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February - Feedlot Magazine

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February - Feedlot Magazine

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Treason, Heresy and Seditionby Ann BarnhardtWell, if that title doesn’t piqueyour interest, nothing will!Here goes:We are in the CATTLE business.We are NOT in the beefbusiness.Allow me to explain myself beforeyou gather the wood to burnme at the stake. The beef market isa totally separate market that haslittle-to-nothing to do with the profitabilityof cattle PRODUCERS. Iknow this is contrary to everythingyou are being told. I know this iscompletely counter-cultural. Staywith me. We sell CATTLE. We buyCATTLE. That is the market thatwe should be preoccupied with.We do not need to know what theSelect chuck market is doing. Wehave no need to research the 90-10ground beef market. What the hideand offal markets are doing haveno bearing on us or our ability tobe profitable.None. Let the packers and retailersworry about those things.Those are THEIR markets, notours. We are the lucky ones. We getto worry about the glorious, profit-ladenCATTLE markets. Do notrebuff this blessing!This concept meshes with theneed to carefully and objectivelysort our daily tasks into true, productiveWORK, and non-productivebusywork. Eliminate the latter.What good is it to sit in front of acomputer screen in the evenings,desperately engaged in the daily intrigueof the beef market . . . a marketin which we have essentially noparticipation? When was the lasttime you sold a brisket? When wasthe last time you sold a flank or sirloin?What purpose does it serve toruminate over the Choice rib market. . . and have no idea how to calculatethe return on the gain? Howcan it be “wise” to endlessly wringone’s hands over the cutout . . . andhave no clue what our cost of gainis? I see these conditions almostHOURLY. We are barking up thewrong tree.Aggregate demand for beef dictatesONLY how BIG the cattle industrycan be. As demandincreases, more cattle can exist,We sell CATTLE.We buy CATTLE.That is the marketthat we should bepreoccupied with.and therefore more cattle producerscan exist. As demand shrinks,marginal producers will find themselvesbeing squeezed out. The trulyskilled marketers already exist inthe upper-echelons of this industry(you may be surprised who I considerthe “upper-echelon” - it maybe your neighbor who hauls cattlearound in a bumper trailer!), andneed not be overly concerned withdemand contraction, and the resultingattrition. Marketing skillmakes your place in this industrysecure. Lack of marketing skillleaves you vulnerable, whether youare a 100,000 head feedlot or aweekend warrior with 20 head inthe back pasture.♦There are no guarantees. Nothing iscertain. You are solely responsible foryour decisions. Information containedherein is believed to be reliable, but noindependent verification has been madeand there are no guarantees as to its accuracyor completeness. The risk of lossin trading futures and options can besubstantial, and investors should verycarefully consider the inherent risks.Visit Ann at www.Barnhardt.biz.Circle No. 123 on ReplyFEED•LOT <strong>February</strong> 2007 21

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