trends, prospects and forecast of development of automotive market ...

AUTOMOTIVE MARKET OF RUSSIA - trends, prospects and forecast of development until 2012MARKETING REPORTFORECAST OF SALES OF PASSENGER CARSRussian market of passenger cars is onan all-time upraise: the demand is growing,the new players appear, a big amount ofcredit money is attracted; various marketinginstruments, previously unknown andunavailable, find their use. All this leads tothe growth of volumes of sales, which werenot predictable earlier. A whole range ofcar producers was not ready for it: thereare queues for their cars. All this is actualmainly for a cars of foreign producers. Thetraditional car industry does not have itsbest time now. The volumes of realizationare constantly reducing, even in spite ofappearing of several new novelties at once.So, this year the leader of domestic passengercar industry had already seriousproblems with sales of its production, inspite of appearing of novelty Lada Priorawhich was long-awaited.However, in spite of difficulties, thecar factory of Togliatty continues its work,providing a constant out-put of over 600000 cars a year. This situation will remainin the nearest several years. The closedownof production of cars is planned at the carfactory «Volga» in Nighniy Novgorod. Themodel Chrysler is going to substitute. Theproject «Oka» in Serpuchov continues closingas well.On the contrary, the sales of cars offoreign brands will grow every year. In thenearest future, the leaders will be the same:Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota, becauseof the launch of assembly production inRussia. These factories will make a modelsof the most popular price ranges now: full-sizedsedans Mondeo and Camry. Renault,Hyundai and Nissan will probably enterin the number of the best-selling carbrands. The largest European concern ofproduction of cars can not compete withmore accessible Asian makes because of itsprice politics. However this situation canchange fundamentally with the appearanceof a wide announced affordable model,developed with provision of preferences ofRussian customers. The expected Chineseexpansion did not take place: Russian customerscarefully regard the productionfrom China.Let us notice that the wide gamma ofmodels and the attractive prices will playtheir role anyway. However, the largegamma of models and attractive prices willplay their role: until 2012, the total numberof cars, sold on the territory of Russia, producedin China, could reach 300 000 cars.In general, the volumes of sales of newpassenger cars will constantly grow in RussianFederation and in the current year theywill exceed the mark of 2 mln. of realizedcars a year. Until 2012 it will be 4 mln. Theshare of domestic cars in the general volumeof cars realized on the territory of Russiawill reduce every year. The last factory,which will make the originally Russian cars,will probably remain the factory «AUTO-VAZ» in Togliatty.Forecast of passenger car sales in Russia in 2005 - 2012(by makes)Маke 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012LADAGAZUAZOkaIZH (commercial)Total russian modelsFord*Chevrolet (incl. Niva)HyundaiToyota*NissanRenault*Mitsubishi*DaewooKIA*Mazda*VW*OpelSuzukiHondaPeugeot*SkodaCitroen*Mercedes-Benz*VolvoLexusAudiBMWSubaruFiatChineese carsOther foreign carsTotal foreign carsTotal* Including commercial modelsForecast of passenger car sales in Russia in 2005 - 2012(by segments)Segment 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012LADAOther russian modelsNew foreign carsSecond-hand foreign carsTotal marketThe other marketing researches from series «Automotive market of Russia» can be ordered in the company «AUTOSTAT».Phone number: (8482) 20-55-53. E-mail: amr@autostat.ru, violetta@7verst.ru, sale@autostat.ru. Internet: www.autostat.ru.9