Bringing forest carbon projects to the market
Bringing forest carbon projects to the market
Bringing forest carbon projects to the market
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Rest of <strong>the</strong> worldEuropeNorth AmericaTotal0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%0,5 - 2,5€ 2,5 - 6,5€ > 6,6 €Figure 34: Acceptable sale prices for buyers of <strong>forest</strong> <strong>carbon</strong> credits (Source: Ecosecurities)The first two points provide a basis for calculating <strong>the</strong> sale price of credits alreadygenerated (secondary credits). However, a great many transactions occur well aheadof <strong>the</strong>ir actual generation (primary credits). A discount is <strong>the</strong>n applied according <strong>to</strong><strong>the</strong> risks involved in <strong>the</strong> transaction for <strong>the</strong> inves<strong>to</strong>r (financing of some of <strong>the</strong> costs,permanence risk, etc.). As shown in figure 35, <strong>the</strong> risks decline as <strong>the</strong> project advances,until <strong>the</strong> price of <strong>the</strong> credits reaches <strong>the</strong> <strong>market</strong> value initially set.How risks (red line) evolve with <strong>the</strong> progress of a CDM or JI projectPhase Feasibility Construction OperationClassicproject risksFeasibilityFellinglicenseDelaysCost of debtAggregation(CO2 fund)Technology implementationMarket pricesSuppliers/Implementationraw materialsFinancial andlegal risksQuid pro quoTradeSpecificCDM/JI risksValidation of Approval from<strong>the</strong> methodology investingApproval from host countrycountry DNA/DFP DNA/DFPValidation/determinationVerification,ETS fungibilityITL operationOperationMarketvolatilityTimeCER/ERUpricesSources: UNEP, Eurosecurities, World Bank, E&YFigure 35: Credit prices depend on <strong>the</strong> stage reached in <strong>the</strong> project cycle (Sources: UNEP,Ecosecurities, World Bank, E&Y)<strong>Bringing</strong> Forest Carbon Projects <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> Market127