HDD - IDEMA
HDD - IDEMA
HDD - IDEMA
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John RydningResearch ManagerHard Disk Drives & <strong>HDD</strong> ComponentsHard Disk Drive Storage:How Long Can A Good Thing Last?www.idc.com
Discussion Agenda<strong>HDD</strong> Innovation Trajectories• Stage is Set for Record Breaking YearsChanging <strong>HDD</strong> Market Dynamics & RequirementsIDC’s Outlook
<strong>HDD</strong> Advancements in the last 10 years1996 2006 ChangeSpindle SpeedAreal Density (Gbit/in 2 )Cubic in. per 1GBWatts per 1 GBPrice per 1 GB7,200 rpm 15,000 rpm 108%1.1 178.8 16,158%3.36 0.025 -99%1.9 < 0.1 -99%$158 $0.59 -99%
The Stage is Set:A Positive Future Through 2010(M)800700600500400300200100IDC current forecast isover 700M <strong>HDD</strong>s in 2010and $41B in RevenueR & D Investments$45B$40B$35B$30B$25B$20B$15B$10B$5B0$0B199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010UnitsRevenue
What Lies Beyond 2010?(M)1000$50B9008007001 Billion units?$50 Billion in Revenue??$45B$40B$35B600$30B500$25B400$20B300$15B200$10B100$5B0$0B199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016UnitsRevenue
<strong>HDD</strong> Improvement Trajectories to 20162006 CAGR 2016Spindle SpeedAreal Density (Gbit/in 2 )Cubic in. per 1GBWatts per 1 GBPrice per 1 GB15,000 rpm 8% 31,000+ rpm178.8 66% 29 Tb/in 20.025 -39% 0.00025
What Might This <strong>HDD</strong> Look Like?The Good:1.8in Form Factor32,000 rpm20 TB of Capacity10 TB per platterThe Bad:$4526 W of power?
Power Concerns are Increasing RapidlyThe cost of energy continuesto rise and companies do nothave unlimited coolingcapacity.Companies do not haveunlimited space and power.
The Dark Side of <strong>HDD</strong> Storage1996 2006 ChangeIOPS/GB 24 2 -91%Expected life 5 years 5 years 0%SecurityNoneLittle?The Ugly:IOPS/Sec per GB of….?MTBF or AFR of….? Or expected life?How much data loss with one <strong>HDD</strong>?
<strong>HDD</strong> Industry R&D Spending<strong>HDD</strong> R & D 1992 - 2001<strong>HDD</strong> R & D 2000 - 2010+50%N = $20.9B*N = $30.9B*<strong>HDD</strong> OEMsComponent Vendors<strong>HDD</strong> OEMsComponent VendorsCan a 50% increase in R & D spending sustaintraditional <strong>HDD</strong> improvement trajectories beyond 2010?Should they? Are market requirements changing?*Estimated
<strong>HDD</strong> Markets Are ChangingEnterprise4%Mobile PC13%CE/Other0%DT PC83%Desktop PC + Enterprise = 87%1996105 M unitsEnterprise3%CE17%Mobile PC21%Other4%2005381 M unitsDesktop PC + Enterprise = 58%DT PC55%CE26%Desktop PC + Enterprise = 40%Other10%DT PC37%Enterprise3%Mobile PC24%2010700+ M units
“Edge” Devices Have Challenging <strong>HDD</strong>RequirementsEnterpriseComputing
More Portable Data = More Stationary StorageMore Portable Data = More Stationary StorageIOPS incr.Robustness incr.Magnetic TapeOptical<strong>HDD</strong>MRAM<strong>HDD</strong> &MechanicalOpticalCross-Point Array Devices$/GB incr.$/GB incr.
Racing to Meet New <strong>HDD</strong> Requirements
Performance
Power by FF (maximum)Watts201816141210864203.5" 15K 3.5" 10K 3.5"ATA2.5"5400<strong>HDD</strong>s have various powermodes – spin up typicallyis the most challenging(especially if it’s cold!)<strong>HDD</strong>s will increasinglyleverage cache to spin thedrive less frequently2.5"42001.8" 1.0" 0.85"12-Volt5-Volt3.3-Volt
Temperature tolerance(Celsius)-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100LCDFLASHCommercialExtended<strong>HDD</strong>3.5” ATA2.5” ATA2.5” Auto1.8”1.0”• Most focus has been on 2.5” <strong>HDD</strong>s designed forautomobiles to date, but expect that other smaller formfactors will receive attention in the near future• Costly and difficult design for <strong>HDD</strong>s
SecurityMobile devices by natureinvite the potential for theft,accidental loss, damageThe more GBs embeddedinto hard disk drivesincreases the amount ofdata at risk – includingpersonal data<strong>HDD</strong> manufacturers arenow beginning to addsecurity features thatencrypt data on the disk
How Long Can A Good Thing Last?<strong>HDD</strong> investments to extend current improvement trajectoriesmay overshoot device requirements in several markets<strong>HDD</strong> R&D investments need to focus on metrics that addressbackbone infrastructure; but, are ‘leverageable’ into portabledevice markets wherever possible• Capacity ($/GB)• Power• Performance (hybrid-<strong>HDD</strong>) • Security• ReliabilityThe demand for hard disk drives that meet an expanded setof market requirements is solid for the next decade
An <strong>HDD</strong> for the Future
Questions?Please email me atjrydning@idc.com
John RydningResearch ManagerHard Disk Drives & <strong>HDD</strong> ComponentsHard Disk Drive Storage:How Long Can A Good Thing Last?www.idc.com
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