EPITAN - Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals

Melanotan NPVYear 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Total revenues US ($m) 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2 101.5 203.0 304.5 406.0 507.5 507.5 507.5 507.5 507.5 507.5 507.5 456.8 355.3 152.3 50.8Total revenues EU ($m) 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 105.0 210.0 315.0 420.0 525.0 525.0 525.0 525.0 525.0 525.0 525.0 472.5 367.5 157.5 52.5Total revenues Australia/New Zealand ($m) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 8.4 16.8 25.2 33.6 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 37.8 29.4 12.6 4.2EPITAN% royalty to Epitan on US/EU revenues 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0Royalty to Epitan on US/EU revenues ($m) 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 41.3 82.6 123.9 165.2 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 185.9 144.6 62.0 20.7Upfront payment to Epitan ($m) 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Milestone on filing with regulators ($m) 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Milestone on product launch/approval ($m) 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total payments to Epitan from US/EUpartnering ($m) 0.0 0.0 19.0 13.6 41.3 82.6 123.9 165.2 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 185.9 144.6 62.0 20.7Total revenues Australia/New Zealand ($m) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 8.4 16.8 25.2 33.6 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 37.8 29.4 12.6 4.2Cost of goods sold ($20 per patient per year)($m) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.8 -1.5 -2.3 -3.1 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.5 -2.7 -1.2 -0.4Sales and marketing costs (20% of sales)($m) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.7 -3.4 -5.0 -6.7 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -7.6 -5.9 -2.5 -0.8Pre-launch/launch marketing costs ($m) 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0R&D spend on Melanotan ($m) -7.9 -13.3 -12.1 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Pre-tax earnings from Australia/New Zealand($m) -7.9 -13.3 -13.1 -4.9 2.5 9.9 17.9 23.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 26.8 20.8 8.9 3.0Pre-tax earnings from US/EU partnering ($m) 0.0 0.0 19.0 13.6 41.3 82.6 123.9 165.2 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 206.5 185.9 144.6 62.0 20.7Total pre-tax earnings for Epitan ($m) -7.9 -13.3 5.9 8.7 43.8 92.5 141.8 189.0 236.3 236.3 236.3 236.3 236.3 236.3 236.3 212.6 165.4 70.9 23.6Tax payable ($m) 0.0 0.0 -2.1 -3.1 -15.3 -32.4 -49.6 -66.2 -82.7 -82.7 -82.7 -82.7 -82.7 -82.7 -82.7 -74.4 -57.9 -24.8 -8.3Epitan earnings from Melanotan ($m) -7.9 -13.3 3.9 5.7 28.4 60.1 92.1 122.9 153.6 153.6 153.6 153.6 153.6 153.6 153.6 138.2 107.5 46.1 15.4Probability of successful progression (%) 100.0 70.0 70.0 50.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0Risk adjusted earnings ($m) -7.9 -9.3 2.7 2.8 11.4 24.1 36.9 49.1 61.4 61.4 61.4 61.4 61.4 61.4 61.4 55.3 43.0 18.4 6.1Discount factor (10%) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Discounted cash flow ($m) -7.9 -8.4 2.2 2.1 7.5 14.2 19.6 23.5 26.4 23.8 21.4 19.3 17.3 15.6 14.1 11.4 8.0 3.1 0.9NPV ($m) 214.0NPV (£m) 112.6NPV ($Am) 270.3Exchange rates used £1=$A2.4-$1.9Source: T&G research21