Education Analysis and Projection Model - UNESCO Bangkok

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management Reformunderstanding of what is the most likely resource availability during the plan period, and how one canimprove the cost-efficiency of the resources used.Targets must fulfill two conditions: respect the policy goals set by the Government (policy/ decision makers), and be feasible in terms of human, material, and financial resources, as well as in terms ofimplementation management capacity.A target that does not have the support of the decision makers and major stakeholders are not likelyto be reached. Similarly, a target for which the required resources are not available cannot bereached. Which targets to include in the education plan is a decision which is the result of anextensive dialogue process between the policy level and the technical planning level.The “assessment of feasibility of the proposed targets” is an iterative process in which,first: the local education authorities identify targets that closely reflect the policy goals;second: the education planners assess the resources needed to attain these proposed targets;andthird: the feasibility of the initial targets is discussed in the light of information on the assessedresource needs between the education planners and the stakeholders (in particular the decisionmakers) and agreed on both the targets and resource needs.If the dialogue leads to the conclusion that one or more of the resources needed will not be availableto the extent and/or at the time when they are needed, the initial, proposed targets must be adjustedand feasibility of the adjusted targets must be reassessed. The process is repeated until all targetshave been identified that are considered to be feasible in terms of resources and that are acceptableat policy level.The assessment of feasibility of the targets relies on detailed analysis and projection information,which could inform what the consequences of a given target are likely to be. Since educationfunctions in a complex environment without any definite input to output/outcome relationship,simulation models have to be used to simulate the likely consequences of a given target. TheANPRO-Model of UNESCO is one of the models which can provide detailed analysis and projectioninformation for individual or multiple targets.Sometimes, the “assessment of feasibility of the proposed targets”, “identification of resource gaps”and “identification of measures to close resource gap and to render the proposed targets feasible” areperceived as different steps instead of part of the iterative process of target setting.Identification of Action ProgrammesThe planning process, the preparation of the plan document and the plan document itself can bestructured around three operational areas: ACCESS; QUALITY; MANAGEMENTEach operational area brings together the actions that have essential features in common in terms of:goals, technical characteristics, organizational aspects, principal actors, and regulatory framework.Each operational area requires its specific implementation approach.An education plan also outlines “action programmes” for the achievement of major goals; forexample, an action programme for in-service training, an action programme for the application offundamental school quality level standards, an action programme for curriculum reform etc.Action programmes identify and spell out what shall be undertaken, how much of it, by when, bywhom, and how. They specify verifiable implementation indicators. They indicate the overallmagnitude of the resources required (teachers, material, and financial resources, etc.). Here,simulation models are useful to check the coherence and timing of different action programs.2

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management ReformFormulation of the Education PlanThe results of the above planning steps provide the inputs for the actual “Education Plan” document.The plan document will be formulated on the basis of the analysis, projections, assessment ofresource needs and assessment of feasibility, which have been made at the different planning steps.The plan should specify an organized list of concrete measures and actions aiming at implementingthe development strategy over a period (generally, 3 to 5 years for the decentralized plans). The planshould include changes / adaptations of the legal and regulatory framework, and measures todevelop access and participation in basic education and other levels considered as important,improve internal efficiency, quality and achievement, promote equity, improve the use of resourcesand build capacity.Monitoring the Plan ImplementationA continuous planning process is another key feature of modern sector management. In the course ofplan implementation, targets change. Some targets may be reached faster than foreseen while otherstake longer to achieve than foreseen. Assumptions may also change (for example, salary scale,construction unit cost, school age population, etc.). At regular intervals, if possible every year, theplan has to be adjusted to take these developments into account.Monitoring the implementation of the plan provides the information required to update the plan. Toenable monitoring consistently throughout the plan implementation period, the plan must containindicators against which the implementation progress can be measured.Monitoring must lead to changes promoting smooth implementation and achievement of the plantargets. Monitoring information can be organized with the help of the simulation models together withvarious instruments such as surveys, assessments, observations, and etc. Regular updating of theplan based on information produced by monitoring will result in a continuous planning process andwhat is in fact becoming a ‘rolling plan’.Importance of Simulation Models in Education PlanningAs seen above, planners use simulation models in different planning steps. The simulation modelsare capable of estimating future enrollment and resource needs for specific quantifiable goals andtargets concerning with: (a) Grade 1 intake; (b) promotion, repetition and dropout rates; (c) transitionrates; (d) reintegration rates (of previous years’ dropouts); (e) class size, pupil-teacher ratio or classteacherratio and use of classrooms (single or multi-shifts); (f) in-service teacher training;(g) distribution of textbooks, teacher guides, and other teaching-learning materials; (h) staff salaries(basic scales or increments); (i) special education development programs, and initiation andupgrading of facilities (such as libraries, labs, …); (j) share of public / private education; and(k) parents contribution and external assistance to education (loans and grants from IOs and NGOs)and etc. Therefore, simulation models are the integral part of an education plan.The simulation models are useful in exploring the consequences of specific decisions on theevolution of the education sector. However, they cannot predict exactly what will happen, but onlyshowing what might happen if specific decisions are made and nothing else changes. At the sametime, the outputs of the simulation models are useful in projecting what might be achieved, when andat what cost, if and only if the assumptions, under which the models are developed, remain valid untilend of the projection period.MethodologyThis demonstration module is designed to project enrollment and required resources (teacher,classes, classrooms, non-teaching staff in schools, and recurrent and capital expenditure) for the next10 years, if the system keeps the same structure (i.e. number of grades per level) as it is today. Users3

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management Reformcan simulate different scenarios by providing different targets and can analyze the effect of suchchanges on the selected sub-sector: primary, secondary, or basic education sub-sector, or entiregeneral education.More comprehensive model, ANPRO Model (see “Handbook for Decentralized Education Planning”,UNESCO-Bangkok, 2005) includes preschool, technical and vocational education, non-formaleducation, and teacher training. The ANPRO Model also provides enrollment projection for girls forthe preschool to upper secondary sub-sectors and comparisons of boy and girl enrollment usingselected indicators. Moreover, a brief presentation of projections for the GDP, governmentexpenditure, government education expenditure and possible donors' contributions together withsubsector-wide expenditures until 2015/16 are included in the model sheets.The present demonstration module includes the following parts:• School-age population projections through set growth rates;• Projections of new entrants in Grade 1 and enrollment by grade;• Projections of classes, classrooms, and schools;• Projections of teachers and non-teaching staff in schools;• Projections of recurrent expenditure including staff salaries and other recurrent expendituresbased on the average expenditure for a pupil and for a school (unit cost);• Projections of capital expenditure; and• Projections of total public education expenditure.(a) Enrollment ProjectionThe cohort-component method is used in enrollment projection, that is, the student flow rates(promotion, repetition and dropout rates) together with enrollment in the most recent school year areused to drive the future enrollment. The following equations are used in projecting for Grade 1:Enrollment in Grade 1 = New intake to Grade 1 + Repeaters from Grade 1Year t Year t Year t-1 enrollmentNew intake to Grade 1 = Population at the school x Apparent Intake RateYear t entrant age, Year t (AIR - target)Repeaters from Grade 1 = Enrollment in Grade 1 x Grade 1 Repetition RateYear t-1 enrollment Year t-1 Year t-1 (target)and for the subsequent grades:Enrollment in Grade i = Promotees from Grade i-1 + Repeaters from Grade iYear t Year t-1 enrollment Year t-1 enrollmentPromotees from Grade i-1 = Enrollment in Grade i-1 x Grade i-1 Promotion RateYear t-1 enrollment Year t-1 Year t-1 (target)Repeaters from Grade i = Enrollment in Grade i x Grade i Repetition RateYear t-1 enrollment Year t-1 Year t-1 (target)The promotion, repetition and dropout rates for the base years are calculated from the data providedin the sheet “pupil” and you can put “targets” for your scenarios. Generally, they are supposed toimprove, that is higher promotion rate, and lower repetition and dropout rates. It is important to reflectthe government goals and prospective outcomes of other programs and measures aiming to improvehow pupils promote, repeat and dropout. Baseline data and results of enrolment projection can beseen in Tables 1 to 4.4

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management ReformGrade 1 Grade 22005/06 120 11018 Repeaters( r 1 = 15%)96 Promotees( p 1 = 80%)10 Repeaters( r 2 = 9%)2006/07100 105 NewPop. Aged 6 Intakes123 ?(b) Projections of Classes, Classrooms and SchoolsOnce enrollment is projected, the model projects the required number of classes. By maintaining thecurrent pupil-class ratios by grade and projected number of enrollment by grade, number of classesby grade is estimated as:Number of classes in Grade i= Enrollment in Grade i / Pupil-Class Ratio for Grade iFrom the total number of classes in the education level, required number of classrooms is estimatedas:Number of classrooms= Total number of classes / Classes per classroomSimilarly, total number of schools is estimated from the classes by:Number of schools= Total number of classes / Classes per schoolAll the results (including the intermediate ones) are rounded to the nearest integer (see Tables 5-7).(c) Projections of Teachers and Non-teaching StaffProjection of teacher requirement (in Table 7) is based on the following relation:Pupil-Teacher Ratio (PTR) = Enrollments / Number of TeachersAnd, conversely, we may write:Number of Teachers= Enrollments / Pupil-Teacher Ratio (PTR)Although teacher requirement is projected from the pupil-teacher ratio, non-teaching staff needed iscalculated from the total number of schools and the average number of non-teaching staff per school:Number of Non-teaching Staff= Number of Schools x Non-Teaching Staff per School(d) Recurrent Expenditure ProjectionIn this demonstration model, only four major categories of recurrent expenditure are projected:1. salaries (of the teachers and non-teaching staff)2. pupil-related expenditure3. school-related expenditure, and4. administrative and support expenditure of the central education units/officesTotal number of teachers and non-teaching staff and average salaries together with the annualgrowth rates of the salaries determined the total salary expenditure. Pupil-related expenditure isprojected by multiplying the total number of pupils with average annual expenditure per pupil.Similarly, school-related expenditure is projected by multiplying the total number of schools withaverage annual expenditure per school. Administrative expenditure is simply projected through a setgrowth rate (or assumption on growth rate). Detailed calculations can be studied in Tables 8 and 9.(e) Capital Expenditure ProjectionTotal capital expenditure is sub-divided into only two categories: construction of new classrooms andall other investment expenditure including major repair and maintenance. Construction expenditurefor new classrooms is based on the required number of new classrooms (from Table 6) and unit cost5

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management Reform(or construction expenditure per classroom). Other investment expenditure includes all exceptconstruction of classrooms, and derived through a growth rate.OutputsOnce you have set the input parameters described in the above-mentioned section in the sheet name“Pupil” and the module is executed (press the button “Simulate”), an new sheet with the name“Projection” will be appeared with the projection results for each of the next 10 years in 10 tables. Thetables include:1. Demographic (population) data and gross enrollment ratio (GER)2. Gross admission rate (AIR) and new entrants to first grade of primary3. Enrollments by grade and total enrollments at the primary level.4. Pupil-class ratio by grade and classes per classroom5. Number of classes by grade and classrooms need6. Teachers and non-teaching school staff7. Recurrent expenditure8. Capital and total education expenditureIt is recommended that you save the “scenario” by giving a name to the EXCEL file, in order to beable to compare various scenarios.6

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management ReformHow to Use Enrollment Projection (Simulation) Model – A step-by-stepGuideStep 1. Start Microsoft Excel and open “UNM-Simulation.XLS”You will see the following sheet.Step 2. Click on the light green area or where it says, “click here to start data entry”.Step 3. Prepare the following baseline data (see below data requirement).Data Requirements1. Education level (e.g., Primary)2. Years of study (in that level)3. Starting grade of the level (e.g., 1 for Primary level)4. Minimum admission age ( e.g., 6 years for Primary level)5. Base-year for projection6. Entrance-age population for the education level (e.g., 6 years old population for Primary)7. School-going age population for the education level (e.g., 6-11 year-olds for Primary)8. Number of schools9. Number of teaching staff10. Number of non-teaching staff11. Enrollment and repeaters by grade for a minimum of two consecutive years12. Number of graduate for base year13. Number of classes (pupil groups) by grade14. Major education expenditurea. Average annual salary per teacherb. Annual salary per non-teaching staffc. Pupil-related expenditure per pupild. School-related expenditures per schoole. Central & other non-school expenditures (administrative expenditure of the area)7

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management Reformf. Construction expenditure per classroomg. Other investment expenditures (all other capital expenditure except construction)Step 4. Enter a country, region or area name for your data in the following pop-up screen. Click Okto continue the next step or click Cancel to exit this module.Step 5. Specify Primary, Secondary, Basic or General education level for your data.Click Ok to proceed the step or click Cancel to return to the previous pop-up screen.Step 6. Specify the youngest allowable school admission age in the pop-up screen that appears.Click Ok to proceed the step or click Cancel to return to the previous pop-up screen.Step 7. Specify the number of grades.Click Ok to proceed the step or click Cancel to return to the previous pop-up screen.Step 8. Specify the number of base years (depending on how many years of baseline data you canprovide) to be provided. It must be between 2 to 5.Click Ok to proceed the step or click Cancel to return to the previous pop-up screen.8

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management ReformStep 9. Specify the first year for your data in the pop-up screen that appears.Click Ok to proceed the step or click Cancel to return to the previous pop-up screen.Step 10. Once the parameters are set, you can begin data entry in the blank sheet that appears asfollows:You must fill in the required data in the light blue colored areas. Start with the “Population aged 6”row and work way down making sure to fill in all available data.Step 11. Press “Simulate” located at the top left of the spreadsheet and the module will create newworksheet name “Projection” for the output results.Note: By looking the embedded formula in the cells, you can find out how the relationship among thecells to produce the indicators or results.9

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management ReformOutput TablesAs mentioned above, once you have set the input parameters described in the above-mentionedsection in the sheet name “Pupil” and the module is executed, an output similar to the screen shotbelow will present you with the results in the sheet name “Projection”.In the following output tables, altogether ten different tables containing different information, will beproduced in the separate sheet “projection” for next 10 years:10

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management ReformCreating Different Scenarios or Changing Data and Targets in the ModelIt is possible to edit the input cells (light blue colours) in the “pupil” sheet, but not the educationstructure, number of years for the baseline data. Similarly, targets (in yellow color) in the “projection”sheet can be changed at any time. Once you have changed the data in these cells, data and resultswill be changed in appropriate tables.11

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management ReformIn order to analyze different outputs by providing different input resources, the module lets the userset different targets or policy variables. For examples, in output table 7, based on the data provided,pupils-teacher ratio and required teachers for next 10 years are as follows:Then, there is a policy target by the year 2010, the government plans to achieve the pupils-teacherratio to be 35 with gradual changes while other effecting parameters such as school age population,enrollment, promotion rate, etc will remain the same as today.The new scenario can be simulated as follows:1. first, copy the sheet “projectionX” to a new sheet “projectionY”;2. set the target pupil-teacher ratio to 35 in 2010 (in the new sheet);3. then, change all the intermediate cells appropriately, from which you would like to starteffecting, to the cell before with the policy target was entered. In this example from 2007 to2009;(you can also use the “linear interpolation” function if you want to interpolate linearlly); and4. the module will project required number of teachers to reach the ratio and changes will beinplaced in all the associated cells (see below).12

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management ReformReferences and Further ReadingUNESCO Asia and the Pacific Regional Bureau for Education, Education Policy and Reform Unit(EPR), Handbook for Decentralized Education Planning, Bangkok 2005.UNESCO-PROAP, Planning and Sector Analysis Unit (PSA), “EFA Planning Guide”, Bangkok 2001Noel F. McGinn, “Computer Simulations and Policy Analysis”, Knowledge Enterprise, Inc. 2001UNESCO-PROAP, “Educational Management Information System – Training Package”, Bangkok1998.OECD, Center for Educational Research and Innovation, “Education Policy Analysis 1997”, Paris1997.UNESCO-PROAP, “Education and Human Rsourses Sector Analysis – A Training Manual”, Bangkok1996.UNESCO-PROAP, “Educational Management Information System (EMIS) – Training Manual”,Bangkok 1992.13