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AUTOMOTIVE MARKET OF RUSSIA - trends, prospects and forecast of development until 2012MARKETING REPORTTOTALS AND PROSPECTS OF ASSEMBLY OFFOREIGN CARS IN RUSSIAThe assembly productions first appearedin Russia in middle of 90`s. The company"Doninvest" was the first who began to assemblya foreign cars on the territory of RF.Using the capacities of joint-venture the factorymade a model "Doninvest Assol", this isthe analogue of French model Citroen Berlingo.The real growth of the amount of assemblyfactories began in 2002 after the acceptanceof "The conception of developmentof car industry in Russia", which was orientatedon the establishing of such kind of factoriesof the world leading companies. Then severalnew joint-ventures began to functionon the territory of RF. Today they still staythe leaders in the number of made foreigncars in Russia. So, for example, the capacityof the factory located in Vsevolghsk, is usedto make a Ford cars. In 2006, this factory made62 409 cars of the second generation ofFocus. More than 140 000 cars were producedduring all years of the factory's work. Thedemand on foreign cars of Russian assemblywas high, what made possible to increase thevolumes of production during all years.So, since 2004 the joint-venture GeneralMotors and OAO "AUTOVAZ" has been makingfrom 40 000 to 50 000 cars a year,which are quickly bought. The joint project ofFrench company Renault and the governmentof Moscow first time made a Clio Symbol.The volumes of production were rather low(until 100 cars a month) and were specifiedby the possibilities of the supply of car componentsfor Turkish partner of the factory. In2005, the factory decided to move on theproduction of new model Logan, and the ratesof assembly were significantly raised (48545 cars in 2006). Apart from the namedabove factories, the factories in Ighevsk, Kaliningrad,Taganrog, Nabereghnye Chelny,Cherkessk and Novouralsk also do the assemblyof foreign cars. Therefore, nine jointventuresof different scale work on the territoryof Russian Federation on the middle of2007.The launching of the factory, which is theproperty of the largest car factory - Toyota,is planned on 2007. The production capacityof the factory will be 50 000 cars, andthe first test party of cars is planned to bemade until the end of the current year. AfterJapanese company, the whole range ofcar factories will work on the territory ofRF in the nearest future. They will make acars of the famous European and Asianbrands: Volkswagen, Nissan, General Motors,Suzuki and PSA. These companies havealready started their construction or atleast have signed an agreements with theMinistry of Economics of Development. Itis expected that Korean company Hyundaiand Japanese company Mitsubishi woulddefine the places for factories and workon the documents. This speedup of theprocess is connected to the forthcomingend of possibility of concluding an agreementwith the Ministry of Economics ofDevelopment about the organization ofindustry assembly.The last period for the signing of asuch package of documents is fixed on 15September. We remind that the obligatoryunits160 000140 000120 000100 00080 00060 00040 00020 00001115457250127948157201276890requirement for the companies planningto organize a such factory on the territoryof RF is the annual plan of output of over25 000 cars and a high degree of localizationof made cars.According to our forecast, in 2007 theassembly factories will produce over 400000 cars on the territory of Russia, unlike280 000 of produced cars in the last year.For 2008 - 2009, it is planned to launchsome other factories. Until this time thefactories working on the territory of Russia,will make over 500 000 of foreign carsa year, and the launching of new jointventureswill allow to increase the level ofassembly in 1 mln. units. So, the share offoreign cars in Russian car industry will exceedthe share of the traditional Russianmarks.For full picture we offer you all information,that we have on the moment ofpreparing of the report, about the officiallytaken decisions and plans, as well asabout the decisions that are being workedout.Dynamics of production of иностранных марок в 2002 - 2012 гг.4303002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012572000760000990000112050001435000Manufacture of passenger cars of foreign makes in Russia in 2002 - 2012(by factories)Factory2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Autotor, KaliningradAutoframos, MoscowFord, VsevolozhskGM-AUTOVAZ, TogliattiTAGAZ, Taganrog*IZHAUTO, IzhevskZMA, Naberezhnye ChelnyToyota, St. PetersburgGM, St. PetersburgVolkswagen, Kaluzhskiy reg.Nissan, St. PetersburgOthers**Total* Including light commercial cars** Including small working enterprises and projects, witch are at the stage of agreement(Derways, АМУР, ГАЗ-DaimlerChrysler, ЗАЗ-УкрАвто, PSA, Hyundai, Suzuki, Mitsubishi)The other marketing researches from series «Automotive market of Russia» can be ordered in the company «AUTOSTAT».Phone number: (8482) 20-55-53. E-mail: amr@autostat.ru, violetta@7verst.ru, sale@autostat.ru. Internet: www.autostat.ru.7
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET OF RUSSIA - trends, prospects and forecast of development until 2012MARKETING REPORTTRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF AUTOCOMPONENTSMARKET IN RUSSIAThe general characteristics of marketMarket structure of auto componentsThe market of auto components is divided in a primary one (componentsused for the production of cars on the conveyer) and a secondaryone (spare parts for sale from the service and stores). In the world experiencethe relation between them is approximately 30\70. The Russianstructure of market of auto components unlike the global one is displacedto the side of the secondary market and we evaluate its relation as 40\60.Among the reasons of this situation we highlight the next ones.Inthe World70% Primary 40%In RussiaOld autoparkThe autopark of the country is growing old, so it requires a constantmaintenance and repair. The share of passenger cars that olderthan 10 years is more than 50 %, a little bit more than 20 % of park ofthe country fall on the share of "no problem" cars till 5 years old.Outdated model rangeThere are rather a lot of old Russian exploitive models. For example,the share of VAZ classic cars in Russian park of passenger cars is28,4%, the share of "Moskvich" is 6,6%, "Volga" - 6%, "ZAZ" - 3,3%,"UAZ" - 2,5 % etc.Bad roadsA low quality of car roads is practically ubiquitous. Perhaps onlythe road cover in Moscow and in number of largest cities of RF couldbe considered as acceptable. However, here they are worse than inmany European countries.High level of road accidentsThe number of accidents on one unit of transport in Russia is oneof the highest in the world. Nearly 300 000 of road accidents of differentdegree of heaviness are registered every year. If we supposethat in average two cars take part in accident, so every fiftieth cartakes part in accident every year.Market capacity of auto componentsbln. rub. Primary Secondary16141215 bln.10811 bln.645 bln.23,5 bln.02007 2010MARKET OF TIRES30% Secondary 60%The evaluation of marketThe evaluation of market of components for passenger cars,made by the analytic agency "AUTOSTAT", reports the next figures.In 2007 the volume of primary market will be $7-8 billion, a half ofthem falls on the share of auto makers. The volume of external productionof auto components for the primary market will form nearly$3,5 - 4,0 billion.Herewith the share of auto components produced for assemblyenterprises is within 10% of this sum. The rest 90 % of componentsare intended for traditional Russian car enterprises. However the localizationof assembly of foreign cars slowly takes place. We estimatethat until 2010 the share of components, intended for jointventures,will grow till 30-35%, and the volume of outside suppliesfor primary market will grow till 5 - 6 billion.On totals of the current year the volume of secondary market ofauto components and spare parts will form nearly $10-12 billion.Evaluating the increase of the park and the change of its structure,we can suppose that it will grow up to $113-115 billion until 2010.To the largest and best structured segments of market of componentswe could refer to the market of tyres ($2,2 - 2,4 billion),the market of oil ($1,1 - 1,2 billion), the market of batteries ($500 -600 mln.), the market of filters ($25 - 300 mln.).There are approximately 2 000 participants of different measureson the market of auto components. Domestic producers havethe leading positions now. However the process of displacement ofRussian brands with more qualitative production from Europe, withcheaper spare parts from China, Turkey and India is taking place.MARKET OF OILMARKET OF BATTERIESMARKET OF FILTERSThe other marketing researches from series «Automotive market of Russia» can be ordered in the company «AUTOSTAT».Phone number: (8482) 20-55-53. E-mail: amr@autostat.ru, violetta@7verst.ru, sale@autostat.ru. Internet: www.autostat.ru.8
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