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PDF: 1050 KB - Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional ...

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Cost <strong>of</strong> Aviation Accidents <strong>and</strong> Incidents | btre report 113who will be affected by certain proposals to express their own view onhow much safety they wish to buy 32 .In practice, a human capital approach may still be more appropriate insome cases, particularly if doubts about the reliability <strong>of</strong> valuationsthat individuals nominate or reveal in willingness to pay studies cannotbe overcome, or if carrying out willingness to pay studies is constrainedby cost <strong>and</strong> time considerations.Summary• The estimated total cost <strong>of</strong> aviation accidents <strong>and</strong> incidents was $114 millionin 2003/04.• Sensitivity testing revealed that two changes in methodology cancelled eachother out. These involved changing the discount rate from 4 per cent to 3per cent <strong>and</strong> changing future wages growth from 2 per cent to 1 per cent.• Tests also showed that the methodology is particularly sensitive to theestimates <strong>of</strong> income <strong>and</strong> age <strong>of</strong> those involved.28• In principle, willingness to pay studies <strong>of</strong> Australians should be used todetermine the value <strong>of</strong> specific safety improvements in Australia. However,for a range <strong>of</strong> reasons, this may <strong>of</strong>ten not be practical.32 For the importance <strong>of</strong> context in valuing safety improvements, see Loomes <strong>and</strong> Jones-Lee(1995).

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