March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 33Typology of playersSell-side/intermediarysegmentClear crisis winnersamong the <strong>Global</strong>s<strong>Global</strong>s withdifficult crisis butre-committingExp<strong>and</strong>ingRegionalsRegionals “bankingthe profits” orretrenchingDomestics mostly“banking theprofits”Boutiques makinghaySource: Oliver WymanExamples• JPM, Barcap, GS,CS• UBS, ML-BoA, Citi• St<strong>and</strong>ardChartered,St<strong>and</strong>ard Bank,BNPP, Sant<strong>and</strong>er,Nomura, RBC,Japanese,Australians• BBVA, ING,Commerz, Calyon• Wide list• Trading specialists• Advisory specialistsDynamicsBusiness model evolution <strong>for</strong> the big banks• Consolidating gains <strong>and</strong> exploitingclosing window as advantagedattractors of talent• 2009 conditions have provided alife-line <strong>and</strong> critical investmentdollars• <strong>Wholesale</strong> divisions exploitingstrategic freedom <strong>and</strong> loosercompetitive environment to takeshare• Exp<strong>and</strong>ing growth strategies,particularly focused on EmergingMarkets• <strong>Banking</strong> groups largely looking totake the profits from marginexpansion <strong>and</strong> yield curve <strong>and</strong>use to consolidate franchise, buildcapital, pay dividends• Limited medium term ambitions inthe wholesale business• Repricing <strong>and</strong> reduction ofcompetition in domestic marketsimproving outlook• Some froth but several of thesebusiness models look advantaged<strong>and</strong> sustainable, particularly techbased <strong>and</strong> middle marketGiven the sheer breadth of change <strong>and</strong> the range ofuncertainty in outcome on regulatory issues, banks clearlywant to maintain strategic optionality at this point. At the sametime, delivering the required ROA improvements to offsetregulatory drag will dem<strong>and</strong> significant evolution of thebusiness model in the next two to three years. While theanswer <strong>for</strong> every bank will be different, we see the followingas a reasonable starting check-list <strong>for</strong> business modelevolution:DeltaCapital’07-’09+55%NM~30%~30%FlatUpDeltaBalanceSheet ’07-09~(15)%~(40)%~15%~5%FlatLimitedDeltaRevenues’07-09+25%~(25)%+60%~5%FlatMixedinnovative sourcing in middle <strong>and</strong> back office <strong>and</strong>through down-skilling work-<strong>for</strong>ce in some areas (e.g.flow sales)Return characteristics – low profitability, dependenton success on risk; returns low in balance sheetintensive businesses, but likely to improve underCCPs; high in exchange traded businesses.Non-organic play – acquisitions of dark pools orplat<strong>for</strong>ms, insourcing/whitelabelling JVs, furtherconsolidation of FCMs.1. Gain scale in flow businesses – taking market share,cutting costs <strong>and</strong> getting past the bar-bell economics inflow2. Mine the seams as business transitions betweenbanking <strong>and</strong> the buy-sideSeek more wallet share in core client base <strong>and</strong> newways to access tail clients (third party <strong>and</strong>insourcing); exp<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> invest in electronic trading<strong>and</strong> distribution plat<strong>for</strong>ms; cut costs throughManaged fund structures <strong>for</strong> transfer of creditbalance sheet <strong>and</strong> re-intermediation of illiquidinvestments; battle <strong>for</strong> structured <strong>and</strong> synthetic assetmanagement.30
March 16, 2010BanksReturn characteristics dependent on level of alphagearing versus fees structure in product.4. Grow the Emerging Markets franchise with locallyfunded modelsNon-organic play – JVs with managed fund vehicles,acquisitions of fund vehicles in structured credit,synthetic <strong>and</strong> discretionary quant.3. Build post-trade, transaction banking <strong>and</strong> corporatebanking as franchise safe-havens <strong>and</strong> sources ofliabilitiesMore interest in full universal banking onshore tobuild local currency liability funding, throughpayments <strong>and</strong> cash-led corporate banking; JVs withlocal distributors or universal banking acquisitions.Non-organic play – wholesale-retail acquisitions orstakes in India, Russia, Saudi, Brazil, Indonesia.Post trade clearing <strong>and</strong> asset servicing capabilitiesas hedge against OTC <strong>and</strong> FIG disintermediation.Corporate cash management business to enhanceown deposit base through locked in funds.Trade <strong>and</strong> supply chain infrastructures withadvanced collateral valuation capabilities assubstitute <strong>for</strong> lending; helping high grade corporatesto co-finance their increasingly funding constrainedsuppliers.Return characteristics depend on the ability of thebank to deliver infrastructure <strong>and</strong> high end clientsolutions.Exhibit 34Business model evolutionBusiness modelimperatives1. Building scale inFlow business2. Improve leverage<strong>and</strong> liability structure3. Access to liabilityheavyhighgrowth marketsClient / ProductadjacencyStrategic responsesFinancial ResourceEfficiency• Release balancesheet, build AMbusinesses– Credit vehicles– Structured AMInfrastructureadjacency• Exp<strong>and</strong>ing flow capture– Electronic, liquidity search, internalisation– Exp<strong>and</strong> sales, 3 rd party flow sourcing• Emerging Markets <strong>and</strong> Asia– Commercial <strong>and</strong> wholesalebanking– Full retail banking• Transaction<strong>Banking</strong>– Payments <strong>and</strong>cash– Trade Finance– Custody– SecuritiesSvcsNon-organic play – acquisitions of fundsadministration, corporate trust <strong>and</strong> clearing firms aswell as cooperation with service companies to thephysical supply chain.4. Lower volatilityincome streamsSource: Oliver Wyman• Distribution– Trust <strong>and</strong> wealth– Public distribution31
- Page 4 and 5: March 16, 2010BanksIn this report:1
- Page 6 and 7: March 16, 2010Banks2009 core revenu
- Page 8 and 9: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 7Base ca
- Page 10 and 11: March 16, 2010Banks2) Margins - Tig
- Page 13 and 14: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 13We saw
- Page 15 and 16: March 16, 2010Banks4) Regulatory Ch
- Page 17 and 18: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 18Regula
- Page 19 and 20: March 16, 2010Banks5) Funding - dri
- Page 21 and 22: March 16, 2010Banks6) Derivatives M
- Page 23 and 24: March 16, 2010Banks7) Sustainable I
- Page 25 and 26: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 26We hav
- Page 27 and 28: March 16, 2010Banks9) Compensation
- Page 29: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 32Compet
- Page 33 and 34: March 16, 2010BanksPart 2 - Investm
- Page 35 and 36: March 16, 2010BanksThe key point we
- Page 37: March 16, 2010Banksestimated normal
- Page 40 and 41: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 43Indust
- Page 42 and 43: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 45Europe
- Page 44 and 45: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 50FICC:
- Page 46 and 47: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 57Our ba
- Page 48 and 49: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 61FICC r
- Page 50 and 51: March 16, 2010Banks3. Regulatory ou
- Page 52 and 53: March 16, 2010BanksBasel III: Expec
- Page 54 and 55: March 16, 2010Banks4. Derivatives m
- Page 56 and 57: March 16, 2010BanksKey stock callsB
- Page 58 and 59: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 78Gap ha
- Page 60 and 61: March 16, 2010BanksOur 2010e EPS mo
- Page 62 and 63: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 86Group
- Page 64 and 65: March 16, 2010Bankscutting measures
- Page 66 and 67: March 16, 2010Banksis possible if r
- Page 68 and 69: March 16, 2010BanksExhibit 971Q pro
- Page 70 and 71: March 16, 2010Banksupside to fundra
- Page 72 and 73: March 16, 2010BanksImperial Bank of
- Page 74 and 75: March 16, 2010Banksis 30% or more d
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