Base and forecast year networks specifying generalized times, costs and interchangepenalties for cargo movements. These were suitably weighted by industrialdistributions for each zone pair for the whole zone system. This is a direct output ofthe edited data files in the demand model.• Base and forecast year equilibrium steady state market shares. These were given onan annual basis over the life of the project, drawn from the demand model. Theforecasts and modal split estimates showed the growth in cargo and how long it willtake to reach equilibrium or steady state conditions.• Estimates of container markets in terms of current size, historic trends, and longtermannual forecasts through 2050.• An analysis of the trends in movement costs and service levels for the period 2004 to2050. This analysis was an integral part of the strategy formulation process,considered changes, or emerging trends (e.g., capacity limitations) in transportationconditions for each competitive mode of transportation analyzed and the potentialimpact on the GLSLS System.• A composite set of cargo and revenue forecasts for all city-pairs and routes,incorporating sensitivity tests for each economic scenario and transportation strategyand including an analysis of truck and rail service options and a revenue maximizinganalysis. The analysis also considered competitive responses in terms of lower ratesand/or improved facilities. The forecasts were subject to a robustness analysis thatchecked, by model structure, weights, coefficients, functions, etc., the sensitivity offorecasts, market segments, and origin-destination movements.• A set of model elasticities that show the likely variation of cargo, service levels,tariffs and other critical input variables was developed.TEMS, Inc. / RAND Corporation January 2007 26