Kuwait Economic Brief - National Bank of Kuwait

ack towards last year’s elevated levels. Only two OPECmember countries, Venezuela and Nigeria, registereddeclines in April. Output there fell by 18,000 bpd and9,000 bpd respectively – the latter as a result of continuedsecurity issues.Total OPEC production (including Iraq) jumped to a5-month high of 30.5 mbpd – around 500,000 bpd higherthan OPEC’s output ceiling. This came on the back of alarge output increase of more than 100,000 bpd in Iraq.In principle, the absence of specific country output quotalevels means that there are few official restrictions onfurther increases in Iraqi crude output this year. This couldleave it competing with other OPEC members for buyers,or force other members to cut their own output to ensurethat the organization meets its aggregate productiontargets.Non-OPEC supplies are projected to increase by around1.2 - 1.6 mbpd in 2013, of which up to one-quarter willcome from OPEC NGLs. This is likely to be driven bystrong North American production, supplemented by therestoration of oil production elsewhere - most notablySouth Sudan. In total, global oil supplies are expected toincrease by less than 1 mbpd in 2013, as cuts in OPECoutput partially offset stronger non-OPEC supplies.Price projectionsOil prices in the various scenarios below are expected toremain relatively stable in 2H13 at around $100 pb. Thisis because OPEC is projected to adjust production asnecessary in order to balance the market. Based on aconsensus view of a 0.8 mbpd (0.9%) increase in globaloil demand, and an aggressive 1.5 mbpd increase in non-OPEC supplies partially offset by OPEC production cuts,global oil inventories could rise by a modest 0.5 mbpd in2013. In this case, the price of KEC remains at $ 100 pbin the second half of the year – unchanged from its 2Q13average.If, on the other hand, non-OPEC supplies turn out 0.3mbpd stronger than expected in 2H 13, then OPEC willneed to make larger and faster output cuts to keep pricesclose to $100 pb. In this scenario, the price of KEC falls tojust below $100 pb in 2Q13, but remains at that level forthe remainder of the year.Alternatively, non-OPEC supplies could come in 0.3 mbpdlower than expected in 2H 13, allowing OPEC to maintaincurrent production levels throughout 2013. In this case,the price of KEC is supported at above $100 pb forthe entire year. However, given rising production in Iraq,other OPEC members – namely Saudi Arabia – will needto reduce output in order to maintain the organization’saggregate production at current levels.Budget projectionsThe closing accounts for FY 2012/13 have yet to bereleased, but with KEC prices having averaged $107 pbfor the fiscal year, the budget is likely to have recordedanother massive surplus. If, as we expect, spendingcomes in at 10-20% below the government’s forecast,then last year’s budget surplus could end up between KD12.8 billion and KD 15.0 billion before allocations to theReserve Fund for Future Generations (RFFG).The projections for the current fiscal year 2013/14 arelinked to our three scenarios, which yield oil prices withinthe narrow range of $98 to $100 pb in FY 2013/14. Thelack of variation in the price scenarios is based uponthe assumption that OPEC modifies output accordinglyto secure oil prices near the $100 mark: the scenariovariation comes from production levels rather than prices.Assuming that spending comes in at an improved 5-10%below budgeted expenditures, we project a surplusof between KD 7.8 billion and KD 9.9 billion beforeallocations to the RFFG. This would equate to 16%-20%of forecast 2013 GDP, and would represent Kuwait’s 15thsuccessive budget surplus.BUDGET FORECAST(million KD, unless otherwise noted)Under Alternative Oil Price ScenariosFY 2012/13 FY 2013/14Official Low Base High Prelim. Low Base HighBudget Case Case Case Budget Case Case CaseOil Price ($/barrel) 65.0 106.6 106.6 106.6 70.0 98.3 99.2 100.2Total Revenues 13,932 31,952 31,996 32,039 18,096 27,851 28,340 28,901Oil Revenues 12,768 30,119 30,163 30,206 16,883 25,951 26,440 27,001Non-Oil Revenues 1,164 1,833 1,833 1,833 1,213 1,900 1,900 1,900Expenditures (official) 21,240 21,240 21,240 21,240 21,149 21,149 21,149 21,149Surplus (deficit) -7,308 10,712 10,756 10,799 -3,053 6,703 7,191 7,752After RFFG -10,791 2,724 2,757 2,790 -7,577 -260 106 527Expenditures (NBK estimate) - 19,116 17,523 16,992 - 20,091 19,562 19,034Surplus (deficit), NBK estimate - 12,836 14,473 15,047 - 7,760 8,777 9,867After RFFG - 4,848 6,474 7,038 - 797 1,692 2,642Source: Ministry of Finance and NBK projections.3

expatriates in the workforce during the year. The reasonsfor this are not clear, but it is possible that it reflectsincreased remittances from Kuwait’s large Egyptiandiaspora in light of the weak Egyptian economy, andlarger transfers by Indian expatriates taking advantage ofthe weak Rupee.Looking forward, this year we expect the surplus in thecurrent account to be trimmed to around 35 - 40% ofGDP as a result of softer exports and stronger imports.Lower oil prices and cutbacks in production levels arelikely to limit oil exports. Meanwhile, an improvement innon-oil sector growth is likely to help imports pick-up in2013.Capital and financial accountThe combined capital and financial accounts record thenet change in ownership of foreign assets – be they debtor equity, currencies and deposits, or other items. Forthe most part, these changes broadly mirror changesin the current account – but in the opposite direction: arise in the current account surplus generates a rise in thedeficit on the capital and financial account. Since Kuwaittraditionally runs a current account surplus, it has tendedto see large outflows of capital, representing an increase inthe country’s investments abroad. 2012 was no exception.The combined capital and financial accounts saw a deficitof a record KD 22.9 billion in 2012 – a whopping KD 6.1billion higher than the previous year.The widening deficit was mainly attributed to the ‘portfolioinvestments’ component of the financial account, whichsaw outflows rise by KD 5.1 billion in 2012. Net investmentsin foreign securities reached KD 7.2 billion – their highestpost-financial crisis level. Most of this increase came fromincreased Kuwaiti investments in foreign debt securities,which saw the reversal of a KD 0.4 billion repatriation ofinvestments in the previous year.The ‘other investments’ account – which has constitutedthe single largest source of outflows since 2009 – saw itsdeficit widen further to a record KD 15.4 billion in 2012.This volatile account is mostly made up of investments inshorter-term deposit accounts and net overseas loans.The majority of the increase in outflows came via a KD2.0 billion increase in government investments in foreigncurrencies and deposits – a trend that has persisted overthe past three years. This could reflect a switch in theSUMMARY OF KUWAIT’S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (KD MILLION)Level Change2009 2010 2011 2012 KD mn % y/yCurrent Account 8,138 10,592 18,534 22,174 3,640 20Goods (net) 10,330 13,691 22,317 27,101 4,784 21Goods Exports (f.o.b) 15,662 19,240 28,411 33,389 4,978 18Oil Exports 14,073 17,711 26,689 31,608 4,919 18Non-oil Exports 1,589 1,529 1,722 1,781 59 3Goods Imports (f.o.b) -5,332 -5,549 -6,094 -6,289 -195 3Services (net) -655 -1,932 -2,201 -2,680 -479 22Primary Income (net)¹ 2,211 2,425 2,481 2,573 92 4Direct Investment 279 316 440 423 -17 -4Portfolio Investment 1,541 1,759 1,693 1,670 -23 -1Other Investment 374 332 295 441 146 49Reserve Assets 47 58 95 86 -9 -9Secondary Income (net)² -3,747 -3,592 -4,064 -4,820 -756 19Workers' remittances -3,352 -3,435 -3,660 -4,412 -752 21Capital and Financial Accounts -7,377 -12,550 -16,834 -22,932 -6,098 36Direct Investment (net) -2,149 -308 -2,219 -1,598 621 -28Investment abroad -2,470 -439 -2,455 -2,117 338 -14Foreign Direct Investment 320 131 236 518 282 119Portfolio Investment (net) -2,358 -6,185 -2,064 -7,157 -5,093 247Financial Derivatives (net) -14 8 21 -17 -38 -181Other Investment (net) -3,146 -6,667 -13,527 -15,336 -1,809 13Net errors & omissions 327 2,118 -469 1,676 - -Overall Balance 1,088 159 1,231 918 -313 -25Reserve Assets (CBK) -1,088 -159 -1,231 -918 313 -25Broad BOP balance³ 7,550 10,480 13,458 20,683 7,225 54Net Gov. Inv. A/C excl. CBK -6,462 -10,321 -12,227 -19,765 -7,538 62Source: Central Bank of Kuwait / NBK¹ Consists mainly of investment income. Also includes compensation of employees.² Previously referred to as current transfers.³ Includes net investment accounts of KIA, KPC, KAC and CBK.5

Economic Brief - June 2013government’s accumulation of foreign assets towardssafer and more liquid investments after the financial crisis.Only the ‘direct investments’ component – or longtermequity stakes – saw reduced outflows, wherebynet investments abroad fell back by some KD 0.6billion to KD1.6 billion. Lower net outflows were dueto the combined effect of a KD 0.3 billion reduction ininvestments by Kuwaitis abroad, alongside a KD 0.3billion increase in foreign direct investments (FDI) inKuwait. The latter reached their highest ever level at KD0.5 billion, likely driven by Qtel’s purchase of shares inlocal telecom company Wataniya.Meanwhile, the smaller capital account saw inflows edgeup to KD 1.2 billion in 2012 – an all-time high. This accountis largely driven by UN compensation payments to Kuwait.Balance of payments surplus and foreign reservesCombining all of the above, the surplus in the balance ofpayments reached KD 0.9 billion in 2012, compared to KD1.2 billion in the previous year. This is also equivalent tothe change in reserve assets held by the CBK. Reservesaccumulated for the ninth consecutive year.The overall position of the balance of payments rose toan all-time high of KD 20.7 billion in 2012. This broaderbalance takes into account not only changes in reserveassets held by the CBK, but also changes in the valueof external assets of key government bodies – notablythe Kuwait Investment Authority, Kuwait PetroleumCorporation, and Kuwait Airways Corporation.6

Real EstateSales slower in April, but activity levels still solidData for April show real estate sales declining by 32%year-on-year (y/y), to reach KD 279 million. The dropfollowed a recovery in March after the year had startedwith some y/y softness. But we suspect that weaknessin April’s numbers is exaggerated by the unexplainedomission of one week’s worth of data; including this,the fall would have been smaller at -7% y/y. Overall, theoutlook for the real estate market remains positive for2013, despite some expected summer slowdown.Sales in the residential sector reached KD 152 million inApril, a drop of 26% y/y. Although the average transactionsize increased y/y, the drop was caused by a considerablefall in the number of transactions, from 1086 to 592. Thepicture would be slightly different if we were to add the136 residential transactions from the omitted week; thesegment would then be down 8% y/y.Additionally, the residential sector and household financescould see some boost later in the year, as recentlegislation goes into effect. The ‘family fund’ intended tohelp struggling pre-2008 debtors should start acceptingapplicants within a month’s time. This could free someadditional household income. Meanwhile, the recentceiling increase for Savings and Credit Bank housing loansshould pass its last bureaucratic step soon.The investment sector saw KD 117 million in sales in April,a 35% y/y decrease. The drop – which would have been24% with the inclusion of the omitted data describedabove – was partially anticipated: sales in April 2012 wereexceptionally strong, making this April’s sales look weakerin comparison. Although the investment sector has seeny/y drops in 3 out of the 4 months of data so far in theyear, activity levels remain reasonably solid on a historicalbasis.The commercial sector saw KD 11 million in sales,according to the raw official data. This represents a 58%y/y drop, which is not unusual for this often volatile marketsegment.But if we were to take into account the week of omitteddata, then activity levels look healthier. The omitted weekalone saw KD 44 million in commercial property sales.This came from the sale of a KD 13 million complex inAhmadi governorate, as well as 2 major ‘blocs’ of sales:47 plots of land in Ahmadi governorate for a total of aboutKD 15 million, and 26 commercial apartments (theseare residence apartments that are part of a commercialproperty, such as a commercial tower) in Kuwait City, for asum of little over KD 9 million.More generally, commercial segment activity has seensome signs of recovery early in the year, with news ofRESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATEINVESTMENT REAL ESTATE (APT & BLDG)3001,2002002502501,0001602002008001201501506001004008010050200405000Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13Sales (KD mn, LHS) Number of transactions (RHS)00Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13Sales (KD mn, LHS) Number of transactions (RHS)RESIDENTIAL PRICES - 3-MONTH MOVING AVG. KD/M 2INVESTMENT PRICES - 3-MONTH MOVING AVG. KD/M 28008001600160070070014001400600600120012005005001000100040040080080030030020020010010000Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13HomesPlots60060040040020020000Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13Buildings Apartments7

Economic Brief - June 2013a major purchase by the Kuwait Investment Authority inMay. The KIA currently has 2 real estate funds managedby local financial institutions in an effort to inject someliquidity into the market, and support confidence.go up with the upcoming ceiling increase, as the currentaverage sits very close to its ceiling limit.Elsewhere, the Savings and Credit Bank approved561 loans applications – most of which were for newconstructions – amounting to about KD 36 million. Thoughthe average number of applications might not change, butwe expect to see the average loan size for new housingCOMMERCIAL REAL ESTATESCB LOAN APPROVALS801660020070146012500150501040010040830630050201042200000Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13Sales (KDmn, LHS) Number of transactions (RHS)1002011 2012 2013Number of loans (LHS) KD value of loans (% y/y, RHS)-50REAL ESTATE SALES & SCB HOUSING LOANSMonthly Avg. Feb Mar Apr % %Real estate sales 2011 2012 2013 2013 2013 M/M Y/YSales values (KD mn) 224.6 261.6 218.1 292.8 279.4 -4.6 -32.2Residential property 121.1 144.8 104.1 149.0 152.1 2.0 -26.3Investment 82.9 95.8 93.0 122.0 116.8 -4.3 -35.2Commercial 20.5 21.0 21.0 21.7 10.6 -51.4 -58.3Number of transactions 625 796 508 629 779 23.8 -41.6Residential property 494 657 365 490 592 20.8 -45.5Investment 124 133 138 127 182 43 -24Commercial 7 6 5 12 5 -58.3 -26.6Average transaction size (000 KD) 369.7 329.0 429.3 465.5 358.7 -22.9 16.0Residential property 250.8 223.6 285.1 304.1 256.9 -15.5 35.2Investment 685.6 718.5 673.9 960.9 641.7 -33.2 -14.6Commercial 2809.2 3110.0 4203.8 1812.0 2115.2 16.7 -41.6Monthly Avg. Feb Mar Apr % %SCB housing loans 2011 2012 2013 2013 2013 M/M Y/YValue of approved Loans (KD mn) 9.8 15.5 24.2 34.3 35.9 4.6 103.4New construction 4.9 9.9 19.8 30.9 31.6 2.0 220.4Purchase of existing homes 3.1 4.0 3.4 2.4 3.7 55.0 -24.5Additions & renovations 1.8 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 -37.3 -78.6Number of approved loans 220 297.8 393 545 561 2.9 46.9New construction 75 146.8 287 449 458 2.0 209.5Purchase of existing homes 61 76.8 54 53 67 26 -32Additions & renovations 85 74.2 52 43 36 -16.3 -73.3Value of disbursed loans (KD mn) 8.3 10.2 7.3 12.6 11.0 -12.2 -18.6New construction 4.3 5.3 4.1 7.8 7.2 -7.2 6.1Purchase of existing eomes 2.5 3.2 2.2 3.3 2.7 -17.1 -41.1Additions & renovations 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.5 1.1 -27.1 -48.2Source: Ministry of Justice and the Savings and Credit Bank8

Kuwait Stock ExchangeSignificant gains recorded in May, on higher volumes2013 is turning out to be a very good year for the localmarket. After having registered some noticeable gains inthe first 4 months of the year, May was an exceptionallygood month for the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE). Theprice index closed at 8301, registering a monthly gain of11.7% despite the correction in the last two trading daysof the month. Small cap stocks continue to be the maindriver behind the rally. However, the value-weighted index,a better representative of the performance of large caps,rose a smaller but still good 4.5%. The month of May alsosaw a significant boost in market liquidity and daily tradedvalue averaged KD 107 million, its highest level in 4 years.the best performer in May. Telecommunication was theonly sector noticeably off on the month (-3.1%).Market capitalization stood at KD 30.7 billion at the closeof the month, up around KD 1 billion since the end of Apriland KD 1.5 billion so far this year. However; market activitymight lose some steam as we near the summer/Ramadanslow season.REGIONAL MARKETS REBASED PERFORMANCE120110120110The relative calm between the National Assembly and thegovernment continues to fuel optimism regarding largeprojects in the development plan. That, coupled with agenerally good year so far for international markets, hasbeen the main catalyst for the now months-long rally.10090801009080On a sector level, while financial services and real estatecontinue to outperform, the consumer goods sector was70May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13S&P Kuwait S&P GCC S&P Pan Arab70KSE DAILY PERFORMANCEKSE REBASED PERFORMANCE180860014014016014084001301301208200120120million KD100806080007800index110100110100402076009090026 8 12 14 16 20May 2013Value of Traded Shares (left)22 26 28 30KSE Index (right)74008080May.12 Jul.12 Sep.12 Nov.12 Jan.13 Mar.13 May.13Value Weighted (LHS) Price Index (RHS)KSE PERFORMANCE BY SECTOR, MAY 2013Price- Market % Change Market Cap. % of Trading Activity Price toWeighted (IXP) Weighted (IXW) IXP IXW (million KD) Market (daily average) Earnings +31-May-13 31-May-13 m/m YTD m/m YTD 31-May-13 m/m mn shares mn KD 31-May-13KSE 8,301 476 11.7 39.9 4.5 14.0 30,720 100.0% 1,152.3 107.2 14Oil & Gas 1,234 513 -0.2 21.7 -0.4 21.7 297 1.0% 44.7 3.4 13Basic Materials 1,240 595 11.4 27.1 7.9 23.3 722 2.4% 2.1 0.6 ...Industrials 1,254 620 15.3 34.2 10.0 18.9 3,145 10.2% 163.8 13.5 13Consumer Goods 1,220 824 15.9 32.6 20.6 37.8 1,025 3.3% 17.3 2.2 18Health Care 1,122 527 5.6 ... 6.3 ... 209 0.7% 0.1 0.1 12Consumer Services 1,082 566 4.0 15.1 2.7 13.4 930 3.0% 4.6 0.8 15Telecommunications 968 510 5.3 8.3 -3.1 -0.9 4,217 13.7% 26.8 3.4 9Utilities ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...Banks 1,147 535 4.4 14.2 2.4 9.6 13,770 44.8% 77.8 17.3 14Insurance 1,219 561 21.2 33.3 8.6 12.5 348 1.1% 4.3 0.4 8Real Estate 1,599 692 12.3 60.8 7.2 27.9 2,789 9.1% 395.0 33.3 17Financial Services 1,245 622 14.3 49.9 12.7 33.0 3,192 10.4% 410.5 31.6 ...Invt. Instruments ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .... ... ... ...Technology 1,152 565 -1.2 38.0 2.1 46.9 78 0.3% 5.4 0.7 10Parallel 1,482 521 12.4 28.9 1.9 4.5 ... ... 13.6 1.1 ...Source: Kuwait Stock Exchange and Zawya.* PE is calculated using market cap as of month close and 12 months trailing earnings.9

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