Contents3The many faces of war:As the nature of conflictchanges, traditionaldefinitions of warfarefall shortErnie Regehr7 Talking crime in theCaribbean with FrancisForbes: An interview912The limits to measuringthe global arms tradeKenneth EppsCanadian military exports:Selected contracts ordeliveries reported in 200913 India-Pakistan relations andthe impact on AfghanistanNicole Waintraub1618Brinksmanship, delay,and broken agreements:The Southern Sudanindependence referendumJohn SiebertFrom START to zero:The importance – andlimitations – of theNew Strategic ArmsReduction TreatyCesar Jaramillo23 Resources11Acronyms andabbreviationstheploughshares monitorStella plays with a child at the Heal Africa Transit Center in Goma,Democratic Republic of Congo. According to Gender-Based ViolenceExpert Mendy Marsh, a key component of reintegration after sexual violenceis “for the women to feel like they can move on and take care of theirchildren.” © Aubrey Graham/IRIN.STAFF: Kenneth Epps | Melanie Ferrier, intern | Maribel Gonzales | Debbie HughesTasneem Jamal | Cesar Jaramillo | Anne Marie Kraemer | Ernie Regehr | Nancy RegehrJohn Siebert, Executive Director | Wendy Stocker | Nicole Waintraub, intern | Christina WoolnerThe <strong>Ploughshares</strong> Monitor is the quarterly journal of <strong>Project</strong> <strong>Ploughshares</strong>, the peace centreof The Canadian Council of Churches. <strong>Ploughshares</strong> works with churches, nongovernmentalorganizations, and governments, in Canada and abroad, to advance policies and actions thatprevent war and armed violence and build peace. <strong>Project</strong> <strong>Ploughshares</strong> is affiliated with theInstitute of Peace and Conflict Studies, Conrad Grebel University College, University of Waterloo.Office address: <strong>Project</strong> <strong>Ploughshares</strong>57 Erb Street West, WaterlooOntario N2L 6C2 Canada519-888-6541, fax: 519-888-0018plough@ploughshares.ca www.ploughshares.ca<strong>Project</strong> <strong>Ploughshares</strong> gratefully acknowledges the ongoing financial support of the manyindividuals, national churches and church agencies, local congregations, religious orders, andorganizations across Canada who ensure that the work of <strong>Project</strong> <strong>Ploughshares</strong> continues.We are particularly grateful to The Simons Foundation in Vancouverfor its generous support.All donors of $50 or more receive a complimentary subscription to The <strong>Ploughshares</strong> Monitor.Annual subscription rates for libraries and institutions are: $30 (Canada), US$30 (US), US$35(international). Single copies are $5.00 plus shipping.Unless indicated otherwise, material may be reproduced freely, provided the author and sourceare indicated and one copy is sent to <strong>Project</strong> <strong>Ploughshares</strong>. Return postage is guaranteed.Publications Mail Registration No. 40065122.ISSN 1499-321X.PAP Registration No. 11099.The <strong>Ploughshares</strong> Monitor is indexed in the Canadian Periodical Index.Design: Creative Services, University of Waterloo.Photos of <strong>Ploughshares</strong> staff by Karl Griffiths-Fulton.Printed at Waterloo Printing, Waterloo, Ontario.Printed with vegetable inks on paper with recycled content.We acknowledge the financial support of the Government of Canada throughthe Canada Periodical Fund (CPF) for our publishing activities.
The many faces of warAs the nature of conflict changes, traditional definitionsof warfare fall shortErnie RegehrBetween July 30 and August 4 thisyear, fighters of the DemocraticForces for the Liberation of Rwandaand elements of the Mai Mai, a localmilitia, entered Luvungi and surroundingvillages in the DemocraticRepublic of Congo (DRC) and, inone extended weekend, raped 150to 200 women and children, includinga number of baby boys. Theythen looted the area and moved on(Kaufman <strong>2010</strong>).News of the assaults did notreach international media outletsuntil weeks later, and when the UNthen investigated, it established thatthe number of rapes in the reportedincidents was actually 242. However,investigators also learned of another267 rapes in the district that had notbeen previously reported (Globe andMail <strong>2010</strong>).The context was the ongoing civilwar in the DRC, but somehow theterm “war” doesn’t come close to capturingthe scale of horror of Luvungi.The rapes are beyond extreme by anymeasure, but as part of the chaos andfighting that have engulfed the DRCsince 1990, the Luvungi victims representbut the tiniest fraction of thewar’s human toll. Five million deathsin the DRC are directly attributableto the war. Hundreds of thousandshave been raped; untold millions areinternally displaced. According toUNICEF, there are more than fourmillion orphaned children in the DRC. 1Contemporary war is largely “unofficial”and often unacknowledged. It israrely declared; flags and bugles don’therald its approach. The march to waris replaced by the gradual (or sometimesrapid) disintegration of order inseverely troubled societies and theinexorable descent into political andcriminal public violence.Indeed, “public violence” maywell be the more apt, though stillemotionally inadequate, term formany of today’s armed conflicts.Public violence is invariably linkedto longstanding social and politicalgrievances that remain chronicallyunaddressed and are allowed to festerand undermine confidence in publicinstitutions and processes. In turn,widespread rejection of public institutionsis transformed into lawlessnessand armed violence when ignoredgrievances are joined by a readyaccess to small arms – the pre-eminenthardware of public violence.When a state finds itself in thatdeadly combination of circumstances– pervasive grievance, loss of confidencein government, and abundantsupplies of user-friendly small arms –it finds it difficult to avoid the descentinto chaos and the public violencethat must finally be recognized as war.Counting the warsSince 1987 <strong>Project</strong> <strong>Ploughshares</strong>(<strong>2010</strong>a) has been tracking globalarmed conflicts and issuing annuallyan Armed Conflicts Report. In 1987,there were 37 wars taking place on theterritories of 34 states – Indonesia,the Philippines, and Iran were eachthe scene of two separate armed conflicts.Twenty-three years later, 2009ended with a total of 28 wars on theterritories of 24 countries – with thePhilippines and Sudan both the sceneof two separate wars, while Indianterritory hosted three armed conflicts.That is a welcome 25 per centdrop in the number of active armedconflicts, but it is a decline that masksa dynamic quarter-century of publicviolence and war in which many newwars began as others were ending.In addition to the 37 conflictsunder way in 1987, 44 new conflictsbroke out in the ensuing 23 years, fora total of 81 separate wars during thisperiod. Of those, 58 were resolved,but in 11 of those cases the peacedidn’t last and war resumed (of the11 resumed wars, six subsequentlyended). All told, the planet thushosted a total of 92 wars during thelast quarter-century.Not only do some conflicts reignite,but wars generally last a longtime. Fully one-third of the conflictsunder way in 1987 remain activetoday. Of the current 28 conflicts,only six are less than a decade old.Six have been under way for morethan three decades, another seven formore than two decades, and nine formore than one decade.A child pauses briefly with a toy in a camp forinternally displaced persons in Minova, DRC.© Aubrey Graham/IRIN.3The <strong>Ploughshares</strong> Monitor I <strong>Winter</strong> <strong>2010</strong>