C. Cramez, Switzerland

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HC Problems1) At the end 2005, the amount of liquid hydrocarbonsproduced since 1859 is (±1-2%)1 000 Gb (1 000 billion barrels).2) Likely, the remaining reserves are:- 1 000 Gb of oil,- 500 Gb of extra-heavy,- 250 Gb of natural gas liquids,- 250 Gb of refining technology+synthetic oils from coal & biomass.Évora, 8-9th May, 20064C. Cramez, Switzerlandccramez@compuserve.com
Peak Oil DepletionTrend lines, scenarios 2005Our prediction (in purple) is slightly optimistic than ASPO 2005 (in yellow), but largely pessimistic whencompared with the predictions of conventional petroleum-related organisations, such as IHS, EIA, PB,Total, OPEC, etc.5C. Cramez, Switzerlandccramez@compuserve.comÉvora, 8-9th May, 2006
Page 1 and 2: 1HC Problems&Nature PrinciplesCarlo
Page 3: Part IHC ProblemsReviewÉvora, 8-9t
Page 7 and 8: Oil Production Forecast(Salvador, A
Page 9 and 10: HC Problems7) The volume of water p
Page 12 and 13: HC ProblemsThis plot indicates the
Page 14 and 15: Middle East Oil FieldsAccording to
Page 16 and 17: Ignoring the risks posedby the oil
Page 18 and 19: Conjectures.Évora, 8-9th May, 2006
Page 20 and 21: HC ProblemsThe oil production in th
Page 23 and 24: Part IINature PrinciplesReviewÉvor
Page 25 and 26: InequalityEquality may exist atthe
Page 27 and 28: Inequality27On this subject, it is
Page 29 and 30: Self-similarityNature is characteri
Page 31 and 32: A natural object, or geometric figu
Page 33 and 34: Geoscientists know a scale is neces
Page 35 and 36: Geology is Scale Dependent.Interpre
Page 37 and 38: Fractal Distribution- Galactic inte
Page 39 and 40: 39Fractal DistributionIndeed, as il
Page 41 and 42: Fractal ParabolicIt is evident that
Page 43 and 44: Fractal Parabolic43The size plotted
Page 45 and 46: CyclicityLive births, deaths, natur
Page 47 and 48: CyclicityDepositional Systems are C
Page 49 and 50: CyclicityMajor Geologic Events are
Page 51 and 52: Cyclicity51The stratigraphic distri
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FinitenessThe rate of decline varie
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56What means finitenessin mathemati
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58In Nature, too simple is often fa
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The simplest natural answer is2, 4,
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Finiteness62Proven + ProbableProven
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Gravitation64Gravity AnomaliesThe g
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Marine Clastic Deposition(after P.
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LifeLake MichiganThe bright color t
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70Carbonate BuildupsCarbonate build
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LifeLife is controlled by three maj
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Fibonacci’s law(Principle of Maxi
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Determinism & ProbabilismNatural ev
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Nature is not linearProblems need m
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Symmetry(Central Limit Theorem)Symm
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Symmetry83Symmetry exists also in m
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Central Limit Theorem(Large numbers
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C. Cramez, Switzerland

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