great. However, the mirror failed to deploy during attempts on twosuccessive days by the crew of the Mir space-station. The Progresssupply-spacecraft on which the mirror was mounted was then separatedfrom Mir and reentered the Earth’s atmosphere.What about the risk to a naked-eye observer? The angularresolution of the eye is usually between 45 and 60 arc-seconds, so theminimum resolvable object size would then be roughly 80 to 100 m.This is larger than Znamya’s mirror, but only by a factor betweenroughly three and four. To protect itself during the daytime, the eyedecreases its aperture by approximately a factor of two, but the lowlevels of total illumination from Znamya would be insufficient tocause such a decrease. Therefore, a naked-eye observer would be safeby only a narrow margin. Larger mirrors would pose a greater risk.For an observer looking through an 8-inch telescope, “Iridiumflashes” (Chien 1998) are safe by a similar margin. The Iridium satellitesorbit at higher altitudes than Znamya’s: a temporary orbit at 500 kmwhile their performance is verified, followed by an operational orbitat 792 km (Chien 1998). Their “main mission antennas” are flat, highlyreflective rectangles whose dimensions are 1.88 m × 0.86 m (Chien1998). At 500 km, these antennas would subtend 0.78 arc-second ×0.36 arc-second = 0.28 square arc-second at normal incidence; at 796km, the corresponding values are 0.49 arc-second × 0.22 arc-second= 0.11 square arc-second. These values are below the limit of resolutionof an 8-inch telescope, but not by large factors.In bright sunlight, the eye also protects itself by an aversionreflex which limits its exposure times to roughly one second. However,this reflex becomes inactive at the low levels of total illuminationwhich occur in eclipse conditions or in the situation studied here.3. Detailed CalculationWe make the following assumptions: mirror 25 m in diameter,aluminum-coated with reflectance 0.90, at a distance of 360 km abovethe Earth’s surface; mirror segmented with 30% less reflecting areathan that of a continuous mirror (Sky & Telescope 1999); diameter ofilluminated area on surface of Earth = 6 km; uniform illuminationacross target area; air mass 1 with the mirror perpendicular to theline of sight (worst case); mirror viewed with 7 × 50 binoculars with7 mm pupil in observer’s eye (young adult).We calculate ocular exposure as follows:Solar irradiance at Znamya orbit = 1367 W m -2 with 49.6% reachingthe ground (Pitts & Kleinstein 1993a);Radiant flux collected by Znamya and reflected to Earth: P vis = 1367× 0.496 ×π×12.5 2 × 0.70 × 0.90 = 2.097 × 10 5 W;Irradiance in the illuminated zone: E vis = 2.097 × 10 5 / (π×3000 2 ) =7.42 × 10 -3 Wm -2 ;Radiant flux collected by 50 mm objective: P bin = 7.42 × 10 -3 ×π×0.025 2 = 1.456 × 10 -5 W.We allow for 98% transmittance through optics of binoculars and72.5% transmittance through ocular media, and we assume anemmetropic (normal) eye with posterior focal length 22.22 mm andrefractive index 1.333 (Pitts & Kleinstein 1993b).We calculate retinal image size as follows:Angle subtended by Znamya mirror = arctan (25/360000) = 0.004degree;Apparent size when viewed through binoculars: 0.028 degree = 100.8arc-second;Retinal image size = (22.22 tan 0.028)/1.333 = 0.00815 mm = 0.000815cm.Therefore the retinal irradiance is: E ret = 1.456 × 10 -5 × 0.98 × 0.725 /(π×0.000407 2 ) = 19.88 W cm -2 .We compare this with viewing the Sun with unaided eye with3 mm pupil through air mass 1:Retinal image size = (22.22 tan 0.5)/1.333 = 0.145 mm = 0.0145 cm.The retinal irradiance now is: E ret = 1367 × 0.496 × 0.725 × (0.0015/0.0073) 2= 20.76 W cm -2 .4. DiscussionThese calculations assume a geometry which permits the Znamyamirror to irradiate a circular spot on the surface of the Earth directlybelow it with uniform illumination at normal incidence. In reality,the departure of the beam from normal incidence at the Earth’s surfacemay be significant, and an increased air mass must then be takeninto account. In this sense, our detailed calculation represents a worstcasescenario. However, within the illuminated zone, the irradianceis not uniform from edge to edge, but is peaked towards the centre(Appendix). Our calculation is therefore conservative, because it mayunderestimate the actual ocular exposure for a ground-based observerviewing Znamya through 7 × 50 binoculars from a location near thecentre of the illuminated zone.The flatness of the Znamya mirror is a crucial issue in ourcalculations. As noted in Section 1, available data on the secondZnamya attempt imply an intended flatness to within half a degree.In comparison with this, a photo of the deployed mirror in the firstattempt (Sky & Telescope 1999) appears to show substantially morewrinkling. Even with this wrinkling, and “although much of the targetarea was blanketed by clouds, a few observers reported seeing a onesecondflash nearly as bright as the full Moon” (Sky & Telescope 1999).In that experiment, the mirror’s diameter was 20 m (Sky & Telescope1999), so this brightness was concentrated within a subtended angleof about 11 arc-seconds, which is approximately 4 to 5 times smallerthan the limit of resolution for a naked-eye observer. In this case, therelative brevity of the flash probably prevented the use of binocularsor telescopes. This factor may have fortuitously combined with thewrinkling and/or the limitation of the number of observers by cloudyconditions to prevent any cases of eye damage from having beenreported.Retinal photoreceptors at the centre of the fovea (cones on thevisual axis of the eye) have centre-to-centre spacing of approximately2 m (Bennett & Rabbetts 1989). The retinal image of Znamya, whenviewed through 7 × 50 binoculars, would therefore cover approximately16 foveal cones. The computed retinal irradiance level is 96% of the238JRASC December/ décembre 2000
level for daylight unaided exposure with the Sun at the zenith. Thusthe threshold exposure duration for photochemical retinal damagefor observing Znamya is only slightly longer than that required forthreshold damage from unaided sungazing.While the retinal image of Znamya is extremely small, it has avery high associated retinal irradiance. It could be a very seriousretinal hazard when viewed through binoculars or telescopes.On every clear day, near the beginning of sunrise and the endof sunset, most of the Sun’s disk is obscured by the Earth’s limb, andhumans would therefore face an equivalent ocular hazard, exceptthat the large intervening air mass which is present in such situationsprotects us. An astronaut on an airless moon or planet would facesuch a hazard at these times, or even if most of the Sun’s disk wereobscured by an opaque object such as a large rock, unless his spacesuitprovided visual protection greater than that from air mass 1. Equivalently,if an astronaut were to travel substantially farther than 1 AU fromthe Sun, so that the resulting decrease in solar irradiance caused hiseyes’ entrance pupils to expand significantly, he would be subject toeye damage unless he were farther than roughly 40 AU from the Sun,so that it was no longer fully resolved on his retinas.We are grateful to P.A. Delaney, M.M. DeRobertis, M.L. McCall, andthe referees, for valuable discussions and comments. This work wassupported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Councilof Canada under grant A-4638, and by the Canadian OptometricEducation Trust Fund.James G. LaframboisePhysics and Astronomy DepartmentYork University4700 Keele StreetToronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3Therefore, as viewed by an observer at the centre of the illuminatedspot on the ground, every part of the mirror would be seen to bereflecting some portion of the Sun’s surface: so for this observer, themirror would be seen as fully illuminated.For an observer located at a distance r from the centre of theFig.1 — All 3 km disks inside a 6 km circle will overlap at its centre.illuminated spot, we calculate the fractional irradiance as follows.We note that the centres of the 3 km disks all lie within a radius of 1.5km from the centre of the 6 km illuminated spot (Figure 2). We assumethat within this 1.5 km radius, these centres are distributed randomly(uniformly), implying that the tilts of all the small mirrors in theB. Ralph ChouSchool of OptometryUniversity of WaterlooWaterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1AppendixVariation of Irradiance Acrossthe Illuminated SpotAs noted in Section 1, the announced width of the spot of light onthe ground was to have been 6 to 8 km in the second Znamya attempt.We again assume 6 km, because this gives us the “worst case.” Also, 8km may correspond to nonvertical incidence of the beam. Again, 6km corresponds to an angular width of the spot on the ground of aboutone degree, as seen from the spacecraft. In comparison, the anglesubtended by the Sun’s disk, at the Earth, is about 1/2 degree, andtherefore, a perfectly flat mirror would produce a spot of light about3 km wide on the ground (1/2 degree ×π/180 radians per degree ×360 km = 3.14 km). Also, tilting such a mirror by half a degree woulddisplace such a spot about 3 km. Since 3 km + 3 km = 6 km = theassumed width of the spot on the ground, the Znamya mirror, asannounced, can be considered as a mosaic of smaller flat mirrorswhose maximum tilt relative to each other is 1/2 degree. We note thatall 3 km disks inside a 6 km circle will overlap at its centre (Figure 1).Fig. 2 — An observer at radius r sees an amount of illumination proportionalto the area of overlap between the two 3 km disks shown. The disk whoseboundary is shown as dashed contains the central points of all the overlappingilluminated spots. The other 3 km disk contains all such points located within1.5 km of the observer.December/ décembre 2000 JRASC239