Education Analysis and Projection Model - UNESCO Bangkok

Mekong Institute-UNESCO Course on Decentralized Education Planning in the context of Public Sector Management Reformcan simulate different scenarios by providing different targets and can analyze the effect of suchchanges on the selected sub-sector: primary, secondary, or basic education sub-sector, or entiregeneral education.More comprehensive model, ANPRO Model (see “Handbook for Decentralized Education Planning”,UNESCO-Bangkok, 2005) includes preschool, technical and vocational education, non-formaleducation, and teacher training. The ANPRO Model also provides enrollment projection for girls forthe preschool to upper secondary sub-sectors and comparisons of boy and girl enrollment usingselected indicators. Moreover, a brief presentation of projections for the GDP, governmentexpenditure, government education expenditure and possible donors' contributions together withsubsector-wide expenditures until 2015/16 are included in the model sheets.The present demonstration module includes the following parts:• School-age population projections through set growth rates;• Projections of new entrants in Grade 1 and enrollment by grade;• Projections of classes, classrooms, and schools;• Projections of teachers and non-teaching staff in schools;• Projections of recurrent expenditure including staff salaries and other recurrent expendituresbased on the average expenditure for a pupil and for a school (unit cost);• Projections of capital expenditure; and• Projections of total public education expenditure.(a) Enrollment ProjectionThe cohort-component method is used in enrollment projection, that is, the student flow rates(promotion, repetition and dropout rates) together with enrollment in the most recent school year areused to drive the future enrollment. The following equations are used in projecting for Grade 1:Enrollment in Grade 1 = New intake to Grade 1 + Repeaters from Grade 1Year t Year t Year t-1 enrollmentNew intake to Grade 1 = Population at the school x Apparent Intake RateYear t entrant age, Year t (AIR - target)Repeaters from Grade 1 = Enrollment in Grade 1 x Grade 1 Repetition RateYear t-1 enrollment Year t-1 Year t-1 (target)and for the subsequent grades:Enrollment in Grade i = Promotees from Grade i-1 + Repeaters from Grade iYear t Year t-1 enrollment Year t-1 enrollmentPromotees from Grade i-1 = Enrollment in Grade i-1 x Grade i-1 Promotion RateYear t-1 enrollment Year t-1 Year t-1 (target)Repeaters from Grade i = Enrollment in Grade i x Grade i Repetition RateYear t-1 enrollment Year t-1 Year t-1 (target)The promotion, repetition and dropout rates for the base years are calculated from the data providedin the sheet “pupil” and you can put “targets” for your scenarios. Generally, they are supposed toimprove, that is higher promotion rate, and lower repetition and dropout rates. It is important to reflectthe government goals and prospective outcomes of other programs and measures aiming to improvehow pupils promote, repeat and dropout. Baseline data and results of enrolment projection can beseen in Tables 1 to 4.4