Education Analysis and Projection Model - UNESCO Bangkok

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management Reformunderstanding of what is the most likely resource availability during the plan period, and how one canimprove the cost-efficiency of the resources used.Targets must fulfill two conditions: respect the policy goals set by the Government (policy/ decision makers), and be feasible in terms of human, material, and financial resources, as well as in terms ofimplementation management capacity.A target that does not have the support of the decision makers and major stakeholders are not likelyto be reached. Similarly, a target for which the required resources are not available cannot bereached. Which targets to include in the education plan is a decision which is the result of anextensive dialogue process between the policy level and the technical planning level.The “assessment of feasibility of the proposed targets” is an iterative process in which,first: the local education authorities identify targets that closely reflect the policy goals;second: the education planners assess the resources needed to attain these proposed targets;andthird: the feasibility of the initial targets is discussed in the light of information on the assessedresource needs between the education planners and the stakeholders (in particular the decisionmakers) and agreed on both the targets and resource needs.If the dialogue leads to the conclusion that one or more of the resources needed will not be availableto the extent and/or at the time when they are needed, the initial, proposed targets must be adjustedand feasibility of the adjusted targets must be reassessed. The process is repeated until all targetshave been identified that are considered to be feasible in terms of resources and that are acceptableat policy level.The assessment of feasibility of the targets relies on detailed analysis and projection information,which could inform what the consequences of a given target are likely to be. Since educationfunctions in a complex environment without any definite input to output/outcome relationship,simulation models have to be used to simulate the likely consequences of a given target. TheANPRO-Model of UNESCO is one of the models which can provide detailed analysis and projectioninformation for individual or multiple targets.Sometimes, the “assessment of feasibility of the proposed targets”, “identification of resource gaps”and “identification of measures to close resource gap and to render the proposed targets feasible” areperceived as different steps instead of part of the iterative process of target setting.Identification of Action ProgrammesThe planning process, the preparation of the plan document and the plan document itself can bestructured around three operational areas: ACCESS; QUALITY; MANAGEMENTEach operational area brings together the actions that have essential features in common in terms of:goals, technical characteristics, organizational aspects, principal actors, and regulatory framework.Each operational area requires its specific implementation approach.An education plan also outlines “action programmes” for the achievement of major goals; forexample, an action programme for in-service training, an action programme for the application offundamental school quality level standards, an action programme for curriculum reform etc.Action programmes identify and spell out what shall be undertaken, how much of it, by when, bywhom, and how. They specify verifiable implementation indicators. They indicate the overallmagnitude of the resources required (teachers, material, and financial resources, etc.). Here,simulation models are useful to check the coherence and timing of different action programs.2