Savola Group Q2 results in line with estimates - Al Rajhi Capital

Savola Group CompanyFood-Diversified –Industrial18 July 2013Major developmentsGuidance for Q3 2013The management has given a SAR370m net profit guidance (before capital gains) for thethird quarter, up 3.2% y-o-y (down 4.6% q-o-q). However, looking at the company’s historicalperformance, we believe Savola will be able to beat this guidance. At the beginning of theyear, the company had given a full year net profit guidance of SAR1.5bn (before exceptionalitems) in 2013. The company has reported a net profit of SAR683mn for the first half of theyear.Acquisition of additional stake in subsidiariesSavola acquired Al-Muhaidib Holding Company’s 10% stake in Savola Foods Company and18.6% (direct and indirect) stake in Azizia Panda United Company. Savola will now hold a100% stake in Savola Foods Company and a 93% stake in Azizia Panda. In exchange, thecompany has issued about 34mn shares in Savola to Al-Muhaidib Holding. The Saudi FoodsCompany posted a net profit of SAR626mn in 2012, while Azizia Panda reported a net profitof SAR311.4mn. Based on the 2012 numbers, the transaction is EPS accretive, resulting inabout 2% increase in the company’s 2012 proforma EPS, which is a positive for the stock.Based on our target price of SAR57.3 for Savola, the transaction values the stakes at aboutSAR1,947mn, implying a P/E of 16.2x. Savola is currently trading at a trailing twelve monthP/E (Bloomberg) of 17.7x, and at our target price, the stock is valued at a P/E (trailing twelvemonths) of 19.3x. Given the strong growth prospects for the company’s food and retailbusiness, we believe that the acquisition is a positive development for Savola shareholders.Fire at raw sugar warehouseThe company reported a fire incident on June 22, 2013 at its raw sugar warehouse in Jeddah.The management confirmed that the fire did not cause any human injuries or casualties, andalso did no damage to the main plant. The company was insured against such an event, andthus the incident should not affect the company’s financial performance during the year. Thecompany had suspended production at the plant, which the management said should startshortly. However, we do not have any update on the same yet.Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 2

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