Turkish Power Market Monthly Report (June 2012) - Hydropower ...

4. Analysis of Turkish DAM Activities in June 2012The Turkish DAM is characterized by hourly and even weekly fluctuations in pricespikes and production volumes. However, in the aggregate, trading volumes andclearing prices continue to grow. In June 2012, monthly electricity production increasedby 10% compared with the previous year. Based on HIPP’s previous studies, this reportuses three price clusters: peak, shoulder-peak and off-peak hours. During daytime,peak hours were categorized between 11:00-19:00 hours, whereas off-peak hours werebetween 02:00-08:00 and shoulder peak hours were 08:00-11:00 and 19:00-02:00.PMUM’s web site provides day-ahead demand and production forecasts. Data is alsoprovided on KGUP that is the final schedule of the next day’s production after dayaheadbidding 2 . HIPP uses KGUP as a proxy for demand on the Turkish power market.Table 5. Comparison of DAM variablesYearDAM Price(US c/kWh)TradingVolume onthe DAM(MWh)SystemDemandVolume(MWh)Variables onHourly BasisJune, 2011 June, 2012 ChangeMax 11.54 11.10 -3.81%Average 5.96 7.94 33.22%Min 0.1 0.00 -100.00%Max 4,091 7,208 76.19%Average 1,318 5,082 285.58%Min 81 3,558 4292.59%Max 29,560 31,486 6.52%Average 23,290 24,765 6.33%Min 17,300 17,607 1.77%The data in Table 5 shows there were considerable y-o-y change in key marketvariables. Despite the stable electricity supply and prices in June 2012, key marketvariables continued to show y-o-y increases. On average, SDV demand increased by6.33% in June 2012 while trading volumes and prices on the DAM tended to increaseas well. In the examined month, DAM’s trading volume almost tripled compared to June2011, while prices showed a 33.22% y-o-y increase on average.2 We estimated the difference between actual monthly production and KGUP monthly production at around 11% in June. (Total sumof KGUP production for June was 17,831 GWh, while for the same time period actual production was 19,858 GWh).6 | P a g e