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Wind Erosion in Western Queensland Australia

Modelling Land Susceptibility to Wind Erosion in Western ... - Ninti One

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Chapter 7 – Land Erodibility Dynamics 1980-2006Results show a weak correlation between land erodibility and annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall across the studyarea (Table 7.1). Importantly, land erodibility is responsive to multi-year (>2 years) ra<strong>in</strong>falldeficiencies (drought) and periods of above average ra<strong>in</strong>fall. Similar responses have beenreported <strong>in</strong> dust source areas <strong>in</strong> the African Sahel and North America (e.g. Brooks andLegrand, 2000; Prospero and Lamb, 2003; Reheis, 2006). Significant <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> the areas ofland susceptible to w<strong>in</strong>d erosion occur <strong>in</strong> drought years (Figures 7.5 and 7.6). The landscaperesponse to drought varied between bioregions and is dependent on antecedent ra<strong>in</strong>fall andvegetation conditions, which generates the lag responses <strong>in</strong> land erodibility change (alsoPeters and Eve, 1995). The modelled <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> land erodibility with drought are consistentwith reports of <strong>in</strong>creased w<strong>in</strong>d erosion activity over the study area, e.g. McTa<strong>in</strong>sh et al.(1989), and a global dependence of temporal variations <strong>in</strong> w<strong>in</strong>d erosion on episodic droughts(Middleton, 1985; Goudie and Middleton, 1992; Gao et al., 2003).The spatial extent of drought <strong>in</strong> western <strong>Queensland</strong> is dependent on the ra<strong>in</strong>fall relationshipwith ENSO (Crimp and Day, 2003). Temporal patterns <strong>in</strong> areas affected by drought are not,however, consistent and may vary considerably from year-to-year (McKeon et al., 2004). Thepoor correlation between modelled land erodibility and the SOI (Table 7.1) is a result of thisphenomenon. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation, represented <strong>in</strong> this study by the SOI, is afluctuation <strong>in</strong> the <strong>in</strong>tensity and position of the Walker circulation (Troup, 1965). Susta<strong>in</strong>ednegative SOI phases (El Niño) are associated with extended periods of warm sea-surfacetemperatures (SST) <strong>in</strong> the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, a weaken<strong>in</strong>g of the Walkercirculation and reduced convection over the <strong>Australia</strong>n cont<strong>in</strong>ent. Positive SOI phases (LaNiña) are associated with a strengthen<strong>in</strong>g of the Walker circulation and easterly trade w<strong>in</strong>dsand may result <strong>in</strong> enhanced convection and ra<strong>in</strong>fall over parts of eastern <strong>Australia</strong> (Sturmanand Tapper, 2001). The association of peaks <strong>in</strong> land erodibility over the study area dur<strong>in</strong>g ElNiño driven drought events suggests that despite the poor correlation ENSO plays animportant role <strong>in</strong> modulat<strong>in</strong>g land erodibility dynamics <strong>in</strong> western <strong>Queensland</strong>.The <strong>in</strong>teraction of ENSO with the PDO adds complexity to understand<strong>in</strong>g ra<strong>in</strong>fall anddrought variability <strong>in</strong> western <strong>Queensland</strong>. Power et al. (1999) reported on the <strong>in</strong>ter-decadalmodulation of ENSO and its effects on ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong> <strong>Australia</strong>. Their results showed that warm(positive) and cool (negative) phases of the PDO may enhance or suppress positive andnegative SOI phases and the probability of eastern <strong>Australia</strong> receiv<strong>in</strong>g above or belowaverage ra<strong>in</strong>fall. McKeon et al. (2004) reported that less than 10% of years (1890-1991) with184

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