collisions. The following 1 7 criteria arepresented as a guide for assessing balllightning models in general, and <strong>the</strong> LBHmodel in particular. LBHs meet <strong>the</strong>se criteria,whereas o<strong>the</strong>r models generally donot.1. Constant size, brightness, and shapefor times
Saturn, and copious excess heat generationin planets like Jupiter and its moons.There could be profound implications <strong>to</strong>Earth and planetary science if it could beestablished that little black holes are presentin and on <strong>the</strong> Earth.For example, whereas <strong>the</strong> Earth'soverall density is 5.5 gm/cm 3 , <strong>the</strong>Earth's lithosphere (50 miles in from <strong>the</strong>surface) has a measured density of ~2.7 gm/cm 3 . This difference in densityhas been generally assumed <strong>to</strong> be <strong>the</strong>result of molten iron filling <strong>the</strong> Earth'score. LBHs in <strong>the</strong> core could help in part<strong>to</strong> account for both <strong>the</strong> increased density,as well as <strong>the</strong> <strong>to</strong>tal outward heatflow from <strong>the</strong> interior of <strong>the</strong> Earth, aswell as <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r planets. Jupiter, for example,has a very large interior productionof heat. It is thought that some of itsmoons are heated by tidal friction in interacting<strong>with</strong> Jupiter's gravitationalfield, but <strong>the</strong>re are significant differencesin this effect for <strong>the</strong> various moons.Hawking was <strong>the</strong> first <strong>to</strong> propose radiationfrom non-rotating black holes, andamong <strong>the</strong> first <strong>to</strong> suggest that smallblack holes in stellar objects such as ourSun might help <strong>to</strong> explain <strong>the</strong> solar neutrinoproblem. In addition, o<strong>the</strong>rs, suchas Trofimenko, have discussed <strong>the</strong> possibilitythat LBHs are involved in geophysicaland astrophysical phenomena, butdid not consider ball lightning, nor <strong>the</strong>ramifications of LBH radiation and/or <strong>the</strong>time for LBH <strong>to</strong> devour <strong>the</strong>ir hosts. It iseasy <strong>to</strong> see why LBH have not been consideredas <strong>the</strong> core power source of balllightning, because Hawking's LBH radiateisotropically at a devastatingly highrate.It has not been easy <strong>to</strong> conclude thatLBHs are present near <strong>the</strong> centers of astronomicalbodies such as our Earth ando<strong>the</strong>r planets. There are two extremes<strong>with</strong> respect <strong>to</strong> this question, and <strong>the</strong>yboth have problems. One is <strong>the</strong> pre-Hawking radiation view, which wouldpermit <strong>the</strong> universe <strong>to</strong> be filled <strong>with</strong> alarge percentage of LBHs, but has <strong>the</strong>problem that <strong>the</strong> LBHs would gobble upany hosts <strong>the</strong>y inhabit. The o<strong>the</strong>r is <strong>the</strong>post-Hawking radiation view, whichwould limit <strong>the</strong> universe <strong>to</strong> be filled <strong>with</strong>only about one-millionth of its mass <strong>with</strong>LBHs because <strong>the</strong>re would be muchmore Hawking radiation than o<strong>the</strong>rwiseobserved. My model permits up <strong>to</strong> 95percent of <strong>the</strong> universe <strong>to</strong> be filled <strong>with</strong>LBHs because <strong>the</strong>ir radiation is relativelyquiescent, and yet lets <strong>the</strong>m evaporateaway near <strong>the</strong> centers of astronomicalbodies before <strong>the</strong>se bodies are devoured.If a slow-moving LBH falls in <strong>to</strong>ward<strong>the</strong> center of an astronomical body like<strong>the</strong> Earth, it will tend <strong>to</strong> oscillate <strong>with</strong>simple harmonic motion about <strong>the</strong> center-of-massof this body. The LBH willlose only a tiny amount of energy in itsgravitational interaction <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> surroundingmass. Long before it slowsdown sufficiently <strong>to</strong> come <strong>to</strong> rest at <strong>the</strong>center of <strong>the</strong> body, its beamed radiationwill increase its amplitude of motion,eventually causing it <strong>to</strong> shoot out awayfrom <strong>the</strong> body before ingesting it.However, if a LBH were <strong>to</strong> come <strong>to</strong>rest at <strong>the</strong> center of a body, it wouldlikely ingest <strong>the</strong> body over a period ofperhaps millions of years before it evaporatesaway or shoots away. This is because,as a LBH becomes surroundedby mass, its radiation rate will first increase;but, as <strong>the</strong> mass distribution becomesuniform around it, <strong>the</strong> radiationwill decrease until it eventually s<strong>to</strong>ps.One might be able <strong>to</strong> rekindle <strong>the</strong> radiationby producing an external asymmetry,and/or by an Aharonov/Bohm effect.My model of LBH radiation permitsmore realistic speculation of how LBHsmight be ga<strong>the</strong>red. Harvesting LBHsmight be no more difficult than miningasteroids from <strong>the</strong> asteroid belt that haveLBHs in <strong>the</strong>m. An entire asteroid couldbe <strong>to</strong>wed in; or whittled down <strong>to</strong> a manageablesize <strong>to</strong> carry onboard <strong>the</strong> spacecraft;or, <strong>the</strong> LBH might be shaken out of<strong>the</strong> asteroid. Ano<strong>the</strong>r possibility mightbe <strong>to</strong> charge up LBHs and carefully maneuver<strong>the</strong>m <strong>with</strong> an electric field.Flawed radiation? As startling as was<strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>oretical discovery of radiationfrom black holes in 1971 by Zel'dovich,and in 1974 by Hawking, perhaps aneven more startling <strong>the</strong>oretical discoverywas made independently in 1975 and1976 by Paul Davies and William Unrah.Using quantum mechanics and generalrelativity, <strong>the</strong>y discovered what iscalled "acceleration radiation." The conclusion<strong>the</strong>y, and <strong>the</strong> general orthodoxphysics community, drew from this isthat <strong>the</strong> concept of a real particle is relative;that is, <strong>the</strong> existence of particles isnot absolute because it depends on one'sreference frame. Nei<strong>the</strong>r Zel'dovich-Hawking radiation, nor Unrah-Daviesradiation has been observed empirically.I have deep respect and admiration forHawking's pioneering work and his keeninsights. However, for science <strong>to</strong>progress, it is crucial <strong>to</strong> critically examineall work and find imperfections whenpossible. Perhaps Hawking will revisehis model of black hole radiation. Hehas had <strong>the</strong> integrity <strong>to</strong> alter his positionon at least six major <strong>to</strong>pics:1. His conclusion that a quantum cosmology/wavefunction of <strong>the</strong> universeproved that <strong>the</strong> arrow of time would reversewhen <strong>the</strong> universe contracts.2. Disputing Bekenstein's work on <strong>the</strong>entropy of black holes, which he laterembraced.3. After saying T = 0 for all blackholes, <strong>the</strong>n assigning T > 0 as a functionof <strong>the</strong> mass of a black hole.4. With respect <strong>to</strong> inflation of <strong>the</strong> universe.5. With respect <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> cosmologicalconstant. In keeping <strong>with</strong> his long-heldview, in 1998, he expressed doubtsabout a cosmological constant, calling<strong>the</strong> results preliminary <strong>with</strong> respect <strong>to</strong><strong>the</strong> accelerated expansion of <strong>the</strong> universe.He said that <strong>the</strong> cosmological constantis unnecessary in light of his ownviews. However, in April 1999, he said:"I have now had more time <strong>to</strong> consider<strong>the</strong> observations and <strong>the</strong>y look quitegood. This led me <strong>to</strong> reconsider my <strong>the</strong>oreticalprejudices. I now think it is veryreasonable that <strong>the</strong>re should be a cosmologicalconstant."6. The anthropic principle and multiversecosmology. More recently, he saidthat <strong>the</strong> anthropic principle is fairly obvious,and he affirmed his support for it.Some cosmologists have suggested that<strong>the</strong>re have been an infinity of big bangsgoing off in a larger "multiverse," each<strong>with</strong> different values of <strong>the</strong> fundamentalconstants. The anthropic principle saysthat only in universes where <strong>the</strong>se valuesare compatible <strong>with</strong> life, could <strong>the</strong>y beobserved by beings such as ourselves.ConclusionIn view of <strong>the</strong> lack of experimental evidencefor Hawking radiation, it is meaningfuland proper <strong>to</strong> examine his <strong>the</strong>oryof black hole radiation <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> possibilitythat it may be in error and/or that <strong>the</strong>formalism underlying it and acceleratedradiation may need modification. Belinski,a foremost <strong>the</strong>orist in <strong>the</strong> field,unequivocally concludes, "<strong>the</strong> effect[Hawking radiation] does not exist." 7My <strong>the</strong>ory has been presented as an al-74 Summer 199921st CENTURYRESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS