Housing Needs Assessment 2006 - Westminster City Council

CITY OF WESTMINSTER2006 HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENTJuly 2007Fordham Research Ltd, 57-59 Goldney Road, London, W9 2ART. 020 7289 3988 F. 020 7289 3309 E. info@fordhamresearch.comwww.fordhamresearch.com

Table of ContentsTABLE OF CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................1SECTION A: CONTEXT OF THE STUDY .................................................................................151. Introduction..................................................................................................................................171.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 171.2 City of Westminster............................................................................................................................................ 171.3 Population projections........................................................................................................................................ 181.4 Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix data ....................................................................................................... 201.5 Property prices and income levels...................................................................................................................... 211.6 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 212. Housing Needs Assessment - background..................................................................................232.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 232.2 Key points from the housing needs assessment guide........................................................................................ 232.3 Key points from Balancing Housing Markets .................................................................................................... 262.4 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 27SECTION B: SURVEY AND INITIAL DATA.............................................................................293. Data collection ..............................................................................................................................313.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 313.2 Base household figures and weighting procedures............................................................................................. 313.3 Base figures ........................................................................................................................................................ 323.4 Sub-areas ............................................................................................................................................................ 333.5 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 334. Current Housing in the City of Westminster ............................................................................354.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 354.2 Type of housing.................................................................................................................................................. 354.3 Household type................................................................................................................................................... 364.4 Car ownership..................................................................................................................................................... 374.5 Commuting patterns ........................................................................................................................................... 384.6 Transience of households in Westminster .......................................................................................................... 414.7 Past moves.......................................................................................................................................................... 424.8 Future moves – existing households................................................................................................................... 464.9 Future moves – potential households ................................................................................................................. 504.10 Summary .......................................................................................................................................................... 525. The local housing market ............................................................................................................535.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 535.2 National, regional and local picture.................................................................................................................... 535.3 Prices in adjoining areas..................................................................................................................................... 555.4 Estate Agents’ information................................................................................................................................. 555.5 Appropriate price level for the affordability test ................................................................................................ 57i

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 20065.6 Summary .............................................................................................................................................................586. Financial information and affordability.................................................................................... 596.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................596.2 Household income...............................................................................................................................................596.3 Household Savings and Equity ...........................................................................................................................606.4 Household characteristics and income ................................................................................................................616.5 Assessing affordability – existing households ....................................................................................................626.6 Assessing affordability – potential households ...................................................................................................656.7 Summary .............................................................................................................................................................66SECTION C: THE GUIDE MODEL............................................................................................. 677. Backlog of existing need .............................................................................................................. 697.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................697.2 Unsuitable housing..............................................................................................................................................697.3 Migration and ‘in-situ’ solutions.........................................................................................................................737.4 Affordability........................................................................................................................................................737.5 Housing need and the need for affordable housing.............................................................................................747.6 Homeless households (backlog households).......................................................................................................747.7 Total backlog need ..............................................................................................................................................767.8 Summary .............................................................................................................................................................778. Newly arising need....................................................................................................................... 798.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................798.2 New household formation ...................................................................................................................................798.3 Ex-institutional population moving into the community.....................................................................................808.4 Existing households falling into need .................................................................................................................818.5 In-migrant households unable to afford market housing.....................................................................................828.6 Summary .............................................................................................................................................................839. Supply of affordable housing...................................................................................................... 859.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................859.2 The Social Rented stock......................................................................................................................................859.3 The supply of affordable housing........................................................................................................................869.4 New dwellings.....................................................................................................................................................879.5 Shared ownership supply ....................................................................................................................................889.6 Vacant dwellings.................................................................................................................................................889.7 Changes in the supply of affordable housing ......................................................................................................889.8 Summary .............................................................................................................................................................8910. Basic needs assessment model................................................................................................... 9110.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................9110.2 Total housing need ............................................................................................................................................9110.3 The City of Westminster situation in context....................................................................................................9310.4 Size requirements and sub-areas .......................................................................................................................9310.5 Implications for affordable housing policy .......................................................................................................9510.6 Intermediate housing.........................................................................................................................................9610.7 A longer term view of the housing requirement..............................................................................................100ii

Table of Contents10.8 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ 101SECTION D: BROADER HOUSING MARKET & FUTURE CHANGES ............................10311. Market housing.........................................................................................................................10511.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 10511.2 Owner-occupied sector................................................................................................................................... 10511.3 The private rented sector ................................................................................................................................ 10611.4 The social rented sector.................................................................................................................................. 10811.5 Data comparisons ........................................................................................................................................... 10911.6 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ 11012. Balancing housing markets .....................................................................................................11112.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 11112.2 Procedure in outline........................................................................................................................................ 11212.3 Why gross flows cannot predict tenure .......................................................................................................... 11312.4 Adapted Gross Flows (AGF).......................................................................................................................... 11312.5 Summary of data ............................................................................................................................................ 11412.6 Implications of analysis.................................................................................................................................. 11512.7 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ 115SECTION E: THE NEEDS OF PARTICULAR GROUPS .......................................................11713. Households with support needs...............................................................................................11913.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 11913.2 Data coverage................................................................................................................................................. 11913.3 Households with support needs: overview ..................................................................................................... 11913.4 Characteristics of support needs households .................................................................................................. 12113.5 Requirements of support needs households.................................................................................................... 12313.6 Accommodation preferences .......................................................................................................................... 12413.7 Care & repair and staying put schemes .......................................................................................................... 12613.8 Support needs households and the basic needs assessment model ................................................................. 12613.9 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ 12714. Older person households .........................................................................................................12914.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 12914.2 The older person population........................................................................................................................... 12914.3 Characteristics of older person households .................................................................................................... 12914.4 Dwelling characteristics ................................................................................................................................. 13114.5 Accommodation preferences .......................................................................................................................... 13214.6 Older person households and the basic needs assessment model ................................................................... 13314.7 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ 13415. Key worker households............................................................................................................13515.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 13515.2 Number of key workers.................................................................................................................................. 13515.3 Housing characteristics of key worker households......................................................................................... 13615.4 Previous household moves of key worker households ................................................................................... 13715.5 Housing aspirations of key worker households .............................................................................................. 139iii

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 200615.6 Income and affordability of key worker households.......................................................................................14015.7 Key workers and the basic needs assessment model.......................................................................................14215.8 Summary .........................................................................................................................................................14316. Black and Minority Ethnic households.................................................................................. 14516.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................14516.2 Household size ................................................................................................................................................14516.3 Tenure .............................................................................................................................................................14616.4 Household type and support needs..................................................................................................................14816.5 Geographical location .....................................................................................................................................14916.6 Income and savings levels...............................................................................................................................15116.7 Unsuitable housing..........................................................................................................................................15116.8 BME households and the basic needs assessment model................................................................................15316.9 Country of birth...............................................................................................................................................15316.10 Summary .......................................................................................................................................................15417. Overcrowding and under-occupation .................................................................................... 15517.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................15517.2 Overcrowding and under-occupation ..............................................................................................................15517.3 Household characteristics................................................................................................................................15617.4 Income levels ..................................................................................................................................................15817.5 Moving intentions of under-occupying households ........................................................................................15917.6 Summary .........................................................................................................................................................159GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................................... 161Appendix A1 Further property price information ..................................................................... 165A1.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................165A1.2 Reasons for housing market study..................................................................................................................165A1.3 Background to housing market analysis.........................................................................................................166A1.4 Government guidance on the study of housing markets.................................................................................166A1.5 The need for primary data ..............................................................................................................................167A1.6 Estate agents survey: Methodology................................................................................................................168A1.7 Land Registry data .........................................................................................................................................169A1.8 Comparing prices in neighbouring areas........................................................................................................169A1.9 Historical results for Westminster ..................................................................................................................170A1.10 Differences within Westminster...................................................................................................................171A1.11 List of Estate Agents ....................................................................................................................................173Appendix A2 Supporting information ......................................................................................... 175A2.1 Non-response and missing data......................................................................................................................175A2.2 Weighting data ...............................................................................................................................................176Appendix A3 Balancing housing market analysis ...................................................................... 179A3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................179A3.2 Analysis of City of Westminster data.............................................................................................................179Appendix A4 Health and housing................................................................................................. 183A4.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................183iv

Table of ContentsA4.2 Tenure............................................................................................................................................................ 183A4.3 Dwelling characteristics ................................................................................................................................ 183A4.4 Geographical location.................................................................................................................................... 184A4.5 Household composition ................................................................................................................................. 185A4.6 Support needs and ethnicity........................................................................................................................... 186A4.7 Overcrowding/under-occupation ................................................................................................................... 187A4.8 Summary........................................................................................................................................................ 187Appendix A5 Attitudes to the local area ......................................................................................189A5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 189A5.2 Overall satisfaction........................................................................................................................................ 189A5.3 Geographical variations................................................................................................................................. 189Appendix A6 Comparisons between Westminster, Haringey and Barnet................................197A6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 197A6.2 Household composition ................................................................................................................................. 197A6.3 Financial information .................................................................................................................................... 198A6.4 Housing stock comparisons ........................................................................................................................... 198A6.5 House prices .................................................................................................................................................. 199A6.6 Threshold costs for market housing............................................................................................................... 201A6.7 Housing market activity................................................................................................................................. 202A6.8 Results of the Basic Needs Assessment Model ............................................................................................. 202A6.9 A comparison of imbalances in the whole housing market ........................................................................... 203A6.10 Summary...................................................................................................................................................... 204Appendix A7 Households with children.......................................................................................205A7.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 205A7.2 Tenure............................................................................................................................................................ 205A7.3 Dwelling characteristics ................................................................................................................................ 205A7.4 Geographical location.................................................................................................................................... 206A7.5 Household composition ................................................................................................................................. 206A7.6 Ethnicity ........................................................................................................................................................ 207A7.7 Overcrowding/under-occupation ................................................................................................................... 208A7.8 Summary........................................................................................................................................................ 208Appendix A8 Second Homes in Westminster ..............................................................................211A8.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 211A8.2 Household characteristics .............................................................................................................................. 211A8.3 Summary........................................................................................................................................................ 213Appendix A9 The social rented sector..........................................................................................215A9.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 215A9.2 Dwelling characteristics ................................................................................................................................ 215A9.3 Household composition ................................................................................................................................. 215A9.4 Ethnicity ........................................................................................................................................................ 216A9.5 Overcrowding/under-occupation ................................................................................................................... 216A9.6 Financial information .................................................................................................................................... 217A9.7 Social rented households and affordability.................................................................................................... 217v

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006A9.8 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................218Appendix A10 Survey Questionnaire........................................................................................... 219vi

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVE SUMMARYContext of the StudyFordham Research were commissioned to carry out a Housing Needs Assessment for The City ofWestminster. The study was designed to assess the future requirements for both affordable andmarket housing. To do this the study drew on a number of sources of information. These included:• Primary data collected using personal interviews• Interviews with local estate and letting agents• Review of secondary data (including Land Registry, Census and HSSA data).The City of Westminster – study areaSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 1

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Survey and initial dataThe study consisted of 1,261 personal interviews covering a wide range of issues. It includedquestions about:• Current housing circumstances• Past moves• Future housing intentions• The requirements of newly forming households• Income levelsInformation from the questionnaire survey was used throughout the report (along with secondaryinformation) to make estimates about the future housing requirements in the City.The data shows that just under half of households were owner-occupiers with around 22% in thesocial rented sector and around 34.3% in the private rented sector.TenureNumber of households in each tenure groupTotal numberof households% ofhouseholdsOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 21,668 19.3%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 27,451 24.4%Council 12,197 10.9%RSL 12,477 11.1%Private rented 38,602 34.3%TOTAL 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The survey reported on a number of general characteristics of households in the City ofWestminster. The study estimated that almost 90% of households lived in flats and that only 16.2%of all households contained children.The study also looked at car ownership (which is often used as an indication of wealth, however ina metropolitan area such as Westminster where public transport is very good the importance ofowning a car is diminished). The figure below shows car ownership in Westminster by tenure. It isclear that there are large differences between the different tenure groups, with owner-occupiers(with mortgage) having a significantly greater level of car ownership than households in the socialrented sector.PAGE 2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYCar ownership and tenureAverage number of cars/vans available foruse1.00.80.60.40.20.00.67Owneroccupied(nomortgage)0.88Owneroccupied(withmortgage)0.240.38 0.39Council RSL PrivaterentedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The study also looked at past trends in household movement and future expectations. The broadfindings were:• An estimated 22.5% of households have lived in their current home for less than two years;with 41.0% of moves occurring within the City.• In terms of future household moves, the survey estimates that 27,437 existing and 6,086potential households need or expect to move within the next two years. In both cases ahigher proportion would like to move to owner-occupation than expect to do so.One of the main sources of secondary information used was the Land Registry. This data sourcesuggested that property prices in the City of Westminster are above the national average and alsohigher than the regional average.Information from the Land Registry shows that between the 4 th Quarter of 2000 and the 4th quarterof 2005 average property prices in England and Wales rose by 79.7%. For London the increase was47.7% whilst for the City of Westminster the figure was 45.2%.PAGE 3

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Land Registry price changes 2000–2005 (4th quarters)£700,000£600,000£500,000England & WalesLondonWestminsterAverage price£400,000£300,000£200,000£100,000£02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005YearSource: HM Land Registry, property price data, 2006A survey of local estate and letting agents identified estimates of the minimum costs of housing toboth buy and rent in the City of Westminster. It revealed that property prices in the North West areaof the City (W9 and W10) were notably lower than elsewhere. Overall, the survey suggested thatprices started at around £198,000 for a one bedroom flat with private rental costs starting fromaround £890 per month.Minimum property prices/rent inCity of WestminsterProperty size Minimum priceMinimum rents(per month)1 bedroom £198,000 £8902 bedrooms £275,000 £1,2903 bedrooms £370,500 £1,7854 bedrooms £482,500 £2,617Source: Survey of Estate and Lettings Agents (2006)The information about minimum prices and rents was used along with financial informationcollected in the survey to make estimates of households’ ability to afford market housing (withoutthe need for subsidy).The survey estimated average gross annual household income (including non-housing benefits) tobe £45,587. There were, however, wide variations by tenure; with households living in social rentedhousing having particularly low income levels.PAGE 4

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYIncome and tenureOwner-occupied (nomortgage)£41,584Owner-occupied (withmortgage)£72,974Council£13,656RSL£23,528Private rented£45,578£0 £10,000 £20,000 £30,000 £40,000 £50,000 £60,000 £70,000 £80,000Annual gross household income (including non-housing benefits)Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The Guide modelAs part of the study, an estimate of the need for affordable housing was made based on the ‘BasicNeeds Assessment Model’ (BNAM). The BNAM is the main method for calculating affordablehousing requirements suggested in Government guidance ‘Local Housing Needs Assessment: AGuide to Good Practice’ (ODPM 2000).The BNAM sets out 18 stages of analysis to produce an estimate of the annual requirement foradditional affordable housing. The model can be summarised as three main analytical stages with afourth stage producing the final requirement figure. The stages are:• Backlog of existing need• Newly arising need• Supply of affordable units• Overall affordable housing requirementPAGE 5

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Summary of Basic Needs Assessment ModelSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Overall, using the BNAM it was estimated that there is currently a shortfall of affordable housing inthe City of 5,621 units per annum.The data suggested that there are shortfalls for all sizes of accommodation. The largest shortfall isfor one and two bedroom units. In addition the survey showed that there is a requirement foradditional affordable housing in all 5 of the sub-areas in the City; this is most apparent in theCentral Strip where the largest shortfalls are experienced.Putting the results in context suggests that the affordable housing requirement in City ofWestminster is significantly above averages found in other Fordham Research assessments bothnationally and regionally. The figure below shows the affordable housing requirement standardisedas an annual rate per thousand households.PAGE 6

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYTypical levels of need for new affordable housingWestminsterInner LondonOuter LondonSouth WestSouth EastUnited KingdomEastScotland & WalesWest MidlandsNorthEast Midlands4899121716162732510 10 20 30 40 50 60Affordable housing requiremement/000 householdsSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Broader Housing Market & Future ChangesIn addition to concentrating on the need for affordable housing in isolation the study looked athousing requirements in the private sector market. The analysis began by looking at the differencesbetween three broad housing sectors (owner-occupation, private rented and social rented). Thesurvey data revealed large differences between the three main tenure groups in terms of stockprofile (size of accommodation), turnover and receipt of housing benefit (or income supporttowards mortgage interest payments in the case of owner-occupiers). These figures are based oninformation collected in the survey, and on those households wishing to move in the next 2 years,therefore the figures will vary slightly from HSSA and CORE information.TenureProfile and turnover of stock and housing benefit claims by tenure% of properties withless than threebedroomsAnnual turnover ofstock (% ofhouseholds)% claiming housingbenefit (incomesupport for owners)Owner-occupied 41.4% 1.7% 0.9%Private rented 76.9% 35.1% 9.2%Social rented 72.8% 7.2% 43.9%ALL HOUSEHOLDS 60.4% 14.4% 11.2%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 7

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Having studied the need for affordable housing using the Basic Needs Assessment Model, the studymoved on to look at housing requirements across all tenures. A ‘Balancing Housing Markets’(BHM) assessment looks at the whole local housing market, considering the extent to which supplyand demand are ‘balanced’ across tenure and property size. This model is based on households’aspirations and level of stock in the City. It is important also to note that this does not take intoaccount households which may have an outside City solution.The inherent idea behind the BHM method is that it seeks to meet the requirements of the currentpopulation first with the amount of in-migration used to ‘balance’ figures to the estimated scale ofnew housing in the area. The table below shows the overall results of the BHM analysis.TenureTotal shortfall or (surplus)Size requirement1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTOTALOwner-occupation (334) 179 487 73 405Affordable housing 983 1,756 1,380 39 4,158Private rented (1,981) (1,180) (625) (97) (3,882)TOTAL (1,332) 755 1,243 14 680Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A number of conclusions can be drawn from this analysis:i) In terms of the demand for affordable housing in the City it is clear that this is on-going.The BHM methodology suggests a significant shortfall of affordable housing of all sizesof accommodation, most notably two and three bedroom homes.ii)Overall, the data shows a shortfall in the owner-occupied sector. Within this sector thereis a shortfall of all dwelling sizes with the exception of one bedroom properties whichdisplay a surplus. The main shortage is for three bedroom homes.iii)The model indicates that there is a large surplus in the private rented sector. In this sectorall dwelling sizes show a surplus, since many households view this sector as anundesirable long term solution whilst the supply of private rented housing is likely to belarge due to the temporary nature of the tenure.PAGE 8

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe Needs of Particular groupsThe study moved on from a consideration of future needs for additional housing to look at the needsof particular groups. The survey concentrated on the characteristics and requirements of householdswith support needs, older person households, key workers, Black and Minority Ethnic householdsand overcrowded households.Households with support needsThere are groups that may, because of their condition or vulnerability, have requirements forspecialised forms of housing provision, or else require support services in order to continue livingan independent life in their existing home. Some 11.5% of all the City of Westminster’s households(12,971) contain support needs members. 'Physically disabled' is the largest category with supportneeds.CategorySupport needs categoriesNumber ofhouseholds% of allhouseholds% ofsupportneedshouseholdsFrail elderly 5,042 4.5% 38.9%Physical disability 7,451 6.6% 57.4%Learning disability 59 0.1% 0.5%Mental health problem 2,782 2.5% 21.5%Severe sensory disability 256 0.2% 2.0%Other 570 0.5% 4.4%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Support needs households, identified in the table above, are generally smaller than the average forthe City of Westminster, and are disproportionately made up of older persons only. Support needshouseholds are more likely than households overall to be in unsuitable housing.Support needs households in general stated a requirement for a wide range of adaptations andimprovements to the home. A lift/stair lift and level access shower units were most commonlyrequired.PAGE 9

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Older person householdsOlder persons are defined as those of a pensionable age i.e. men aged 65 or older and women aged60 or over. Some 17.7% of households in the City of Westminster contain older persons only, and afurther 5.0% contain a mix of both older and non-older persons.Older person only households are solely comprised of one or two persons, providing implicationsfor future caring patterns. Although the majority of older person only households live in the privatesector, it is interesting to note that a relatively high proportion of social rented accommodationhouses older people only (24.2%).Key worker householdsThe term intermediate housing is often used with reference to specific groups of households such askey workers. The survey therefore analysed such households (the definition being based oncategories of employment and notably including public sector workers). Analysis of survey dataindicates that there are an estimated 12,109 people in key worker occupations.Key worker categoriesCategory Number of persons % of key workersHealth (NHS) 4,557 37.6%Education 3,727 30.8%Community, social services, prison andprobation staff2,827 23.3%Emergency services 825 6.8%Transport 143 1.2%Local authority planners 31 0.3%TOTAL 12,109 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The survey also estimated that 6,972 households are headed by a key worker; these householdswere subject to additional analysis. The main findings from further analysis of this group ofhouseholds can be summarised as follows:PAGE 10

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY• Around 15% of key worker households had moved in the last five years, below that of nonkeyworkers; they were more likely to have moved from social rented accommodation thannon-key workers• Key worker households are more likely to want to move within the City and are more likelyto want to buy their own home• Key worker households have slightly higher incomes than non-key worker households (inemployment)• Some 52.5% of key worker households can afford market housing in the City. Of those thatcannot afford it, 88.1% can afford intermediate housing options• In terms of the need for affordable housing the study suggests that around 0.8% of the netaffordable housing requirement comes from key worker householdsBlack & Minority Ethnic householdsInformation was gathered in the survey to find out the ethnic origin of the head of household (andpartner if applicable) for each sample household in the survey. Due to the small sample size of someof the groups, some of the categories have been re-classified, resulting in nine different ethnicgroups. The table below shows estimates of the number of households in each of the nine ethnicgroups.Ethnic groupNumber of households in each ethnic groupTotal number ofhouseholds% of householdsWhite - British 65,921 58.7%White - Irish 4,914 4.4%White - Other 17,195 15.3%Mixed 3,021 2.7%Asian or Asian British 7,213 6.4%Black or Black British - African 5,604 5.0%Black or Black British - Other 2,173 1.9%Arab 4,439 3.9%Any other ethnic group 1,914 1.7%All households 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The survey indicates that Mixed households have the highest average household size with anestimated 3.33 persons per household. In contrast White - British households have the lowestaverage household size at 1.74 persons per household. These figures compare with a City averageof 1.96 persons per household.PAGE 11

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006The survey showed considerable difference in both income and savings levels between the differentgroups. Overall an estimated 41.9% of the gross affordable housing requirement is for householdsheaded by a White-Other person.Overcrowding and under-occupationFinally, the survey looked briefly at overcrowding and under-occupation, overcrowding havingbeen shown as one of the most important reason for households to be living in unsuitable housing.The study suggested that 2.7% of all households are overcrowded and 20.9% under-occupy theirdwelling. The owner-occupied (no mortgage) sector shows the highest levels of under-occupation;the Council rented sector the highest overcrowding.Overcrowding and under-occupationNumber ofNumber of bedrooms in homebedrooms required 1 2 3 4+ TOTAL1 bedroom 33,477 24,462 18,101 2,575 78,6152 bedrooms 1,496 7,937 10,258 2,765 22,4563 bedrooms 13 553 5,285 3,721 9,5724+ bedrooms 11 36 515 1,191 1,753TOTAL 34,997 32,988 34,159 10,252 112,395KEY: Overcrowded households Under-occupied householdsNote:The bottom two cells of the 4+ bedroom column contain some households that are eitherovercrowded or under-occupied – for example they may require three bedrooms but live ina five bedroom property or may require a five bedroom property but currently be occupyinga four bedroom property.Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Overcrowded households tend to have low incomes (per person) and are far more likely to state thatthey need or expect to move than other households.ConclusionsThe housing needs assessment in the City of Westminster provides a detailed analysis of housingrequirement issues across the whole of the City. The study began by following the Basic NeedsAssessment Model, which estimated a shortfall of 5,621 affordable dwellings per annum (for thenext five years).PAGE 12

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe study continued by looking at requirements in the whole housing market using a ‘BalancingHousing Markets’ methodology. This again suggested a significant requirement for additionalaffordable housing to be provided along with a requirement for units with two or more bedrooms inthe owner-occupied sector.In the light of the affordable housing requirement shown, it would be sensible to suggest that theCouncil will need to maximise the availability of affordable housing from all possible sources(including new build, acquisitions, conversions etc). Attention should also be paid to the cost (tooccupants) of any additional housing to make sure that it can actually meet the needs identified inthe survey.PAGE 13

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006PAGE 14

SECTION A: CONTEXT OF THE STUDYSECTION A: CONTEXT OF THE STUDYThis report is the result of a Housing Needs Assessment undertaken by Fordham Research on behalfof City of Westminster. It provides an overview of the housing situation in the City of Westminster,calculating an estimate of affordable housing requirements and also looking at housing demandacross all tenures and property sizes.Data collection and analysis for the assessment has been implemented in line with ODPM guidance,which was published in 2000 in an attempt to standardise Housing Needs Assessments. Theseassessments are a key piece of research for Local Authorities, informing the development ofAffordable Housing Policies.The report is divided into five sections. The first sets the scene in the City of Westminster,pinpointing key issues within the City’s housing sector, which are then addressed within thefollowing chapters. The second section provides a summary of data collection techniques andoutlines the range of information collected, explaining its importance for assessing housing need.The third section works through the three stages of the model, as outlined by ODPM guidance, inorder to assess whether there is a shortfall or surplus of affordable housing in the City ofWestminster. The fourth section considers the degree to which the housing market in the City ofWestminster is in balance and the fifth considers housing requirements of specific groups.PAGE 15


1. Introduction1. Introduction1.1 IntroductionThis report contains a comprehensive assessment of housing need across all tenures in the City ofWestminster area. Three main aims and objectives were set out in the Council’s brief for theproject. These are summarised as:• Analyse the housing market and assess levels of housing need across all tenures within theCity of Westminster• Inform the Council’s Local Development Framework• Guide future investment in the provision of social and intermediate housing.1.2 City of WestminsterThe City of Westminster is located in the heart of London and is bordered by the London boroughsof Kensington and Chelsea to the west, Brent to the north-west, Camden to the North, the City ofLondon to the east, and Lambeth and Wandsworth to the south.The City of Westminster is a diverse and extremely high profile borough containing a largeproportion of the country’s major public and private buildings including the Palace of Westminsterand Buckingham Palace. It is also home to many cultural and historical attractions such as MadameTussauds and the West End Theatres. Many of the city’s major retail centres are also located withinWestminster, from Oxford Street to Covent Garden. It is also home to several large areas of openspace such as St James’s Park, Green Park, Hyde Park and Regent’s Park.In terms of public transport, the City of Westminster is very well connected, and served by amajority of the Underground lines (Victoria, Jubilee, Central, Piccadilly, Bakerloo, Northern,Circle, District, Hammersmith & City, Metropolitan), as well as major National Rail stations ofPaddington, Marylebone, Charing Cross and Victoria.According to the Indices of Deprivation, in 2004, the City of Westminster ranked 18 th out of 33London boroughs (1 being the most deprived).PAGE 17

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure 1.1 City of Westminster – study areaSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20061.3 Population projectionsOne further topic of interest is to consider population projections. The Greater London Authority(GLA) has calculated projections for each individual Borough. Projections are taken from a 2001base and have been projected to 2021.The table below shows population estimates for five year periods up to 2021. Also included is datafor 2001 (the base date of the projections). Incremental changes are also shown for each five yearperiod.PAGE 18

1. IntroductionTable 1.1 Population change in the City 2001-2021Date Population Change % change2001 203,3292006 214,727 11,398 5.61%2011 214,658 -69 -0.03%2016 218,438 3,780 1.76%2021 221,033 2,595 1.19%TOTAL 17,704 8.71%Source: Greater London AuthorityThe table indicates an increase in population over the period. Overall the population is projected toreach 221,033 by 2021, an increase of 8.71% over 20 years.It is also worth looking briefly at projected changes in age structure. The table below shows theabove figures broken down into different age bands.Table 1.2 Populations projections by ageAge band 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021Change(2001-2021)%changefrom20010-19 34,446 36,524 38,243 39,676 40,125 5,679 16.5%20-29 47,231 42,620 38,459 38,545 38,656 -8,575 -18.2%30-44 56,468 69,485 70,901 70,240 69,354 12,886 22.8%45-49 10,652 12,723 14,417 15,487 16,005 5,353 50.3%50-54 11,926 10,631 11,793 13,182 13,896 1,970 16.5%55-59 9,952 11,100 9,890 10,871 11,893 1,941 19.5%60-64 8,034 8,361 8,816 8,148 8,852 818 10.2%65-69 7,037 6,509 6,479 6,930 6,491 -546 -7.8%70-74 6,226 5,614 5,104 5,182 5,554 -672 -10.8%75-79 4,982 4,797 4,308 4,056 4,161 -821 -16.5%80-84 3,379 3,509 3,376 3,156 3,047 -332 -9.8%85+ 2,996 2,853 2,871 2,967 2,999 3 0.1%ALL AGES 203,329 214,727 214,658 218,438 221,033 17,704 8.7%Source: Greater London AuthorityThe overall results can be summarised as:1. The 0-19 age group shows an increase to 2021 of 5,679 persons (16.5%).2. The 20-29 age group shows a decrease of 8,575 persons (-18.2%). This group is of interestas many new households will come from this segment of the population.PAGE 19

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 20063. The 45-59 age group shows a sharp increase of 28.5%. This group is of interest as many ofthese people will be economically active and towards the end of their career so could beexpected to be on higher earnings.4. There is expected to be a projected decrease in the number of people aged 65 and over of9.6% in the period to 2021. This group is likely to mainly be retirees icluding those thatrequire additional care.It is important to note, that when compared with population projections produced by the Officefor National Statistics (ONS), however, the GLA projections appear to be conservative.Westminster’s population growth to 2021 from ONS data is 72,000 more than the GLAestimate.1.4 Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix dataOne further source of data that is of interest is the Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix (HSSA)data. This data source contains a significant amount of data about the local housing stock includingthe number of dwellings, vacancy rates, supply information and information about levels ofaffordable house building. For the purposes of this section we look briefly at the Housing Register(Section C) and homelessness (Section E).The table below shows the number of households on the Housing Register from 2002 to 2005 (alldata is as of 1 st April). The data shows that as of April 2005 there were 6,565 households on theHousing Register. The table indicates that between 2002 and 2003 the number of registeredhouseholds almost doubled, but since 2003 the number has been more consistent varying between5,600 and 6,600.Table 1.3 Number on Housing Register2002-2005YearNumber ofhouseholds2002 3,7092003 6,5912004 5,6672005 6,565Source: City of Westminster HSSA returnsPAGE 20

1. IntroductionThe table below shows the number of homeless acceptances per annum for the period 2002 to 2006.The table shows that between 2002 and 2005 the numbers remained largely the same before fallingnotably between 2005 and 2006. This was largely due to the remodelling of the service to focus onhomelessness prevention from October 2005.Table 1.4 Number of householdsaccepted as homeless 2002-2006YearNumber ofhouseholds2002 1,1542003 1,0742004 1,1172005 1,1142006 931Source: Westminster Borough Council HSSA returns1.5 Property prices and income levelsLand Registry data for the fourth quarter of 2005 demonstrates that house prices in the City ofWestminster have increased by 45.2% over the five year period from 2000: a lower rate thanobserved nationally and a slightly lower rate than observed regionally. The average house price at£590,661 is higher than the average for England and Wales, and also higher than the Londonaverage.Data from the 2005 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings suggests that the median full-time wageof residents in the City is £30,101. Average prices are therefore more than nineteen times averageincomes. On the basis of this data alone it is clear that there is likely to be an issue of access toaffordable housing for many households.1.6 SummaryThe City of Westminster is located in the heart of London and spans a number of high profile areas.In 2006, the population was estimated to be around 214,727. As would be expected of a Londonborough, at £590,661, average house prices are significantly higher than those found nationally,though the rate of increase is lower (largely due to the high base price).Secondary data shows that the number of households on the Housing Register is high at 6,565(April 2005) as is the level of homelessness acceptances, although this is falling. Populationprojections indicate that the population of the City of Westminster is set to grow at a gradual rate inPAGE 21

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006the future (by 8.7% between 2001 to 2021) and that a large proportion of this growth will be ofthose aged 45-59.PAGE 22

2. Housing Needs Assessment - background2. Housing Needs Assessment - background2.1 IntroductionThe assessment closely follows guidance set out by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister in‘Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to Good Practice’ (July 2000). It should be noted thatthroughout this report reference is made to the ODPM Guidance, although at the time of publicationthe Department was titled DETR. The main aspect of the ODPM guide is its Basic NeedsAssessment Model (BNAM) which is discussed further in this chapter.In March 2005 a ‘discussion draft’ of a revision to the above guidance was published. In additionthe Housing Markets Assessments Draft practice guidance published by the ODPM in December2005 provides advice on how housing need should be assessed. This report has taken account ofsome of the main changes proposed in the new guidance and several elements of the methodology,such as the affordability test and unsuitable housing categories, have been adjusted accordingly. It isunlikely that these will change when the new guidance is finalised.The study also looks at housing requirements using our ‘Balancing Housing Markets’ methodology(BHM). This is a demand-led method which looks at potential housing shortages (and surpluses)across the whole housing market – including affordable housing. This requirement has been broughtinto focus as part of the Audit Commission’s Comprehensive Performance Assessment (CPA). TheCPA includes the requirement for local authorities to consider ‘balancing housing markets’.In carrying out this assessment using both the BNAM and the BHM we are able to cast someconsiderable light on the housing situation in the City of Westminster. The two methods are quitecomplementary. The BNAM looks predominantly at trend data whilst the BHM studies households’future aspirations, expectations and affordability.The two methods taken together provide detail on certain crucial matters, such as the types ofaffordable housing which can meet housing need and suggested affordable housing policy responses(such as target and threshold levels).2.2 Key points from the housing needs assessment guideThe basis for carrying out housing needs assessments has been standardised by the publication ofthe Guide (formally: Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to Good Practice – ODPMHousing, July 2000). Since the Guide provides the test of a good Housing Needs Assessment, it isimportant to summarise its key features. This section is devoted to that purpose.PAGE 23

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006(i) IntroductionThis Guide, published in July 2000, has gone a long way to filling the gap which has been apparentever since, in Circular 7/91, the Government told councils they could seek affordable housingprovided that there was evidence of housing need (without defining ‘need’). There are still anumber of detailed difficulties with the advice, but they are minor compared with the gaps that havebeen filled. The following summary focuses upon the key issues, and in particular those that affectaffordable housing.It should be noted that the ODPM published, in December 2005, a Housing Markets AssessmentsDraft practice guidance which provided advice on how housing need should be assessed. Thequestionnaires for this survey were agreed before this guidance was published and so follow thecurrent Guide. However, this report has taken account of some of the main changes proposed in thenew guidance and several elements of the methodology. All future references in this report to the‘ODPM Guide’ refer to the current guidance, since the subsequent version published in March 2005and the advice contained within the Housing Market Assessment Draft practice guidance December2005 were both very much drafts.(ii) Definition of housing needThe definition of housing need controls which households are defined as being in need, andindirectly affects what constitutes affordable housing. Affordable housing is, in principle, designedto address the identified housing need. The current Guide defines a household in housing need asone which is living in housing that is not suitable for its requirements and who cannot afford toresolve this unsuitability within the private sector housing market.ODPMGuide‘Housing need refers to households lacking their own housing or living in housingwhich is inadequate or unsuitable, who are unlikely to be able to meet their needsin the housing market without some assistance’. [Appendix 2 (page 116)](iii) ProcedureAn 18-stage procedure is set out in the Guide. This is aimed at producing an estimate of the netneed for new affordable housing. Thus the Guide is very much geared to the requirements ofplanning for clear indications of the affordable housing requirement. The following tablereproduces the stages from the key table of the Guide.PAGE 24

2. Housing Needs Assessment - backgroundThe table includes an element of in-migrant need (Stage 12). Out-migration is accounted for inStage 2 of the model and also by implication at Stages 8/9. Additionally where a supply ofaffordable housing arises due to out-migrating households this is included as part of the calculationsat Stage 14.Table 2.1 Basic Needs Assessment Model:(from Table 2.1 of the Guide)Element and Stage in CalculationB: BACKLOG OF EXISTING NEED1. Households living in unsuitable housing2. minus cases where in-situ solution most appropriate3. times proportion unable to afford to buy or rent in market4. plus Backlog (non-households)5. equals total Backlog need6. times quota to progressively reduce backlog7. equals annual need to reduce BacklogN: NEWLY ARISING NEED8. New household formation (gross, p.a.)9. times proportion unable to buy or rent in market10. plus ex-institutional population moving into community11. plus existing households falling into need12. plus in-migrant households unable to afford market housing13. equals Newly arising needS: SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE UNITS14. Supply of social relets p.a.15. minus increased vacancies & units taken out of management16. plus committed units of new affordable supply p.a.17. equals affordable supply18. Overall shortfall/surplusSource: Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to Good Practice– ODPM Housing, 2000(iv) ConclusionsThe Guide provides a coherent definition of housing need, and a great deal of advice on how toimplement it. This report has been prepared in accordance with the Guide. Throughout this reportkey methodological quotes from the guide are highlighted in boxes. This is to help the readerunderstand and to reinforce the reasoning behind the analysis carried out.PAGE 25

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 20062.3 Key points from Balancing Housing MarketsAs part of the Balancing the Housing Market component of the Comprehensive PerformanceAssessment conducted by the Audit Commission, each Council must assess the extent to which itunderstands its entire housing market, the extent to which it is taking appropriate actions to balancethe housing market, and to demonstrate that it is adequately monitoring progress in achieving abalanced housing market.The suggestion of ‘Balancing Housing Markets’, indeed, appears in the ODPM guidance onHousing Needs Assessment (under the heading of ‘Gross Flows’).ODPMGuide‘A further development of the approach (the Basic Needs Assessment Model)together with demographic components is to try to build a model showing the grossannual flows of households between each of the main tenures within the City. Sucha model would also show the flows of new and migrant households into the systemand of dissolving and out-migrating households out of the system’. [Appendix A7.4(page 157)]Fordham Research has developed an innovative methodology to allow the information gathered inthe housing needs assessment to be used as part of the diagnostic assessment the Council is requiredto undertake. A full chapter in the report is devoted to this analysis, which assesses the extent towhich housing markets are balanced and suggests the directions the Council might take to approacha more balanced condition. This Balancing Housing Market methodology (an Adapted Gross Flowsapproach) shows exactly what shortages and surpluses exist and are likely to persist in the mediumterm according to size of dwelling and tenure in relation to the aspirations and affordability ofwould-be movers. Aspirations of households are determined by direct questions in the survey andare different from their assessed needs, as calculated during analysis with reference to thehousehold size and composition.Whilst one of the outputs of the BHM model is an estimate of the shortfall of affordable housingthis should not be taken as an estimate of the absolute need for such housing. As the BHM is ademand and aspiration driven model (unlike the BNAM, which is mainly based on past trends andon need as calculated with reference to a strict bedroom standard) there are inevitably somehouseholds who have a demand for affordable housing but under the BNAM would not beconsidered as needing such housing. Additionally as the bulk of the supply in the BHM is based onexpected future household moves it is often the case that this model shows a lower supply level thanthe trend data of the BNAM (typically drawn from the HSSA).PAGE 26

2. Housing Needs Assessment - backgroundIt is therefore common to find that the BHM shows a slightly higher estimate of the affordablerequirement than the BNAM but this should not be taken as the survey’s base estimate of theabsolute requirement for affordable housing (which is measured using the ODPM's Basic NeedsAssessment Model). The BHM is however particularly useful at ascertaining what shortages exist inthe private sector market and can help to guide councils in securing an appropriate mix of markethousing on new housing developments.The inherent idea behind the BHM method is that it seeks to meet the requirements of the currentpopulation first with the amount of in-migration used to ‘balance’ figures to the estimatedhousehold growth of an area.2.4 SummaryHousing Needs Assessments have become, over the past decade, a standard requirement for localauthorities across Britain. The publication of Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to GoodPractice by ODPM in July 2000 has now standardised the form of such assessments. They aredesigned to underpin housing and planning strategies by providing relevant data for them.In addition to focussing on the need for affordable housing, this study addresses housingrequirements across all housing tenures. This is with a view to producing information, which willassist policy making in relation to both housing and planning policy, as well as the ComprehensivePerformance Assessment.PAGE 27


SECTION B: SURVEY AND INITIAL DATASECTION B: SURVEY AND INITIAL DATAThis section starts by giving a brief description of data collection and then moves on to outline theaffordability assessments used in estimating the affordable housing requirement. The two crucialtypes of information required for these assessments are current market housing ‘entry-level’ pricesand households’ financial information.It is important to note that the data in some of the tables in this report may not necessarily add up tothe totals presented, or alternatively some of the percentage figures may not sum to 100%. This isdue to the rounding of the survey data during the analysis.PAGE 29


3. Data collection3. Data collection3.1 IntroductionThe primary data was collected using personal interviews, a total of 1,261 were undertaken. Thesehouseholds were selected completely at random. The number of responses provides sufficient datato allow complete, accurate and detailed analysis of needs across the City and geographicalbreakdowns for the 5 sub-areas identified in the City.Prior to analysis, data must be weighted in order to take account of any measurable bias. Theprocedure for this is presented in the following sections.3.2 Base household figures and weighting proceduresFirstly, the total number of households is estimated. This is necessary in order to gross up the datato represent the entire household population. A number of different sources were consulted,primarily the Council’s Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix (HSSA) (2005), the Council TaxRegister and 2001 Census results. Using this information, the base household figure for City ofWestminster was estimated as follows:Total number of households = 112,395Analysis of the survey data indicated the presence of a significant number of student-onlyhouseholds living in the private rented sector. Student households are a special case, particularly inrelation to affordable housing. Most have low incomes but do not generally qualify for affordablehousing due to the short-term nature of their residence. Although student-only households raisetheir own housing issues, as these do not directly impact on the need for affordable housing, theyare not addressed in the affordability model in this study. Analysis of the data shows an estimated3,215 student-only households in the City of Westminster. It will be indicated in each particularsection where student households have been removed.It should be noted that although student households are excluded from the assessment of theaffordable housing need, they can form part of the projection of housing need. Such households willappear as part of the projection where information based on past trends suggests that suchhouseholds have moved into ‘ordinary’ residential accommodation.PAGE 31

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 20063.3 Base figuresThe table below shows an estimate of the current tenure split in the City of Westminster along withthe sample achieved in each group. The data shows that 43.7% of households were owner-occupierswith 22.0% in the social rented sector and around a third in the private rented sector. The privaterented sector includes those living in tied accommodation and those living in accommodationowned by relatives or friends.TenureTable 3.1 Number of households in each tenure groupTotalnumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNumber ofreturns% of returnsOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 21,668 19.3% 245 20.1%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 27,451 24.4% 263 21.6%Council 12,197 10.9% 265* 21.8%RSL 12,477 11.1% 152 12.5%Private rented 38,602 34.3% 293 24.1%TOTAL 112,395 100.0% 1,218 100.0%* The sample for council tenants is particularly large, however since the survey has been weighted according to HSSAinformation the weighted survey distribution corrects this imbalance.Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Survey data was weighted to match the suggested tenure profile shown above. An important aspectof preparing data for analysis is ‘weighting’ it. As can be seen from the table above, social surveyresponses never exactly match the estimated population totals. As a result it is necessary to‘rebalance’ the data to correctly represent the population being analysed.ODPMGuide‘If inconsistencies are found between survey results and benchmark sources, theremay be a case for re-weighting the data in-line with the distribution indicated by thebenchmark source’. [Section 4.2 (page 54)]Data was also weighted to be in line with the estimated number of households in each of variousgroups (along with tenure displayed above):• 20 wards (from Council Tax Register)• Number of people in household (2001 Census)• Household type (2001 Census)• Accommodation type (2001 Census)• Car ownership (2001 Census)• Ethnicity of the household head (2001 Census)PAGE 32

3. Data collectionThe estimated number of households and number of responses for each of these groups is shown inAppendix A3.3.4 Sub-areasSampling for the survey was such that results are statistically significant for each of the 5 sub-areasin the City. The figure below shows the wards within the City of Westminster, and their attributedsub-area.Figure 3.1 City of Westminster sub-areasWestminster sub-areasNorth WestNorthCentral StripSouth CentralSouthSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20063.5 SummaryThe Housing Needs Assessment included a survey carried out on a random sample of households inthe City of Westminster area. Data was collected using personal interviews, providing a totalsample of 1,261 households, which is sufficient data to allow reliable analysis of housing need inaccordance with ODPM guidance.PAGE 33

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006The survey data was grossed up to an estimated total of households and weighted according to keycharacteristics so as to be representative of the City’s household population. In total it is estimatedthat there were 112,395 resident households at the time of the survey.PAGE 34

4. Current Housing in the City of Westminster4. Current Housing in the City of Westminster4.1 IntroductionThis chapter sets out some of the main findings from the survey of local households. Throughoutthe analysis tabulations are made along with tenure (shown in the previous chapter).4.2 Type of housingThe table below shows current accommodation types in the City. The table shows that 11.4% ofhouseholds live in houses or bungalows, whilst 88.6% live in flats. The main house type in the Cityis a purpose built flat. Additionally, just 80 households stated that they were living in a bungalow.Dwelling typeTable 4.1 Dwelling typeNumber ofhouseholds% of householdsDetached house/bungalow* 747 0.7%Semi-detached house/bungalow 2,804 2.5%Terraced house/bungalow 9,166 8.2%Purpose-built flat/maisonette 68,089 60.5%Other flat/maisonette** 31,588 28.1%TOTAL 112,395 100.0%* Includes mobile homes**Other flat/maisonette includes flats that are part of a converted or shared house and flats in a commercialbuildingSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006By tenure a clear trend emerges with households living in owner-occupation more likely to live inhouses/bungalows. There are relatively few houses/bungalows outside of the owner-occupied tenuregroup. The rented sector has a higher proportion of flats that are part of a converted or shared houseand flats in a commercial building.PAGE 35

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure 4.1 Dwelling type by tenureOwner-occupied (no mortgage)Owner-occupied (with mortgage)CouncilRSLPrivate rented0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Detached Semi-detached Terraced Purpose built flat Other flatSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20064.3 Household typeThe table below shows the household type breakdown in the City. The survey estimates that justunder a fifth of households are pensioner only, and that only 16.2% of households contain children.The most common household type is single non-pensioner. The data reveals that 2.6% ofhouseholds are lone parent households.Household typeTable 4.2 Household typeNumber ofhouseholds% of householdsSingle pensioner 15,914 14.2%2 or more pensioners 3,938 3.5%Single non-pensioner 39,032 34.7%2 or more adults, no children 35,328 31.4%Lone parent 2,896 2.6%2+ adults, 1 child 7,483 6.7%2+ adults, 2+ children 7,805 6.9%TOTAL 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 36

4. Current Housing in the City of WestminsterThe figure below shows household type by tenure. As with dwelling type there are clear differencesbetween the tenure groups. The owner-occupied (no mortgage) sector contains the largestproportion of pensioner households. The council rented and the owner-occupied (with mortgage)sectors have the largest proportion of households with children. Non-pensioner households that donot contain children dominate the private rented sector.Figure 4.2 Household type by tenureOwner-occupied (no mortgage)Owner-occupied (with mortgage)CouncilRSLPrivate rented0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Single pensioner 2 or more pensioners Single non-pensioner2 or more adults, no children Lone parent 2+ adults, 1 child2+ adults, 2+ childrenSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20064.4 Car ownershipA further question asked in the City of Westminster survey was car ownership/availability. Althoughthe central location of Westminster means that households are less likely to own a car thanelsewhere in London, it can still be a useful variable for some indication of wealth. The table belowshows the number of cars households have available for use by tenure.Over two thirds of all households in social rented housing have no access to a car or van, thiscompares with one-third of owner-occupied (with mortgage) households. The average householdhas 0.55 cars; this figure varies from 0.24 for households in Council rented accommodation to 0.88for owner-occupiers with a mortgage.PAGE 37

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Table 4.3 Car ownership and tenureNumber of cars/vans available for useTenureAverage0 1 2 3+ number ofcars/vansOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 44.3% 46.9% 6.7% 2.2% 0.67Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 33.1% 47.9% 16.5% 2.4% 0.88Council 78.9% 18.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.24RSL 67.6% 28.6% 2.1% 1.7% 0.38Private rented 66.4% 28.9% 3.8% 0.9% 0.39TOTAL 55.5% 35.9% 7.1% 1.5% 0.55Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20064.5 Commuting patternsThe survey questionnaire also looked at commuting patterns and the place of work. The table belowshows the place of work of the head of household, and shows that almost a third work within theCity of Westminster (including those that work at home), a quarter work elsewhere in London and43.5% are not in employment, although this category does include students.Place of workTable 4.4 Place of workNumber ofhouseholds% of householdsWork mainly from home 4,644 4.1%In City of Westminster 30,701 27.3%Elsewhere in London 26,518 23.6%Elsewhere in the South East 665 0.6%Elsewhere in the UK 404 0.4%Abroad 500 0.4%Not in employment 48,963 43.6%TOTAL 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The average journey time of all heads of households in employment is 21 minutes. The averagejourney time for those that work in the City of Westminster is 19 minutes, whilst for those that workelsewhere in London the average journey time is 25 minutes. This average journey time is low incomparison to other London boroughs, as Westminster is particularly well connected in terms ofpublic transport.PAGE 38

4. Current Housing in the City of WestminsterThe table below presents the areas within the City of Westminster that household heads stated theyworked in. The data shows that 12.5% of heads of households working in City of Westminster workin the West End and 12.3% work in St James’s.Table 4.5 Place of work within City of WestminsterWard of work (within City ofWestminster)% of householdsWest End 12.5%St James’s 12.3%Lancaster Gate 9.4%Hyde Park 7.9%Marylebone 7.6%Maida Vale 6.9%Harrow Road 6.1%Warwick 6.0%Knightsbridge & Belgravia 4.9%Abbey Road 4.1%Queens Park 4.1%Bayswater 3.8%Churchill 3.3%Little Venice 3.1%Bryanston & Dorset 2.7%Church Street 1.7%Westbourne 1.4%Tachbrook 0.8%Regents Park 0.8%Vincent Square 0.6%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Similarly, the table below presents the other London boroughs in which household heads stated theyworked. The data shows that of the 26,518 heads of household that work elsewhere in London,33.0% work in the City of London, 14.8% work in Kensington & Chelsea and 13.1% work inCamden.PAGE 39

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Borough of work (elsewherein London)Table 4.6 Place of work within London% of householdsCity of London 33.0%Kensington & Chelsea 14.8%Camden 13.1%Lambeth 6.3%Southwark 6.0%Hammersmith & Fulham 5.6%Tower Hamlets 3.3%Wandsworth 2.5%Brent 2.2%Ealing 2.1%Islington 2.1%Haringey 2.0%Hounslow 1.9%Newham 1.9%Hackney 1.2%Hillingdon 0.7%Barnet 0.7%Croydon 0.2%Bromley 0.1%Enfield 0.1%Lewisham 0.1%Barking & Dagenham 0.1%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 40

4. Current Housing in the City of Westminster4.6 Transience of households in WestminsterThe table below indicates the length of time households have lived in Westminster. The dataindicates that some 63.2% of households in the City of Westminster have lived in Westminster formore than ten years, indicating that the majority of households see the City as a long-term place ofresidence. Around 15% of households have lived in Westminster for less than two years.How long lived inWestminsterTable 4.7 Length of residency in WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% of householdsLess than one year 10,888 9.7%1 to 2 years 6,385 5.7%2 to 5 years 13,247 11.8%5 to 10 years 10,823 9.6%Over 10 years 51,595 45.9%Always lived here 19,457 17.3%TOTAL 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below indicates the number of times households have moved home in the last two years.The data shows that 22.5% of households have lived at their home for at least two years. Of thosehouseholds that have moved home in the last two years, the majority (76.4%) have moved onlyonce. However there are some 4,389 households that have moved twice and an estimated 1,590households that have moved three or more times. This indicates that whilst the majority ofhouseholds in City of Westminster do not move home on a regular basis a subset of the populationare highly transient.Table 4.8 Number of house moves in the last two yearsNumber of movesNumber ofhouseholds% of householdsNone 87,053 77.5%One 19,363 17.2%Two 4,389 3.9%Three or more 1,590 1.4%TOTAL 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 41

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 20064.7 Past movesAn important part of the survey analysis concerns past household moves. This is for both existingand newly forming households moving in the last two years. These moves are important in terms ofestimates of projected future needs (which are largely based on past trend information). Newlyforming households are households that were previously living with parents, friends or relative.Existing households are all other households.The table below sets out the number and proportion of households who have moved home withinthe past two years. The data suggests that 22.5% of households in the City of Westminster havemoved home in the last two years. Most of these moves were made by existing households.Table 4.9 Past moves in City of WestminsterType of moving householdNumber ofhouseholds% of householdsNewly forming households 3,441 3.1%Existing households 21,901 19.5%Non-movers 87,053 77.5%TOTAL 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006This data can further be looked at in terms of trends in migration. The table below shows thelocations of previous homes for both the newly forming and existing households. The table shows aconsiderable proportion of households moved from outside the City. In total 41.0% of moves weremade from an address within the City, almost 30% were made from elsewhere in London witharound a fifth of moves from abroad. Existing households are less likely to have moved fromoutside the City than newly forming households. Newly forming households are more likely to havemoved from abroad than existing households. Existing households however are more likely to havemoved into the City of Westminster from elsewhere in London.Location of previous homeTable 4.10 Location of previous homeNewlyforminghouseholdsExistinghouseholdTOTALCity of Westminster 10.0% 45.9% 41.0%Elsewhere in London 8.4% 33.3% 29.9%Elsewhere in the South East 0.3% 0.7% 0.7%Elsewhere in the UK 5.6% 9.8% 9.2%Abroad 75.7% 10.3% 19.2%TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 42

4. Current Housing in the City of WestminsterHouseholds moving from abroad are most likely to live in the Abbey Road, Queen’s Park andWestbourne wards. They are also much more likely to be living in private rented accommodation.Some 96.5% of households that have moved into the City of Westminster from abroad in the lasttwo years live in this form of accommodation. The survey also shows that over half of thesehouseholds gave ‘to be closer to employment or other essential services’ as one of the reasons formoving.The analysis of the previous location of households can be expanded to consider the sub-area withinthe City that households previously residing in Westminster lived in as well as the HousingCorporation sub-region 1 households that moved from elsewhere in London previously lived. This ispresented in the table below. The table shows a third of households that moved within Westminsterwere previously resident in the North sub-area, with almost a quarter previously living in theCentral Strip. Of the 7,572 households that moved from elsewhere in London, 42.9% previouslylive in the East sub-region and 29.9% moved from the North.Location of previous homeTable 4.11 Location of previous homeNumber% of areamoves% of allmovesCity of Westminster 10,402 100.0% 41.0%North West 1,241 11.9% 4.9%North 3,620 34.8% 14.3%Central Strip 2,447 23.5% 9.7%South Central 2,009 19.3% 7.9%South 1,085 10.4% 4.3%Elsewhere in London 7,572 100.0% 29.9%North 2,261 29.9% 8.9%East 3,248 42.9% 12.8%South East 244 3.2% 1.0%South West 783 10.3% 3.1%West 1,036 13.7% 4.1%Elsewhere in the South East 174 - 0.7%Elsewhere in the United Kingdom 2,334 - 9.2%Abroad 4,860 - 19.2%TOTAL 25,342 - 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20061 The Housing Corporation has compiled five sub-regions for London. These are the North (Barnet, Camden, Enfield,Haringey, Islington and Westminster), East (Barking, City of London, Hackney, Havering, Newham, Redbridge, TowerHamlets and Waltham Forest), South-East (Bexley, Bromley, Greenwich, Lewisham, Southwark), South-West(Croydon, Kingston-upon-Thames, Lambeth, Merton, Richmond-upon-Thames, Sutton and Wandsworth), and West(Brent, Ealing, Hammersmith & Fulham, Harrow, Hillingdon, Hounslow and Kensington & Chelsea).PAGE 43

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006The survey collected information that enables the pattern of migration of households into the Cityof Westminster to be considered over several moves. Households were asked to identify thelocation of both their previous home and the home they lived in before that. The table belowconsiders the routes of migration into Westminster from elsewhere in London. It presents the(Housing Corporation) sub-region of household’s previous home against the sub-region of theirsecond to last home for households whose previous two homes were elsewhere in London. Toensure that the sample size is sufficient it is necessary to analyse data for households that moved totheir current home in the last five years.Last homeTable 4.12 Previous homes outside WestminsterNorthEastSecond to last homeSouthEastSouthWest West TotalNorth 1,693 115 454 546 195 3,003East 1,148 81 221 387 54 1,891South East 19 18 700 29 0 766South West 23 0 139 355 55 572West 19 293 177 13 1,059 1,561TOTAL 2,902 507 1,691 1,330 1,363 7,793Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The data indicates that households previously resident in the North sub-region were likely to moveelsewhere within the North sub-region before they moved to City of Westminster. Householdspreviously resident in the West sub-region were also likely to move within the sub-region beforethey moved to the City of Westminster. The data also indicates that households previously residentin the South West were likely to move to the North sub-region before they moved into Westminster.Surprisingly a significant number of households previously resident in the North sub-region movedto the East sub-region before they moved into Westminster.It is also of interest to look at households’ past and current tenure. The table below shows thisinformation for households that moved to their current home in the last two years. The table showsthat the majority of households remained within the same tenure, however over half of householdsthat were previously owner-occupiers moved into the private rented sector. The data suggests thatjust 11.6% of newly forming households moved to owner-occupation with 81.8% moving to theprivate rented sector and the remaining 6.6% moving to the social rented sector.PAGE 44

4. Current Housing in the City of WestminsterTenureTable 4.13 Previous and current tenureOwnerocc’dSocialrentedPrevious tenurePrivaterentedNewlyformingTOTALOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 527 0 0 103 630Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 584 181 192 297 1,254Council 0 709 2,153 203 3,065RSL 0 361 608 24 993Private rented 1,296 85 15,203 2,814 19,398TOTAL 2,407 1,336 18,156 3,441 25,340Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Finally, we look at the reasons for households having moved home. The table below shows thereasons for households moving. The totals come to more than the total number of householdsmoving home as each household was able to answer as many reasons as they felt were applicable.The main reason for households moving was ‘To live closer to employment or other essentialfacilities’ followed by ‘Other’ reasons (some examples being moving to study, bereavement,hospital treatment, and health reasons). These reasons can be seen to be the local drivers forhouseholds that have moved to a new home in the City of Westminster in the last two years.PAGE 45

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Reason for movingTable 4.14 Reasons for moving home% of householdsTo live closer to employment or other essential facilities 34.1%End of tenancy agreement 18.9%To move to a different neighbourhood 9.5%Previous home lacked adequate facilities 7.0%To live independently 6.0%To move to a better environment 5.8%You were the victim of harassment 5.7%Was moved by the Local Authority 5.4%Previous home was too small 5.0%Relationship breakdown 3.8%To move to cheaper accommodation 3.6%Relatives/friends unable/unwilling to accommodate 3.4%To be in a school catchment area 3.2%Wanted to move to a larger home 2.7%To move to live with partner 2.5%Evicted/repossessed 2.4%Previous home was unsuitable for a family 2.3%To get on to the property ladder 2.0%Previous home was too big 1.3%Previous home was in poor condition 1.2%Previous home was difficult to maintain 1.1%Access problems (e.g. steps, stairs) 0.8%Wanted to move to a smaller home 0.4%Other 20.2%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20064.8 Future moves – existing householdsIn addition to looking at past moves, the survey questionnaire collected information abouthouseholds’ future needs, expectations and aspirations. This information is particularly important inthe ‘Balancing Housing Markets’ exercise carried out later in this report.The table below shows estimates of the number and proportion of households who need or expect tomove home over the next two years by tenure. The data shows that around 24.4% of householdsstate a need or likelihood of moving home over the next two years. Households living in the privaterented sector are particularly likely to be future movers.PAGE 46

4. Current Housing in the City of WestminsterTenureTable 4.15 Households who need or are likely to movein next two years by tenureNumberwhoneed/likelyto moveTotalnumber ofhouseholds%need/likelyto moveOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 300 21,667 1.4%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 3,335 27,451 12.1%Council 1,707 12,196 14.0%RSL 1,307 12,477 10.5%Private rented 20,788 38,602 53.9%TOTAL 27,437 112,395 24.4%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Again we can look at the reasons for households moving. This is shown in the table below. Thedesire to own a home is the main reason for households needing or expecting to move in the future.The most popular reason for a future move is ‘want to get on to the property ladder’. The desire tomove to a larger home is also a commonly cited reason. These reasons can be seen to be the localdrivers for existing households in the City of Westminster that intend to move to a new home in thenext two years.PAGE 47

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Reason for movingTable 4.16 Reasons for needing/being likely to move home% of householdsWant to get on to the property ladder 20.3%Current home is too small 19.6%Want to move to a larger home 18.5%To move to cheaper accommodation 15.5%To live closer to employment or other essential facilities 9.1%To move to a better environment 8.6%End of tenancy agreement 6.4%Current home is unsuitable for a family 6.1%To have a garden 5.8%Threat of eviction/repossession 5.5%To move to a different neighbourhood 4.8%To live independently 3.2%Access problems (e.g. steps, stairs) 2.2%To have a car parking space 1.2%To be in a school catchment area 1.0%Current home is too big 0.9%To receive/give care or support 0.5%Current home is in poor condition 0.5%Want to move to a smaller home 0.5%Current home is difficult to maintain 0.4%To move to live with partner 0.3%Relationship breakdown 0.3%Being moved by the Local Authority 0.2%Current home lacks adequate facilities 0.1%You are the victim of harassment 0.1%Other 30.1%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Some distinct variations are apparent if this analysis is broken down by tenure. The most popularreasons for owner-occupiers (without mortgage) needing/being likely to move is wanting a garden,wanting a better environment or because their home is too big. Owner-occupiers with a mortgage,Council tenants and RSL tenants are most commonly motivated by the need for a larger home.Private rented households predominantly give other reasons, such as the end of studies, healthreasons and to move abroad/back to country of origin. Private rented households also commonlycite the desire to get on the property ladder and the need to move to cheaper accommodation.The survey moved on to look at where households would both like and expect to move to. Theresults of this analysis are shown in the table below. The table suggests that more households wouldlike to live in the City of Westminster than would expect to do so. No households would like to livein Hackney but 10.0% would expect to live there. However, differences between preferences andexpectations outside London are small.PAGE 48

4. Current Housing in the City of WestminsterTable 4.17 Where households would like and expect to moveLocation of next home Like ExpectCity of Westminster 61.3% 47.5%Kensington & Chelsea 6.6% 0.7%Camden 2.8% 6.5%Bromley 2.2% 2.1%Tower Hamlets 1.5% 1.5%Hammersmith & Fulham 1.3% 1.3%Lewisham 1.3% 1.0%Islington 1.3% 8.0%Merton 0.7% 0.9%Lambeth 0.7% 0.1%Greenwich 0.4% 0.4%Brent 0.4% 0.0%Harrow 0.3% 0.0%Richmond Upon Thames 0.2% 0.6%Ealing 0.2% 0.0%Barnet 0.1% 0.4%Barking & Dagenham 0.1% 0.1%Kingston Upon Thames 0.1% 0.1%Hackney 0.0% 10.0%Newham 0.0% 0.0%Elsewhere in the South East 1.9% 2.0%Elsewhere in the UK 0.7% 0.7%Abroad 16.0% 16.0%TOTAL 100.0% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Households were similarly asked about what tenure they would both like and expect to move to,with the results shown below. The results suggest that around half of all households would like tomove to owner-occupation; however only 29.6% expect this type of accommodation. Morehouseholds say they expect to rent in the private sector than would like to.PAGE 49

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Table 4.18 Housing tenure aspirations and requirementsTenure Like ExpectBuy own home 48.6% 29.6%Council rented 14.7% 14.7%RSL rented 5.2% 5.2%Private rented 25.6% 46.7%Tied 5.6% 1.7%Shared ownership 0.0% 1.5%House/flatshare in the privaterented sector0.3% 0.3%TOTAL 100.0% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows a cross-tabulation between current tenure and future tenure preference. Thetable shows that generally households would like to remain in the same tenure as they currently livein. The exception to this is the private rented sector. Almost half (48.9%) of households in theprivate rented sector would like to move to owner-occupation. It should be noted that for analyticalpurposes figures for tied and house/flatshare are included in private rented whilst those for sharedownership are within owner-occupation.TenureTable 4.19 Current tenure and tenure preferenceOwneroccupiedTenure preferenceSocialrentedPrivaterentedTOTALOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 301 0 0 301Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 2,403 528 405 3,336Council 334 1,373 0 1,707RSL 138 1,169 0 1,307Private rented 10,164 2,374 8,249 20,787TOTAL 13,340 5,444 8,654 27,437Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20064.9 Future moves – potential householdsA similar analysis can be carried out for newly forming (potential) households. These arehouseholds which are currently resident within Westminster and plan to move in the next two years,and to form a household with someone not currently within the same household.The survey estimates that there are 6,086 of these households who need or are likely to move overthe next two years. The table below suggests that potential households are slightly more likely towant to remain in the area than existing households; in total 69.1% of potential households wouldlike to remain in the area. However, the number expecting to remain in the area is less.PAGE 50

4. Current Housing in the City of WestminsterTable 4.20 Where potential households wouldlike and expect to moveLocation of next home Like ExpectCity of Westminster 69.1% 44.2%Camden 5.6% 0.6%City of London 0.0% 1.1%Hackney 1.1% 3.8%Hammersmith & Fulham 1.5% 0.3%Lambeth 0.0% 1.0%Tower Hamlets 0.3% 0.1%Richmond-upon Thames 1.0% 0.5%Elsewhere in the South East 12.3% 15.1%Elsewhere in the UK 0.0% 24.3%Abroad 9.0% 9.0%TOTAL 100.0% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006In terms of tenure preferences and expectations, the table below shows some interesting results. Intotal an estimated 22.5% of potential households would like to move to owner-occupiedaccommodation, however, only 8.5% expect to secure such accommodation. Almost a third ofpotential households wish to move to private rented accommodation but a greater proportion expectto move there.Table 4.21 Housing tenure aspirations andexpectations – potential householdsTenure Like ExpectBuy own home 22.5% 8.5%Council 26.0% 15.6%RSL 0.8% 13.8%Private rented 30.5% 41.8%Tied-linked to a job 2.1% 2.1%Shared Ownership 0.3% 0.3%House/flat share 0.5% 0.5%Other 17.4% 17.4%TOTAL 100.0% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 51

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 20064.10 SummaryThe household survey collected a significant amount of data about households’ currentcircumstances. Some of the main findings were:• Almost 90% of households in the City of Westminster live in a flat and households living inrented housing are most likely to live in flats.• Just under a fifth of all households are ‘pensioner-only’ and 16.2% contain children. Nonpensionerhouseholds that do not contain children dominate the private rented sector.• Car ownership data suggests that there is an average of 0.55 cars per household in the City.There are large differences by tenure with owner-occupiers (with mortgage) having anaverage of 0.88 cars per household whilst Council tenants have an average of 0.24 cars perhousehold. Over two-thirds of all households in social rented accommodation have no use ofa car or van.• Around a quarter of workers work in the City of Westminster area. The average journey towork time of all heads of households in employment is 21 minutes.• Around 22% of households have lived in their current home for less than two years; with41.0% of moves occurring within the City.• Households moving from abroad are much more likely to be living in private rentedaccommodation, with 96.5% living in this form of accommodation. The survey also showsthat over half of households moving from abroad moved to be closer to employment or otheressential services.• In terms of future household moves, the survey estimates that 27,437 existing and 6,086potential households need or expect to move within the next two years. In both cases ahigher proportion would like to move to owner-occupation than expect to do so.PAGE 52

5. The local housing market5. The local housing market5.1 IntroductionThis chapter sets out the results of an analysis of housing market prices and rents in Westminster.Information was collected from two sources:• Land Registry• Survey of local estate and letting agentsThe analysis provides a context for the property price situation in Westminster and then a sequenceof analyses based on information collected from estate/letting agents. This leads to figures thatshow the minimum price/rent of housing for a range of dwelling sizes.5.2 National, regional and local pictureInformation from the Land Registry shows that between the 4 th Quarter of 2000 and the 4th quarterof 2005 average property prices in England and Wales rose by 79.7%. For London the increase was47.7% whilst for the City of Westminster the figure was 45.2%.The table below shows average prices in the 4th quarter of 2005 for each of England and Wales,London and the City of Westminster. The table shows that average prices in Westminster are overthree times the average for England, and over twice the London average.Table 5.1 Land Registry average prices (4th quarter 2005)Area Average price As % of E & WEngland & Wales £191,327 100.0%London £289,247 151.2%Westminster £590,661 308.7%Source: HM Land Registry, property price data, 2006PAGE 53

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure 5.1 Land Registry price changes 2000–2005 (4th quarters)£700,000£600,000£500,000England & WalesLondonWestminsterAverage price£400,000£300,000£200,000£100,000£02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005YearSource: HM Land Registry, property price data, 2006The table below shows average property prices for the City for each dwelling type (from LandRegistry data). This data is compared with regional price information. The volume of sales by typeis also included for both areas.Dwelling typeTable 5.2 Land Registry average prices and sales (4th quarter 2005)City of WestminsterLondonAverage price % of sales Average price % of salesDetached £1,761,000 0.5% £564,566 4.1%Semi-detached £2,281,363 1.0% £325,732 16.2%Terraced £1,085,436 8.8% £299,584 31.3%Flat/maisonette £516,384 89.7% £246,964 48.4%All dwellings £590,661 100.0% £289,247 100.0%Source: HM Land Registry, property price data, 2006The largest volume of sales in the City was for flats (89.7%) with an average price of £516,384. Theprice of all property types in Westminster are significantly above the average for London. Salesregionally show a higher proportion of houses.PAGE 54

5. The local housing market5.3 Prices in adjoining areasAs the table below demonstrates, all of the local authorities around Westminster have prices wellabove the average for England and Wales. When compared with neighbouring Local Authorityareas Westminster shows an average price at the top end of the scale. Prices in Westminster arelower than in Kensington & Chelsea but higher than all other neighbouring London Boroughs.Brent displays the lowest average price in the area.Table 5.3 Price levels in Westminster andadjoining areas (4th quarter 2005)Council area% of England & WalesKensington & Chelsea 393.4%Westminster 308.7%Camden 222.0%Wandsworth 177.5%City of London 171.6%Southwark 145.6%Lambeth 143.8%Brent 141.5%Source: HM Land Registry, property price data, 20065.4 Estate Agents’ information(i) Purchase pricesDuring April 2006 a total of 11 estate and letting agencies were contacted in order to obtain detailedinformation about the local housing market across the Westminster area. Agents were contactedacross the City in order to capture localised variations.Average and minimum property prices were collected for a range of property sizes and tenures.Comments were also collected from the agents to describe the main features of the current market inWestminster, a summary of which is presented below.Agents tended to describe property sales levels in the City of Westminster as reasonably steady. Itwas felt that there was a shortage of properties across the market, and therefore demand isoutstripping supply. Clear geographical distinctions were apparent during the estate agentinterviews, with property prices in the West End (W1) and in the Mayfair and Belgravia (SW1)areas being considerably higher than other areas and property prices in the North West areas of theCity (W9 and W10) being notably lower. The prices quoted in this report are those from the cheaperareas of the City, namely Harrow Road and Queen’s Park.PAGE 55

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006If we take averages of the prices identified by individual agents for each dwelling size and pricelevel, the property price results are as presented in the figure below. The figure shows that estimatedentry-level prices ranged from £198,000 for a one-bedroom property up to £482,500 for fourbedrooms. Average prices were generally around 30-60% higher than the minimums.Figure 5.2 Minimum & average property prices inWestminster (W9 & W10 only) (as of April 2006)£800,000£767,500£700,000£600,000£500,000MinimumAverage£516,500£482,500£400,000£367,000£370,500£300,000£200,000£258,000£198,000£275,000£100,000£01 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 BedroomSource: Survey of Estate and Lettings Agents (2006)(ii) Private rent levelsAverage and minimum rents were also collected from agents and the results of this analysis areshown in table 5.4. Minimum monthly rents varied from £890 (one bed) to £2,617 (four beds) withaverage rents only around 20-40% more expensive than this.Table 5.4 Minimum and average private rents in Westminster(W9 & W10 only)Property sizeMinimum rent(monthly)Average rent(monthly)1 bedroom £890 £1,1202 bedrooms £1,290 £1,5703 bedrooms £1,785 £2,2704 bedrooms £2,617 £3,665Source: Survey of Estate and Lettings Agents (2006)PAGE 56

5. The local housing market(iii) New build pricesEstate agents commented that there are few new build developments in the area, and so getting anew build property on their books was very rare. In particular, there are very few four bedroom newbuild properties so these prices have been estimated using experience and knowledge FordhamResearch has gained by conducting many housing needs assessments.Table 5.5 Average new build pricesin WestminsterProperty size Average price1 bedroom 425,0002 bedrooms 510,0003 bedrooms 650,0004 bedrooms 825,000Source: Survey of Estate and Lettings agents (2006)5.5 Appropriate price level for the affordability testHaving established minimum and average prices in each of the four size categories it is necessary todecide what price level is the most appropriate to use for assessing whether or not a household isable to access the housing market. It is necessary to consider two aspects:• The appropriate measure of price (e.g. minimum or average prices/costs)• How to deal with a situation where price variations have been identified within the CouncilareaOn the first point, we use the minimum prices collected in the estate agents survey, since these havebeen designed to represent the ‘entry level’ into the housing market. For consistency we will alsouse minimum private rental costs as part of the affordability test.ODPMGuide‘The most commonly used affordability test involves comparing estimated incomesof unsuitably housed households against ‘entry level’ house prices.’ [Section 4.3(page 57)]‘…approaches which compare maximum prices payable against average houseprices are certainly questionable.’ [Section 4.3 (page 57)]PAGE 57

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006A key issue in deciding the appropriate price assumptions to use in assessing overall City-wideaffordability is whether a household that could afford market priced housing by moving areasonable distance should be assessed as being in housing need. In this case the term ‘reasonabledistance’ is taken to mean ‘within the City of Westminster boundary’ and it is recognised that somehouseholds would therefore need to move from their current locality to afford private sectorhousing.5.6 SummaryAn analysis of the local housing market is a crucial step in any housing study. In this reportinformation was drawn from both the Land Registry and local estate/letting agents to provide thecontext for local property prices/rents. Some of the main findings of the analysis are:• Average prices in Westminster rose by 45.2% in the period 2000 to 2005. This is below therate of increase observed regionally and nationally.• The average property price in Westminster in the 4th quarter 2005 was well above theaverage figure for London.• Sales of properties in Westminster are predominantly flats with only 10.3% of sales in the4th quarter of 2005 being houses.• The estate agent survey suggested that minimum prices ranged from £198,000 for a onebedroom property rising to £482,500 for a four bedroom property.• Minimum rents ranged from £890 to £2,617 per month depending on size.• The Harrow Road and Queen’s Park (W9 & W10) areas are significantly cheaper than otherparts of the City, therefore the prices in this area will be applied to households in all parts ofthe City when it comes to testing affordability.PAGE 58

6. Financial information and affordability6. Financial information and affordability6.1 IntroductionThe previous chapter studied the local housing market. The results from that chapter are broughttogether with household financial information to make an assessment of affordability for eachindividual household. The issue of affordability is crucial in assessing both backlog and newlyarising need in the Council area. It should be noted that student households have been excludedfrom the analysis in this chapter as they do not contribute to the need for affordable housing.Having set out the financial information collected in the survey the section continues byconcentrating on the methodology behind the assessment of affordability.ODPMGuide‘An accurate estimate of household income is one of the most important pieces ofinformation that has to be obtained from a housing needs survey’. [Section 3.6(page 39)]To complete an accurate assessment of affordability, the survey collected information regardinghouseholds’ gross earned income (including benefits), savings and equity levels.6.2 Household incomeThe response to the survey income question was good with 74.3% of respondents answering thisquestion. Survey results for household income in the City of Westminster estimate the averagegross income level (crucial for the assessment of affordability) to be £45,587 per annum. Themedian income is noticeably lower than the mean (at £26,901 per annum). The figure below showsthe distribution of income.As stated above students have been removed from this analysis, however the average income ofstudent households in the City is £2,460.PAGE 59

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure 6.1 Distribution of annual gross household income(including non-housing benefits)30%25%22.1%25.7%20%18.7%15%12.9%11.6%10%5%2.6%6.3%0%up to £10k £10k-£20k £20k-£30k £30k-£40k £40k-£50k £50k-£60k £60k+Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20066.3 Household Savings and EquityThe average household has £19,144 in savings (median of £3,827). The figure below shows thedistribution of savings in the City.Over a third of households had no savings at all whilst 6.1% had savings of over £40,000.Households with no savings also include those in debt.Figure 6.2 Household savings40%35%34.3%30%25%20%15%20.9%18.4%16.3%10%5%3.9%6.1%0%NosavingsUnder £5k £5k - £10k £10k -£20k£20k -£40kOver £40kSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 60

6. Financial information and affordabilityThe survey also collected information about the amount of equity owner-occupiers have in theirproperty. For both owner-occupier groups together (with and without mortgages) the averageamount of equity was estimated to be £266,282 (median of £117,119).6.4 Household characteristics and incomeThe table below shows average income, savings and equity by tenure. As might be expected, thehouseholds with the lowest average incomes (and savings) are those in the social rented sector.Whilst owner-occupiers with no mortgage have an average household income considerably lowerthan those with a mortgage, this group contains many older people who are not working but haveredeemed their mortgages. These households therefore have much higher levels of savings andequity.TenureTable 6.1 Financial information by tenureAverageannual grosshouseholdincomeAveragesavingsAverageequityOwner-occupied (no mortgage) £41,584 £46,204 £417,801Owner-occupied (with mortgage) £72,974 £17,815 £146,685Council £13,656 £1,128 -RSL £23,528 £4,721 -Private rented £45,578 £14,900 -AVERAGE £45,587 £19,144 £266,282Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The figure below looks at income levels by household type and sub-area. Single pensioner and loneparent households show average incomes considerably below the City average. Households withtwo or more adults and children show average incomes above the City average. By sub-area, it isclear that significant differences exist. The highest average incomes are found in South Central andthe lowest average incomes in the North West.PAGE 61

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure 6.3 Income and household type and sub-areaSingle pensioner£17,9712 or more pensioners£40,241Single non-pensioner2 or more adults - no children£50,475£48,395Lone parent£23,9132 or more adults & 1 child2 or more adults & 2 or more children£59,941£63,571North West£35,612NorthCentral StripSouth CentralSouthAnnual gross household income(including non-housing benefits)£46,261£50,096£55,653£40,747£0 £10,000 £20,000 £30,000 £40,000 £50,000 £60,000 £70,000Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20066.5 Assessing affordability – existing householdsAll households were tested for their ability to afford either a mortgage or private rented housing inthe local area. These two measures were then combined to estimate households unable to affordeither form of private sector housing. The general methodology and results are presented below.(i) Mortgage affordabilityThe definition of mortgage affordability is shown below:Mortgage affordability: A household containing one person in employment is eligible for a mortgage ifthe gross household income multiplied by 3.5 is greater than the cost of the mortgage requirement. Ahousehold containing more than one person in employment is eligible for a mortgage if the grosshousehold income multiplied by 2.9 is greater than the cost of the mortgage requirement.PAGE 62

6. Financial information and affordabilityThe mortgage requirement is based on taking the level of savings and any equity away from theestimated property price and then checking the income level of the household in relation to thelikely amount of mortgage remaining. Income from housing related benefits is not included in theaffordability calculation. A worked example of the mortgage affordability test is shown below:A household containing a couple with one child would require, at minimum, a two bedroom property. Theminimum cost of such a property in the City of Westminster is estimated to be £275,000. If the couplehave £20,000 in savings then they would require a gross household income of £87,931 ((£275,000-£20,000) divided by 2.9) if both adults were in employment, or £72,857 ((£275,000-£20,000) divided by3.5) if one person is in employment.ODPMGuide‘A household is considered likely to be able to afford to buy a home that costs 3.5times the gross household income for a single earner household, or 2.9 times thehousehold income for dual income households.’ [Paragraph 6.17 March 2005Discussion Draft Guidance](ii) Private rental affordabilityThe definition of private rental affordability is shown below:Private rental affordability: A household is unable to afford private rented housing if renting privatelywould take up more than 25% of its gross household income (excluding housing benefits).A worked example of the rental affordability test is shown below:A household containing a couple with no children will require at minimum a one bedroom property. Theminimum weekly rental for this is £205. This means that the household must have a weekly gross incomeof at least £820 (£205 ÷ 0.25) to be able to afford the property.(iii) Combined affordabilityIt is important to assess the numbers who cannot afford either of the above options. This is themeasure of combined affordability, which is defined below:PAGE 63

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Combined affordability:A household containing one person in employment is not eligible for a mortgage if the gross householdincome multiplied by 3.5 is less than the cost of the mortgage requirement. A household containing morethan one person in employment is not eligible for a mortgage if the gross household income multiplied by2.9 is less than the cost of the mortgage requirement.ANDA household is unable to afford private sector housing if renting privately would take up more than 25% ofits gross household income.This combined affordability measure will be used to assess affordability in the Basic NeedsAssessment Model. It is worth briefly noting the affordability of local households. The table belowshows affordability by tenure. The table shows that of all households in the City, 51.4% are unableto afford market housing (if they were to move home now). The differences by tenure aresubstantial. In total 92.4% of social and 68.5% of private tenants are unable to afford. These figurescompare with 18.3% of all owner-occupiers.TenureTable 6.2 Affordability and tenureUnable toaffordmarkethousingAffordabilityNumber ofh’holds% of h’holdsunable toaffordOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 4,101 21,668 18.9%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 4,875 27,451 17.8%Council 11,950 12,197 98.0%RSL 10,931 12,477 87.6%Private rented 24,237 35,387 68.5%TOTAL 56,094 109,180 51.4%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows the tenure expectations of households that need or are likely to move homewithin the next five years that expect to move elsewhere in Westminster in comparison to what theaffordability measure indicates they will be able to afford. The table indicates that some 78.4% ofhouseholds that would like to buy a home in Westminster in the next five years will be able to doso, whilst only 37.0% of households that expect to move to a private rented home will be able toafford this tenure. The table also indicates that some 12.3% of households that expect a socialrented property are able to afford some form of market housing.PAGE 64

6. Financial information and affordabilityExpected tenureTable 6.3 Affordability and expected tenureAfford owneroccupationAfford privaterentAffordabilityUnable toafford markethousingTotalOwner-occupied 2,541 233 466 3,240Private rented 228 2,043 3,868 6,139Social rented 43 502 3,897 4,442TOTAL 2,812 2,778 8,231 13,821Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20066.6 Assessing affordability – potential householdsThe Housing Needs Assessment ascertained whether or not potential households (namely personswho currently live as part of another household and commented on further in the following chapter)would be able to access the private sector housing market by asking the following question to thesurvey respondent:‘In your opinion, will they be able to afford suitable private sector housing in the City ofWestminster area (this can either be rented (excluding the use of housing benefit) orbought?’This would appear to be broadly in line with ODPM guidance which says:ODPMGuide‘It is difficult to estimate the incomes of future newly forming households. Unlesspotential household members are interviewed specifically, it is not practical tocollect complete income data relating to this group through a housing needssurvey. Even where the fieldwork includes concealed household interviews, thereare doubts as to the value and reliability of any income data which might becollected.’ [Section 4.4 (page 62)]‘One way around this problem is to substitute a subjective judgement about futurehousing prospects in place of a formal affordability test.’ [Section 4.4 (page 60)]It should be noted that this approach is used when assessing the ability of potential households toafford market housing in the balancing housing markets assessment in Chapter 12. Future estimatesof the needs from household formation are based on past trend information – an approach in linewith the ODPM guide.PAGE 65

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 20066.7 SummaryThe collection of financial information is a fundamental part of any assessment of housing need.The survey estimates that mean annual gross household income (including non-housing benefits) inthe City of Westminster is £45,587. The average conceals wide variations among different tenuregroups with households in social rented housing showing average incomes significantly below theCity average.Having collected detailed information on the local housing market and the financial situation ofhouseholds it is important to use appropriate affordability measures to assess their ability to affordmarket priced housing in City of Westminster. A combined affordability test is used to assesswhether they can afford to either buy or rent a property of a suitable size.PAGE 66

SECTION C: THE GUIDE MODELSECTION C: THE GUIDE MODELThis section sets out calculation of the three key elements of the model outlined in Table 2.1 of theODPM Guide to Housing Needs Assessment and described in detail in Chapter Four of the Guide.The aim is to assess the level of housing need through estimating the net shortfall/surplus ofaffordable housing. The first step measures backlog of existing need, the second newly arising needand the third looks at current supply of affordable housing. The section finishes with a briefdiscussion of the implications for affordable housing policy and about the types of housing thatmight meet the affordable need.The ODPM Guide definition of housing need is given below.ODPMGuide‘Housing need refers to households lacking their own housing or living in housingwhich is inadequate or unsuitable, who are unlikely to be able to meet their needsin the housing market without some assistance’. [Section A2.2 (page 116)]It is important to note that in this section that deals with the Basic Needs Assessment Model,student households have been excluded from analysis.PAGE 67


7. Backlog of existing need7. Backlog of existing need7.1 IntroductionThis chapter of the report assesses the first part of the ‘Basic Needs Assessment Model’ – Backlogof Existing Need. This begins with an assessment of housing suitability and affordability and alsoconsiders backlog of homeless households before arriving at a total backlog need estimate.7.2 Unsuitable housingThis section looks at households whose current accommodation is in some way unsuitable for theirrequirements. It is estimated that a total of 11,390 households are living in unsuitable housing. Thisrepresents 10.4% of all households in the City of Westminster.The figure below shows a summary of the numbers of households living in unsuitable housing(ordered by the number of households in each category). The main reason for unsuitable housing isovercrowding followed by home disrepair. All of the categories other then overcrowding arecalculated directly from a response to a survey question. Overcrowding is calculated frominformation about household composition, accommodation size and a derived minimum bedroomrequirement.PAGE 69

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure 7.1 Summary of unsuitable housing categoriesOvercrowded*Subject to major disrepair orunfitness2,7052,631Accommodation tooexpensive2,298Mobility and/or healthproblemsHarassment1,5771,776End of tenancy/ in temporaryaccommodation860Difficulty maintaining homeLacking kitchen, bathroom orWC367478Sharing kitchen, bathroom orWC00 500 1,000 Households 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows unsuitable housing by tenure. The patterns emerging suggest that Councilresidents and owner-occupiers (with a mortgage) are more likely to be in unsuitable housing. Some15.2% of Council tenants and 15.1% of owner-occupiers (with a mortgage) are estimated to beliving in unsuitable housing, this compares with 5.5% of owner-occupiers (with no mortgage) and5.8% of RSL tenants.TenureTable 7.1 Unsuitable housing and tenureInunsuitablehousingNot inunsuitablehousingUnsuitable housingNumberof h’holdsin City% of totalh’holds inunsuitablehousing% ofthose inunsuitablehousingOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 1,201 20,467 21,668 5.5% 10.5%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 4,154 23,297 27,451 15.1% 36.5%Council 1,857 10,340 12,197 15.2% 16.3%RSL 724 11,753 12,477 5.8% 6.4%Private rented 3,453 31,933 35,386 9.8% 30.3%TOTAL 11,390 97,790 109,180 10.4% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 70

7. Backlog of existing needThe table below shows the unsuitable housing categories by tenure. The table indicates that 42.7%of overcrowded households are resident in private rented accommodation. The table also indicatesthat households suffering from harassment are particularly likely to be living in rentedaccommodation. Finally the table also shows that some 46.3% of households with mobility/healthproblems are owner-occupiers.Unsuitable housingcategoriesTable 7.2 Unsuitable housing categories and tenureTenureOwneroccupied(nomortgage)Owneroccupied(withmortgage)CouncilRSLPrivaterentedTOTALTenancy ending/temporaryaccommodation0 0 0 0 860 860Accommodation too expensive 0 1,188 0 0 1,110 2,298Over-crowding 93 863 508 85 1,156 2,705Difficulty maintaining home 232 228 10 7 0 478Spec needs/mobility etc 427 520 290 444 94 1,776Lacking facilities 18 292 0 0 57 367Disrepair 209 590 978 18 835 2,631Harassment 113 121 600 257 486 1,577* The sample of households in all of these categories of unsuitable housing is small so the results of the tenure profile shouldbe treated with cautionSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The figure below shows the proportion of households living in unsuitable housing by householdtype and sub-area. The data shows that lone parent households are particularly likely to be inunsuitable housing. Households containing two adults and no children and households containingtwo adults and at least two children showed the lowest levels of unsuitable housing. By sub-areathere are also some significant differences. Levels of unsuitable housing vary from 17.7% in theNorth to 2.1% in South Central.PAGE 71

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure 7.2 Unsuitable housing and household characteristicsSingle pensioner2 or more pensionersSingle non-pensioner2 or more adults - nochildren11.2%13.0%9.9%6.2%Lone parent52.0%2 or more adults & 1child2 or more adults & 2 ormore children6.7%17.3%North WestNorth13.3%17.7%Central Strip10.9%South CentralSouth2.1%6.8%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%% in unsuitable housingSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006In addition to the above analysis it is possible to compare survey figures with the Housing Register.Survey responses indicated that there were 7,707 existing households on the Housing Register at thetime of the survey (there will be additional potential households and those living outside the City).Of these it was estimated that 18.1% (1,392 households) were in unsuitable housing. This compareswith 9.8% of those who were not registered. The data did however suggest that 87.8% of those inunsuitable housing were not registered.These results suggest that whilst those registered are more likely to have housing problems thanother households there are a significant number of households who are registered but not (under thedefinitions used here) in unsuitable housing and also a significant number in unsuitable housingwho are not registered. This highlights the difficulties in using Housing Registers as an indicator ofoverall needs.PAGE 72

7. Backlog of existing need7.3 Migration and ‘in-situ’ solutionsThe survey has highlighted that 11,390 households are in unsuitable housing. However it is mostprobable that some of the unsuitability can be resolved in the households’ current accommodationand also that some households would prefer to move from the City in order to resolve their housingproblems.The extent to which ‘in-situ’ solutions might be appropriate is assessed in the Housing NeedsAssessment by asking respondents whether they thought they needed to move now. Any householdthat replied that it did need to move now was assumed not to have an in situ solution.ODPMGuide‘The extent to which in situ solutions could be feasible can be examined by asurvey…[using]…a judgement on whether the unsuitably housed main householdintends to move. Where this is the case, it may be taken to indicate that an in situsolution is not appropriate’. [Section 4.3 (page 56)]The survey data estimates that of the 11,390 households in unsuitable housing, 1,876 (or 16.5%)would need to move now to resolve their housing problems. Of the 1,876 households who need tomove now, those that stated that they would be likely to move out of the City were excluded fromfurther analysis. These amounted to 62 leaving a total of 1,814 who need to move within the City.7.4 AffordabilityUsing the affordability methodology set out in Chapter Six it is estimated that there are 1,488existing households that cannot afford market housing and are living in unsuitable housing (andrequire a move to different accommodation within the City). This represents 1.4% of all existinghouseholds in the City. The results reveal that 82.0% of households living in unsuitable housing(and needing to move now within the City) cannot afford market housing (1,488/1,876).The table below shows the tenure of the 1,488 households currently estimated to be in housingneed. The results show that Council and RSL tenants are most likely to be in housing need (3.7%and 3.6% respectively). Of all households in need, 60.6% currently live in social rentedaccommodation.PAGE 73

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006TenureTable 7.3 Housing need and tenureIn needNot inneedHousing needNumberof h’holdsin City% of totalh’holds inneed% ofthose inneedOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 0 21,668 21,668 0.0% 0.0%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 0 27,451 27,451 0.0% 0.0%Council 451 11,745 12,197 3.7% 30.4%RSL 450 12,027 12,477 3.6% 30.2%Private rented 587 34,800 35,387 1.7% 39.4%TOTAL 1,488 107,692 109,180 1.4% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 20067.5 Housing need and the need for affordable housingThere is a further issue relating to existing households in need. For households in social rentedaccommodation it is likely that a move will release a social rented home for re-letting and thereforethere will be no requirement for additional affordable housing to be provided. It has been decided toremove all households in need currently living in social rented accommodation from the estimatesof additional requirement. This reduces the backlog figure by 901 households to 587. This followsfrom advice in the ODPM Guide:ODPMGuide‘Where existing households are living in unsuitable housing, it is important to try toassess which of these could find solutions in situ or by moving within their currenttenure’. [Section 4, Agenda for Action (page 68)]The draft Housing Needs Assessment guidance published by the ODPM in 2005 goes further thanthis and adds a stage to the Basic Needs Assessment Model ‘minus current occupiers of affordablehousing in need’. It is clear therefore that the removal of the 902 households in social rentedaccommodation is justified by current and future guidance.7.6 Homeless households (backlog households)The Housing Needs Assessment is a ‘snapshot’ survey that assesses housing need at a particularpoint in time. There will, in addition to the existing households in need, be some homelesshouseholds who were in need at the time of the survey and should also be included within anyassessment of backlog need. To assess these numbers we have used information contained in theCouncil’s P1(E) Homeless returns.PAGE 74

7. Backlog of existing needThe main source of information used is Section E6: Homeless households accommodated by yourauthority at the end of the quarter. The important point about this information is the noteunderneath. “This should be a ‘snapshot’ of the numbers in accommodation on the last day of thequarter, not the numbers taking up accommodation during the quarter.” This is important given thesnapshot nature of the survey. Data compiled from the December 2005 P1(E) form is shown in thetable below.Table 7.4 Homeless households accommodated by authority at December 2005 (SectionE6, P1(E) form)Category Quarter ending 30/12/05In Westminster Elsewhere TOTALBed and breakfast* 376 376Other nightly paid* 30 30Hostel* 27 27Private sector accommodation leased by authority 910 528 1,438Private sector accommodation leased by RSLs 809 153 962Directly with a private sector landlord 178 27 205Within Council’s own stock 0 0 0RSL stock on assured shorthold tenancies 77 0 77Other 0 0 0TOTAL 2,407 708 3,115*Location not confirmedSource: Westminster Borough Council P1 (E) December 2005Not all of the categories in the above table are added to our assessment of existing and potentialhouseholds in need. This is because, in theory, they will be part of our sample for the HousingNeeds Assessment. For example, households housed in private sector accommodation shouldalready be included as part of the housing need – such household addresses should appear on theCouncil Tax file from which the sample was drawn.It is important to note, however, that as Westminster is a uniquely pressured area homelesshouseholds are often moved into accommodation outside the City. These households would not beincluded in the council tax register used to draw the survey sample. It is therefore appropriate toinclude homeless households that have been placed in private sector housing outside Westminster.After considering the various categories, we have decided there are six which should be included aspart of the homeless element. These have been underlined in the table above. Therefore, of the3,115 homeless households in temporary accommodation, 1,141 will be counted as homeless for thepurpose of the Housing Needs Assessment.PAGE 75

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 20067.7 Total backlog needHaving been through a number of detailed stages in order to assess the backlog of need in the Cityof Westminster we shall now bring together all pieces of data to complete the ‘B: BACKLOG OFEXISTING NEED’ element of the Basic Needs Assessment model encouraged by the ODPM. Thisis shown in the following section.The table below summarises the first stage of the overall assessment of housing need as set out bythe ODPM. The data shows that there is an estimated backlog of 1,728 households in need (seestage 5). The final stage is to include a quota to progressively reduce this backlog. A reduction inthe backlog of need of 20% per year has been assumed in the City of Westminster. The tabletherefore shows that the annual need to reduce backlog is 346 dwellings per annum.ODPMGuide‘It is also unrealistic to expect to meet all of any backlog in the planning period. It isrecommended that all authorities apply a standard factor of 20% here forcomparability (this implies eliminating the backlog over a 5 year strategy period).LA’s may then make policy judgements to determine the practical rate at which thisbacklog can be reduced’. [Section 2.4 (page 25)]Table 7.5 Basic Needs Assessment Model – Stages 1 to 7B: BACKLOG OF EXISTING NEEDElement Notes Final number1. Backlog need existinghouseholds2. minus cases where in-situsolution most appropriate3. times proportion unable to affordto buy or rent in marketNumber of households currentlyliving in unsuitable housingIn situ (or outside the City) solutionmost appropriate for 9,576households82.0% = 1,488 – also remove 901social renting tenants11,390Leaves 1,8144. plus Backlog (non-households) Homeless = 1,141 1,1415. equals total Backlog need 1,7286. times quota to progressivelyreduce backlog587Suggest 20% as in ODPM report 20%7. equals annual need to reduce346BacklogNB Elimination of the backlog over a five-year period is recommended in the Guide. However,the Council can make a policy decision to do so over a longer period.Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 76

7. Backlog of existing need7.8 SummaryThis chapter reported on the components contributing to the backlog need element of the needsassessment model. In total it is estimated that 11,390 existing households are in housing need.When looking further forward to the additional affordable housing requirements of thesehouseholds we remove households currently living in social rented housing to produce a final figureof 587.The final element of backlog need considered the needs arising from homeless households. Thiselement made for 1,141 additional households in need.Bringing together all the factors of the backlog of housing need (as defined by the ODPM andfollowed by Fordham Research) it is estimated that there is an overall backlog of need of 1,728affordable homes. Annualised, assuming a 20% reduction per year suggests an annual need of 346dwellings to reduce the backlog need in the City of Westminster.PAGE 77


8. Newly arising need8. Newly arising need8.1 IntroductionIn addition to the Backlog of existing needs discussed so far in this report there will be newlyarising need. This is split, as per ODPM guidance, into three main categories (there is a fourth ‘exinstitutional’population – results for this group have been included in the figures for new householdformation). These are as follows:1. New households formation (× proportion unable to buy or rent in market)2. Existing households falling into need3. In-migrant households unable to afford market housingThe guidance also suggests that each of these should be calculated on an annual basis. Thefollowing sections deal with each of these points in detail.8.2 New household formationThe estimate of the number of newly forming households in need of affordable housing is based onan assessment of households that have formed over the past two years. Such an approach ispreferred to studying households stating likely future intentions as it provides more detailedinformation on the characteristics of these households contributing to this element of newly arisingneed. This method is also consistent with comments in ODPM Guidance:‘A… reliable approach to this issue is to base the profile of new households on thecharacteristics of identified newly forming households in the recent past’.ODPMGuide‘Stage 9 in the basic needs assessment model… involves estimating the proportionof newly forming households who will be unable to afford to access housing in theprivate market’.‘It is recommended that the primary basis for assessing the income and householdtype profile of new households is the profile of actual new households formed overthe period preceding the survey’. [Section 4.4 (pages 61 & 62)]The table below shows details of the derivation of new household formation. The table begins byestablishing the number of newly forming households over the past two years (from within theCity). The data excludes households moving to owner-occupation because these households at thetime of the move (which is when we are interested in) could afford market housing. Households intied accommodation have also been excluded. An affordability test is then applied to the remaininghouseholds.PAGE 79

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Table 8.1 Derivation of newly arising need from new household formationAspect of calculation Number Sub-totalNumber of households moving in past two years 22,126Minus moves from outside City -13,103 9,023Minus households NOT forming in previous move -8,677 346Minus households moving to owner-occupation -280 66Minus households moving to tied accommodation -0 66TOTAL APPLICABLE MOVES 66Times proportion unable to afford 100.0%ESTIMATE OF NEWLY ARISING NEED 66ANNUAL ESTIMATE OF NEWLY ARISING NEED 33Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table above shows that an estimated 66 households are newly formed (previously lived withparents, relatives or friends) within the City over the past two years (33 per annum). Of these it isestimated that all 66 (per annum) are unable to afford market housing without some form of subsidy(as with the main analysis of existing households in need the affordability test is based on the sizerequirements and financial situation of those households having made a ‘potentially in need’ moveover the past two years). The annual estimate of the number of newly forming households fallinginto need is therefore 33.The figure is low as the majority of households that formed in the City over the last two yearsmoved from outside the City and are not therefore included in this segment of newly arising need. Italso reflects that many newly-forming households are aware that the City of Westminster is aparticularly pressurised housing market so do not attempt to get a home there.8.3 Ex-institutional population moving into the communityThe analysis of the ex-institutional population moving into the community is an assessment of thenumber of households moving from ‘institutional’ or temporary accommodation. Information fromWestminster Council suggests that each year the council must find homes for 52 persons moving onfrom institutions within the City.PAGE 80

8. Newly arising need8.4 Existing households falling into needThis is an estimate of the number of existing households currently living in the City of Westminsterwho will fall into housing need over the next two years (and then annualised). The basicinformation for this is households who have moved home within the City in the last two years andaffordability. A household will fall into need if it has to move home and is unable to afford to dothis within the private sector (examples of such a move will be because of the end of a tenancyagreement). A household unable to afford market rent prices but moving to private rentedaccommodation may have to either claim housing benefit or spend more than a quarter of theirgross income on housing, which is considered unaffordable (or indeed a combination of both).ODPMGuide‘The basic needs model also identifies two other ways [the second is the nextsection] in which new needs may arise in a locality. The first of these refers toexisting households, previously satisfactorily housed, who fall into need during theperiod (per year, conventionally)’. [Section 4.4 (page 63)]Households previously living with parents, relatives or friends are excluded as these will doublecountwith the newly forming households already considered in the previous table. The data alsoexcludes moves between social rented properties. Households falling into need in the social rentedsector have their needs met through a transfer to another social rented property, hence releasing asocial rented property for someone else in need. The number of households falling into need in thesocial rented sector should therefore, over a period of time, roughly equal the supply of ‘transfers’and so the additional needs arising from within the social rented stock will be net zero. The dataagain excludes households moving to owner-occupation because these households at the time of themove (which is when we are interested in) could afford market housing whilst households movingto tied accommodation are also excluded.Table 8.2 Derivation of Newly Arising Need from households currentlyliving in the CityAspect of calculation Number Sub-totalNumber of households moving in past two years 22,126Minus moves from outside City -13,103 9,023Minus households forming in previous move -346 8,677Minus households transferring within affordable housing -134 8,543Minus households moving to owner-occupation -2,931 5,612Minus households moving to tied accommodation -50 5,562TOTAL APPLICABLE MOVES 5,562Times proportion unable to afford 72.4%TOTAL IN NEED (2 years) 4,025ANNUAL ESTIMATE OF NEWLY ARISING NEED 2,013Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 81

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006The table above shows that a total of 5,562 household moves are considered as potentially in need.Using the standard affordability test for existing households it is estimated that 72.4% of thesehouseholds cannot afford market housing (as with the main analysis of existing households in needthe affordability test is based on the size requirements and financial situation of those householdshaving made a ‘potentially in need’ move over the past two years). Therefore our estimate of thenumber of households falling into need within the City excluding transfers is 4,025 households(5,562 × 0.724) over the two-year period. Annualised this is 2,013 households per annum.8.5 In-migrant households unable to afford market housingThis is the final element of newly arising need. Households falling into need in this group arehouseholds currently living outside the City of Westminster who are expected to move into the Citybut cannot afford suitable private sector housing. The basic information for this is similar to theabove section except that it deals with households who are expected to move home to the City in thenext two years (based on past move information) and these households’ affordability.This data does not exclude transfers as none of these households could have transferred withinaffordable housing stock in the City at the time of the move. Household formation is not an issue asnone of these households could be double-counted because they do not currently live within theCity. Household moving to owner-occupation and tied accommodation are again excluded from theanalysis.ODPMGuide‘Households moving into the City and requiring affordable housing can be identifiedby HN surveys, again using data on recent movers’. [Section 4.4 (page 63)]The table below shows the derivation of the in-migrant element of newly arising need.Table 8.3 Derivation of Newly Arising Need from households currentlyliving outside the CityAspect of calculation Number Sub-totalNumber of households moving in past two years 22,126Minus moves from within City 9,023 13,103Minus households moving to owner-occupation 1,602 11,501Minus households moving to tied accommodation 384 11,117TOTAL APPLICABLE MOVES 11,117Times proportion unable to afford 71.1%TOTAL IN NEED (2 years) 7,902ANNUAL ESTIMATE OF NEWLY ARISING NEED 3,951Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 82

8. Newly arising needIn total the table above shows that 11,117 ‘potentially in need’ moves took place in the past twoyears from outside the City. The survey data also shows us that 71.1% of these households cannotafford market housing (as with the main analysis of existing households in need the affordabilitytest is based on the size requirements and financial situation of those households having made a‘potentially in need’ move over the past two years). Therefore our estimate of the number ofhouseholds falling into need from outside the City is 7,902 households (11,117 × 0.711) over thetwo-year period. Annualised this is 3,951 households per annum.Although the level of need from in-migrants may seem relatively high, it is not an unusual level. Itshould also be remembered that requirements from those households falling into need but movingout of the City of Westminster will not have been included.This figure is high because Westminster has a highly transient population, including a significantnumber that reside in the City for a very short period of time. It is likely that many of thehouseholds that move into the City will be prepared to pay more than is recommended for theirhousing costs to reside in the area.8.6 SummaryThe data from each of the above sources can now be put into the Basic Needs Assessment Model asis shown in the table below. It indicates that additional need will arise from a total of 6,049households per annum.Table 8.4 Basic Needs Assessment Model – Stages 8 to 13N: NEWLY ARISING NEEDElement Notes Final number8. New household formation (gross, p.a.) 339. Times proportion unable to buy or rentin market10. plus ex-institutional population movinginto community11. plus existing households falling intoneed12. plus in-migrant households unable toafford market housing100.0% cannot affordmarket housingLeaves 33522,0133,95113. equals Newly arising need 9+10+11+12 6,049Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 83


9. Supply of affordable housing9. Supply of affordable housing9.1 IntroductionThis chapter looks at current supply of affordable housing from both the Council and RSLs in theCity. We shall begin by highlighting the general patterns of supply in the social rented stock overthe past three years before making a judgement about which supply figures should feature as part ofthe needs assessment model.ODPMGuide‘The most important source of supply is typically relets of existing social housing. Abasic projection should assume continuance of the same rate of net relets as in thelast year or an average over the last 3 years’. [Section 2.4 (page 26)]9.2 The Social Rented stockWe have studied information from the Council’s Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix (HSSA) forthree years (from 2003 to 2005 inclusive). The figure below shows the changing levels of stock forboth the Council and RSLs within the City.Figure 9.1 Council and RSL stock numbers (2003-2005)16,00014,000Council12,963 13,08212,624 12,925RSL12,407 12,67912,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00002003 2004 2005Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The above table shows that there has been a decrease in the number of RSL properties and also adecrease in the number of Council rented properties. The reductions recorded in Council stocknumbers between 2003 and 2005 are largely due to Right-to-Buy sales. Overall, there has been a netdecrease of 959 properties from the City of Westminster social housing stock (480 per annum).PAGE 85

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 20069.3 The supply of affordable housing(i) Council stockThe table below shows an estimate of the supply of lettings from Council-owned stock over the pastthree years. The data shows that the number of lettings has slightly increased between 2002/03 and2004/05. The average number of lettings over the three-year period was 563 per annum.Table 9.1 Analysis of past housing supply (council rented sector)Source of supply 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 AverageLA lettings through mobility arrangements 6 1 1 3LA lettings to new secure tenants 120 124 18 87LA lettings to new tenants on an introductory tenancy 411 448 553 471LA lettings to new tenants on other tenancies 9 3 9 7(Exclude transfers from RSL) (8) (7) (0) (5)LA TOTAL EXCLUDING TRANSFERS 538 569 581 563Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006(ii) RSL stockFor the RSL stock we can again look at HSSA information. Additionally, CORE data provides anindication of the number of lettings in the RSL sector. The table below shows the number of lettings(excluding RSL to RSL transfers) from each of these sources over the past three years.Table 9.2 Analysis of past housing supply – (RSL sector)2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 AverageHSSA data 628 547 388 521CORE data 456 442 388 429AVERAGE 542 495 388 475Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The data in this table suggests that the supply of RSL lettings has decreased over the three-yearperiod. The average for the three-year period from both sources together is 475 per annum.It should be noted that for the period 2003 to 2005 HSSA data shows that an average of 99households transfer from Council to RSL dwellings within the City of Westminster per annum.PAGE 86

9. Supply of affordable housing(iii) Estimate of lettingsThe figures for RSL lettings show some variation over time. This makes it difficult to estimatefuture supply with any certainty. For the purposes of estimating future supply we have thereforeused the average number of lettings over the three year period studied (the use of data for a threeyear period is consistent with Government guidance).ODPMGuide‘The most important source of supply is typically relets of existing social housing. Abasic projection should assume continuance of the same rate of net relets as in thelast year or an average over the last 3 years’. [Section 2.4 (page 26)]Therefore our estimated future supply of lettings from the social rented sector overall will be 939(563+475-99).9.4 New dwellingsFrom the estimated supply of affordable housing we also need to deduct lettings made to newdwellings. As one of the main purposes of the survey is to estimate any surplus or shortfall ofaffordable housing, it is important to avoid double-counting by not including likely future supplythrough additions to the stock from RSLs and the Local Authority (although these new propertieswill themselves in time produce some relets). This is also a view taken in ODPM guidance.ODPMGuide‘…it may be more helpful to combine committed and shortfall figures [shortfallincluding committed new provision] to obtain an overall affordable need estimate,which can then be related to overall planned housing requirements and provision’.[Section 2.4 (page 26)]Table 9.3 Analysis of past provision of new affordable rented housing– Average for three yearsNew affordable housing 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 AverageAdditional LA dwellings (HSSA) 0 0 0 0Additional RSL dwellings (HSSA) 243 206 165 205Additional RSL dwellings (CORE) 141 135 103 126Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table above summarises information contained in the HSSA return for 2003-2005 (Section N)and CORE data for the same period. The data indicates that there has been an annual average of 166new affordable housing completions between 2002-03 and 2004-05. These are taken away from ourestimate of lettings to provide a relet figure of 773 dwellings per annum (939-166). The figure of773 represents a turnover of around 3.1% (based on the number of relets and the estimated numberof social rented dwellings (i.e. 773/25,086).PAGE 87

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 20069.5 Shared ownership supplyIn most local authorities the amount of shared ownership available in the stock is fairly limited (asis the case in the City of Westminster). However, it is still important to consider to what extent thecurrent supply may be able to help those in need of affordable housing.Therefore we include an estimate of the number of shared ownership units that become availableeach year. Information from the Housing Corporation suggests that there are around 494 sharedownership units in the City; the Census estimated the figure to be 659, Council informationsuggests 715, whilst the housing needs assessment data estimates 172. The average of these fourfigures is 510. For the purposes of this analysis it is assumed that the turnover of shared ownershipaccommodation is roughly the same as found in the social rented sector. This is estimated at 3.1%.Hence we estimate that each year an average of 16 units of shared ownership tenure will becomeavailable to meet housing needs (3.1% × 510). Therefore, the estimate of supply becomes 789 perannum (773+16).9.6 Vacant dwellingsAs of April 2005, there were 412 vacant dwellings in the social rented stock, representing around1.6% of all social rented stock in the City. This is considered to be an average vacancy rate andhence no adjustment needs to be made to the figures to take account of this.ODPMGuide‘The change in vacancies is a key factor in the net stock approach. The generalprinciple is that there should be a target vacancy rate to allow normal movement inthe housing stock. Typical recommended allowances would be 4 per cent for theprivate sector with 2 per cent being more appropriate for the social sector’. [Section2.5 (page 28)]9.7 Changes in the supply of affordable housingThis covers stages 15 and 16 of the ‘Basic Needs Assessment Model’. Stage 15 is ‘minus increasedvacancies & units taken out of management’; Stage 16 is ‘plus committed units of new affordablesupply’.In the case of Stage 15, it would not be sensible to remove from the supply equation the number ofproperties taken out of management. It is much more sensible to estimate the likely reduction inrelets as a result of such losses.PAGE 88

9. Supply of affordable housingIn the case of Stage 16 it seems more logical to exclude committed units as the purpose of theanalysis is to show a surplus or shortfall of affordable housing. Including committed units might insome cases show a surplus of affordable housing where in fact the new housing is required toprevent a shortfall. However, we must remember that new affordable housing will in time produceadditional relets (in the same way as relet opportunities are lost when dwellings are ‘taken out ofmanagement’).Data contained in HSSA returns suggests that from April 2003 to April 2005 there has been a netdecrease of 959 properties from the City of Westminster’s social housing stock (480 per annum).Given an average turnover of around 3.1% this would equate to a net decrease of around 15 lettingopportunities per annum. Hence, on the basis of this information it is estimated that average futuresupply of affordable housing will be 774 units per annum (789-15).9.8 SummaryThe table below details the stages in arriving at an estimate of the 774 relets from the current stockof affordable housing per annum. Analysis of HSSA and CORE data (excluding transfers within thesocial rented stock) for 2004/2005 indicates an average supply of lettings of 939 per year. Takingaccount of lettings made to new dwellings the supply estimate is reduced by 166 units per annum. Itis assumed that there would be no additional lettings from the vacant stock, whilst units taken out ofmanagement and committed units of new affordable supply will lead to a net decrease of 15dwellings per annum. Finally, we have included 16 ‘relets’ from shared ownership dwellings, whichincreases supply to a total of 774. The second table shows how this fits into the Basic NeedsAssessment model.Element of supplyTable 9.4 Estimated future supply of affordable housing (per annum)Number of unitsAverage lettings per annum (excluding transfers) 939Lettings in new housing -166‘Relets’ of shared ownership +16Additional lettings in vacant stock +0Letting opportunities lost through units taken out of management (Stage 15)Letting opportunities gained through additional stock (Stage 16)-15ESTIMATED SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING (PER ANNUM) 774Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 89

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Table 9.5 Basic Needs Assessment Model – Stages 14 to 17S: SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE UNITSElement Notes Final number14. Supply of social relets p.a.15. minus increasedvacancies & units takenout of management16. plus committed units ofnew affordable supply p.a.Excludes transfers withinsocial rented stock andincludes ‘relets’ of sharedownershipLetting opportunities lostLetting opportunities gained17. equals affordable supply 14-15+16 774Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006789-15PAGE 90

10. Basic needs assessment model10. Basic needs assessment model10.1 IntroductionThe table on the following page shows the final figures in the ‘Basic Needs Assessment Model’.This brings together the three key elements that have been calculated in the preceding chapters,namely; the Backlog of Existing Need, Newly Arising Need and the Supply of Affordable Units.The overall output from these three analytical stages represents the estimated net affordable housingrequirement across the City of Westminster.10.2 Total housing needThe backlog of existing need suggests a requirement for 346 units per year and the newly arisingneed a requirement for 6,049 units per annum. These two figures together total 6,395 units perannum. The total estimated supply to meet this need is 774 units per year. This therefore leaves ashortfall of 5,621 units per year.PAGE 91

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006B: BACKLOG OF EXISTING NEEDTable 10.1 Basic Needs Assessment ModelElement Notes Final number1. Backlog need existinghouseholds2. minus cases where in-situsolution most appropriate3. times proportion unable to affordto buy or rent in marketNumber of households currentlyliving in unsuitable housingIn situ (or outside the City) solutionmost appropriate for 9,576households82.0% = 1,488 – also remove 901social renting tenants11,390Leaves 1,8144. plus Backlog (non-households) Homeless = 1,141 1,1415. equals total Backlog need 1,7286. times quota to progressivelyreduce backlog7. equals annual need to reduceBacklogN: NEWLY ARISING NEED8. New household formation(gross, p.a.)9. times proportion unable to buy orrent in market10. plus ex-institutional populationmoving into community11. plus existing households fallinginto need12. plus in-migrant householdsunable to afford market housing587Suggest 20% as in ODPM report 20%346100.0% cannot afford market housing Leaves 3333522,0133,95113. equals Newly arising need 9+10+11+12 6,049S: SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE UNITS14. Supply of social relets p.a.15. minus increased vacancies &units taken out of management16. plus committed units of newaffordable supply p.a.Excludes transfers within socialrented stock and includes ‘relets’ ofshared ownershipLetting opportunities lostLetting opportunities gained17. equals affordable supply 14-15+16 77418. Overall shortfall/surplus 396+5,874-774 (per annum) 5,621NB Elimination of the backlog over a five-year period is recommended in the Guide. However,the Council can make a policy decision to do so over a longer period.Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006789-15PAGE 92

10. Basic needs assessment model10.3 The City of Westminster situation in contextAs Fordham Research has carried out about a hundred borough-wide housing needs assessmentssince the ODPM Guide was published in 2000, it is possible to provide reasonable indicative levelsfor the typical levels of affordable housing or shortage found across Britain.In order to ‘standardise’ the levels of need/shortage for local authorities of widely varying scale, theshortfall/surplus of affordable housing has been divided by the numbers of thousands of householdsin the Council area.The value for the City of Westminster is a shortfall of 51 per 1,000 (calculated as (5,621/109,180)×1,000). As can be seen, this figure is well above the national average of a shortage of 16 and theaverage for the Inner London of a shortage of 32.Figure 10.1 Typical levels of need for new affordable housingWestminsterInner LondonOuter LondonSouth WestSouth EastUnited KingdomEastScotland & WalesWest MidlandsNorthEast Midlands4899121716162732510 10 20 30 40 50 60Affordable housing requiremement/000 householdsSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200610.4 Size requirements and sub-areasOverall the survey suggests a shortfall of affordable housing in the City. However, it is alsoimportant to look at what type of shortfalls exists within the current stock of affordable housing.This is recognised in the ODPM guidance.PAGE 93

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006ODPMGuide‘Housing needs estimates and projections expressed as global figures for an entirelocal authority area are important, but they are far from being the whole story… it isimportant that local authorities consider the extent to which such outputs should bedisaggregated by property size/type and also by sub-area.If this is not done, there is a danger that global figures will mask the true situation –for example, a surplus of smaller properties could act to offset a shortage of largerhomes. In reality, of course, this offsetting could not occur, since the availability ofsmaller homes would be of no value to those needing family-size accommodation’.[Section 4.7 (pages 66-67)]Hence this section looks at any mismatches between the need for affordable housing and the supplyfor different sizes of accommodation and at a sub-area level.(i) Size requirementHaving estimated the net need for affordable housing in the City, it is useful to make suggestionsabout required property sizes. This is done through looking at past patterns. The number ofbedrooms required by households in need is balanced against the number of bedrooms secured bythose who have recently moved into affordable accommodation. The number of bedrooms requiredis a sustainable measure that reflects the number of people in a household and ensures theaccommodation is suitable for the household over a period of time.This analysis is shown in the table below, which indicates that there are shortfalls for all sizes ofaccommodation. The largest shortfall is for two bedroom units, however, the shortage relative tosupply is greatest for three bedroom properties where it is estimated that only 4.2% of the need canbe met. It should be noted that the size profile of the supply of affordable housing is obtained byconsidering the distribution of dwellings let to new Council and RSL tenants (i.e. not includinghouseholds transferring within the social rented sector) over the past three years based oninformation supplied by the Council. The proportions are then applied pro-rata to match the totalsupply figure.Table 10.2 Net need for affordable housing by size() indicates a surplusSize required Need Supply TOTALSupply as% of need1 bedroom 2,127 535 1,592 25.2%2 bedroom 2,429 160 2,269 6.6%3 bedroom 1,645 69 1,576 4.2%4+ bedroom 194 9 185 4.7%TOTAL 6,395 774 5,621 12.1%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 94

10. Basic needs assessment model(ii) Sub-area level analysisThe table below provides the same style of analysis as above (by sub-area). The table again showsthe need, supply and overall requirement for affordable housing. The table shows that all five of thesub-areas display an overall shortage of affordable housing; this is most apparent in the CentralStrip where the largest shortfalls are experienced. The shortage relative to supply is also greatest forthe Central Strip where only 4.0% of the need can be met. As above, the geographical location ofthe supply is found by considering the location of dwellings let to new social rented tenants (i.e. notincluding households transferring within the social rented sector) over the past three years based oninformation supplied by the Council and pro-rating the breakdown to the total supply of 774 perannum.Table 10.3 Net need for affordable housing by sub-area() indicates a surplusSub-area Need Supply TOTALSupplyas % ofneedNorth West 892 304 588 34.1%North 1,169 98 1,070 8.4%Central Strip 3,127 125 3,002 4.0%South Central 197 26 171 13.1%South 1,010 221 789 21.9%Total 6,395 774 5,621 12.1%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200610.5 Implications for affordable housing policyAppendix A1 details the key features of current ODPM Affordable Housing policy. This haschanged only slightly with the draft affordable housing sections of PPS3 (published in December2005).The main implications for affordable housing policy are the choice of an appropriate percentagetarget, the site size threshold at which the eventual affordable housing policy will apply and thetypes of affordable housing best suited to meeting the need. Each is discussed below.PAGE 95

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006(i) Percentage targetThe Guide to Housing Needs Assessments has its own proposals on how targets should becalculated (contained within Table 8.1 of the Guide). It is therefore worth pursuing the suggestedODPM method to show the expected result. The table below shows an estimate of the likelysuggested percentage target from following the ODPM method.Table 10.4 Calculation of affordable housing target: following ODPMmethodologyElementDwellings (per annum)Affordable housing requirement 5,621Minus affordable supply from non S106 sites (estd)* -0EQUALS 5,621Projected building rate † 680Minus sites below threshold (assumed) -0Minus affordable supply from non S106 sites (estd)* -0EQUALS 680Therefore Target is 5,621/680EQUALS 827%* Information obtained from the Council’s 2004/5 HSSA return (average number of dwellings built without section 106between 2004/05 and 2006/07)† Annual build rate required 1997-2016 as documented in the London PlanSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200610.6 Intermediate housingHaving considered the level of housing need in the City it is interesting to study what types ofaffordable housing might be most appropriate to meet this need. In principle there are two broadcategories of housing which can be considered (intermediate housing and social rented).Intermediate housing can be defined as housing (irrespective of tenure) priced between social rentsand the market. Existing intermediate housing options suggest that this form of accommodation isusually only marginally cheaper than market housing. However for the purpose of this section of thereport intermediate housing is defined as that costing above social rents but below the cost ofmarket housing.The table below shows our estimates of the minimum cost of market housing in the City, andestimated new social rent levels. The estimated cost of intermediate housing is also presented. Theoutgoings for private rented housing have been used for all sizes for the minimum price of markethousing as these are cheaper than those for owner-occupation (in terms of outgoings).PAGE 96

10. Basic needs assessment modelSize requirementTable 10.5 Basic information required for assessment oftypes of affordable housing requiredSocial rent(£/week)*IntermediatehousingMinimum pricedsecond-hand markethousing (£/week)**1 bedroom £75 £76-£204 £2052 bedrooms £93 £94-£297 £2983 bedrooms £102 £103-£411 £4124+ bedrooms £115 £116-£555 £556*CORE Data (2005)**Survey of Estate and Letting Agents in City of Westminster 2006Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006It can be seen from the table above that for all dwelling sizes, the cost of social rented housing issignificantly below that of market housing. Therefore it is clear that intermediate housing will besuitable for some households in need.The table below shows the estimated breakdown of additional affordable housing requirements bysize and type of housing per annum. The figures are for gross need.Table 10.6 Amount of annual requirement for each type ofaffordable housing (all tenures)Type of housingDwelling sizeIntermediatehousingSocial rentedTOTAL1 bedroom 689 1,438 2,1272 bedrooms 462 1,967 2,4293 bedrooms 648 998 1,6454+ bedrooms 145 49 194TOTAL 1,944 4,451 6,395Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table shows that in total 30.4% of the gross requirement could be intermediate housing pricedabove the cost of social rents, the remainder should be social rented housing. However, from thesefigures it is important to deduct the supply of affordable housing. As with the previous analysis thishas been split by social rented and intermediate housing.PAGE 97

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Table 10.7 Annual supply for each type of affordable housingDwelling sizeIntermediatehousingType of housingSocial rentedTOTAL1 bedroom 2 533 5352 bedrooms 9 151 1603 bedrooms 5 64 694+ bedrooms 0 9 9TOTAL 16 758 774Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The following table therefore estimates the net requirements for each type of affordable housing bysize. Overall, the table shows that 34.3% of the net requirement is for intermediate housing. Thisvaries according to dwelling size. It’s estimated that over three-quarters (78.4%) of the need forfour bedroom properties could be met through intermediate housing, whereas 20.0% of the need fortwo bedroom properties could be met in this way. The large net requirement for four bedroomintermediate housing reflects that accommodation of this size has the largest intermediate housingband (the largest gap between social rent and market entry).Table 10.8 Net annual need for affordable housing for each typeof affordable housing (surplus)Type of housingDwelling sizeIntermediatehousingSocial rentedTOTAL1 bedroom 687 904 1,5912 bedrooms 453 1,815 2,2693 bedrooms 643 933 1,5764+ bedrooms 145 40 185TOTAL 1,928 3,693 5,621Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006It is possible to expand on this analysis by looking at affordability within the intermediate housingcategory. To do this the wider intermediate band has been split into four equal bands as is presentedin the table below.PAGE 98

10. Basic needs assessment modelSize requirementTable 10.9 Basic information required for assessment of types ofaffordable housing requiredSocial rent(£/week)*Lowerintermediate(£/week)Mid-lowerintermediate(£/week)Mid-upperintermediate(£/week)Upperintermediate(£/week)Minimumpricedsecond-handmarkethousing(£/week)**1 bedroom £0-75 £76-108 £109-140 £141-173 £174-204 £205+2 bedrooms £0-93 £94-144 £145-196 £196-247 £248-297 £298+3 bedrooms £0-102 £103-180 £181-257 £258-335 £336-411 £412+4+ bedrooms £0-115 £116-225 £226-336 £337-446 £446-555 £556+*CORE Data (2005)**Survey of Estate and Letting Agents in City of Westminster 2006Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006As per the previous analysis we can estimate the number of households in need who fall into eachof the bands described in table 10.9. This is shown in the table below. The figures are for grossneed.Size requirementTable 10.10 Affordability of different types of affordable housingSocial rentLowerintermediateMid-lowerintermediateMid-upperintermediateUpperintermediate1 bedroom 1,438 521 113 0 55 2,1272 bedrooms 1,967 186 218 0 57 2,4283 bedrooms 998 234 190 69 155 1,6454+ bedrooms 49 136 0 0 9 194TOTAL 4,452 1,077 521 69 277 6,395Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006TotalIt is clear that the vast majority of those in the ‘intermediate’ category have income/affordabilitylevels at the bottom of the scale. For example, the data suggests that 82.2% of those who couldtheoretically afford intermediate housing could afford nothing costing more than a half of thedifference between social rented and market prices. There are few households with income levelsclose to the market (14.2% of the intermediate group fall into the ‘most expensive’ category).The table also indicates that the vast majority of households requiring a four bedroom intermediatehome could only afford housing in the lowest band. Of the 145 households in gross need suitablefor a four bedroom intermediate home, some 93.8% can afford nothing more than £225 per week.The overwhelming majority of four bedroom intermediate housing in the City of Westminstershould therefore cost £225 or less per week.PAGE 99

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006The survey asked households whether they were aware of a number of different intermediatehousing products. The table below indicates the response that was obtained from households inneed. The table shows that some 72.1% of households in need were not aware of any of theintermediate housing options listed. Awareness of shared ownership amongst households in needwas the greatest, with 20.6% of households familiar with it, some 17.2% of households in needwere aware of key worker living schemes and only 8.3% aware of discounted market sale.Table 10.11 Number of households in need aware of intermediatehousing productsProductHouseholds inneed% of householdsin needShared Ownership 1,318 20.6%Key Worker living schemes 1,102 17.2%Discounted Market Sale 529 8.3%Not aware of any 4,611 72.1%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200610.7 A longer term view of the housing requirementThe main assessment of the requirement for additional affordable housing has been based on a fiveyear time period (as required by ODPM guidance, Section 2.4 (page 25)). It is however possible toextend this period further into the future. We have considered below what the requirement foradditional affordable housing would be over a ten year period following the same approach as setout in the preceding chapters.The annual estimates of newly arising need and supply are unchanged but the backlog of need hasbeen divided by ten (rather than five as suggested in the Guide) to spread it over the ten year period.The table below summarises the results up to 2016 and indicates a shortfall of around 5,448affordable homes per year. Assuming the level of supply remains the same over this period, the totalrequirement to 2016 would be around 54,480 additional affordable homes (i.e. 5,448 per year forthe 10 years to 2016). These figures are however less robust than the estimated requirement overfive years.PAGE 100

10. Basic needs assessment model10.8 SummaryTable 10.12 Summary of Basic Needs AssessmentModel (annual requirement to 2016)ElementB. BACKLOG OF EXISTING NEEDNumber of householdsAnnual need to reduce backlog 173N. NEWLY ARISING NEEDNewly Arising Need 6,049S. SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE UNITSAffordable supply 774Overall shortfall/Surplus 5,448Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The Housing Needs Assessment in the City of Westminster followed guidance from The ODPM in‘Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to Good Practice’. This involved estimates of the‘Backlog of existing need’, ‘Newly arising need’ and future supply to estimate the current surplusor shortfall of affordable housing in the City of Westminster. Using this model it is estimated thatfor the next five years there will be a shortfall of 5,621 affordable housing units per annum in theCity.The survey indicates that a third of this need could be met by intermediate housing, although furtheranalysis indicates that intermediate housing would have to be priced at the lower end of theintermediate housing band for its potential to be maximised.PAGE 101


SECTION D: BROADER HOUSING MARKET & FUTURE CHANGESSECTION D: BROADER HOUSING MARKET & FUTURECHANGESThe previous section focused exclusively on housing need and the requirement for affordablehousing. However, in order to fully develop informed housing policies, Local Authorities are alsointerested in housing demand across all tenures. This section thus considers the broader housingmarket in City of Westminster. First household characteristics are examined across all tenures;following on from that we consider the question of how far the housing market is ‘balanced’.The ODPM Guide definition of housing demand is given below.ODPMGuide‘Housing demand refers to the quantity and type/quality of housing whichhouseholds wish to buy or rent and are able to afford. In other words, it takesaccount of both preferences and ability to pay. [Section A2.2 (page 116)]It is important to note that in this section that deals with the broader housing market, studenthouseholds have been included in the analysis.PAGE 103


11. Market housing11. Market housing11.1 IntroductionEmphasis on analysis of the whole market as part of a Housing Needs Assessment has been a themeof Government policy at least since the publication of PPG3 (2000).PPG3 (2000) para 13‘Assessments of housing need which underpin local housing strategies and local planpolicies are matters for local authorities to undertake in the light of their local circumstances.Local planning authorities should work jointly with housing departments to assess the rangeof needs for different types and sizes of housing across all tenures in their area’.This chapter considers some general issues surrounding supply and household characteristics withinprivate sector tenures in the City of Westminster.11.2 Owner-occupied sectorIt is useful for the Council to have information concerning supply and turnover of market housing inorder to inform planning control. In particular, councils will want to ensure that new developmentsmeet demand with regard to dwelling size and type.Data suggests that 43.7% of households in the City are owner-occupiers and that 55.9% of thesehave a mortgage. As was shown in Chapter 6, households in owner-occupied accommodationwithout a mortgage have lower average incomes than those with a mortgage, although it should beremembered that the former group contains many older people who are likely to be retired.The table below shows the size profile of the owner-occupied stock in the City of Westminster. Thedata suggests that over half of households have three or more bedrooms. Only 13.0% have onebedroom accommodation.Table 11.1 Size of dwellings (number of bedrooms) in theowner-occupied stockNumber of bedrooms Households % of households1 bedroom 6,405 13.0%2 bedrooms 13,936 28.4%3 bedrooms 20,714 42.2%4+ bedrooms 8,064 16.4%TOTAL 49,119 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 105

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006The table below builds on this by looking at the turnover of owner-occupied stock within each sizecategory over the last two years.Table 11.2 Turnover of dwellings in the owner-occupied stockby size of dwelling (number of bedrooms)Number ofbedroomsNumbermoving in pasttwo yearsNumber ofhouseholdsEstimatedannualturnover rate1 bedroom 508 6,405 4.0%2 bedrooms 463 13,936 1.7%3 bedrooms 634 20,714 1.5%4+ bedrooms 80 8,064 0.5%TOTAL 1,685 49,119 1.7%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The recent mover data points to an overall turnover rate of 1.7%, although this will be a slightunderestimation of total turnover for the dwellings concerned (given that there may have beenmultiple moves in the two-year period). Turnover of one bedroom dwellings is greater than for theother property size categories.Finally, we can consider households claiming financial assistance with their housing costs (formortgage interest payments). The data suggests that around 1.6% of households with a mortgagereceive income support towards their mortgage payments (445 households). This figure represents0.9% of all owners. Additionally, it is estimated that 28.8% of owner-occupiers with a mortgage arepaying more for housing than is recommended, based on the affordability test described in Chapter6.11.3 The private rented sectorThe private rented sector is an important part of the housing spectrum in an area. In Britishconditions it is not often a long-term choice but is an important transitional tenure. In many casesthe private rented sector is a stage in the progress of a household moving into owner-occupation,but can also be a stage in the move of a household into social rented housing.In more detail, and as a market sector, the private rented sector plays an important role. It meets theneeds of:i) Business people who have short term reasons for staying in a place (e.g. for six months or ayear, when it would not be worth the time and transactional cost of buying property)PAGE 106

11. Market housingii) Those planning entry to the owner-occupied market but who have not had time either tofind suitable property or accumulated a sufficient deposit to do soiii) The needs of those who cannot obtain suitable affordable housing, and cannot affordmarket prices to rent or buy. With the aid of Housing Benefit they may obtain short termhousing in the private rented sector.Data suggests that the City of Westminster has a larger than average private rented sector (34.3% ofhouseholds compared with around 10% nationally). The two tables below show the size ofdwellings in the private rented sector and the relative turnover of stock. It is clear that the number ofone and two bedroom properties is proportionately much larger in the private rented sector – 76.9%of all private rented stock is one or two bedroom, which compares with only 41.4% of the owneroccupiedstock.Overall, the data shows that turnover of stock is much higher in the private rented sector, whichwould be expected given the transitory nature of the tenure. The estimated annual turnover rate inthe private rented sector is 35.1% compared to 1.7% in the owner-occupied sector.Table 11.3 Size of dwellings (number of bedrooms) in theprivate rented stockNumber of bedrooms Households % of households1 bedroom 16,082 41.7%2 bedrooms 13,606 35.2%3 bedrooms 7,629 19.8%4+ bedrooms 1,284 3.3%TOTAL 38,602 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Table 11.4 Turnover of dwellings in the private rented stock bysize of dwelling (number of bedrooms)Number ofbedroomsNumbermoving in pasttwo yearsNumber ofhouseholdsEstimatedannualturnover rate1 bedroom 12,821 16,082 39.9%2 bedrooms 10,397 13,606 38.2%3 bedrooms 3,269 7,629 21.4%4+ bedrooms 621 1,284 24.2%TOTAL 27,108 38,602 35.1%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 107

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Additionally, survey data suggests that 9.2% of households (3,533 households) in the private rentedsector are in receipt of housing benefit, this compares with 0.9% of all owners. It is also estimatedthat an additional 65.5% of private renters are paying more for housing than is recommended, basedon the affordability test described in Chapter 6.11.4 The social rented sectorIt is of interest to briefly provide the same information as above for the social rented sector. Thetables below show stock profile and turnover rates for all social rented housing in the City. The datashows that the social rented sector has relatively few four or more bedroom properties whilst 72.8%are one or two bedroom.The turnover rate in the social rented stock is around 7.2% per annum, with the highest turnover forproperties with one bedroom.Table 11.5 Size of dwellings (number of bedrooms) in the socialrented stockNumber of bedrooms Households % of households1 bedroom 12,510 50.7%2 bedrooms 5,446 22.1%3 bedrooms 5,814 23.6%4+ bedrooms 904 3.7%TOTAL 24,674 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Table 11.6 Turnover of dwellings in the social rented stock bysize of dwelling (number of bedrooms)Number ofbedroomsNumbermoving in pasttwo yearsNumber ofhouseholdsEstimatedannualturnover rate1 bedroom 2,542 12,510 10.2%2 bedrooms 440 5,446 4.0%3 bedrooms 538 5,814 4.6%4+ bedrooms 10 904 0.6%TOTAL 3,530 24,674 7.2%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Survey data also suggests that 43.9% of households in the social rented sector are in receipt ofhousing benefit.PAGE 108

11. Market housing11.5 Data comparisonsFor ease of comparison it is useful to bring together the information from the above analysis. Thefigure below compares the profile of stock (by size) in each of the three main sectors. The figuremakes it clear that there are large differences between the stock profiles in the different sectors. Thesocial and private rented sectors are heavily biased towards smaller properties whilst the opposite istrue in the owner-occupied sector.Figure 11.1 Profile of housing stock (by size and tenure)Owner-occupiedPrivate rentedSocial rented0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below summarises the position with regard to turnover of stock and the proportion ofhouseholds claiming housing benefit (income support) towards housing costs. The table againclearly demonstrates the differences between the different tenures. The turnover of private rentedstock is over twenty times that in the owner-occupied sector whilst households in the social rentedsector are significantly more likely to claim assistance with their housing costs than owners orprivate tenants.TenureTable 11.7 Turnover of stock and housing benefit claimsby tenureAnnual turnover ofstock (% ofhouseholds)% claiming housingbenefit (incomesupport for owners)Owner-occupied 1.7% 0.9%Private rented 35.1% 9.2%Social rented 7.2% 43.9%TOTAL 14.4% 11.2%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 109

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 200611.6 SummaryEmphasis on examination of the whole market as part of developing local Housing Strategies hasbeen a theme of Government policy since the publication of PPG3 (2000). This suggests that theplanning and housing departments should work together to understand local housing requirementsacross all tenures and size requirements.Analysis of survey data suggests that the owner-occupied sector accounts for around 43.7% of thetotal housing stock and is dominated by three bedroom properties. Private rented properties makeup 34.3% and are characterised by a larger proportion of one and two bedroom dwellings. Theestimated annual turnover rate in the owner-occupied sector is around 1.7%, which compares to35.1% in the private rented sector.PAGE 110

12. Balancing housing markets12. Balancing housing markets12.1 IntroductionA ‘Balancing Housing Markets’ (BHM) assessment looks at the whole local housing market,considering the extent to which supply and demand are ‘balanced’ across tenure and property size.The notion has been brought into prominence by the work of the Audit Commission in assessingcouncils’ performance (Comprehensive Performance Assessment (CPA) of Local authorities).The Audit Commission specification for assessing the balancing of housing markets (AuditCommission March 2003) sets out three broad questions for the assessment:i) How well does the Council understand its housing market and from its understanding hasthe Council developed the right proposals to help balance the housing market?ii) What are the Council’s actions and what outcomes has it achieved in helping to balancehousing markets?iii) How well does the Council monitor its progress and impact in helping to balance housingmarkets and how effectively does this feed into future strategy and plans?This chapter outlines and applies a BHM analysis, which can assist the Council in fulfilling theabove objectives. Data concerning supply and demand within different tenures allows aconsideration of the extent to which the local housing market in the City of Westminster isbalanced. It is worth noting however that the City of Westminster is part of a wider London housingmarket and is not a self-contained market. The City itself also has a particular role to play as it is atthe centre of a World City.Whilst one of the outputs of the BHM model is an estimate of the shortfall of affordable housing,this should not be taken as an estimate of the absolute need for such housing. As the BHM is ademand and aspiration driven model (the BNAM being mainly based on past trends) there areinevitably some households who have a demand for affordable housing but under the BNAM wouldnot be considered as needing such housing. Additionally as the bulk of the supply in the BHM isbased on expected future household moves it is often the case that this model shows a lower supplylevel than the trend data of the BNAM (typically drawn from HSSA).PAGE 111

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006It is therefore common to find that the BHM shows a slightly higher estimate of the affordablerequirement than the BNAM but this should not be taken as the survey’s base estimate of theabsolute requirement for affordable housing (which is measured using the ODPM's Basic NeedsAssessment Model). The BHM is however particularly useful at ascertaining what shortages exist inthe private sector market and can help to guide councils in securing an appropriate mix of markethousing on new housing developments.The inherent idea behind the BHM method is that it seeks to meet the requirements of the currentpopulation first with the amount of in-migration used to ‘balance’ figures to the estimatedhousehold growth of an area.Unlike the specific model followed in Section C, however there is only very general guidanceprovided for a BHM analysis. The next subsection summarises our approach.12.2 Procedure in outlineIn overview, a BHM analysis assesses the aspirations of would-be movers in relation to totaldwellings, broken down by property size and tenure. Growth is constrained by the projected futurebuilding rate for the City of Westminster from the London Plan.The steps involved are listed below:i) Total allocation of new dwellings to the City of Westminsterii) Numbers of households wishing/planning to move (both existing and newly forming)iii) Distinguish those who can afford their proposed moves from those who cannotiv) Those who cannot afford their moves are allocated to affordable housing (in principle) asthey cannot afford to rent or buy at market pricesv) The total of market and non-market moves is assessed in relation to the net extra number ofdwellings requiredvi) This is assessed against the allowed total of new dwellings for the City. Where the netdemand is greater than the total, this is noted, by tenure groupvii) Where the total net demand is less than the allowed total new build, then the difference isassumed to be net in-migration, often of market purchasersviii) All figures are calculated on an annual basis from figures over a two year periodPAGE 112

12. Balancing housing markets12.3 Why gross flows cannot predict tenureThe ODPM Guide suggests a Gross Flow approach, which bases forecasts on past patterns, in orderto carry out a BHM. However, given that market dynamics and socio-economic factors are alwayschanging, past patterns are actually fairly limited as a predictor. Past (or even projected future)changes in the proportions of dwelling types and tenure groups are not indicative of what shouldhappen in order to best meet housing requirements in the future. In the jargon, such data has no‘normative’ value: it contains no element of judgement. This was noted by Fordham Research aslong ago as 1993:‘future variation in proportions of owner-occupiers, private renters etc should beconsidered as variables on which policy is to operate in seeking to meet housing need. Inthis sense it is not appropriate to use them as fixed variables’ (Wycombe Housing NeedsSurvey, Fordham Research 1993)Examples of why unadjusted gross flows are not a satisfactory predictor are easy to cite:i) If in a local authority area over a period of time (say a year) nothing but four bedroomowner-occupied dwellings are built then the gross flows methodology would show thatnothing but four bedroom owner-occupied homes are required in the future (even if there isa significant need for additional affordable housing).ii) On the other hand another local authority may have needed (and been able) to build asignificant number of additional affordable units, the gross flows approach would indicatethat the Local Authority still required large numbers of affordable housing units (whichmight not be the case).12.4 Adapted Gross Flows (AGF)The Fordham approach, therefore, adapts the notion of balance inherent in Gross Flows to takeaccount of future housing aspirations and affordability as well as past trends. This revised approachhas the advantage of not simply mirroring the past and also helps to avoid any ‘unbalancing’ actionswhich may have been at work.At the most general level:• Demands minus the supply should give a net change (increase usually) in number ofdwellings/householdsPAGE 113

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006For the purpose of this test we have set the overall net increase in dwellings to 680. This is based onthe required build rate from 1997 to 2016 as indicated in the London Plan.Full details of the analysis are presented in Appendix A3. Set out below is a summary of the results.12.5 Summary of dataThe results of the analysis can be summarised as follows, prior to inputting into the final table:Growth – 680 per annumDemandNew households forming within the City – 1,185In-migration – 2,963Households moving within the City – 4,130Total demand = 8,278SupplyHousehold dissolution (through death) – 825Out-migrant – 2,643Households moving within the City – 4,130Total supply = 7,598The results of the calculations detailed in Appendix A4 are shown in the following table:TenureTable 12.1 Total shortfall or (surplus)Size requirement1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTOTALOwner-occupation (334) 179 487 73 405Affordable housing 983 1,756 1,380 39 4,158Private rented (1,981) (1,180) (625) (97) (3,882)TOTAL (1,332) 755 1,243 14 680Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 114

12. Balancing housing marketsA number of conclusions can be drawn from this analysis:i) In terms of the demand for affordable housing in the City it is clear that this is on-going.The BHM methodology suggests a significant shortfall of affordable housing of all sizesof accommodation, most notably two and three bedroom homesii)iii)Overall, the data shows a shortfall in the owner-occupied sector. Within this sector thereis a shortfall of all dwelling sizes with the exception of one bedroom properties whichdisplay a surplus. The main shortage is for three bedroom homes.The model indicates that there is a large surplus in the private rented sector. In this sectorall dwelling sizes show a surplus, since many households view this sector as anundesirable long term solution whilst the supply of private rented housing is likely to belarge due to the temporary nature of the tenure.12.6 Implications of analysisAnalysis using the ODPM ‘Basic Needs Assessment model’ found that there is a shortage ofaffordable housing in the City of Westminster. The BHM assessment, which constrains growthaccording to planned development and then balances demand across all tenures, also produces thisconclusion.The Guide Model and the BHM analysis both find that an affordable housing target is justified inthe City of Westminster. The more robust methodology of the Guide Model means that thisprovides a more accurate estimate of the total shortfall.There is a difference between the size profiles recorded for affordable housing in the BHM analysiswith that recorded in the BNAM analysis in table 10.2e. The reason for this is that the BNAManalysis is based on the strict bedroom standard (described in the glossary) which allows for nounder-occupation and records the minimum number of bedrooms a household requires, whilst theBHM analysis is based on the dwelling size preferences of households so therefore includes anydesired under-occupation and allows for household growth.12.7 SummaryIn addition to looking at the needs of households by closely following the ODPM’s ‘Basic NeedsAssessment Model’ the survey used a ‘demand’ based methodology to estimate the future demandfor housing across all tenures.PAGE 115

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Like the BNAM, the ‘demand’ based methodology suggested that there is a requirement foradditional affordable housing in the City. This methodology also suggested that there will be ashortfall of owner-occupied accommodation in the future and a large surplus of private rentedhomes.PAGE 116

SECTION E: THE NEEDS OF PARTICULAR GROUPSSECTION E: THE NEEDS OF PARTICULAR GROUPSThis section addresses particular client groups that may have very specific housing requirements.Although such groups do not necessarily represent households in need as defined by the ODPMGuide, it is important for the Council to have detailed information on them in order to informspecific policies and service provision.For example, the frail elderly may not be in housing need in the sense of not being able to affordmarket housing, but many of them are liable to require extra care in the future, whether directly, orvia aids and adaptations in the home.This section covers the following groups:• Households with support needs• Older person households• Key worker households• Black and Minority Ethnic households• Overcrowding and under-occupationThe section finishes with a short chapter looking at the incidence of overcrowding and underoccupationamongst different groups of households in the City.It is important to note that in this section student households have been included in the analysisunless stated.PAGE 117


SECTION E: THE NEEDS OF PARTICULAR GROUPS13. Households with support needs13.1 IntroductionThere are groups that may, because of their condition or vulnerability, have requirements forspecialised forms of housing provision, or else require support services in order to continue livingan independent life in their existing home. The survey asked respondents to identify whetherthemselves or any other household members had an attribute that may require additional support.This chapter documents the situation of these households and any implications this has for theCouncil.13.2 Data coverageThe survey collected information on the presence within the household of any people within thefollowing broad categories:• Frail elderly• Persons with a physical disability• A learning disability• A mental health problem• Severe sensory disability• OthersEach person with a support need could respond to as many of the above categories as is applicable.This means that we can differentiate between households that have more than one person with asupport need and those that have people with multiple support needs.13.3 Households with support needs: overviewOverall there are an estimated 12,971 households in the City of Westminster with one or moremembers in an identified support needs group. This represents 11.5% of all households, which isjust below the average Fordham Research has found nationally (13-14%).Westminster City Council commissions a wide range of specialist housing related support servicesthat meet the diverse needs that are presented in Westminster. In particular this includes over 700units of hostel provision for rough sleepers, over 200 bedspaces services for young homeless peopleand over 500 specialist units for people with mental health problems.PAGE 119

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006The table below shows the numbers of households with different types of support needs. Thenumbers of households in each category exceed the total number of support needs householdsbecause people can have more than one category of support need.'Physically disabled' is the predominant group. There are 7,451 households with a physicallydisabled household member. The next largest group is ‘frail elderly’, with 5,042 households havinga member in this category. These two categories represent 57.4% and 38.9% of all support needshouseholds respectively.CategoryTable 13.1 Support needs categoriesNumber ofhouseholds% of allhouseholds% ofsupportneedshouseholdsFrail elderly* 5,042 4.5% 38.9%Physical disability 7,451 6.6% 57.4%Learning disability** 59 0.1% 0.5%Mental health problem*** 2,782 2.5% 21.5%Severe sensory disability 256 0.2% 2.0%Other 570 0.5% 4.4%* Note- elderly people who have become frail & who may find it difficult to cope in ordinary housing** The survey has identified 59 households with at least one member with a learning disability; however the Cityof Westminster records suggest that there are 530 individuals with a learning disability within the City.*** Additional City of Westminster information also suggests that 2,693 new individual referrals were made to theMental Health Trust in 2005/2006.Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006In addition to the above information we are able to look at the number of people in each householdwith a support need and also households containing persons with multiple support needs. Theresults for these are shown below.Table 13.2 Number of people with support needsHouseholds% of householdsNo people with support needs 99,424 88.5%One person with support needs 11,910 10.6%Two persons with support needs 1,061 0.9%Three or more persons with support needs 0 0.0%TOTAL 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 120

SECTION E: THE NEEDS OF PARTICULAR GROUPSTable 13.3 Households with support needsHouseholds% of householdsNo people with support needs 99,424 88.5%Single support need only 10,219 9.1%Multiple support needs 2,752 2.4%TOTAL 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The two tables above show that the majority of support needs households (91.8%) only contain oneperson with a support need and that the majority of households with a support needs member do nothave multiple support needs (78.8%). However, some 1,061 households in the City of Westminsterare estimated to have two or more people with a support need whilst an estimated 2,752 householdscontain someone with multiple needs.13.4 Characteristics of support needs householdsThe survey indicates that 1,276 support needs households (9.8%) currently reside in shelteredaccommodation with the remainder living in normal residential accommodation.The tables below show the characteristics of support needs households in terms of household size,age, tenure, sub-area and unsuitable housing.Number ofpersons inhouseholdTable 13.4 Size of support needs householdsSupport needsNo supportneedsSupport needs householdsNumber ofh’holds% of totalh’holds withsupport needs% of those witha support needOne 8,432 46,514 54,946 15.3% 65.0%Two 2,478 29,088 31,566 7.9% 19.1%Three 1,400 11,184 12,584 11.1% 10.8%Four 536 7,664 8,200 6.5% 4.1%Five 32 3,367 3,399 0.9% 0.2%Six or more 93 1,607 1,700 5.5% 0.7%TOTAL 12,971 99,424 112,395 11.5% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table above shows that a household with support needs members is more likely to be small.Almost two-thirds of support needs households contain only one person. Support needs householdsare also more likely to contain older persons.PAGE 121

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Age groupTable 13.5 Support needs households with and without older peopleSupportneedsSupport needs householdsNo supportneedsNumber ofh’holds% of totalh’holds withsupportneeds% of thosewith asupportneedNo older people 4,272 82,684 86,956 4.9% 32.9%Both older & non older people 2,719 2,867 5,586 48.7% 21.0%Older people only 5,979 13,872 19,851 30.1% 46.1%TOTAL 12,970 99,423 112,393 11.5% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006As the table below shows, support needs households are more likely to be living in social rentedhousing. Some 39.6% of Council and 25.1% of RSL tenants contain a member with support needs,compared to 3.4% of owner-occupiers (with mortgage) and 1.7% of private rented tenants.TenureTable 13.6 Support needs households and tenureSupportneedsSupport needs householdsNo supportneedsNumber ofh’holds% of totalh’holdswithsupportneeds% of thosewith asupportneedOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 3,426 18,242 21,668 15.8% 26.4%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 939 26,512 27,451 3.4% 7.2%Council 4,830 7,367 12,197 39.6% 37.2%RSL 3,134 9,343 12,477 25.1% 24.2%Private rented 642 37,960 38,602 1.7% 4.9%TOTAL 12,971 99,424 112,395 11.5% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows the geographical distribution of support needs households. The data showsthat households in the North West are most likely to have a support need, whilst the lowest levelsare shown in the South Central area.PAGE 122

SECTION E: THE NEEDS OF PARTICULAR GROUPSSub-areaTable 13.7 Support needs households and sub-areaSupportneedsSupport needs householdsNo supportneedsNumber ofh’holds% of totalh’holds withsupportneeds% of thosewith asupportneedNorth West 5,133 18,945 24,078 21.3% 39.6%North 2,559 15,101 17,660 14.5% 19.7%Central Strip 2,767 31,033 33,800 8.2% 21.3%South Central 373 18,082 18,455 2.0% 2.9%South 2,139 16,263 18,402 11.6% 16.5%TOTAL 12,971 99,424 112,395 11.5% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below indicates that support needs households are more likely to be living in unsuitablehousing than non-support needs households. Some 13.9% of all support needs households are livingin unsuitable housing, which compares with 10.2% of all households and 9.7% of all non-supportneeds households.Support needsTable 13.8 Support needs households and unsuitable housingIn unsuitablehousingNot inunsuitablehousingUnsuitable housingNumber ofh’holds% of totalh’holds inunsuitablehousing% of those inunsuitablehousingSupport needs 1,804 11,168 12,972 13.9% 15.7%No support needs 9,662 89,762 99,424 9.7% 84.3%TOTAL 11,466 100,930 112,396 10.2% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200613.5 Requirements of support needs householdsThose households with a member with support needs were asked to indicate if there was a need forimprovements to their current accommodation and/or services. The responses are detailed in thefigure below.PAGE 123

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure 13.1 Support needs households: improvements to accommodation & servicesLift / stair lift2,303Level access shower unitOther alterations / adaptationsNeed to move to alternative housing with specialist careLow level kitchen units (including sink) or lever taps1,3491,2761,1861,118Emergency alarm913Handrails / extra handrails765Wheelchair accessLow level light switches or raised power pointsMore support services to your present homeSingle-level accommodationNeed to move to alternative housing with specialist adaptationsCar parking space near to front door of home605491422406320307Downstairs WC210 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500HouseholdsSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The results show requirements for a wide range of adaptations and improvements across the supportneeds households. The most commonly-sought improvements needed were:• Lift/stair lift (2,303 households – 17.8% of all support needs households)• Level access shower unit (1,349 households – 10.4% of all support needs households)• Other adaptations (1,276 households – 9.8% of all support needs households)13.6 Accommodation preferencesSome 21.2% of support needs households expressed a need or expectation to move within the next5 years (compared to 30.1% of all households), equating to 2,753 households. The table belowpresents the type of property preferred by these support needs households that are likely/need tomove in the next five years alongside the type of property they expect to move to.PAGE 124

SECTION E: THE NEEDS OF PARTICULAR GROUPSTable 13.9 Dwelling type aspirations andexpectations for support needs householdsProperty type Like ExpectDetached 10.9% 10.1%Semi-detached 11.5% 0.0%Terraced house 13.9% 5.2%Flat/ maisonette 63.7% 84.7%Total 100.0% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table indicates that more support needs households would like to live in a house than wouldexpect to.The table below presents the type of accommodation preferred by these support needs householdsalongside the type of accommodation they expect to move to. The data indicates that no supportneeds households would like to move to a residential care home but 10.1% of these householdsexpect to. A greater proportion of support needs households would like extra care housing thanexpect it. In terms of ordinary residential accommodation slightly more households would expectthis type of accommodation than would like it.Table 13.10 Accommodation type aspirations and expectations forsupport needs householdsAccommodation type Like ExpectSheltered housing 17.0% 17.0%Supported housing 10.6% 10.6%Extra Care Scheme 13.2% 3.1%Residential Care Home 0.0% 10.1%A bungalow 0.8% 0.0%Ordinary residential accommodation 58.4% 59.1%Total 100.0% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 125

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 200613.7 Care & repair and staying put schemesThis section studies support needs households who have stated experiencing difficulty inmaintaining their home. There is already a care and repair scheme in Westminster designed toenable households with support needs to live comfortably within their own home, having access tothe support services they need.The results are shown in the table below and are split between owner-occupiers and tenants. Thetable clearly shows that support needs households are more likely than other households in the Cityto have problems maintaining their homes.Of all households with a problem or serious problem, a total of 64.4% have support needs. A vastmajority of these are tenants.Table 13.11 Support needs households and difficulty maintaining homeA problem/ seriousNo problemHousehold groupproblemTOTALNumber % Number % Number %Support needs – owner-occupied 4,244 99.3% 31 0.7% 4,275 100.0%Support needs – tenants 5,505 63.3% 3,191 36.7% 8,696 100.0%All support needs households 9,749 75.2% 3,222 24.8% 12,971 100.0%All households 107,392 95.5% 5,003 4.5% 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The evidence of the tables above is that there is certainly justification for the ‘staying put’ or ‘careand repair’ scheme in the City. A total of 5,003 households state a problem with maintaining theirhomes – of these 3,222 are support needs households with an estimated 3,191 living in rentedaccommodation.13.8 Support needs households and the basic needs assessment modelIn addition to the above it is possible to study how support needs households fit into the BasicNeeds Assessment Model. The table below gives an estimate of how much of the housing need willbe from support needs households and also an estimate of the likely supply to these households. Thetable shows there is an estimated net supply of 291 dwellings per annum from support needshouseholds.PAGE 126

SECTION E: THE NEEDS OF PARTICULAR GROUPSTable 13.12 Basic Needs Assessment Model and sizerequirement (support needs households)Household group Need Supply TOTALSupport needs households 158 448 (291)Non-support needs households 6,237 326 5,912TOTAL 6,395 774 5,621Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200613.9 SummarySome 11.5% of all the City’s households (12,971) contain support needs members. ‘Physicallydisabled’ is the largest category with support needs. There are 7,451 households containing a‘physically disabled’ person and a further 5,042 with household members who are ‘frail elderly’.Support needs households in the City of Westminster are generally smaller than average for the Cityand are disproportionately made up of older persons only. Support needs households are more likelythan households overall to be in unsuitable housing.Support needs households in general stated a requirement for a wide range of adaptations andimprovements to the home. A lift/stair lift and level access shower units were most commonlyrequired.Finally, the survey suggested there is justification for furthering the ‘care & repair’ and ‘stayingput’ scheme currently in Westminster.PAGE 127


14. Older person households14. Older person households14.1 IntroductionData was collected in the survey with regard to the characteristics of households with older persons.This chapter looks at the general characteristics of older person households and details someadditional survey findings about such households.Older people are defined as those over the state pension eligibility age (currently 65 for men, 60 forwomen). For the purpose of this chapter, households have been divided into three categories:• Households without older persons• Households with both older and non-older persons• Households with only older persons14.2 The older person populationJust below 18% of all households in the City of Westminster contain only older persons and afurther 5.0% contain both older and non-older persons. The table below shows the number andpercentage of households in each group.CategoriesTable 14.1 Older person householdsNumber ofhouseholds% of allhouseholdsHouseholds without older persons 86,957 77.4%Households with both older and non-older persons 5,587 5.0%Households with older persons only 19,852 17.7%TOTAL 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200614.3 Characteristics of older person householdsThe number of occupants in older person households is shown in the table below. The data suggeststhat all households containing older persons only are comprised of one or two persons only. Justunder a third of all single person households are older person households.PAGE 129

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Number ofpersons inhouseholdTable 14.2 Size of older person only householdsOlderpersonsonlyOtherh’holdsAge groupNumber ofh’holds% of totalh’holdswith olderpersons% of thosewith olderpersonsOne 15,914 39,032 54,946 29.0% 80.2%Two 3,938 27,628 31,566 12.5% 19.8%Three 0 12,583 12,583 0.0% 0.0%Four 0 8,200 8,200 0.0% 0.0%Five 0 3,399 3,399 0.0% 0.0%Six or more 0 1,700 1,700 0.0% 0.0%TOTAL 19,852 92,543 112,395 17.7% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows the housing tenures of households with older persons. Over half of olderperson only households are owner-occupiers. The overwhelming majority of these do not have amortgage. This finding suggests that the potential for equity release schemes in the City ofWestminster is quite high.Another significant finding is the relatively high proportion of social rented accommodationcontaining older people only (24.2%). This may have implications for future supply of specialisedsocial rented accommodation.TenureTable 14.3 Older person only households and tenureOlderpersonsonlyOtherhouseholdsAge groupTotalhhs% witholderpersons% ofolderpersonhhsOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 10,998 10,670 21,668 50.8% 55.4%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 840 26,611 27,451 3.1% 4.2%Council 3,162 9,035 12,197 25.9% 15.9%RSL 2,739 9,738 12,477 22.0% 13.8%Private rented 2,112 36,490 38,602 5.5% 10.6%TOTAL 19,852 92,543 112,395 17.7% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows the geographical distribution of older person only households. The NorthWest and the North have the highest proportions of pensioner only households whilst the CentralStrip has the lowest proportion.PAGE 130

14. Older person householdsSub-areaTable 14.4 Older person only households and sub-areaOlderpersonsonlyOtherhouseholdsAge groupTotal hhs% witholderpersons% of olderperson hhsNorth West 5,280 18,798 24,078 21.9% 26.6%North 3,846 13,814 17,660 21.8% 19.4%Central Strip 4,598 29,202 33,800 13.6% 23.2%South Central 3,456 14,998 18,454 18.7% 17.4%South 2,670 15,731 18,401 14.5% 13.4%TOTAL 19,852 92,543 112,395 17.7% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200614.4 Dwelling characteristicsThe table below shows the type of accommodation that older person only households reside in. Thedata indicates that older person only households are more likely than non-older person householdsin the City of Westminster to be living in purpose built flats and less likely to be living in othertypes of flats.Table 14.5 Type of accommodation by older person only householdsAccommodation type% of older personhouseholds% of non-older personhouseholdsDetached house/bungalow* 0.3% 0.8%Semi-detached house/bungalow 5.5% 1.8%Terraced house/bungalow 2.3% 9.4%Purpose-built flat/maisonette 75.2% 57.4%Other flat/maisonette** 16.7% 30.5%TOTAL 100.0% 100.0%* Includes mobile homes**Other flat/maisonette includes flats that are part of a converted or shared house and flats in a commercialbuildingSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows that older person only households are less likely than non-older personhouseholds in the City of Westminster to be living in four bedroom dwellings but are more likely tolive in three bedroom properties. A three-bedroom home is the most common property size for olderperson only households. Given that previous information has shown that most older person onlyhouseholds are comprised of only one or two persons, this finding suggests that there could bepotential scope to free up larger units for younger families if the older households chose to moveinto suitable smaller units.PAGE 131

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Table 14.6 Size of dwellings (number of bedrooms) for olderperson only householdsNumber of bedrooms% of older personhouseholds% of non-olderperson households1 bedroom 31.4% 31.1%2 bedrooms 30.5% 29.1%3 bedrooms 37.6% 28.8%4+ bedrooms 0.4% 11.0%TOTAL 100.0% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006This information can be further broken down by tenure (for older person households) and this isshown in the table below. The table indicates that whilst the majority of large (3+ bedroom)properties are in the owner-occupied sector there are also a significant number in the social rentedsector and may therefore present some opportunity to reduce under-occupation.TenureTable 14.7 Older person only households size of accommodation and tenureSize of accommodation1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4+ bed TOTALOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 829 3,337 6,742 89 10,997Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 0 548 292 0 840Council 2,435 509 217 0 3,161RSL 2,094 559 86 0 2,739Private rented 884 1,096 133 0 2,113TOTAL 6,242 6,049 7,470 89 19,850Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200614.5 Accommodation preferencesAlthough just 2,539 older person only households (12.8%) expressed a need or expectation to movewithin the next 5 years it is of value to look at the type of accommodation preferred by thesehouseholds. It is important to note that as so few older person only households anticipate moving inthe next five years, the sample size is significantly reduced and the results of this section should betreated with caution.The table below presents the type of property preferred by these older person only households thatare likely/need to move in the next five years alongside the type of property they expect to move to.The table indicates that a greater number of older person only households would like to live in asemi-detached house than would expect to, with the reverse true for a flat/maisonette. Aflat/maisonette is however the dwelling type most commonly preferred.PAGE 132

14. Older person householdsTable 14.8 Dwelling type aspirations andexpectations for older person only householdsProperty type Like ExpectDetached 11.0% 11.0%Semi-detached 14.9% 0.0%Terraced house 1.5% 3.4%Flat/ maisonette 72.6% 85.6%Total 100.0% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below presents the type of accommodation preferred by these older person onlyhouseholds alongside the type of accommodation they expect to move to. The data indicates thatolder person only households have similar expectations to what they would like. However, the datadoes show that a greater proportion of older person only households would expect a residential carehome than would like to move to it. Ordinary residential accommodation is the preferredaccommodation for over half of older person only households.Table 14.9 Accommodation type aspirations and expectations forolder person only householdsAccommodation type Like ExpectSheltered housing 13.6% 13.6%Supported housing 11.5% 11.5%Extra Care Housing 14.3% 3.4%Residential Care Home 0.0% 11.0%A bungalow 0.0% 0.0%Ordinary residential accommodation 60.6% 60.6%Total 100.0% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200614.6 Older person households and the basic needs assessment modelSome 11.6% of all older person only households (2,301 households) in the City of Westminster livein unsuitable housing. This figure is above the figure of 10.2% for all households.In addition we can look at older persons needs using the basic needs assessment model. Followingthis method suggests that there is an annual need to provide accommodation for 215 older personhouseholds. Data from the Council on recent lettings in the social rented stock in Westminsterindicate that there was a supply of 101 dwellings per year over the last two years from older personsaccommodation. Therefore the BNAM suggests a shortfall of affordable housing for older personsof 114 units per annum.PAGE 133

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006It is important to note that there is a need for all forms of social rented housing and not justspecialist older persons’ accommodation, particularly as older person households have indicated apreference for remaining in their own home if they require care rather than moving to specialisthousing.14.7 SummarySome 17.7% of households in the City of Westminster contain older persons only, and a further5.0% contain a mix of both older and non-older persons. Older person only households are largelycomprised of one or two persons, providing implications for future caring patterns. Although themajority of older person only households live in the private sector, it is interesting to note that arelatively high proportion of social rented accommodation houses older people only (24.2%).Older person households contribute to the overall net need for additional affordable housing.PAGE 134

15. Key worker households15. Key worker households15.1 IntroductionThe term intermediate housing is often used with reference to specific groups of households such askey workers. The survey therefore analysed such households. For the purposes of analysis keyworkers were defined according to government guidelines as people working in any one of 6categories. These were:• Health (NHS)• Education• Social workers• Prison and probation staff• Emergency services• Local authority plannersThe nature of this study means that the key workers identified within the survey are those that areresident in the City. The data, therefore, includes key workers resident in the City who work outsideits boundaries and excludes key workers who work in the City of Westminster but live outside. Theanalysis of key workers concentrates on their current housing situation, future demands for housingand affordability.15.2 Number of key workersIn total it is estimated that there are 12,109 key workers living in the City of Westminster. The tablebelow shows the categories of key workers within the City. The main categories of key worker areeducation, health (NHS) and social workers. It is important to note that the employment categoriesused in the survey are broader than the key worker definitions used by government to determineeligibility for key worker schemes, but they are reflective of the broader public sector workforce.Table 15.1 Key worker categoriesCategory Number of persons % of key workersEducation 4,557 37.6%Health (NHS) 3,727 30.8%Social workers 2,827 23.3%Emergency services 825 6.8%Prison and probation service 143 1.2%Local Authority planners 31 0.3%TOTAL 12,109 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 135

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006In total it is estimated that 6,972 households are headed by a key worker (head of household takenas survey respondent). These households are subject to further analysis in the sections below.15.3 Housing characteristics of key worker householdsThe table below shows various household and housing characteristics of key worker households.The results indicate that a large proportion of key worker households are currently living in owneroccupiedaccommodation and are more likely at 56.1% to be owner-occupiers (with mortgage) thannon-key workers (42.9%). Key worker households are more likely than non-key worker householdsto be living in the social rented sector and are much less likely to live in private rentedaccommodation.In terms of household composition key worker households are more likely than non-key workers tolive in households with two or more adults with or without children. As a result key workerhouseholds have a greater requirement for properties with three or more bedrooms than non-keyworker households, and a lower requirement for one bedroom dwellings.In terms of the geographical location of key worker households the data reveals that suchhouseholds are particularly likely to be living in the Central Strip.In terms of age, key worker household heads are much more likely to be in the 40 to 49 age bracket,with 42.1% being in this range, compared to 19.5% of non-key workers household heads. Non-keyworker household heads are more likely than key worker household heads to be over 60; which isnot surprising given the group will contain a large proportion of retirees that will not be present inthe key workers households.PAGE 136

15. Key worker householdsTable 15.2 Key worker households and housing/household characteristicsCharacteristicKey worker householdNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNot key worker householdNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsTenureOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 462 6.6% 21,206 20.1%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 3,449 49.5% 24,002 22.8%Council 750 10.8% 11,447 10.9%RSL 1,010 14.5% 11,467 10.9%Private rented 1,301 18.7% 37,301 35.4%Household compositionSingle pensioners 0 0.0% 15,914 15.1%2 or more pensioners 39 0.6% 3,898 3.7%Single non-pensioners 1,095 15.7% 37,937 36.0%2 or more adults – no children 2,392 34.3% 32,937 31.2%Lone parent 211 3.0% 2,685 2.5%2+ adults 1 child 1,390 19.9% 6,092 5.8%2+ adults 2+ children 1,844 26.5% 5,960 5.7%Sub-areaNorth West 2,204 31.6% 21,874 20.7%North 89 1.3% 17,571 16.7%Central Strip 2,256 32.4% 31,544 29.9%South Central 1,068 15.3% 17,387 16.5%South 1,354 19.4% 17,047 16.2%Size requirement1 bedroom 2,332 33.5% 76,283 72.4%2 bedrooms 2,320 33.3% 20,135 19.1%3 bedrooms 1,924 27.6% 7,647 7.3%4+ bedrooms 395 5.7% 1,358 1.3%Age of household head0 to 19 0 0.0% 1,817 1.7%20 to 29 492 7.1% 18,171 17.2%30 to 39 1,694 24.3% 24,588 23.3%40 to 49 2,935 42.1% 20,545 19.5%50 to 59 1,699 24.4% 15,142 14.4%60 and over 152 2.2% 25,160 23.9%TOTAL 6,972 100.0% 105,423 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200615.4 Previous household moves of key worker householdsThe table below indicates when key worker and non-key worker households moved to their currentaccommodation. The results show that 28.3% of all key worker households had moved to theircurrent accommodation within the last five years compared with 39.6% of non-key workers.PAGE 137

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006When moved to present homeTable 15.3 Key worker households and past movesKey worker householdNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNot key worker householdNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsWithin the last year 25 0.4% 16,849 16.0%1 to 2 years ago 688 9.9% 7,779 7.4%2 to 5 years ago 1,257 18.0% 17,051 16.2%5 to 10 years ago 1,364 19.6% 10,411 9.9%Over 10 years ago 3,426 49.1% 47,386 44.9%Always lived here 212 3.0% 5,946 5.6%TOTAL 6,972 100.0% 105,422 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Previous tenure and location information for households moving in the last five years is presentedin the table below. The results show that almost half of key worker households moving in the lastfive years were private renting households, a proportion below that of non-key worker households.Some 49 of the 931 key worker households that were previously private renting were living in tiedaccommodation. Key worker households were more likely to have moved from social rented andowner-occupied accommodation, whilst a smaller proportion of non-key worker households werenewly forming. In terms of location, the data suggests that key worker households are more likely tohave moved from within the City of Westminster than non-key workers.Table 15.4 Previous tenure and location of households moving in last five yearsCharacteristic Key worker household Not key worker householdNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsTenure of previous homeOwner-occupied 348 17.7% 4,421 10.6%Social rented 594 30.1% 4,806 11.5%Private rented 931 47.2% 27,189 65.2%Newly forming household 98 5.0% 5,263 12.6%Location of previous homeIn the City of Westminster 927 47.0% 18,403 44.2%Elsewhere in London 924 46.9% 12,392 29.7%Elsewhere in the South East 10 0.5% 904 2.2%Elsewhere in the United Kingdom 0 0.0% 3,408 8.2%Abroad 110 5.6% 6,571 15.8%TOTAL 1,970 100.0% 41,679 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 138

15. Key worker households15.5 Housing aspirations of key worker householdsThe survey also collected information on the future aspirations of households seeking to movewithin the next five years. The table below indicates that of the 6,972 key worker households, atotal of 21.2% need or are likely to move over the next five years. This figure is well below the30.7% of non-key worker households who need/are likely to move in the next five years.When need/likely to moveTable 15.5 Key worker households and future movesKey worker householdNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNot key worker householdNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNow 62 0.9% 8,095 7.7%Within a year 317 4.5% 10,142 9.6%1 to 2 years 619 8.9% 8,203 7.8%2 to 5 years 484 6.9% 5,941 5.6%No need/not likely to move 5,490 78.8% 73,042 69.3%TOTAL 6,972 100.0% 105,423 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table indicates that 1,482 key worker households stated they were likely or would need to movewithin the next five years. Their housing preferences (in terms of tenure, location and size) arepresented in the table below and are compared with results for all non-key worker householdswanting to move within the next five years.PAGE 139

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Table 15.6 Housing preferences of households seeking to move in the next five yearsHousing preferencesKey worker householdNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNot key worker householdNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsTenureBuy own home 1,188 80.2% 17,496 54.0%Rent from the Council 67 4.5% 4,877 15.1%Rent from a Housing Association 0 0.0% 1,433 4.4%Rent from a private landlord 227 15.3% 7,031 21.7%Tied accommodation 0 0.0% 1,544 4.8%Shared Ownership 0 0.0% 0 0.0%LocationIn the City of Westminster 912 61.5% 19,530 60.3%Elsewhere in London 385 26.0% 6,470 20.0%Elsewhere in the South East 51 3.4% 632 2.0%Elsewhere in the United Kingdom 134 9.0% 687 2.1%Abroad 0 0.0% 5,060 15.6%Stated size preference1 bedroom 86 5.8% 9,482 29.3%2 bedrooms 555 37.4% 16,502 51.0%3 bedrooms 491 33.1% 4,671 14.4%4+ bedrooms 351 23.7% 1,725 5.3%TOTAL 1,483 100.1% 32,380 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table indicates that owner-occupation is the preference for 80.2% of key worker householdscompared to 54.0% of non-key worker households. Key worker households are less likely than nonkeyworker households to want social rented accommodation. In terms of location it appears as ifkey worker households are more likely to want to move within the City. In terms of stated sizepreferences, key worker households are more likely to want larger three or four bedroom propertiesthan non-key worker households.15.6 Income and affordability of key worker householdsThe table below shows a comparison of income and savings levels for key worker and non-keyworker households. The figure for non-key worker households has been split depending on whetheror not the head of household is in employment or not. Figures shown are for annual gross income(including non-housing benefits).PAGE 140

15. Key worker householdsThe table suggests that generally key worker households have slightly higher income levels thannon-key worker households (those in employment). The table also indicates that the range of keyworker households’ incomes is smaller than that of non-key worker households. The lower quartileincome of £28,500 for key worker households would not enable them to purchase a home withinWestminster, but this is true of the lower quartile income of non-key worker households inemployment. Key worker households however have a lower level of savings than non-key workerhouseholds. In comparison with all households, income levels for both key worker and non-keyworker households are above the City average although, for key worker households, savings levelsare below.CategoryTable 15.7 Income and savings levels of key worker householdsGross household income (including non-housingbenefits)LowerQuartileMedianMeanUpperQuartileMeanhouseholdsavingsAll key worker household £28,500 £46,878 £61,660 £62,500 £8,113All non-key worker (inemployment)£23,750 £43,512 £60,453 £73,000 £22,765All other households (no-oneworking)*£5,750 £9,546 £18,391 £17,750 £15,205All households* £10,250 £26,902 £45,587 £62,500 £19,144* These do not include student householdsSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006It is possible to consider the ability of key worker households to afford both minimum marketprices and intermediate forms of housing and this is presented in the table below for all key workerhouseholds and those key worker households that need/are likely to move in the next five years.This assessment includes key worker households that are currently owner-occupiers. The equityavailable to owner-occupiers is included in the assessment of their ability to afford.PAGE 141

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006CategoryTable 15.8 Key worker households and ability to afford housingAll key workerhouseholdsNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsKey workers moving innext five yearsNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsMarket housing 3,657 52.5% 1,032 69.6%Upper intermediate housing 185 2.7% 124 8.4%Mid-upper intermediate housing 605 8.7% 61 4.1%Mid-lower intermediate housing 1,114 16.0% 61 4.1%Lower intermediate housing 1,017 14.6% 181 12.2%Social rent only 393 5.6% 24 1.6%Total 6,972 100.0% 1,483 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table indicates that 52.5% of all key worker households are able to afford entry-level prices inthe market. It is interesting to note that of the 3,315 households unable to afford minimum marketprices, 11.9% can only afford social rented housing, whilst 88.1% can afford intermediate housing.The profile of those key worker households who need/are likely to move in the next five years isslightly different. A larger proportion of these households are able to afford entry-level prices,however of those unable to afford the market, a lower proportion are only able to afford socialrented housing (5.3%). This subset of key worker households is more likely to be able to affordmarket housing than all key worker households principally because they are less likely to containchildren and therefore require a smaller property. Further analysis reveals that all key workerhouseholds able to afford market housing are also able to afford owner-occupation.The questionnaire asked households whether they were aware of a range of intermediate housingproducts, including key worker living schemes. The survey indicates that 79.9% of key workerhouseholds were aware of key worker living schemes, which is higher then the awareness of thisproduct amongst non-key worker households (39.4%).15.7 Key workers and the basic needs assessment modelIn addition to the above it is possible to study how key worker households fit into the Basic NeedsAssessment Model. The table below gives an estimate of how much of the housing will be from keyworkers and also an estimate of the likely supply to these households. The table shows there is anestimated net need for 45 dwellings per annum for key worker households. This figure represents0.8% of the total affordable requirement in the City.PAGE 142

15. Key worker householdsTable 15.9 Basic Needs Assessment Model and (key workerhouseholds)Household category Need Supply TOTALKey workers 45 0 45Not key worker 6,350 774 5,576TOTAL 6,395 774 5,621Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200615.8 SummaryThe term intermediate housing is often used with reference to specific groups of households such askey workers. The survey therefore analysed such households (the definition being based oncategories of employment and notably including public sector workers). Analysis of survey dataindicates that there are an estimated 12,109 people in key worker occupations and 6,972 householdsare headed by a key worker. These households are more likely to be living in the owner-occupiedaccommodation than non-key workers; they are also less likely to live in private rentedaccommodation.The main findings from further analysis of these groups of households can be summarised asfollows:• Around 15% of key worker households had moved in the last five years, below that of nonkeyworkers; they were more likely to have moved from social rented accommodation thannon-key workers• Key worker households are more likely to want to move within the City and are more likelyto want to buy their own home• Key worker households have slightly higher incomes than non-key worker households (inemployment)• Some 52.5% of key worker households can afford market housing in the City. Of those thatcannot afford, 88.1% can afford intermediate housing options• In terms of the need for affordable housing the study suggests that around 0.8% of the netaffordable housing requirement comes from key worker households.PAGE 143


16. Black and Minority Ethnic households16. Black and Minority Ethnic households16.1 IntroductionInformation was gathered in the survey to find out the ethnic origin of the head of household (andpartner if applicable) for each sample household in the survey. The categories used on the surveyforms were consistent with those used in the 2001 Census. Due to the small sample size of some ofthe groups, some of the categories have been re-grouped, resulting in nine different ethnic groups.The table below shows estimates of the number of households in each of the nine ethnic groups andthe number of survey responses. For the analysis in this chapter, the ethnic group of the surveyrespondent is taken to represent the head of household.Ethnic groupTable 16.1 Number of households in each ethnic groupTotal numberof households% ofhouseholdsNumber ofreturns% of returnsWhite - British 65,921 58.7% 593 47.0%White - Irish 4,914 4.4% 58 4.6%White - Other 17,195 15.3% 107 8.5%Mixed 3,021 2.7% 98 7.8%Asian or Asian British 7,213 6.4% 103 8.2%Black or Black British - African 5,604 5.0% 116 9.2%Black or Black British - Other 2,173 1.9% 50 4.0%Arab 4,439 3.9% 97 7.7%Any other ethnic group 1,914 1.7% 39 3.1%Total 112,395 100.0% 1,261 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The above table shows that overall, White households were slightly under-represented amongstsurvey respondents whereas Black households were slightly over-represented. The survey estimatesthat just under 80% of households in the City are headed by a White person, 6.9% are headed by aBlack person, 6.4% by an Asian person, 2.7% by a person of mixed race, 3.9% by an Arab personand 1.7% by a person that classified themselves as an other ethnic group. In total around 20% ofhouseholds are headed by someone who describes themselves as non-white, although a further19.7% of households are headed by a White non-British person.16.2 Household sizeThe number of persons in each household disaggregated by ethnic origin is shown in the tablebelow.PAGE 145

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Table 16.2 Household size and ethnicityNumber of persons in householdEthnic groupAverage1 2 3 4 5 6 or more TotalHH sizeWhite - British 37,403 16,059 6,879 3,988 858 734 65,921 1.74White - Irish 2,656 996 332 863 66 0 4,914 1.92White - Other 7,650 6,803 1,649 721 88 284 17,195 2.03Mixed 615 582 355 231 1,146 92 3,021 3.33Asian or Asian British 2,429 2,159 1,533 536 156 401 7,213 2.32Black or Black British - African 754 1,578 1,166 1,359 653 94 5,604 2.99Black or Black British - Other 730 695 199 198 351 0 2,173 2.42Arab 1,902 1,773 368 264 73 59 4,439 1.89Any other ethnic group 806 921 102 41 9 36 1,914 1.76Total 54,945 31,566 12,583 8,201 3,400 1,700 112,395 1.96Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006It can be observed that Mixed households have the highest average household size with anestimated 3.33 persons per household. In contrast White - British households have the lowestaverage household size at 1.74 persons per household. These figures compare with a City ofWestminster average of 1.96 persons per household.16.3 TenureThe table and figure below show ethnic group and tenure. The data shows that White – Irish andBlack or Black British households are more likely than other groups to be living in social rentedhousing. White – Other, Asian or Asian British, Arab and Other ethnic group households areparticularly likely to live in the private rented sector. White - British and Mixed households aremost likely to be owner-occupiers.PAGE 146

16. Black and Minority Ethnic householdsEthnic groupTable 16.3 Tenure and ethnicityOwneroccupied(nomortgage)Owneroccupied(withmortgage)CouncilTenureRSLPrivaterentedWhite - British 17,866 19,540 8,017 7,839 12,659 65,921White - Irish 870 747 1,386 1,291 621 4,914White - Other 1,008 1,361 460 629 13,737 17,195Mixed 249 1,658 294 256 565 3,021Asian or Asian British 751 1,453 442 233 4,335 7,213Black or Black British - African 318 1,634 507 1,080 2,065 5,604Black or Black British - Other 210 551 391 621 400 2,173Arab 244 360 622 382 2,831 4,439Any other ethnic group 152 148 79 147 1,389 1,914Total 21,668 27,452 12,198 12,478 38,602 112,395Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006TotalFigure 16.1 Tenure and ethnicityWhite - BritishWhite - IrishWhite - OtherMixedAsian or Asian BritishBlack or Black British - AfricanBlack or Black British - OtherArabAny other ethnic group0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Owner-occupied (no mortgage) Owner-occupied (with mortgage) Council RSL Private rentedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 147

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 200616.4 Household type and support needsThe table below shows ethnic group and household type. The results show that White - Irish andWhite - British households are most likely to be pensioner households. Mixed and Black or BlackBritish households are the group most likely to contain children.Table 16.4 Household type and ethnicityHousehold TypeEthnic GroupSinglePensioner2 or morepensionersSingle nonpensioner2 or moreadults, nochildrenLone parent2+ adults, 1 ormore children2+ adults, 2+childrenTotalWhite - British 12,340 3,283 25,064 17,412 985 3,726 3,112 65,921White - Irish 1,903 225 753 779 179 312 763 4,914White - Other 682 65 6,968 7,014 1,277 749 440 17,195Mixed 140 112 475 559 39 313 1,385 3,021Asian or Asian British 51 48 2,377 3,223 25 940 549 7,213Black or Black British - African 126 28 628 2,849 222 721 1,031 5,604Black or Black British - Other 414 0 316 675 53 515 199 2,173Arab 258 40 1,645 1,926 117 159 294 4,439Any other ethnic group 0 138 806 890 0 48 32 1,914Total 15,914 3,939 39,032 35,327 2,897 7,483 7,805 112,395Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006White - BritishWhite - IrishWhite - OtherMixedAsian or Asian BritishBlack or Black British - AfricanBlack or Black British - OtherArabAny other ethnic groupFigure 16.2 Household type by ethnic group0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Single pensioner 2 or more pensioners Single non-pensioner2 or more adults, no children Lone parent 2+ adults, 1 child2+ adults, 2+ childrenSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 148

16. Black and Minority Ethnic householdsThe table below shows ethnic group by support needs. The results show that White-Irish householdswere the most likely to have support needs (nearly 25%). Households headed by White –Otherperson were the least likely to contain a person with support needs. Overall, over two-thirds ofsupport needs households are headed by a White British person.Ethnic groupTable 16.5 Support needs households and ethnic groupSupportneedsSupport needs householdsNo supportneedsNumber ofh’holds% of totalh’holds withsupportneeds% of thosewith asupportneedWhite - British 9,053 56,868 65,921 13.7% 69.8%White - Irish 1,143 3,771 4,914 23.3% 8.8%White - Other 472 16,724 17,195 2.7% 3.6%Mixed 177 2,845 3,021 5.9% 1.4%Asian or Asian British 273 6,940 7,213 3.8% 2.1%Black or Black British - African 1,220 4,383 5,604 21.8% 9.4%Black or Black British - Other 164 2,009 2,173 7.5% 1.3%Arab 321 4,118 4,439 7.2% 2.5%Any other ethnic group 149 1,766 1,914 7.8% 1.1%Total 12,972 99,424 112,395 11.5% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200616.5 Geographical locationThe table below shows the geographical distribution of ethnic minority households. The data showsa number of trends in terms of the predominance of certain groups in particular areas. For example,White - Irish households are particularly likely to live in the North West, as are Black or BlackBritish households. Arab and Other ethnic group households are particularly likely to live in theCentral Strip. Overall the Central Strip and the North West sub-areas appear to be the mostethnically diverse.PAGE 149

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Ethnic groupTable 16.6 Ethnic group and sub-areaNorthWestNorthCentralStripSub areaSouthCentralSouthTotalWhite - British 11,801 12,530 16,304 12,778 12,508 65,921White - Irish 2,170 410 1,547 443 343 4,914White - Other 2,595 2,943 6,365 2,887 2,405 17,195Mixed 1,610 0 944 268 199 3,021Asian or Asian British 1,690 835 2,549 694 1,445 7,213Black or Black British -African2,664 132 1,508 438 862 5,604Black or Black British - Other 1,139 10 517 229 278 2,173Arab 338 619 2,582 596 303 4,439Any other ethnic group 70 181 1,485 121 57 1,914Total 24,077 17,660 33,801 18,454 18,400 112,395Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Figure 16.3 Sub-area and ethnicityNorth WestNorthCentral StripSouth CentralSouth0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%White - BritishWhite - OtherAsian or Asian BritishBlack or Black British - OtherAny other ethnic groupWhite - IrishMixedBlack or Black British - AfricanArabSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 150

16. Black and Minority Ethnic households16.6 Income and savings levelsThe table below shows income levels for each ethnic category (excluding student-only households).The average income of all households in the City was estimated at £45,587. The table shows thatthere are noticeable differences between income levels of different ethnic groups with the Arabhouseholds recording the highest average income and White – Other households the lowest. Savingslevels also differ with White - Other households recording average savings of £25,896 and Black orBlack British - Other households recording £5,617.Ethnic groupTable 16.7 Income and savings levels of ethnic minority householdsAnnual gross householdincome (including nonhousingbenefits)Average householdsavingsWhite - British £44,290 £19,940White - Irish £38,196 £21,993White - Other £27,828 £25,896Mixed £55,319 £14,078Asian or Asian British £73,633 £19,259Black or Black British - African £46,481 £5,898Black or Black British - Other £32,064 £5,617Arab £96,225 £12,575Any other ethnic group £31,436 £6,631All households £45,587 £19,144Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Asian or Asian British households have the second highest incomes in the City. Breaking this groupdown further it can be seen that household heads that classified themselves as Asian or AsianBritish- Other have the highest incomes at £99,425, whilst the lowest incomes were for Asian orAsian British- Bangladeshi at £35,184. However, these results are based on a small sample size andso should be treated with caution.16.7 Unsuitable housingThe table below shows how the incidence of unsuitable housing varies by ethnic group. The tableshows that White Other households are most likely to be in unsuitable housing (at 16.1%), where asthe Black Other group are the least likely - only 2.4% of households. These figures compare to aCity average (including students) of 10.2%.PAGE 151

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Ethnic groupTable 16.8 Unsuitable housing and ethnic groupInunsuitablehousingNot inunsuitablehousingUnsuitable housingNumberof h’holdsin City% of totalh’holds inunsuitablehousing% ofthose inunsuitablehousingWhite - British 6,229 59,692 65,921 9.4% 54.3%White - Irish 621 4,293 4,914 12.6% 5.4%White - Other 2,769 14,426 17,195 16.1% 24.2%Mixed 120 2,902 3,022 4.0% 1.0%Asian or Asian British 791 6,423 7,214 11.0% 6.9%Black or Black British - African 316 5,287 5,603 5.6% 2.8%Black or Black British - Other 53 2,120 2,173 2.4% 0.5%Arab 511 3,927 4,438 11.5% 4.5%Any other ethnic group 55 1,859 1,914 2.9% 0.5%Total 11,465 100,929 112,394 10.2% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows reasons for unsuitable housing by ethnic group. It shows that overcrowdingis the most common reason for being in unsuitable housing for five of the nine ethnic groups.White British households are most likely to be in unsuitable housing because their housing is tooexpensive and Mixed households are most likely to be in unsuitable housing because ofexperiencing harassment.Table 16.9 Categories of unsuitable housing and ethnic groupEthnic groupTenancy endingexpensiveAccommodation tooOvercrowdingHome too largeSharing facilitiessupport needsLack facilitiesRepairsHarassmentWhite - British 266 1,519 330 460 0 1,259 343 1,148 908White - Irish 0 0 41 0 0 254 0 488 41White - Other 352 590 1,427 0 0 65 0 908 199Mixed 0 0 10 10 0 0 0 10 120Asian or Asian British 23 115 371 0 0 125 0 54 303Black or Black British - African 0 70 298 7 0 0 0 0 0Black or Black British - Other 0 12 33 0 0 11 0 18 0Arab 219 29 215 0 0 63 25 5 6Any other ethnic group 0 0 55 0 0 0 0 0 0Total 860 2,335 2,780 477 0 1,777 368 2,631 1,577Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 152

16. Black and Minority Ethnic households16.8 BME households and the basic needs assessment modelIt is possible to consider the ethnicity of households identified as being in need in the Basic NeedsAssessment Model. The table below gives an estimate of how much of the gross housing need willbe from each ethnic group. An estimated 41.9% of the gross affordable housing requirement is forhouseholds headed by a White - Other person, although there is a gross need for affordable housingfrom each ethnic group. All groups other than White British, White Irish and Mixed households aremore likely than average to be in housing need.Table 16.10 Basic Needs Assessment Model and ethnicity of householdsEthnic groupGross Need% of grossneed% ofhouseholdpopulationWhite - British 1,099 17.2% 58.7%White - Irish 9 0.1% 4.4%White - Other 2,681 41.9% 15.3%Mixed 59 0.9% 2.7%Asian or Asian British 776 12.1% 6.4%Black or Black British - African 522 8.2% 5.0%Black or Black British - Other 139 2.2% 1.9%Arab 832 13.0% 3.9%Any other ethnic group 279 4.4% 1.7%TOTAL 6,395 100.0% 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200616.9 Country of birthAll of the Household respondents that took part in the survey were asked to identify their country ofbirth. Eighty different answers were given in response to this question, meaning it is necessary togroup the responses together to present the information. The table below indicates the place of birthof the heads of household in the City of Westminster. The results show that 63.1% of householdheads were born in the UK, 15.3% were born elsewhere in Europe and 9.3% were born in Africaand the Middle East.PAGE 153

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Place of birthTable 16.11 Place of birth of the heads of householdNumber ofhouseholds% of allhouseholdsUnited Kingdom 70,870 63.1%Other Europe 17,160 15.3%Africa & Middle East 10,488 9.3%Asia 7,333 6.5%Americas 5,415 4.8%Australasia 1,129 1.0%Total 112,395 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200616.10 SummaryThe survey estimates that just under 80% of households in the City are headed by a White person,6.9% are headed by a Black person, 6.4% by an Asian person, 2.7% by a person of mixed race,3.9% by an Arab person and 1.7% by a person that classified themselves as an other ethnic group.The sample size was sufficient for results to be presented for nine different ethnic groups.The survey indicates that Mixed households have the highest average household size with anestimated 3.33 persons per household. In contrast White - British households have the lowestaverage household size at 1.74 persons per household. White Irish, Black and Black Britishhouseholds are more likely than other groups to be living in social rented housing. White – Other,Asian or Asian British, Arab and Other ethnic group households are particularly likely to live in theprivate rented sector.The survey showed considerable difference in both income and savings levels between the differentgroups. An estimated 41.9% of the gross affordable housing requirement is for households headedby a White-Other person, although there is a gross need for affordable housing from each ethnicgroup.PAGE 154

17. Overcrowding and under-occupation17. Overcrowding and under-occupation17.1 IntroductionThis chapter briefly studies the extent of overcrowding and under-occupation of households livingin each individual tenure group. The standards used to check for overcrowding/under-occupationwere as follows:• Overcrowding: each household was assessed as to the number of bedrooms required. Anyhousehold without enough bedrooms was deemed to be over-crowded.• Under-occupation: households with more than one spare bedroom are deemed to be underoccupied.17.2 Overcrowding and under-occupationThe table below shows a comparison between the numbers of bedrooms in each home against thenumber of bedrooms required for all households.Table 17.1 Overcrowding and under-occupationNumber ofNumber of bedrooms in homebedrooms required 1 2 3 4+ TOTAL1 bedroom 33,477 24,462 18,101 2,575 78,6152 bedrooms 1,496 7,937 10,258 2,765 22,4563 bedrooms 13 553 5,285 3,721 9,5724+ bedrooms 11 36 515 1,191 1,753TOTAL 34,997 32,988 34,159 10,252 112,395KEY: Overcrowded households Under-occupied householdsNote:The bottom two cells of the 4+ bedroom column contain some households that are eitherovercrowded or under-occupied – for example they may require three bedrooms but live ina five bedroom property or may require a five bedroom property but are currently occupyinga four bedroom property.Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The estimated number of overcrowded and under-occupied households is as follows:• Overcrowded: 2.7% of households = 3,051 households• Under-occupied: 20.9% of households = 23,441 householdsPAGE 155

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 200617.3 Household characteristicsThe figures below show levels of overcrowding and under-occupation by various householdcharacteristics. The figure shows some clear differences between different household groups.In terms of tenure, the figure shows that owner-occupiers are most likely to be under-occupyingdwellings and less likely to be overcrowded; this is particularly true for those with no mortgage. Itshould also be noted that there are very few overcrowded households in RSL accommodation.Council households are the least likely to be under-occupied (7.6%); and are most likely to beovercrowded (4.7% of households).Household type analysis suggests that households containing adults with children are the mostlikely to be overcrowded, particularly lone parent households where 43.4% were overcrowded.These households are also least likely to under-occupy. Households containing two or morepensioners are most likely to be under-occupying.There was little difference between households with and without support needs, though the latterwere slightly more likely to be overcrowded and slightly more likely to under-occupy their home.The age distribution shows that households containing only older people are not likely to beovercrowded and more likely to be under-occupied than other households.Looking at differences between sub-areas, households in the North West are the most likely to beovercrowded (6.7% of households); households in South Central were the most likely to be underoccupied.The North was the least likely sub-area to contain under-occupying households (4.5%).PAGE 156

17. Overcrowding and under-occupationFigure 17.1 Household characteristics and overcrowding/under-occupationOwner-occupied (no mortgage)Owner-occupied (with mortgage)CouncilRSLPrivate rentedSingle pensioners2 or more pensionersSingle non-pensioners2 or more adults - no childrenLone parent2+ adults 1 child2+ adults 2+childrenSupport needsNo support needsNo older personsBoth older and non-older personsOlder persons onlyNorth WestNorthCentral StripSouth CentralSouth0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Overcrowded OK Under-occupiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 157

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006In addition to the above figures it is of use to consider the household types and tenure of thosehouseholds under-occupying. This will give some indication of the scope for measures to reduceunder-occupancy (particularly in the social rented sector). The table below shows this analysis.Household typeTable 17.2 Under-occupation by household type and tenureOwneroccupied(nomortgage)Owneroccupied(withmortgage)TenureCouncilRSLPrivaterentedTOTALSingle pensioner 4,584 0 41 86 109 4,8202 or more pensioners 2,099 0 152 0 24 2,275Single non-pensioner 1,479 1,217 86 501 1,000 4,2832 or more adults, no children 2,898 4,141 494 510 2,400 10,443Lone parent 0 0 0 0 0 02+ adults, 1 child 0 466 92 7 35 6002+ adults, 2+ children 501 209 67 223 17 1,017TOTAL 11,561 6,033 932 1,327 3,585 23,441Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table shows that there are a significant number of pensioner households under-occupying in theowner-occupied (no mortgage) sector, where as around two-thirds of under occupied private rentedsector stock was occupied by 2 or more adults with no children. No lone parent households wereunder-occupying their properties.17.4 Income levelsThe figure below shows the income levels of households who are overcrowded or under-occupied(excluding student households). The data shows that under-occupied households have the highestaverage household income (at £49,496 per annum) and overcrowded households the lowest (at£27,799 per annum). If these figures are adjusted depending on the number of persons in thehouseholds this trend is exacerbated. Overcrowded households have an average income per personof only £5,582; this figure rises to £27,904 for households who are under-occupying.PAGE 158

17. Overcrowding and under-occupationOvercrowded/under-occupiedTable 17.3 Overcrowding/under-occupancy and incomeAveragegross annualincomeAveragenumber ofpersons inhouseholdsAverageincome perpersonOvercrowded £27,799 4.98 £5,582Neither overcrowded nor under-occupied £45,120 1.92 £23,490Under-occupied £49,496 1.77 £27,904TOTAL £45,587 1.97 £23,110Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200617.5 Moving intentions of under-occupying householdsFinally this section looks at any moving intentions of overcrowded and under-occupied households.The table below shows the number and proportion of households in each group who need or expectto move home within the next two years.The analysis suggests that overcrowded households are most likely to need/expect to move. In totalan estimated 59.5% of overcrowded households need or expect to move within the next two years,this compares with only 7.3% of households who currently under-occupy their dwelling.Table 17.4 Moving intentions of overcrowded and under-occupying householdsOvercrowded/under-occupiedNumberneed/expectto moveTotal h’holds% needing/expecting tomoveOvercrowded 1,815 3,052 59.5%Neither overcrowded nor under-occupied 23,921 85,903 27.8%Under-occupied 1,702 23,441 7.3%TOTAL 27,438 112,395 24.4%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 200617.6 SummaryThis brief chapter looked at overcrowding and under-occupation. The results suggest that 2.7% ofall households are overcrowded and 20.9% under-occupy their dwelling. The owner-occupied (nomortgage) sector shows the highest levels of under-occupation; the Council rented sector has thehighest level of overcrowding.Overcrowded households tend to have low incomes (per person) and are far more likely to state thatthey need or expect to move than other households.PAGE 159


GLOSSARYGLOSSARYAffordabilityA measure of whether households can access and sustain the cost of private sector housing. Thereare two main types of affordability measure: mortgage and rental. Mortgage affordability assesseswhether households would be eligible for a mortgage; rental affordability measures whether ahousehold can afford private rental. Mortgage affordability is based on conditions set by mortgagelenders – using standard lending multipliers (2.9 times joint income or 3.5 times single income(whichever the higher)). Rental affordability is defined as the rent being less than a proportion of ahousehold’s gross income (in this case 25% of gross income).Affordable housingHousing of an adequate standard which is cheaper than that which is generally available in the localhousing market. In theory this can comprise a combination of subsidised rented housing andsubsidised low-cost home ownership (LCHO) including shared ownership.Annual needThe combination of new needs arising per year plus an allowance to deal progressively with part ofthe backlog of need.AverageThe term ‘average’ when used in this report is taken to be a mean value unless otherwise stated.Backlog of needHouseholds whose current housing circumstances at a point in time fall below accepted minimumstandards. This would include households living in overcrowded conditions, in unfit or seriouslydefective housing, families sharing, and homeless people living in temporary accommodation orsharing with others.DisaggregationBreaking a numerical assessment of housing need and supply down, either in terms of size and/ortype of housing unit, or in terms of geographical sub-areas within the City.PAGE 161

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Grossing-upConverting the numbers of actual responses in a social survey to an estimate of the number for thewhole population. This normally involves dividing the expected number in a group by the numberof responses in the survey.HouseholdOne person living alone or a group of people who have the address as their only or main residenceand who either share one meal a day or share a living room.Household formationThe process whereby individuals in the population form separate households. ‘Gross’ or ‘new’household formation refers to households which form over a period of time, conventionally oneyear. This is equal to the number of households existing at the end of the year which did not exist asseparate households at the beginning of the year (not counting ‘successor’ households, when theformer head of household dies or departs).Housing market areaThe geographical area in which a substantial majority of the employed population both live andwork, and where most of those changing home without changing employment choose to stay.Housing needThe situation in which households lack their own housing or are living in housing which isinadequate or unsuitable and who are unlikely to be able to meet their needs in the housing marketwithout some assistance.Housing RegisterA database of all individuals or households who have applied to a LA or RSL for a social tenancyor access to some other form of affordable housing. Housing Registers, often called Waiting Lists,may include not only people with general needs but people with support needs or requiring accessbecause of special circumstances, including homelessness.PAGE 162

GLOSSARYIntermediate HousingHousing provided for households in work who are able to pay a social rent without relying onhousing benefit, but unable to afford to buy at the lowest decile point of local house prices. This cantypically be shared equity where a proportion of the property is bought and the other proportion inrented, normally from an RSL.MigrationThe movement of people between geographical areas, primarily defined in this context as localauthority areas. The rate of migration is usually measured as an annual number of households,living in the City at a point in time, who are not resident in that City one year earlier.Net annual needThe difference between annual need and the expected annual supply of available affordable housingunits (e.g. from the re-letting of existing social rented dwellings).Newly arising needNew households which are expected to form over a period of time and are likely to require someform of assistance to gain suitable housing, together with other existing households whosecircumstances change over the period so as to place them in a situation of need (e.g. householdslosing accommodation because of loss of income, relationship breakdown, eviction, or some otheremergency).OvercrowdingAn overcrowded dwelling is one which is below the bedroom standard. (See 'Bedroom Standard'above).Potential householdsAdult individuals, couples or lone parent families living as part of other households of which theyare neither the head nor the partner of the head and who need to live in their own separateaccommodation, and/or are intending to move to separate accommodation, rather than continuing tolive with their ‘host’ household.PAGE 163

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Random sampleA sample in which each member of the population has an equal chance of selection.ReletsSocial rented housing units which are vacated during a period and become potentially available forletting to new tenants.Sample surveyCollects information from a known proportion of a population, normally selected at random, inorder to estimate the characteristics of the population as a whole.Sampling frameThe complete list of addresses or other population units within the survey area which are the subjectof the survey.Social rented housingHousing of an adequate standard which is provided to rent at below market cost for households inneed by Local Authorities or Registered Social Landlords (RSLs).Stratified sampleA sample where the population or area is divided into a number of separate sub-sectors (‘strata’)according to known characteristics, based for example on sub-areas and applying a differentsampling fraction to each sub-sector.Under-occupationAn under-occupied dwelling is one which exceeds the bedroom standard by two or more bedrooms.Unsuitably housed householdsAll circumstances where households are living in housing which is in some way unsuitable, whetherbecause of its size, type, design, location, condition or cost.PAGE 164

Appendix A1 Further property price informationAppendix A1 Further property price informationA1.1 IntroductionThis Chapter provides further detail in support of the housing market analysis set out in Chapter 5.It contains information on prices obtained from the analysis of Land Registry property price data,and explains the methodology and approach used in our survey of local estate agents.The estate agent survey is a key step in assessing minimum and average property prices inWestminster but only provides limited information concerning price difference within the City, anddoesn’t shed light on the prices relative to other Local Authorities in the region.We can look at the wider context of prices in the surrounding areas, and also the differencesbetween areas within Westminster, using information available from the Land Registry. This data isvaluable in giving further background to the local housing market, although it does not displace theneed for the estate agent information.A1.2 Reasons for housing market studyThe level of market prices and rents is a key factor in this study for two main reasons:(i) Market prices and rents indicate the cost of market housing in Westminster. A major reasonfor government interest in prices is to address the needs of households that cannot affordthis cost. Hence the existence of social rented housing and low-cost home ownershipoptions. Thus it is important to establish the entry levels to both home ownership andprivate renting.(ii) The price/rent information indicates the contours of the housing market in Westminster.This is important for the Council when considering not only the level of subsidy required toproduce new social rented and other non-market priced housing, but also the degree towhich it should attempt to manage the new-build market in accordance with governmentguidance.This chapter is devoted to identifying the first of the above elements: the cost of housing.PAGE 165

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006A1.3 Background to housing market analysisAs a preliminary to the present phase of the work it is desirable to draw attention to some keyfeatures of housing markets:(i) Housing markets are quite complex. Housing markets can be defined, at the larger scale,by such features as journey to work areas. In the case of free-standing market towns thesemay appear as fairly neat circular areas. In most of Britain, however, the high density ofpopulation means that housing market areas overlap.In the extreme case of London, its market area extends for some purposes as far away asYork, Milton Keynes, Bristol and the South Coast. At the same time there are well definedmarket areas within London (east v west; north v south of the river).(ii) Property prices vary within market areas. Depending on the attractiveness of the area,property prices may vary considerably within a few miles or even, in large cities, within afew hundred yards. This is due to the history of the area and the nature of the housing stock.These variations are important from the point of view of housing cost analysis, whichunderpins the study of subsidised forms of housing. It is important to know what the entrylevel costs of housing are. These can only be established by close study of detailed localprice variations.(iii) New build is only a small fraction of the market. In almost all parts of Britain, new buildis a small fraction of the total housing market. The majority of all sales and lettings aresecond-hand. The important point to note in this is that second-hand housing is normallymuch cheaper than new build. Only at the luxury end of the market is this not true. Thusentry level housing will normally be second-hand.Although Government guidance refers to some forms of new build as ‘affordable’ verylittle new build is anything like as affordable as existing second-hand housing.These features of the housing market are worth bearing in mind when considering the detailedevidence produced in the following subsections of this chapter.A1.4 Government guidance on the study of housing marketsThe Guide makes several references to market studies:PAGE 166

Appendix A1 Further property price information‘The relevance of data on private sector housing costs stems primarily from therole of such data in facilitating analyses of affordability, which are central to mostlocal housing needs assessment models. The essential feature of such models isthat they measure the extent to which a given group of households can afford tomeet their housing needs through the private market. Generally, most attention isfocused on the price of properties for sale. However, some models also takeaccount of private sector rent levels’. [Section 7.3 (page 94)]ODPMGuide‘Typically, local authorities can draw on two or three sources of house priceinformation. These include; direct contacts with local estate agents; county-widemonitoring by county councils; local or regional data available in published orunpublished form from the major national mortgage lenders (particularly Halifaxand Nationwide); and data from the Land Registry’. [Section 7.3 (page 95)]‘An alternative approach to defining current threshold prices is to deriveappropriate figures in consultation with local estate agents. Although it appearsmore subjective, this latter approach has a number of advantages. Firstly, itenables properties in poor condition to be screened out. Secondly, it is better ableto reflect the whole market rather than being limited to the market share of themortgage lender concerned. Lastly and most importantly, the properties can bespecified in terms of size and type, matched to particular household types’.[Section 4.3 (page 58)]These extracts say, in summary:(i) Housing market information is essential to the assessment of affordability.(ii) There are various secondary and primary sources for such information.(iii) There are some advantages to the primary data route: obtaining information directly fromestate agents, since that reflects the true entry cost of housing, and is not particular to onemortgage source.The best route to meeting these requirements is a combination of secondary data (the Land Registry,which covers all transactions) and estate agents survey.In keeping with comments above, we concentrate upon price variations rather than the study of thewhole market. This is because in terms of affordability of local housing, the important factor is itsprice, not its location relative to wider housing markets.A1.5 The need for primary dataThere are four main reasons why Land Registry data cannot be used to calculate prices for use inthe affordability model. These are:PAGE 167

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006i) The information can only usefully give a guide to average prices. For a Housing NeedsSurvey we take the view that it is necessary to estimate the minimum price for whichdwellings in satisfactory condition are available.ii) No information is available about the condition of the dwellings whose price is beingobtained. Clearly a property which needs major repairs is unlikely to be suitable for a firsttimebuyer with a limited budget, even if the initial price is relatively low.iii) A more serious limitation of this source is that records are kept by property type (i.e.detached, semi-detached, terraced, flat) and not in terms of the numbers of bedrooms. Thisinformation is, in our view, essential to provide an accurate assessment of need.iv) The Land Registry data cannot produce information about rental levels, which again oughtreally to be considered in carrying out a satisfactory analysis of affordability. There may bea small, but significant, number of households who cannot afford to buy market housing butwho could afford suitable private rented housing. The affordability of such householdscannot be adequately considered using only sale price information.Despite these drawbacks the information available is certainly of interest to give some feel to thelocal context of property prices, and more specifically to provide comparison between prices indifferent areas.A1.6 Estate agents survey: MethodologyThe methodology employed to find purchase and rental prices takes the following steps:i) We establish the names and telephone numbers of local estate agents. This includes wellknown national estate agents as well as those operating specifically in the local area(allowing for good comparative measures of smaller and larger agencies). The estate agentsselected are intended to be those dealing primarily with housing at the lower end of themarket (e.g. not specialist agencies dealing with up-market properties)ii) These are then contacted by telephone and asked to give a brief overview of the housingmarket in the City - including highlighting areas of more and less expensive housingiii) The questioning takes a very simple form (this tends to improve efficiency withoutjeopardising results - people often lose interest when asked a series of detailed questionsand quality of response is diminished). All agents are asked ‘in their opinion’PAGE 168

Appendix A1 Further property price information‘What is the minimum and average price for a one bedroom dwelling in goodcondition (i.e. not needing any major repair) and with a reasonable supply (not oneoff properties occasionally coming onto the market)?’iv) This process is repeated for 2, 3 & 4 bedroom dwellingsv) The same questions are then asked about private rented accommodationvi) Once several estate and letting agencies have been contacted, the results are tabulated andaverages calculated to give an accurate estimation of minimum and average purchase andrental prices in the City. Any outlying values are removed from calculations.vii) The estimated purchase and rental prices are then inserted into the analysis to estimate thenumbers able to afford a dwelling depending on the minimum number of bedrooms that thehousehold requires.A1.7 Land Registry dataThe Land Registry compiles information on all residential land transactions. Analysis of this data ismade available for recent quarterly periods, for geographical areas including Council areas, andmore highly disaggregated data postcode areas, and by four main dwelling types.This data is thus very versatile, and can potentially provide a valuable picture of housing marketbehaviour in quite specific detail. However, an eye needs to be kept on the size of sample whenusing disaggregated data for smaller areas and/or periods.We used the data to provide several useful views of the housing market in and around Westminster.These are considered below.A1.8 Comparing prices in neighbouring areasThe Land Registry data can be used to show how prices in Westminster compared to those innearby and adjoining local authority areas. The table below shows average sale prices for the LocalAuthorities adjoining Westminster (from the most recent quarter available from the Land Registry).PAGE 169

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Table A1.1 Average property prices by Local Authority (4th quarter 2005)(number of sales in brackets)PropertytypeWestminsterK & CWandsworthCamdenLambethBrentCitySouthwarkEngland & WalesDetached£1,761,000 - £1,386,533 - £543,166 £491,499 - £667,272 £293,248(5) - (15) - (24) (29) - (11) (5,425)Semi– £2,281,363 £2,471,000 £599,143 £1,309,241 £395,015 £338,054 - £416,907 £174,744detached (11) (10) (94) (30) (61) (187) - (67) (7,315)Terraced£1,085,436 £1,678,263 £440,577 £718,403 £356,178 £313,463 - £306,568 £149,906(92) (121) (459) (93) (307) (183) - (238) (8,453)Flat/£516,384 £528,120 £257,845 £344,182 £230,961 £202,114 £328,241 £248,255 £173,915maisonette (942) (575) (1,059) (669) (874) (391) (54) (669) (4,684)Overall £590,661 £752,760 £339,521 £424,680 £275,149 £270,709 £328,241 £278,496 £191,324average (1,050) (706) (1,627) (792) (1,266) (790) (54) (985) (25,876)Source: HM Land Registry, property price data, 2006The overall average price figures for each Borough (e.g. Westminster at £590,661) show that inmost Boroughs the property prices are notably more expensive than the England and Wales averageof £191,324. There is a degree of variation amongst the prices in the area. Brent has the lowest(£270,709) and Kensington & Chelsea has the highest (£752,760) average price.A1.9 Historical results for WestminsterWe will now examine in more detail information from the Land Registry for Westminster. The tablebelow shows data for sales over the last five years. The data for each case is the 4th quarter of theyear.PAGE 170

Appendix A1 Further property price informationTable A1.2 Average property prices in Westminster – 2000 to 2005 (4th quarters)(Number of sales in brackets)Property type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005DetachedSemi-detachedTerracedFlat/maisonetteOVERALL£1,455,718 £1,140,399 £1,452,335 - £1,859,600 £1,761,000(8) (14) (16) - (5) (5)£897,416 £587,839 £1,193,271 £1,321,228 £2,338,333 £2,281,363(12) (19) (10) (7) (6) (11)£918,697 £866,065 £802,800 £1,005,484 £1,074,716 £1,085,436(110) (130) (139) (146) (86) (92)£358,047 £357,847 £392,588 £411,229 £433,245 £516,384(1448) (1222) (1391) (1401) (960) (942)£406,796 £416,615 £445,276 £471,159 £502,998 £590,661(1,578) (1,385) (1,556) (1,554) (1,057) (1,050)Source: HM Land Registry, property price data, 2006The overall average sale price was roughly £81,000 higher in the 4th quarter of 2005 than the 4thquarter of 2004. Over the five year period prices have risen by an average of £183,865. The numberof sales was at its highest in 2000-2003, but has fallen by around 500 over the last 2 years.A1.10 Differences within Westminster(i) General methodologyThe general methodology is quite straightforward. We have drawn up a list of the main postcodesectors within the City, and mapped where these postcodes are. The table below gives a briefdescription of which postcodes apply to which areas of Westminster.It should be noted that the local authority boundaries are not always coterminous with postcodes.Therefore some properties in a postcode may be outside the area; in addition it is possible that someparts of the City are in a postcode zone that is predominantly located outside the Local Authorityarea, and are therefore excluded from analysis.This means that the data by sub-area is only a guide to actual variations within Westminster. Due tothe sheer amount of postcodes in the council area this table shows approximations of postcodesectors.PAGE 171

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Area descriptionTable A1.3 Approximate sub-areas and postcodesPostcode(s)North W9, W10, W2, NW1, NW 8Centre-WestW1J, W1K, SW7, SW1XCentralW1B, W1F, W1H, W1U, W1G, W1W, W1T,W1D, WC2H, WC2E, WC2R, WC2B,WC2D, SW1Y, SW1A,SouthSW1W, SW1E, SW1P, SW1V, SW1HSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Figure A1.1 Approximate sub-areasSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table above shows 28 different postcode sectors in four different sub-areas, but across thewhole Westminster area there are over 70 separate postcode sector areas. This gives us theopportunity to compare prices across the Westminster area.PAGE 172

Appendix A1 Further property price information(ii) Results by sub-areaIn the table below, average property prices are shown for each type of property for each sub-area. Itis necessary to bear in mind that in some areas the number of sales in some cells of the table arequite small and the average price shown may be less reliable as a consequence. Where the cellshave no values, this is due to no properties of this type selling in the time-period, and therefore noaverage price can be ascertained.Table A1.4 Average property prices by sub-area (4th quarter 2005)(Number of sales in brackets)Property type Centre-West North Central SouthDetachedSemi-detachedTerracedFlat/maisonetteAverage- - - -- - - -- £2,260,000 - -- (7) - -£1,309,285 £847,291 - £828,836(7) (31) - (20)£1,910,114 £365,560 £518,410 £1,354,562(66) (458) (74) (60)£1,852,500 £422,404 £518,410 £1,223,130(73) (496) (74) (80)Source: HM Land Registry, property price data, 2006The table demonstrates that highest property prices are to be found in the Centre-West and thelowest prices to be found in the North area. In all areas flats/maisonettes had the largest proportionof sales, with the Central area only recording sales of this property type. In Westminster as a wholesemi-detached properties were only sold in the North in this time period, and no detached propertieswere sold. This price distribution is consistent with primary data obtained from local agentspresented in Chapter 5 of the report.A1.11 List of Estate AgentsThese Estate Agents were contacted during our Survey of Estate Agents:• Dauntons, 8 Denbigh Street, Pimlico, SW1V 2ER• Oakleys, 243 Baker St, NW1 6XE• Hathaways,12 Greycoat Place, SW1P 1SB• George Weston, 51 Maida Vale, W9 1SD• Venice Property, 412 Edgware Rd, W2 1ED• Foundation Real Estate, 374 Harrow Rd, W9 2HUPAGE 173

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006• Winkworth, 16 Spring St, Paddington, W2 3RA• Kinleigh, Folkard & Hayward, 23 Leinster Terrace, Bayswater, W2 3ET• Castlereagh Properties, 87 York St, Marylebone, W1H 4QB• Stylish Home Co, Hyde Park Mansions, Cabbell St, NW1 5AZ• Alexanders, 35 Ivor Place, NW1 6EA.PAGE 174

Appendix A2 Supporting informationAppendix A2 Supporting informationA2.1 Non-response and missing dataMissing data is a feature of all housing surveys: mainly due to a respondent’s refusal to answer aparticular question (e.g. income). For all missing data in the survey imputation procedures wereapplied. In general, throughout the survey the level of missing data was minimal. The mainexception to this was in relation to financial information, where there was an appreciable (althoughtypical) level of non-response.Non-response can cause a number of problems:• The sample size is effectively reduced so that applying the calculated weight will not giveestimates for the whole population• Variables which are derived from the combination of a number of responses each of which maybe affected by item non-response (e.g. collecting both respondent and their partners incomeseparately) may exhibit high levels of non-response• If the amount of non-response substantially varies across sub-groups of the population this maylead to a bias of the resultsTo overcome these problems missing data was ‘imputed’. Imputation involves substituting for themissing value, a value given by a suitably defined ‘similar’ household, where the definition ofsimilar varies depending on the actual item being imputed.The specific method used was to divide the sample into sub-groups based on relevant characteristicsand then ‘Probability Match’ where a value selected from those with a similar predicted value wasimputed. The main sub-groups used were tenure, household size and age of respondent.PAGE 175

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006A2.2 Weighting dataThe survey data was weighted to estimated profiles of households based on various secondarysources of information. The tables below show the final estimates of the number of households ineach group (for 7 different variables) along with the number of actual survey responses. Although insome cases it is clear that the proportion of survey responses is close to the ‘expected’ situation(according to 2001 Census/HSSA data/Council tax register) there are others where it is clear thatthe weighting of data was necessary to ensure that the results as presented are reflective of thehousehold population of the City of Westminster.TenureTable A2.1 Number of households in each tenure groupTotalnumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNumber ofreturns% of returnsOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 21,668 19.3% 245 20.1%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 27,451 24.4% 263 21.6%Council 12,197 10.9% 265 21.8%RSL 12,477 11.1% 152 12.5%Private rented 38,602 34.3% 293 24.1%TOTAL 112,395 100.0% 1,218 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Accommodation typeTable A2.2 Accommodation type profileEstimatedhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNumber ofreturns% of returnsHouse 12,452 11.1% 161 12.8%Purpose built flats 68,089 60.6% 1,001 79.4%Other 31,854 28.3% 99 7.9%TOTAL 112,395 100.0% 1,261 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Cars ownedEstimatedhouseholdsTable A2.3 Car ownership% of householdsNumber ofreturns% of returnsNone 62,375 55.5% 503 39.9%One 40,309 35.9% 481 38.1%Two 8,016 7.1% 272 21.6%Three or more 1,694 1.5% 5 0.4%TOTAL 112,395 100.0% 1,261 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 176

Appendix A2 Supporting informationHousehold typeTable A2.4 Household type profileEstimatedhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNumber ofreturns% of returnsSingle pensioner 15,914 14.2% 138 10.9%2 or more pensioners 3,938 3.5% 87 6.9%Single non-pensioner 39,032 34.7% 163 12.9%Other households 53,511 47.6% 873 69.2%TOTAL 112,395 100.0% 1,261 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006WardTable A2.5 Ward profileEstimatedhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNumber ofreturns% of returnsAbbey Road 6,218 5.5% 49 3.9%Bayswater 5,749 5.1% 125 9.9%Bryanston & Dorset Square 7,200 6.4% 23 1.8%Church Street 4,054 3.6% 110 8.7%Churchill 3,772 3.4% 37 2.9%Harrow Road 5,587 5.0% 50 4.0%Hyde Park 7,689 6.8% 139 11.0%Knightsbridge & Belgravia 5,426 4.8% 131 10.4%Lancaster Gate 6,902 6.1% 53 4.2%Little Venice 4,850 4.3% 50 4.0%Maida Vale 4,416 3.9% 48 3.8%Marylebone High Street 6,260 5.6% 66 5.2%Queen's Park 4,106 3.7% 33 2.6%Regent's Park 7,027 6.3% 45 3.6%St James's 5,901 5.3% 71 5.6%Tachbrook 5,336 4.7% 81 6.4%Vincent Square 4,760 4.2% 21 1.7%Warwick 4,533 4.0% 31 2.5%West End 7,127 6.3% 29 2.3%Westbourne 5,482 4.9% 69 5.5%TOTAL 112,395 100.0% 1,261 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 177

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Number of peoplein householdEstimatedhouseholdsTable A2.6 Household size% ofhouseholdsNumber ofreturns% of returnsOne 54,946 48.9% 301 23.9%Two 31,566 28.1% 439 34.8%Three 12,583 11.2% 220 17.4%Four 8,200 7.3% 191 15.1%Five 3,399 3.0% 82 6.5%Six or more 1,700 1.5% 28 2.2%TOTAL 112,395 100.0% 1,261 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Ethnicity of household headTable A2.7 Ethnicity profileEstimatedhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNumber ofreturns% of returnsWhite 88,030 78.3% 758 60.1%Mixed 3,021 2.7% 98 7.8%Asian 7,213 6.4% 103 8.2%Black 7,777 6.9% 166 13.2%Chinese or Other 6,353 5.7% 136 10.8%TOTAL 112,395 100.0% 1,261 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 178

Appendix A3 Balancing housing market analysisAppendix A3 Balancing housing market analysisA3.1 IntroductionThe following tables show the detailed analysis for the six components contributing to theBalancing Housing Market Analysis presented in Chapter 12 of this report.A3.2 Analysis of City of Westminster dataThe first table shows an estimate of the housing requirements of potential households. The table isbased on the number of potential households who need or expect to form over the next five yearswithin the City along with estimates about affordability and stated size requirement. Any potentialhouseholds who would both like and expect to move from the City are excluded from this analysis.Figures are annualised.Table A3.1 Demand I: Household formation by tenure and size requiredTenureSize requirement1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTOTALOwner-occupation 29 188 0 0 217Affordable housing 596 330 9 0 936Private rented 10 23 0 0 33TOTAL 635 541 9 0 1,185Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows the estimated demand from in-migrant households. This is based on theprofile of households who have moved into the City over the past two years (in terms ofaffordability and size/type of accommodation secured). The data is constrained so as to provide the‘balance’ in the model (i.e. to keep the estimated household growth to 680 dwellings/households perannum). Figures are again annualised.Table A3.2 Demand II: Demand from in-migrants by tenure and sizerequiredSize requirementTenureTOTAL1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsOwner-occupation 0 115 434 49 597Affordable housing 402 579 806 10 1,797Private rented 345 107 107 10 569TOTAL 746 800 1,347 69 2,963Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 179

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006The table below shows estimated future demand from existing households. The figures are based onwhat tenure and size of accommodation households would like or expect to move to in the future(next two years) along with considerations of affordability. Figures are again annualised.Table A3.3 Demand III: Demand from existing households by tenure andsize requiredTenureSize requirement1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTOTALOwner-occupation 95 570 719 144 1,528Affordable housing 520 1,191 643 52 2,407Private rented 0 191 4 0 195TOTAL 615 1,952 1,366 196 4,130Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below is an overall summary of the demand situation and is calculated as the sum of thethree previous tables.TenureTable A3.4 Demand IV: Total demand by tenure and size requiredSize requirement1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTOTALOwner-occupation 124 873 1,153 193 2,342Affordable housing 1,518 2,100 1,459 63 5,139Private rented 355 321 111 10 797TOTAL 1,996 3,294 2,723 266 8,278Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below provides an estimate of the likely future supply of accommodation (by tenure andsize) from household dissolutions (i.e. death). The table is based on applying age specific nationalmortality statistics (2001) to the local population to estimate the proportion of households who arelikely to wholly dissolve each year.TenureTable A3.5 Supply I: Supply from household dissolutionSize released1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTOTALOwner-occupation 57 148 204 2 411Affordable housing 270 52 7 0 329Private rented 35 46 4 0 85TOTAL 362 246 215 2 825Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 180

Appendix A3 Balancing housing market analysisThe table below shows an estimate of the supply of housing that would be released whenhouseholds who would like and expect to move from the City do so. For example a household outmigratingfrom a four bedroom owner-occupied dwelling is assumed to free-up a four bedroomowner-occupied dwelling for use by another household. The data is annualised and based on movesover the next two years.TenureTable A3.6 Supply II: Supply from out-migrant householdsSize released1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTOTALOwner-occupation 81 70 238 94 483Affordable housing 4 92 8 11 115Private rented 723 864 364 94 2,045TOTAL 808 1,025 611 199 2,643Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows estimated future supply from existing households. As with the above datathe figures are based on the type and size of accommodation that would become available if ahousehold moved to alternative accommodation. Figures are annualised from data for two years.TenureTable A3.7 Supply III: Supply from existing householdsSize released1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTOTALOwner-occupation 320 476 223 24 1,043Affordable housing 261 199 63 14 538Private rented 1,577 591 368 13 2,549TOTAL 2,158 1,267 654 51 4,130Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below is the sum of the three previous tables and shows the overall estimated annualsupply for each tenure and size group.TenureTable A3.8 Supply IV: Total supplySize released1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTOTALOwner-occupation 458 694 666 120 1,937Affordable housing 535 343 79 24 981Private rented 2,335 1,501 736 107 4,679TOTAL 3,328 2,538 1,480 251 7,598Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 181


Appendix A4 Health and housingAppendix A4 Health and housingA4.1 IntroductionThe survey estimates that there are 4,839 households in which the health of a household member issuffering because of the condition of the home. This appendix briefly examines the characteristicsof these households in an attempt to identify any factors that are particularly prevalent.A4.2 TenureThe table below shows the housing tenures of households in which the health of a householdmember is suffering because of the condition of the home, in comparison to the tenure profile ofother households in the City.The table indicates that ‘ill health’ households are much more likely to be living in social rentedaccommodation and are less likely to be living in private rented accommodation. Only 10.4% of ‘illhealth’ households live in private rented accommodation compared to 35.4% of other households inCity of Westminster. ‘Ill health’ households are over twice as likely as other households to beresident in the social rented sector.TenureTable A4.1 Tenure of households whose home condition is causing ill healthHouseholds suffering fromill healthNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 878 18.1% 20,789 19.3%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 1,128 23.3% 26,323 24.5%Council 823 17.0% 11,374 10.6%RSL 1,505 31.1% 10,972 10.2%Private rented 504 10.4% 38,098 35.4%TOTAL 4,839 100.0% 107,556 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A4.3 Dwelling characteristicsThe table below shows the type of accommodation inhabited by households in which the health of ahousehold member is suffering because of the condition of the home.PAGE 183

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006The data indicates that ‘ill health’ households are much more likely than other households in theCity to be living in flats and are less likely to live in houses. ‘Ill health’ households are particularlylikely to be living in other flats/maisonettes.Table A4.2 Dwelling type of households whose home condition is causing ill healthDwelling typeHouseholds suffering fromill healthNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsDetached house/bungalow* 51 1.1% 697 0.6%Semi-detached house/bungalow 27 0.6% 2,777 2.6%Terraced house/bungalow 102 2.1% 9,064 8.4%Purpose-built flat/maisonette 2,856 59.0% 65,233 60.7%Other flat/maisonette** 1,804 37.3% 29,785 27.7%TOTAL 4,839 100.0% 107,556 100.0%* Includes mobile homes*Other flat/maisonette includes flats that are part of a converted or shared house and flats in a commercialbuildingSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A4.4 Geographical locationThe table below shows the geographical distribution of households in which the health of ahousehold member is suffering because of the condition of the home. The table indicates that ‘illhealth’ households are particularly likely to live in the North and South sub-areas.Table A4.3 Location of households whose home condition is causing ill healthSub-areaHouseholds suffering fromill healthNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNorth West 1,270 26.2% 22,808 21.2%North 1,463 30.2% 16,197 15.1%Central strip 604 12.5% 33,197 30.9%South Central 329 6.8% 18,125 16.9%South 1,172 24.2% 17,229 16.0%TOTAL 4,839 100.0% 107,556 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 184

Appendix A4 Health and housingA4.5 Household compositionThe table below indicates the size of households in which the health of a household member issuffering because of the condition of the home. The data shows that these households are less likelyto contain one person and are more likely to contain three or more people than other households inthe City of Westminster.Table A4.4 Size of households whose home condition is causing ill healthNumber of persons in householdHouseholds suffering fromill healthNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsOne 1,671 34.5% 53,275 49.5%Two 1,895 39.2% 29,671 27.6%Three 735 15.2% 11,849 11.0%Four 403 8.3% 7,797 7.2%Five 78 1.6% 3,321 3.1%Six or more 57 1.2% 1,643 1.5%TOTAL 4,839 100.0% 107,556 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows the type of households in which the health of a household member issuffering because of the condition of the home. The results clearly indicate that ‘ill health’households are more likely to contain pensioners than other households. Overall some 10.5% of ‘illhealth’ households are lone parent households compared to 2.2% of other households in the City.Table A4.5 Type of households whose home condition is causing ill healthHousehold typeHouseholds suffering fromill healthNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsSingle Pensioner 1,138 23.5% 14,776 13.7%2 or more pensioners 570 11.8% 3,368 3.1%Single non-pensioner 532 11.0% 38,500 35.8%2 or more adults, no children 1,784 36.9% 33,544 31.2%Lone parent 509 10.5% 2,387 2.2%2+ adults, 1 or more children 178 3.7% 7,305 6.8%2+ adults, 2+ children 128 2.6% 7,677 7.1%TOTAL 4,839 100.0% 107,556 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 185

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006A4.6 Support needs and ethnicityThe table below shows the presence of support needs members in households in which the health ofa household member is suffering because of the condition of the home. The results indicate that ‘illhealth’ households are far more likely to contain a member with support needs than otherhouseholds in the City.Table A4.6 Households whose home condition is causing ill health and support needsSupport needs householdsHouseholds suffering fromill healthNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsSupport needs 1,623 33.5% 11,348 10.6%No support needs 3,216 66.5% 96,208 89.5%TOTAL 4,839 100.0% 107,556 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows the ethnicity of households in which the health of a household member issuffering because of the condition of the home. The results clearly indicate that ‘ill health’households are less likely to be White than other households and are particularly likely to be Asianor Black.Table A4.7 Ethnicity of households whose home condition is causing ill healthEthnic groupHouseholds suffering fromill healthNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsWhite - British 2,653 54.8% 63,268 58.8%White - Irish 163 3.4% 4,751 4.4%White - Other 536 11.1% 16,659 15.5%Mixed 26 0.5% 2,995 2.8%Asian or Asian British 598 12.4% 6,615 6.2%Black or Black British - African 297 6.1% 5,307 4.9%Black or Black British - Other 311 6.4% 1,862 1.7%Arab 233 4.8% 4,206 3.9%Any other ethnic group 22 0.5% 1,892 1.8%TOTAL 4,839 100.0% 107,556 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 186

Appendix A4 Health and housingA4.7 Overcrowding/under-occupationThe table below shows the incidence of overcrowding and under-occupation in households in whichthe health of a household member is suffering because of the condition of the home. The resultsshow that ‘ill health’ households are over four times more likely to be overcrowded than other Cityof Westminster households. They are also much less likely to be under-occupied.Table A4.8 Overcrowding/under-occupancy and households whose home condition iscausing ill healthOvercrowding/under-occupationHouseholds suffering fromill healthNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsOvercrowded 485 10.0% 2,566 2.4%Neither overcrowded nor under-occupied 3,858 79.7% 82,045 76.3%Under-occupied 496 10.3% 22,945 21.3%TOTAL 4,839 100.0% 107,556 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A4.8 SummaryThe survey estimates that there are 4,839 households in which the health of a household member issuffering because of the condition of the home. This appendix briefly examined the characteristicsof these households and found that these households are likely to:• reside in the social rented sector• inhabit a non-purpose built flat• live in the North and South sub-areas• be large (contain three or more people)• be lone parent households• contain a support needs member• be headed by a non-White person• be overcrowded.PAGE 187


Appendix A5 Attitudes to the local areaAppendix A5 Attitudes to the local areaA5.1 IntroductionThe survey collected information that assessed how satisfied households were with a range ofaspects of their local area. This appendix will briefly present these results.A5.2 Overall satisfactionThe figure below shows the overall satisfaction rating recorded for each aspect the household wasasked to consider. The data indicates that the majority of responses were positive. Households weremost likely to record being dissatisfied with their sense of personal safety and security, but even forthis aspect over 70% of respondents indicated they were satisfied.Figure A5.1 Overall satisfaction levelsLocal shopping facilitiesPost Office/local bank facilitiesHealth facilitiesSchools/educational or training facilitiesLeisure facilitiesParks and children s play areasPublic transportSense of personal safety and securityGeneral area in which you liveYour home in general0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A5.3 Geographical variationsThe following figures show how the satisfaction levels for each aspect measured varies by sub-area.PAGE 189

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure A5.2 Geographical variation in satisfaction with local shopping facilitiesNorth WestNorthCentral stripSouth CentralSouth0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 190

Appendix A5 Attitudes to the local areaFigure A5.3 Geographical variation in satisfaction with Post Office/local bank facilitiesNorth WestNorthCentral stripSouth CentralSouth0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Figure A5.4 Geographical variation in satisfaction with health facilitiesNorth WestNorthCentral stripSouth CentralSouth0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 191

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure A5.5 Geographical variation in satisfaction with schools/educational or trainingfacilitiesNorth WestNorthCentral stripSouth CentralSouth0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Figure A5.6 Geographical variation in satisfaction with leisure facilitiesNorth WestNorthCentral stripSouth CentralSouth0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 192

Appendix A5 Attitudes to the local areaFigure A5.7 Geographical variation in satisfaction with parks and children s play areasNorth WestNorthCentral stripSouth CentralSouth0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Figure A5.8 Geographical variation in satisfaction with public transportNorth WestNorthCentral stripSouth CentralSouth0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 193

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure A5.9 Geographical variation in satisfaction with sense of personal safety andsecurityNorth WestNorthCentral stripSouth CentralSouth0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006Figure A5.10 Geographical variation in satisfaction with general area in which you liveNorth WestNorthCentral stripSouth CentralSouth0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 194

Appendix A5 Attitudes to the local areaFigure A5.11 Geographical variation in satisfaction with your home in generalNorth WestNorthCentral stripSouth CentralSouth0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 195


Appendix A6 Comparisons between Westminster, Haringey and BarnetAppendix A6 Comparisons between Westminster, Haringey andBarnetA6.1 IntroductionAs the surveys for Westminster, Haringey and Barnet were commissioned and undertaken at thesame time by Fordham Research it is possible to compare the housing markets in the three areas. Ofthe three local authorities being studied by Fordham Research, all three are in the North Londonsub-region. Westminster is located in the heart of central London, Barnet to the north (but notadjoining) and Haringey is located directly to the east of Barnet. Differences and similarities thatexist between the household population and housing market of the three areas will be presentedbelow.A6.2 Household compositionInitially it is worth comparing the household profile in the three local authority areas. The tablebelow presents data on household size and household type. It indicates that Westminster contains agreater proportion of one person households and a smaller proportion of large (four or more personhouseholds) than the other two boroughs. Barnet has the largest proportion of four people or morehouseholds.The data also shows that Westminster contains a larger proportion of single non-pensionerhouseholds (34.7% compared to 25.0% in Haringey and 17.1% in Barnet). Haringey has a greaterproportion of lone parents than the other two boroughs put together.PAGE 197

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Table A6.1 Comparison of the household compositionNumber of persons in householdWestminster Haringey BarnetOne 48.9% 35.5% 30.9%Two 28.1% 28.7% 29.5%Three 11.2% 15.6% 16.3%Four 7.3% 11.7% 14.2%Five 3.0% 5.7% 6.4%Six or more 1.5% 2.8% 2.6%Household typeSingle pensioner 14.2% 10.5% 13.8%2 or more pensioners 3.5% 3.9% 7.6%Single non-pensioner 34.7% 25.0% 17.1%2 or more adults, no children 31.4% 32.9% 33.6%Lone parent 2.6% 7.6% 4.1%2+ adults, 1 child 6.7% 8.9% 11.7%2+ adults, 2+ children 6.9% 11.2% 12.1%Source: Westminster, Haringey & Barnet Housing Needs Survey 2006A6.3 Financial informationThe table below compares the mean income, savings and equity for households in the three areas.The data clearly indicates that households in Westminster have considerably larger incomes thanthe other boroughs. Barnet has the highest average savings and equity levelsTable A6.2 Comparison of financial informationWestminster Haringey BarnetAverage annual gross household income(including non-housing benefits)£45,587 £33,301 £33,752Average savings £19,144 £18,855 £26,021Average equity (owner-occupiers only) £266,282 £243,699 £310,960Source: Westminster, Haringey & Barnet Housing Needs Survey 2006A6.4 Housing stock comparisonsThe table below displays a profile of the occupied accommodation in Westminster, Haringey andBarnet, by accommodation type, tenure and dwelling size. The data indicates that accommodationprofile reflects the geography of the local authorities. Westminster, which is more denselypopulated, has a larger proportion of flats, whilst detached and semi-detached houses are far morecommon in Barnet.PAGE 198

Appendix A6 Comparisons between Westminster, Haringey and BarnetThe data indicates that Barnet has a significantly higher proportion of owner-occupied dwellings, at70.8% compared to 49.1% in Haringey and 43.7% in Westminster. Haringey contains a lowerproportion of owner-occupiers with no mortgage. Westminster has the highest proportion of privaterented accommodation at 34.3%, compared to 15.9% in Barnet.The dwelling size profile shows that three bedroom properties are the most common in Barnet, twobedroom homes are most popular in Haringey and one bedroom accommodation is most prevalentin Westminster.Table A6.3 Comparison of dwelling stockWestminster Haringey BarnetAccommodation typeDetached house/bungalow 0.7% 2.4% 11.7%Semi-detached house/bungalow 2.5% 7.8% 31.5%Terraced house/bungalow 8.2% 34.4% 18.4%Purpose-built flat/maisonette 60.5% 25.7% 28.6%Other flat/maisonette 28.1% 29.7% 9.8%TenureOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 19.3% 17.6% 32.0%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 24.4% 31.5% 38.8%Council 10.9% 18.0% 8.6%RSL 11.1% 11.1% 4.7%Private rented 34.3% 21.8% 15.9%Dwelling size1 bedroom 31.1% 28.5% 14.3%2 bedroom 29.3% 31.2% 27.2%3 bedroom 30.4% 26.2% 36.4%4+ bedroom 9.1% 14.0% 22.1%Source: Westminster, Haringey & Barnet Housing Needs Survey 2006A6.5 House pricesHouse price information is crucial to understanding the dynamics of the local housing market.Firstly we will present data on the latest house prices by house type as obtained from Land Registry.Average house price changes between the 4 th quarter of 2000 and the 4th quarter of 2005 arepresented in the figure below. It shows that average property prices are much higher in Westminsterthan the other two boroughs. Westminster had a large increase in property prices between the 4 thquarter 2004 and the 4 th quarter 2005, however prices rose at a much lower rate in Barnet andparticularly in Haringey.PAGE 199

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Figure A6.1 Land Registry overall average price changes 2000 –2004(4 th quarters)£700,000£600,000£500,000WestminsterHaringeyBarnetAverage price£400,000£300,000£200,000£100,000£02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005YearSource: HM Land Registry, property price data, 2006A more accurate comparison of property prices can be obtained by looking at price by propertytype. This is presented in the table below for the 4th quarter of 2005. The data shows that for allproperties other than flats/maisonettes, Westminster is the more expensive area.Table A6.4 Average property prices (4 th quarter 2004)(number of sales in brackets)Property type Westminster Haringey BarnetDetachedSemi–detachedTerracedFlat/maisonette£1,761,000 £909,333 £843,864(5) (6) (104)£2,281,363 £437,305 £387,289(11) (40) (352)£1,085,436 £308,822 £292,017(92) (310) (281)£516,384 £206,301 £205,769(942) (426) (538)Source: HM Land Registry, property price data, 2006PAGE 200

Appendix A6 Comparisons between Westminster, Haringey and BarnetA6.6 Threshold costs for market housingIn both surveys housing need was measured against the size of dwelling required. This meant houseprices by dwelling size had to be collected. In all three boroughs surveys interviews with estateagents were undertaken in an attempt to determine the minimum cost required to access privatesector housing by bedroom size.i) Purchase pricesThe table below shows the minimum property prices in the three areas. The data indicates that forall dwelling sizes, it is much more expensive to buy a home in Westminster, and cheapest inHaringey.Table A6.5 Minimum property pricesSize of property Westminster Haringey Barnet1 bedroom £198,000 £130,000 £154,5002 bedroom £275,000 £167,000 £184,0003 bedroom £370,500 £217,500 £263,5004 bedroom £482,500 £288,000 £330,500Source: Survey of Estate and Lettings Agents (2006)ii) Entry-level private rented costThe minimum monthly cost of private renting is presented in the table below. The data shows thatcosts in Westminster are again higher, and Haringey is the cheapest.Table A6.6 Minimum monthly private rentalSize of property Westminster Haringey Barnet1 bedroom £890 £620 £6902 bedroom £1,290 £785 £8703 bedroom £1,785 £950 £1,1454 bedroom £2,617 £1,165 £1,395Source: Survey of Estate and Lettings Agents (2006)Information garnered from estate agents indicates that the private housing market is more expensivein Westminster. It is worth noting that the relative difference in the costs between the three areas issmaller for private rents.PAGE 201

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006A6.7 Housing market activityIt is also of value to compare the stock turnover rates for the three areas. This is presented in thetable below. The table shows that the turnover rates for social rented are very similar in the threeareas. Westminster displays a lower turnover rate in the owner-occupied sector than the other twoboroughs. The turnover of private rented housing is much greater in all cases, but the turnover inWestminster is the highest at 35.1% compared to 31.0% and 27.5% in Barnet and Haringeyrespectively.Table A6.7 Annual turnover of stock (% of households)Tenure Westminster Haringey BarnetOwner-occupied 1.7% 7.9% 5.2%Private rented 35.1% 27.5% 31.0%Social rented 7.2% 9.0% 9.5%TOTAL 14.4% 14.8% 15.2%Source: Westminster, Haringey & Barnet Housing Needs Survey 2006A6.8 Results of the Basic Needs Assessment ModelThe results produced from the Basic Needs Assessment Model for the annual demand for, andsupply of, affordable housing in each survey is presented in the table below. A comparison of thefigures shows that the net need for affordable housing is highest in Westminster at 5,621 per annumand lowest in Barnet at 5,148 per annum. The overall net demand for affordable housing in the threeauthorities is 15,634 dwellings per year.Table A6.8 Comparison of the affordable housing demand and supplyWestminster Haringey Barnet TotalAnnual demand 6,395 5,884 5,871 18,150Annual supply 774 1,019 723 2,516Overall shortfall (surplus) 5,621 4,865 5,148 15,634Source: Westminster, Haringey & Barnet Housing Needs Survey 2006The dwelling size required by those in housing need, alongside the likely size of the affordablehousing supplied and the net requirement for affordable housing is presented in the tables below foreach local authority. The data indicates that for all areas the largest net need for affordable housingis for one bedroom properties, followed by two bedroom homes. Westminster has the lowest netdemand for four bedroom properties whilst Haringey displays the greatest demand.PAGE 202

Appendix A6 Comparisons between Westminster, Haringey and BarnetTable A6.9 Net need for affordable housing in Westminster bysize () indicates a surplusSize required Need Supply Total1 bedroom 4,553 535 4,0182 bedroom 1,471 160 1,3113 bedroom 321 69 2524+ bedroom 49 9 40TOTAL 6,395 774 5,621Source: Westminster, Haringey & Barnet Housing Needs Survey 2006Table A6.10 Net need for affordable housing in Haringey bysize () indicates a surplusSize required Need Supply Total1 bedroom 2,896 465 2,4312 bedroom 1,825 359 1,4663 bedroom 755 155 6004+ bedroom 408 40 368TOTAL 5,884 1,019 4,865Source: Westminster, Haringey & Barnet Housing Needs Survey 2006Table A6.11 Net need for affordable housing in Barnet by size ()indicates a surplusSize required Need Supply Total1 bedroom 3,125 334 2,7912 bedroom 1,509 212 1,2973 bedroom 893 173 7204+ bedroom 343 4 339TOTAL 5,871 723 5,148Source: Westminster, Haringey & Barnet Housing Needs Survey 2006A6.9 A comparison of imbalances in the whole housing marketAll housing needs surveys undertook a Balancing Housing Markets analysis to suggest the extent towhich supply and demand are ‘balanced’ across tenure and property size. The results of thisanalysis for each area are presented in the tables below.The data shows that there is a shortage of social rented homes and a surplus of private rentedhousing for all accommodation sizes in all of the three areas. All authorities also display a shortageof certain types of homes in the owner-occupied sector. Westminster has a shortage of two or morebedroom properties, Haringey has a shortage of smaller one and two bedroom properties, andBarnet has a shortage of one and four bedroom homes.PAGE 203

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Table A6.12 Balancing housing markets - Westminster total shortfall or (surplus)TenureSize requirement1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTotalOwner-occupation (334) 179 487 73 405Affordable housing 983 1,756 1,380 39 4,158Private rented (1,981) (1,180) (625) (97) (3,882)Total (1,332) 755 1,243 14 680Source: Westminster, Haringey & Barnet Housing Needs Survey 2006TenureTable A6.13 Balancing housing markets - Haringey total shortfall or (surplus)Size requirement1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTotalOwner-occupation 21 229 (138) (139) (27)Affordable housing 1,592 723 551 221 3,088Private rented (1,108) (548) (305) (130) (2,091)Total 504 404 109 (48) 970Source: Westminster, Haringey & Barnet Housing Needs Survey 2006TenureTable A6.14 Balancing housing markets - Barnet total shortfall or (surplus)Size requirement1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTotalOwner-occupation 155 (265) (332) 182 (260)Affordable housing 1,015 793 1,145 454 3,407Private rented (820) (839) (402) (196) (2,257)Total 350 (311) 411 439 890Source: Westminster, Haringey & Barnet Housing Needs Survey 2006A6.10 SummaryThis chapter has compared the findings of the housing needs surveys undertaken in Westminster,Haringey and Barnet. Various characteristics of household population and the housing market ineach of these areas have been presented. Overall it was found that Westminster has the highestincomes but that it is also a more expensive area in which to live, and Haringey has the lowestincomes and the cheapest house prices.However, all areas displayed a high net need for affordable housing, with Westminsterdemonstrating the highest level of need.PAGE 204

Appendix A7 Households with childrenAppendix A7 Households with childrenA7.1 IntroductionThe survey estimates that there are 18,183 households containing children. This appendix brieflyexamines the characteristics of these households.A7.2 TenureThe table below shows the housing tenures of households with children, in comparison to the tenureprofile of other households in the City.The table indicates that households with children are much more likely to be living in owneroccupied (with mortgage) accommodation and are much less likely to be living in private rentedaccommodation. Households with children are also slightly more likely to be resident in the socialrented sector than other households.TenureTable A7.1 Tenure of households with childrenHouseholds with childrenNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 1,287 7.1% 20,381 21.6%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 8,888 48.9% 18,563 19.7%Council 2,677 14.7% 9,520 10.1%RSL 1,747 9.6% 10,730 11.4%Private rented 3,585 19.7% 35,017 37.2%TOTAL 18,183 100.0% 94,212 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A7.3 Dwelling characteristicsThe table below shows the type of accommodation inhabited by households with children. The dataindicates that these households are much more likely than other households in the City to be livingin purpose built flats.PAGE 205

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Dwelling typeTable A7.2 Dwelling type of households with childrenHouseholds with childrenNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsDetached house/bungalow* 87 0.5% 661 0.7%Semi-detached house/bungalow 723 4.0% 2,081 2.2%Terraced house/bungalow 1,918 10.5% 7,248 7.7%Purpose-built flat/maisonette 12,792 70.4% 55,298 58.7%Other flat/maisonette** 2,664 14.7% 28,924 30.7%TOTAL 18,183 100.0% 94,212 100.0%* Includes mobile homes*Other flat/maisonette includes flats that are part of a converted or shared house and flats in a commercialbuildingSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A7.4 Geographical locationThe table below shows the geographical distribution of households with children. The tableindicates that these households are particularly likely to live in the North West area, and are lesslikely than other households to live in all other areas.Sub-areaTable A7.3 Location of households with childrenHouseholds with childrenNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsNorth West 7,210 39.7% 16,869 17.9%North 2,154 11.8% 15,507 16.5%Central strip 4,108 22.6% 29,692 31.5%South Central 2,424 13.3% 16,031 17.0%South 2,288 12.6% 16,113 17.1%TOTAL 18,183 100.0% 94,212 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A7.5 Household compositionThe table below shows that households with children are more likely to contain three or morepeople than other households in the City of Westminster.PAGE 206

Appendix A7 Households with childrenNumber of persons in householdTable A7.4 Size of households with childrenHouseholds with childrenNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsOne - - 54,946 58.3%Two 2,315 12.7% 29,251 31.0%Three 6,244 34.3% 6,340 6.7%Four 5,172 28.4% 3,029 3.2%Five 3,321 18.3% 78 0.1%Six or more 1,132 6.2% 569 0.6%TOTAL 18,183 100.0% 94,212 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows the number of children in households with children. The table shows thatover half of households with children have only one child, an additional 32.1% have two children.Only 14.1% of households with children have more than two children. Overall the averagehousehold with children has 1.64 children.Table A7.5 Number of childrenNumber of households% of householdsOne 9,797 53.9%Two 5,836 32.1%Three 1,888 10.4%Four 652 3.6%Five 10 0.1%TOTAL 18,183 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A7.6 EthnicityThe table below shows the ethnicity of households with children. The results clearly indicate thathouseholds with children are less likely to be White British than the other households in the City.The opposite is true for all non-white households, with the exception of those classing themselvesas being in the other ethnic group. Overall, 43.0% of households with children in the City ofWestminster are headed by a White – British person.Mixed households have the highest average number of children at 2.36 whilst White Other have thelowest at 1.20.PAGE 207

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Ethnic groupTable A7.6 Ethnicity of households with childrenHouseholds with childrenNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsAveragenumberchildrenWhite - British 7,823 43.0% 58,098 61.7% 1.65White - Irish 1,254 6.9% 3,660 3.9% 1.62White - Other 2,466 13.6% 14,730 15.6% 1.20Mixed 1,736 9.5% 1,285 1.4% 2.36Asian or Asian British 1,513 8.3% 5,700 6.1% 1.43Black or Black British - African 1,973 10.9% 3,630 3.9% 1.75Black or Black British - Other 767 4.2% 1,406 1.5% 1.32Arab 570 3.1% 3,869 4.1% 1.87Any other ethnic group 81 0.4% 1,834 1.9% 1.40TOTAL 18,183 100.0% 94,212 100.0% 1.64Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A7.7 Overcrowding/under-occupationThe table below shows the incidence of overcrowding and under-occupation in households withchildren. The results show that these households are much more likely to be overcrowded than theother households in the City and are much less likely to be under-occupied.Table A7.7 Overcrowding/under-occupancy and household’s whose home condition iscausing ill healthOvercrowding/under-occupationHousehold’s with childrenNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsRemaining households inCity of WestminsterNumber ofhouseholds% ofhouseholdsOvercrowded 1,936 10.6% 1,115 1.2%Neither overcrowded nor under-occupied 14,631 80.5% 71,272 75.7%Under-occupied 1,617 8.9% 21,824 23.2%TOTAL 18,183 100.0% 94,212 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A7.8 SummaryThe survey estimates that there are 18,183 households with children in the City of Westminster.This appendix briefly examined the characteristics of these households and found that thesehouseholds are likely to:PAGE 208

Appendix A7 Households with children• reside in the owner-occupied (with mortgage) sector• inhabit a purpose built flat• live in the North West• have a non-White household head• be overcrowded.PAGE 209


Appendix A8 Second Homes in WestminsterAppendix A8 Second Homes in WestminsterA8.1 IntroductionThe survey estimates that there are 4,742 households in Westminster who own second homes. Thisappendix briefly examines the characteristics of these households in an attempt to identify anyfactors that are particularly prevalent, however it is important to remember that this is based on asample size of 40, and therefore should be regarded with some caution.An alternative questionnaire was designed to collect information on houses that were second homesin Westminster. Unfortunately no occupied second homes were surveyed during the fieldworkperiod and no information was ascertained from this questionnaire.A8.2 Household characteristicsThe average length of stay for households within their second homes is 12.28 weeks per year, andthe visits occur mostly at weekends and holidays.The table below shows the households with second homes are most likely to live in the owneroccupied(no mortgage) or the private rented sectors.Table A8.1 Tenure of households with second homesTenure Households % householdsOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 2,019 42.6%Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 390 8.2%Council 0 0.0%RSL 125 2.6%Private rented 2,208 46.6%TOTAL 4,742 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows the average length of time households stay in their second homes by tenure.It shows that private rented households stay the longest in their second homes. A possibleexplanation for this may be that many households own a property outside London, but live in rentedaccommodation in the City during the week.PAGE 211

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006TenureTable A8.2 Average length of stay by tenure (weeks)Average length of stayOwner-occupied (no mortgage) 10.92Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 10.53Council 0RSL 8.00Private rented 14.08TOTAL 12.28Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows the type of accommodation inhabited by households with a second home. Itshows that households with second homes are most likely to reside in flats.Table A8.3 Dwelling type of households with second homesAccommodation type Households % householdsDetached house/bungalow* 0 0.0%Semi-detached house/bungalow 15 0.3%Terraced house/bungalow 1,289 27.2%Purpose-built flat/maisonette 2,530 53.3%Other flat/maisonette** 909 19.2%TOTAL 4,742 100.0%* Includes mobile homes*Other flat/maisonette includes flats that are part of a converted or shared house and flats in a commercial buildingSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows the location of households with second homes. The table indicates thathouseholds with second homes are particularly likely to live in the Central Strip.Table A8.4 Location of households with second homesSub-area Households % householdsNorth West 771 16.3%North 264 5.6%Central Strip 2,776 58.5%South Central 191 4.0%South 739 15.6%TOTAL 4,742 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006The table below shows that households with a second home are most likely to be 2 or more adultswith no children.PAGE 212

Appendix A8 Second Homes in WestminsterTable A8.5 Household type of households with second homesHousehold type Households % householdsSingle pensioners 27 0.6%2 or more pensioners 214 4.5%Single non-pensioners 1,530 32.3%2 or more adults - no children 2,363 49.8%2+ adults with 1 child 33 0.7%2+ adults 2+children 575 12.1%TOTAL 4,742 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A8.3 SummaryThe survey estimates that there are 4,742 households with a second home. This appendix brieflyexamined the characteristics of these households and found that these households are likely to:• reside in the owner occupied (no mortgage) or private rented sector• inhabit a flat• live in the Central Strip• be consisted of two adults and no childrenThe findings presented in this chapter are however based on a small sample size and shouldtherefore be treated with caution.PAGE 213


Appendix A9 The social rented sectorAppendix A9 The social rented sectorA9.1 IntroductionThe survey estimates that there are 24,674 households living within the social rented sector, ofwhich 12,197 live in council accommodation and 12,477 within RSL accommodation. Thisappendix briefly examines the characteristics of these households in terms of their housingcircumstances and ability to afford.A9.2 Dwelling characteristicsThe table below shows the types of accommodation social rented households reside in. The dataindicates that in both social rented tenures households are most likely to be living in purpose builtflats. Council tenants are more likely than RSL residents to be living in purpose built flats, whilstthe reverse is true for other flats.Dwelling typeTable A9.1 Dwelling type of social rented accommodationNumber ofhouseholdsCouncil% ofhouseholdsNumber ofhouseholdsRSL% ofhouseholdsDetached house/bungalow* 0 0.0% 30 0.2%Semi-detached house/bungalow 300 2.5% 352 2.8%Terraced house/bungalow 445 3.6% 118 0.9%Purpose-built flat/maisonette 7,111 66.3% 6,353 54.9%Other flat/maisonette** 4,341 27.6% 5,625 41.1%TOTAL 12,197 100.0% 12,477 100.0%* Includes mobile homes*Other flat/maisonette includes flats that are part of a converted or shared house and flats in a commercialbuildingSource: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A9.3 Household compositionThe table below shows that Council rented households are more likely to contain only one personthan RSL households. However, they are also more likely to contain five or more people.PAGE 215

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006Number of persons in householdTable A9.2 Size of social rented householdsNumber ofhouseholdsCouncil% ofhouseholdsNumber ofhouseholdsRSL% ofhouseholdsOne 7,045 57.8% 6,342 50.8%Two 2,335 19.1% 3,015 24.2%Three 1,289 10.6% 2,212 17.7%Four 942 7.7% 712 5.7%Five 349 2.9% 139 1.1%Six or more 237 1.9% 57 0.5%TOTAL 12,197 100.0% 12,477 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A9.4 EthnicityThe table below shows the ethnicity of households within social rented accommodation. The resultsclearly indicate that these households are most likely to be headed by someone White – British,followed by White – Irish.Number of persons in householdTable A9.3 Ethnic origin of social rented householdsNumber ofhouseholdsCouncil% ofhouseholdsNumber ofhouseholdsRSL% ofhouseholdsWhite - British 8,017 65.7% 7,839 62.8%White - Irish 1,386 11.4% 1,291 10.3%White - Other 460 3.8% 629 5.0%Mixed 294 2.4% 256 2.1%Asian or Asian British 442 3.6% 233 1.9%Black or Black British - African 507 4.2% 1,080 8.7%Black or Black British - Other 391 3.2% 621 5.0%Arab 622 5.1% 382 3.1%Any other ethnic group 79 0.6% 147 1.2%TOTAL 12,197 100.0% 12,477 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A9.5 Overcrowding/under-occupationThe table below shows the incidence of overcrowding and under-occupation in households withinsocial rented accommodation. The results show that these households in Council accommodationare much more likely to be overcrowded than those in RSL accommodation.PAGE 216

Appendix A9 The social rented sectorTable A9.4 Overcrowding/under-occupancy within the social rented sectorOvercrowding/under-occupationNumber ofhouseholdsCouncil% ofhouseholdsNumber ofhouseholdsRSL% ofhouseholdsOvercrowded 568 4.7% 85 0.7%Neither overcrowded nor under-occupied 10,696 87.7% 11,064 88.7%Under-occupied 933 7.6% 1,328 10.6%TOTAL 12,197 100.0% 12,477 100.0%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A9.6 Financial informationThe table below shows the average annual income and savings levels by type of social rentedaccommodation (excluding student households). It shows that RSL tenants have greater incomesand savings levels than those living in Council rented accommodation.Table A9.5 Incomes and savings levelsTenure Average income Average savingsCouncil Rented £13,656 £1,128RSL £23,528 £4,721TOTAL £18,648 £2,945Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A9.7 Social rented households and affordabilityThis section looks at the affordability of social rented households. The table below shows theproportion of households able to afford market priced accommodation in the City of Westminster (ifthey were to move now). The table shows that households living in RSL accommodation areslightly more able to afford accommodation than Council households.TenureTable A9.6 Affordability and tenureUnable to affordmarket housingAffordabilityNumber ofh’holds% of h’holdsunable to affordCouncil 11,950 12,197 98.0%RSL 10,931 12,477 87.6%TOTAL 22,881 24,674 92.7%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 217

Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006It is important to note that in Section C of the Basic Needs Assessment Model households currentlyliving in social rented accommodation were excluded from analysis. This is because since they arecurrently living in social rented accommodation their needs are already being met. However it ispossible to look again at those households living in social rented accommodation that can affordintermediate housing. The table below shows that households in social rented housing are slightlymore able to afford intermediate housing than market housing. However, still 62.2% are unable toafford intermediate housing options.TenureTable A9.7 Tenure and intermediate housingUnable to affordintermediatehousingAffordabilityNumber ofh’holds% of h’holdsunable to affordCouncil 8,528 12,197 69.9%RSL 6,816 12,477 54.6%TOTAL 15,344 24,674 62.2%Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006A9.8 SummaryThe survey estimates that there are 24,674 households within the social rented sector in the City ofWestminster. This appendix briefly examined the characteristics of these households and found thatthese households are likely to:• inhabit a purpose built flat• live in the North West• be headed by a White person• be unable to afford market and intermediate housing, with 62.2% being unable to afford thisPAGE 218

Appendix A10 Survey QuestionnaireAppendix A10 Survey QuestionnairePAGE 219

First Surveys MarketResearch13 Darwin CourtHawking PlaceBlackpool Technology ParkBlackpoolFY2 0JNFordham Research: Housing Needs SurveyCity of Westminster CouncilRESPONDENT: INTERVIEW: Date TimeName: Mr/Mrs/Miss/Ms .................................... 1 st call ......... ............................................ 2 nd call ......... ........3 rd call ......... ........Telephone: .................................... 4 th call ......... ........5 th call ......... ........Total number of calls:FINAL OUTCOME (please circle one code):Non-contact with occupantContact with occupantEmpty 01 Successful interview 14Derelict/being repaired 02 Confirmed second home 15Appears to be second home 03 Uncompleted 16GO TO SEPARATE SHEET Refused 17Other non-contact after 1 call 04Other non-contact after 2 calls 05Other non-contact after 3 calls 06Other non-contact after 4 calls 07Other non-contact after 5 calls 08Demolished 09Non-residential property 10No trace of address 11Address not used 12Access to dwelling denied 13NAME OF INTERVIEWER:....................................................................................................I DECLARE THAT I HAVE CARRIED OUT THIS INTERVIEW IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR INSTRUCTIONSSIGNATURE:.................................................................... DATE: .........................................[UPPER CASE TEXT GIVES DIRECTIONS TO INTERVIEWERS, AND IS NOT TO BE READ OUT]READ OUT:We are carrying out a housing needs survey on behalf of the City of Westminster andwould be grateful if you could answer these questions. The survey will produce informationvital to the Council in its bid to attract financial support for housing schemes for peopleneeding housing in the area, and will help to ensure that the Council's planning policiesproduce development which will meet the housing needs of the area. All the informationyou give us will be treated in strict confidence. We are an independent research companyand the Council will not see any of your replies.1

A YOUR HOUSEHOLD AND HOMEI am going to start by asking you some general questions about your household andhome. (A household comprises either one person living alone or a group of people (notnecessarily related) living at the same address sharing at least one meal a day, or sharing aliving room or sitting room).A1. What type of accommodation doesyour household occupy? SHOW CARD A1A whole house or bungalow that is:Detached........................................................ 1Semi-detached............................................... 2Terraced (including end-terrace).................... 3A flat, maisonette, or apartment that is:In a purpose built block .................................. 4Part of a converted or shared house.............. 5In a commercial building ................................ 6Mobile or temporary structure:A caravan or other mobile or temporarystructure ......................................................... 7Other .............................................................. 8A2. Is the accommodation shelteredhousing?Yes................................................................. 1No................................................................... 2A3. Is the accommodation a bungalow?Yes................................................................. 1No................................................................... 2Yes .............................................. 1 .............A5No ................................................ 2 .............A6A5. How many dwellings are there in thebuilding?A5. How many bedrooms does your homehave? single(s) double(s)A6. How many people (including you) arethere currently living in your household? peopleA7. Of these, how many married orcohabiting couples are there? couple(s)A4. Is this a shared house/bedsit? GO TO:A8. Please enter a) the age (number) and b) sex (M or F) of the people currently living inyour household. (If there are more than six household members, please give details for the sixoldest members)Person: 1 2 3 4 5 6a) Age b) Sex a) Age b) Sex a) Age b) Sex a) Age b) Sex a) Age b) Sex a) Age b) SexA9. For each person, please also enter a) their working status and b) their occupation.Person: 1 2 3 4 5 6a) b) a) b) a) b) a) b) a) b) a) b)a) Working Status 5) Long term sick or disabled b) Occupation1) Full time employment 6) Student 16 or over or trainee Please see separate sheet2) Part time employment 7) Pre School/under 16 and at school3) Retired 8) Other4) UnemployedA10. How many cars or vans are owned, oravailable for use, by one or more membersof your household?None .............................................................. 1One................................................................. 2Two ................................................................ 3Three or more ................................................. 4A11. How long (in minutes) does it take foryou and your partner (if applicable) totravel TO work?selfpartner2

A12. Where do you and your partner (ifapplicable) work? SHOW MAP 1 and SHOW MAP 2a) b)Self PartnerWork from home ............................... 1........1In the City of Westminster................. 1........1SHOW MAP 1 ENTER AREA CODE .......Elsewhere in London ........................ 2........2SHOW MAP 2 ENTER BOROUGH CODEElsewhere in the South East............. 3........3Elsewhere in the United Kingdom..... 4........4Abroad .............................................. 5........5........................ 6........6................................................7A13. Do you own a second home? (that theyspend a % of time in not solely a landlord of)Yes .................................................................1No ...................................................................2A14. How many days/ weeks per year doyou spend at your second home?days weeksA15. When do you mostly visit?Weekdays.......................................................1Weekends.......................................................2Holidays..........................................................3Live there between 1-3 months a year ...........4Live there between 4-6 months a year ...........5B PREVIOUS MOVES AND ACCOMMODATIONB1. How long have you lived in the City?Less than a year ............................................ 11 to 2 years .................................................... 22 to 5 years .................................................... 35 to 10 years .................................................. 4Over 10 years ................................................ 5Always lived here ........................................... 6B2. How many times have you moved inthe last 2 years?timesB3. For your last 3 homes (not including your current home) please state a) where youpreviously lived (SHOWMAPS 1 & 2), how long you lived there (in months) and your tenure.Please put the home you lived in most recently first.a) Where b) Length of residency c) tenurea) Home 1................................................................ ....................................b) Home 2................................................................ ....................................c) Home 3................................................................ ....................................a) Where previously lived b) Tenure1) In the City of Westminster (enter area code from SHOWMAP 1) Owner-occupied1)2) Elsewhere in London (enter area code from SHOWMAP 2) 2) Rented from the Council3) Elsewhere in the South East 3) Rented from a housing association4) Elsewhere in the UK 4) Rented from a private landlord5) Abroad 5) Tied- linked to job6) Shared ownershipB4. Was your last home temporaryaccommodation? (PLACED BY LA)Yes................................................................. 1No .................................................................. 2B5. How long have you lived at yourcurrent address?GO TO:Less than a year .............................. 1.........B61 to 2 years ...................................... 2.........B62 to 5 years ...................................... 3.........B65 to 10 years .................................... 4.........B6Over 10 years .................................. 5.........C1Always lived here ............................. 6.........C1B6. What was your last home? SHOW CARDB6Owner occupied (with/without mortgage) .....01House/flat share, or lodging in private rentedsector............................................................02Living with parents, relatives or friends ........03Rented from a Council..................................04Rented from a Housing Association .............05Rented from a private landlord .....................06Tied or linked to a job ...................................07Shared Ownership........................................08Previously homeless or in temporaryaccommodation ............................................09 ........................................................10: _______________________3

B7. Could your last move have beenavoided if repairs or adaptations had beencarried out to your last home?Yes................................................................. 1No .................................................................. 2

D SPECIAL NEEDSD1. Do you or any of your household have any of the following special needs? SHOW CARDD1 IF ANYONE FITS INTO MORE THAN ONE SPECIAL NEED GROUP, THEN CIRCLE MORETHAN ONE NUMBER FOR THAT PERSON. IF THERE ARE MORE THAN THREE PEOPLEWITH SPECIAL NEEDS PLEASE ANSWER FOR THOSE THREE WITH THE MOSTSIGNIFICANT NEEDS. IF THERE ARE NO SPECIAL NEEDS MEMBERS, PLEASE TICK HERE AND GO TO QUESTION E1.(n.b ordinary housing is housing without aids or adaptations specific to the need)5First Second ThirdPerson Person PersonFrail elderly .................................................................................................. 1................ 1 ................1A physical disability...................................................................................... 2................ 2 ................2A learning disability ...................................................................................... 3................ 3 ................3A mental health problem .............................................................................. 4................ 4 ................4Severe sensory disability ............................................................................. 5................ 5 ................5Other ............................................................................................................ 6................ 6 ................6D2. How could the accommodation or services for their (your) special needs best be improved?Please also say if you already have these improvements.Need No AlreadyNeed havea) Wheelchair access ................................................................................... 1..............2 .............3b) Single-level accommodation .................................................................... 1..............2 .............3c) Downstairs WC......................................................................................... 1..............2 .............3d) Handrails/ Extra handrails ........................................................................ 1..............2 .............3e) Low level light switches or raised power points........................................ 1..............2 .............3f) Low level kitchen units (including sink) or lever taps................................ 1..............2 .............3g) Level access shower unit ......................................................................... 1..............2 .............3h) Lift/stair lift ................................................................................................ 1..............2 .............3i) Emergency alarm ..................................................................................... 1..............2 .............3j) Car parking space near to front door of home.......................................... 1..............2 .............3k) Other alterations/adaptations ................................................................... 1..............2 .............3l) More support services to your present home (eg home carer, meals on wheels) 1..............2 .............3m) Need to move to alternative housing with specialist adaptations ............ 1..............2n) Need to move to alternative housing with specialist care/support............ 1..............2E TENURE AND HOUSING COSTSE1. Is your current accommodation: SHOW CARD E1GO TO:Owner occupied (own outright) ........................................................... 01....................................... F1Owner occupied (with a mortgage or loan) ......................................... 02....................................... E3Rented from the Council ..................................................................... 03....................................... E3Rented from a Housing Association.................................................... 04....................................... E3Rented from a private landlord or letting agency ................................ 05....................................... E2Rented from a relative or fiend of a household member..................... 06....................................... E2Tied or linked to a job.......................................................................... 07....................................... E3Shared ownership*.............................................................................. 08....................................... E3: _________________________________________ 09....................................... F1* Shared ownership schemes are designed to help people who wish to buy a home of their own but cannot afford it.The schemes involve buying a share in a property with a Housing Association and paying rent on the remainder.E2. Does the Council own the freehold for this property?Yes.....................................................................................................................................................1No ......................................................................................................................................................2E3. Please state whether you rent from…

An individual................................................... 1A company ..................................................... 2Other .............................................................. 3E4. Is your current home temporaryaccommodation?Yes................................................................. 1No .................................................................. 2E5. Housing Costs: SHOW CARD E5RENTERS: What is your current weekly ormonthly rent? (If you receiveHousing Benefit, state the fullrent charged by the landlordbefore any refunds).OWNERS: How much do you as ahousehold have to pay for yourmortgage each month(including any endowmentpremiums etc.)?Please include any service chargesIF SHARED OWNERSHIP PLEASE READBOTH QUESTIONS ABOVE AND PROVIDETHE ANSWER FOR TOTAL OUTGOINGS(I.E. RENT AND MORTGAGE COMBINED).WeeklyMonthlyNone ...................... None ............................01Under £59 .............. Under £255..................02£60 - £199.............. £256 - £515 .................03£120 - £179............ £516 - £775 .................04£180 - £239............ £776 - £1,035 ..............05£240 - £299............ £1,036 - £1,295 ...........06£300 - £359............ £1,296 - £1,555 ...........07£360 - £419............ £1,556 - £1,815 ...........08£420 - £479............ £1,816 - £2,075 ...........09£480 - £539............ £2,076 - £2,335 ...........10£540 or more.......... £2,336 or more ............11...............................................11 ...................................................12E6. BenefitsF FUTURE HOUSING INTENTIONSF1. Is your household on the HousingRegister (i.e. the Council's WaitingList/Transfer List) or a HousingAssociation Waiting/Transfer List?Yes................................................................. 1No .................................................................. 2................................. 6...........G1F4. How many bedrooms would you like?

edroom(s)F5. How many bedrooms would youexpect? bedroom(s)F6. What are the main reasons for movingto a different home? (CIRCLE AS MANY ASAPPLY) SHOW CARD F6Threat of eviction/repossession ................... 01End of tenancy agreement........................... 02Relatives/friends unable/unwilling toaccommodate .............................................. 03To move to cheaper accommodation........... 04Current home is too small ............................ 05Current home is too big................................ 06Want to move to a larger home.................... 07Want to move to a smaller home ................. 08Want to get on the property ladder .............. 09Current home is difficult to maintain............. 10Current home is unsuitable for a family ....... 11Current home lacks adequate facilities ........ 12Access problems (e.g. steps, stairs) ............ 13Current home is in poor condition ................ 14You are the victim of harassment ................ 15Relationship breakdown............................... 16To move to live with partner......................... 17To be in a school catchment area................ 18To have a garden......................................... 19To have a car parking space........................ 20To receive/give care or support ................... 21To live closer to employment or otheressential facilities......................................... 22To live independently ................................... 23To move to a better environment ................. 24To move to a different neighbourhood ......... 25Being moved by the Local Authority ............ 26........................................................ 27: ________________________F7. Of the reasons you have given (IN F6)which is the single most important reasonfor moving? (ENTER CODE FROM F6:) Main reason for movinga) b)Like ExpectIn the City of Westminster .................1 ....... 1SHOW MAP 1 ENTER AREA CODE...........Elsewhere in London .........................2 ..........2SHOW MAP 2 ENTER BOROUGH CODE....Elsewhere in the South East .............3 ..........3Elsewhere in the United Kingdom .....4 ..........4Abroad ...............................................5 ..........5F9. What type of housing would you LIKEto move to and would you EXPECT tomove to? (ONE CODE PER COLUMN) SHOWCARD F9a) b)Like ExpectBuy own home................................ 1.......... 1Rent from a Council........................ 2.......... 2Rent from a Housing Association ... 3.......... 3Rent from a private landlord orletting agency ................................. 4.......... 4Rent from a relative or friend of ahousehold member......................... 5.......... 5Tied-linked to a job ......................... 6.......... 6Shared Ownership or similar .......... 7.......... 7House/flat share in the privaterented sector................................... 8.......... 8 .......................................... 9.......... 9F10. What type of property would you LIKEto move to and would you EXPECT tomove to? (ONE CODE PER COLUMN) SHOWCARD F10a) b)Like ExpectDetached house ............................. 1.......... 5Semi-detached house..................... 2.......... 4Terraced house (including end ofterrace) ........................................... 3.......... 3A flat, maisonette, or apartment ..... 4.......... 4A caravan or other mobile ortemporary structure ........................ 5.......... 5F11. What type of accommodation wouldyou LIKE to move to and would youEXPECT to move to? (ONE CODE PERCOLUMN) SHOW CARD F11a) b)Like ExpectSheltered housing........................... 1.......... 5Supported housing ......................... 2.......... 4Extra care scheme ............................. 3.......... 3Residential care and/or nursing home. 4.......... 4A bungalow ....................................... 5.......... 5Ordinary residential accommodation ..... 6.......... 6F8. Where would you LIKE to live andwhere would you EXPECT to live? (ONECODE PER COLUMN)7

G REQUIREMENTS OF FUTURE HOUSEHOLDSG1. Will any of the other people in yourhousehold need and/or are they likely tomove to their own separateaccommodation within the next five years?(For example, a son or daughter, a parent,etc)GO TO:Yes............................................. 1.............. G2No .............................................. 2...............H1..................................................3G9. Where would they LIKE to live andwhere would they EXPECT to live? (ONECODE PER COLUMN) SHOW CARD G9a) b)Like ExpectIn the City of Westminster .................1 ....... 1SHOW MAP 1 ENTER AREA CODE...........Elsewhere in London .........................2 ..........2SHOW MAP 2 ENTER BOROUGH CODE....Elsewhere in the South East .............3 ..........3Elsewhere in the United Kingdom .....4 ..........4Abroad ...............................................5 ..........5G10. What type of housing would theyLIKE to move to and would they EXPECTto move to? (ONE CODE PER COLUMN)SHOW CARD G10a) b)Like ExpectBuy own home................................ 1.......... 1Rent from a Council........................ 2.......... 2Rent from a Housing Association ... 3.......... 3Rent from a private landlord orletting agency ................................. 4.......... 4Rent from a relative or friend of ahousehold member......................... 5.......... 5Tied-linked to a job ......................... 6.......... 6Shared Ownership or similar .......... 7.......... 7House/ flat share in the privaterented sector................................... 8.......... 8 .......................................... 9.......... 9G11. What type of property would theyLIKE to move to and would they EXPECTto move to? (ONE CODE PER COLUMN)SHOW CARD G11

a) b)Like ExpectDetached house..............................1 ..........1Semi-detached house .....................2 ..........2Terraced house (including end ofterrace)............................................3 ..........3A flat, maisonette, or apartment......4 ..........4A caravan or other mobile ortemporary structure.........................5 ..........5G12. What type of accommodation wouldyou LIKE to move to and would youEXPECT to move to? (ONE CODE PERCOLUMN) SHOW CARD G12a) b)Like ExpectSheltered housing ...........................1 ..........5Supported housing..........................2 ..........4Extra care scheme..............................3 ..........3Residential care and/or nursing home . 4 ..........4A bungalow .......................................5 ..........5Ordinary residential accommodation......6 ..........6the City of Westminster (this can either berented (excluding housing benefit) orbought)?Yes .................................................................1No ...................................................................2..................................................3G13. In your opinion, will they be able toafford suitable private sector housing inH FURTHER HOUSEHOLD INFORMATIONNOTE FOR INTERVIEWERS - (NOT TO BE READ OUT)AT THIS STAGE IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IS TREATED IN THESTRICTEST CONFIDENCE AND THAT THE COUNCIL DO NOT SEE THE INDIVIDUAL REPLIES (ONLYGROUPED DISTRICT-WIDE INFORMATION).WE REQUIRE INCOME INFORMATION TO COMPARE WITH HOUSE PRICES TO FIND OUT THE % OFHOUSEHOLDS WHO CANNOT AFFORD HOUSING IN THE DISTRICT.WE REQUIRE SAVINGS INFORMATION TO FIND OUT THE % OF HOUSEHOLDS WHO ARE UNABLE TOAFFORD A DEPOSIT ON A SUITABLY SIZED PROPERTY IN THE DISTRICT.H1. Please indicate the total annual gross (before tax) income of your household inclusive ofincome from investments and household state benefits SHOWCARD H1AnnualUnder £2,500 ...............................................01£2,500 - £5,000............................................02£5,001 - £6,500............................................03£6,501 - £8,000............................................04£8,001 - £9,500............................................05£9,501 - £11,000..........................................06£11,001 - £12,500........................................07£12,501 - £14,000........................................08£14,001 - £15,500........................................09£15,001 - £17,000........................................10£17,001 - £18,500........................................11£18,501 - £20,000........................................12£20,001 - £21,500........................................13£21,501 - £23,000........................................14£23,001 - £24,500........................................15£24,501 - £26,000........................................16H2. Please indicate how much savingsyou (and your partner) have. SHOW CARD H2Negative savings (ie. in debt)....................... 019£26,001 - £31,000 ........................................17£31,001 - £36,000 ........................................18£36,001 - £47,000 ........................................19£47,001 - £57,000 ........................................20£57,001 - £68,000 ........................................21£68,001 - £78,000 ........................................22£78,001 - £104,000 ......................................23£104,001 - £150,000 ....................................24£150,001 - £200,000 ....................................25£200,001 - £250,000 ....................................26£250,001 - £300,000 ....................................27£300,001 - £400,000 ....................................28£400,001 - £500,000 ....................................29Over £500,000..............................................30 .. ............................................31....... .............................................3No savings....................................................02Under £5,000................................................03£5,001 - £10,000 ..........................................04

£10,001 - £25,000........................................ 05£25,001 - £50,000........................................ 06£50,001 - £75,000........................................ 07£75,001 - £100,000...................................... 08£101,001 - £150,000.................................... 09£150,001 - £200,000.................................... 10£200,001 - £300,000.................................... 11£300,001 - £500,000.................................... 12Over £500,000 ............................................. 13 ............................................... 14 ................................................... 15British ......................................01 ................01Irish..........................................02 ................02Any other White background ...03 ................03: _______________________MixedWhite & Black Caribbean ........04 ................04White & Black African..............05 ................05White & Asian..........................06 ................06Any other mixed background...07 ................07: _______________________Asian or Asian BritishIndian.......................................08 ................08Pakistani..................................09 ................09Bangladeshi.............................10 ................10Any other Asian background ...11 ................11: _______________________Black or Black BritishCaribbean................................12 ................12African .....................................13 ................13Any other Black background ...14 ................14: _______________________ArabNorth African ...........................15 ................15Middle Eastern ........................16 ................16Any other Arab background.....17 ................17: _______________________Chinese or Other ethnic groupChinese ...................................18 ................18Any other .................................19 ................19: _______________________................................................20...............................21 ................21H5. What is your country of origin?____________________________________H6. Do you consider yourself to be aGypsy or Traveller?Yes .................................................................1No...................................................................2H7. It is possible that we may wish tocarry out another survey to respond tosome of the housing issues raised here.Would you be willing to be included in afollow-up survey?H4. How would you describe you and yourpartner's (if applicable) ethnic origin?SHOW CARD H4a) Self b) PartnerWhiteYes .................................................................1No...................................................................2 .3Thank you very muchfor your time10

Housing Needs Assessment 2006 - Westminster City Council

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