MBIPV Project Brief

49. Figure 3 shows the forecast cumulative BIPV installed capacity between the year 2004 to2010 under two scenarios, i.e. business-as-usual and alternative. The alternative scenario,which the MBIPV project intends to facilitate is characterized by an increase of about 330%of BIPV installed capacity (1.5 MWp) within the forecast period.3,000CO2 emission avoided (tons)2,5002,0001,5001,00050002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Fig. 3-1: Forecast Cumulative CO 2 Emission Avoidance50. Directly, the project is expected to induce a cost reduction of minimum 20% (Fig. 4) by the year2010, relative to the baseline in year 2004 (at a turn-key system price of 7 US$/Wp). Incomparison, the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario forecasts a cost reduction of only about 10%. Thehigher cost reduction will be realized from improved product procurement processes due tomarket competition, increased level of competency of PV installers, and availability locallymanufactured BIPV system components (e.g., mounting structure). In addition, the continuousprice reduction will happen due to international market pressure (mainly in Japan and Europe) tofurther reduce the technology cost. Hence, this MBIPV project is also contributing to the globalefforts to reduce the BIPV technology cost via the sustainable market development.51. Figure 4 shows the projected BIPV system cost reduction under two scenarios, i.e. business-asusualand alternative. The cost reduction of about 10% under the business-as-usual scenario isattributed to anticipated international cost reduction of the PV technology. The cost reduction of20% under the alternative scenario is based on the development of a new BIPV market inMalaysia at a 300% growth rate within the forecast period. The cost reduction projection is alsobased on IEA-PVPS findings where PV system cost reduction range is 15% to 20% for a new PVmarket, or 10% to 17% for an established PV market.16