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Operational risk capital and insurance in emerging markets

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Table 5: Parameters of possible configurations <strong><strong>in</strong>surance</strong> schemesThe convolution procedure to obta<strong>in</strong> aggregate losses now takes <strong>in</strong>to account theformula (5) <strong>in</strong>troduced <strong>in</strong> the previous section. The procedure follows these steps1. Def<strong>in</strong>e the values for the parameters of the <strong><strong>in</strong>surance</strong> agreement (either A or B)2. Generate n from the Poisson function (bad control situation)3. Generate n losses z of the Log-Normal distribution (low-<strong>risk</strong> situation)4. Estimate S seg accord<strong>in</strong>g to equation (5)5. Return to step 2 <strong>and</strong> repeat NSim (100 000) times6. Obta<strong>in</strong> the expected values <strong>and</strong> a-percentiles of generated distribution F seg(S) .7. Estimate the implied operational <strong>risk</strong> <strong>capital</strong> with ORC fa = F _ 1seg (a) _ E(S seg ) .Table 6 summarizes the results. In the “favorable” <strong><strong>in</strong>surance</strong> scheme (A), the 99,9percentile is reduced by US$ 212 thous<strong>and</strong> whereas the value of the expectedmean loss falls by US$ 52 thous<strong>and</strong>s. This means that the operational <strong>risk</strong> <strong>capital</strong>reduction is about US$ 160 thous<strong>and</strong>s. On the other h<strong>and</strong>, under <strong><strong>in</strong>surance</strong> B, thedifferences between the ex-ante <strong>and</strong> ex-post <strong><strong>in</strong>surance</strong> cases are not very dist<strong>in</strong>ct.Under this scheme the operational <strong>risk</strong> <strong>capital</strong> falls only by US$ 16 thous<strong>and</strong>s. Inpractice, these small effects are not significant enough 22 .Table 6: <strong>Operational</strong> <strong>risk</strong> <strong>capital</strong> before <strong>and</strong> after the <strong><strong>in</strong>surance</strong>22 In some situations this may imply that the effect of <strong><strong>in</strong>surance</strong> might be lower than its costsSBS Revista de Temas F<strong>in</strong>ancieros 46

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