E3_EDT_Phase2_Methodology_and_Sensitivities_2011-04-22

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1. Proposed 24 Zone Modelfor Phase 2NameDescription1 BC British Columbia2 AB Alberta3BPA BPA + SCL + TWPR + GCPD+ CHPD + DOPD4 NWE Northwestern Energy + WAUW5 NNV Sierra Pacific Power6 PACE PacifiCorp East7 WACM WAPA Rocky Mts.8 PSCO Xcel Colorado9 CA CAISO + CFE10 NEVP NV Energy11 AZPS APS12 NM New Mexico13 PSE Puget Sound Energy14 AVA Avista15 PGN Portland General Electric16 PACW PacifiCorp West17 IPC Idaho Power18 WALC WAPA Lower Colorado19 SRP Salt River Project20 TEP Tucson Electric Power21 BANC BA of N. CA+ Turlock ID22 EPE El Paso Electric23 LADWP LA Dept. of Water & Power24 IID Imperial Irrigation DistrictZone 13Zone 14Zone 15Zone 16Zone 1 Zone 2Zone 3Zone 5Zone 21Zone 9Zone 10Zone 23Zone 18Zone 24Zone 11Zone 17Zone 4Zone 6 Zone 7Zone12Zone 19 Zone 20Zone8Zone221412
1. Zonal Granularity & UpdatedHurdle RatesPhase 1 hurdle rates:Simulated North-to South andEast-to-West flows on east sideof system still higher than 2006actual flowsFor Phase 2:Will explore increasing East sidehurdle rates by approximately$6-10/MWh to more accuratelysimulate greater friction in thatpart of systemPhase 1 East-Side Benchmarked FlowsPath Flows (MW)Path Flows (MW)2006 Actual FlowsGridview Simulation Flows2,5002,0001,5001,00050002,0001,5001,000500P19: BRIDGER WEST (E-W)0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecP36: TOT 3 (N-S)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecPath Flows (MW)1,0005000-500-1,000P31: TOT 2A (N-S)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec15
Page 5: About E3E3’s expertise has placed
Page 8 and 9: Phase 2 Overview & MotivationOveral
Page 10 and 11: Phase 2 CasesThe analysis will cons
Page 12 and 13: Key Assumptions to Phase 2 CasesUpd
Page 16 and 17: 2. Modified conventional reservereq
Page 18 and 19: 3. Flexibility Reserve Requirement
Page 20 and 21: Summary of Phase 2 Methodologyby Re
Page 22 and 23: 5. Price-ResponsiveHydro Modeling (
Page 24 and 25: Anticipated Impact of RevisedPhase
Page 26 and 27: Section 3: Phase 2 StudyProposed Se
Page 28 and 29: Additional Sensitivity AnalysisAs t
Page 30 and 31: Sensitive Case PrioritizationOrder
Page 32: E3 Contact InformationEnergy and En

E3_EDT_Phase2_Methodology_and_Sensitivities_2011-04-22

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