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Change is coming, however, but probably not in the first part of the model—theselection strategies. Although the mechanics of selection may differ in detail as mediatechnologies change, the factors influencing program selection processes are likely toremain much the same across old and new platforms. As the means of audienceevaluation change, however, scheduling and promotion will converge, altering theprogramming paradigm. This essay explains why and how the strategies of promotionwill engulf scheduling as a result of the coming media technologies and proposes aforeshortened model of programming.Figure 2 lists the major developments in media technology that have alreadychanged programming strategies and some that will change them again in the future.For a quick reprise of media history, as has long been recognized, while drasticallyaltering radio programming, the introduction of satellite distribution also birthed cabletelevision, forever transforming television’s competitive array. Remote controls then ledto cold starts, seamless program transitions, and increased promotion of programs.Home videocassette recorders threatened to disrupt program flow strategies with timeshifting,although little materialized after the novelty effect wore off. Although not yetin many homes, high-definition technology rapidly changed Hollywood’s programproduction processes, which has especially affected the attributes of intimacy andpresence in camera shots. Personal video recorders (PVRs, also called more broadly,digital video recorders or DVRs) may do what VCRs couldn’t because of technicaldifferences in picture quality, random access, and such other features as the ability toskip commercial breaks. Much more effectively than VCRs, TiVo and its PVR kin giveviewers the ability to fit programs to their own time schedules, changing how peoplewatch television. Now, portable personal media meters (PPM) are on the near horizon;personal metering will change how the industry measures that consumption. As theInternet moves inevitably toward convergence with terrestrial and satellite television, achannel-less entertainment and information medium will emerge. When fullydigitalized from source to viewers, portable meters combined with the personalizationof viewing and the “Internetization” of television will make the biggest changes yet inprogramming strategies.Figure 2. Technologies Impacting Programming Strategiessatellite transmissionremote control devices (RCDs)videocassette recorders (VCRs)digitalizationhigh-definition television (HDTV)personal video recorders (PVRs)Internetizationportable personal meters (PPMs)SelectionIn programming jargon, selection refers to the complex of factors influencing thebuying and production of programs (or other content) for domestic and perhapsinternational entertainment viewing or listening. Decisions about buying or renewing(or canceling) programs—the selection process—are influenced by such factors asrelative program cost, a show’s novelty or trendiness, presumptions about audienceviewing habits, compatibility of a show with the existing schedule, the availability oftalent, and the ability of a program to differentiate or brand the channel. Otherconsiderations influencing the making of new programs include the reputation of theproducers and writers, the appeal of the talent, the longevity of the concept, and theavailability of cofinancing and coproduction. The degree of appeal to and size andeconomic condition of the international syndication market are other crucial factors.Generally, the programmer’s goal is to maximize novelty while minimizing risk.In addition, economic factors plainly affect the selection of syndicated content, suchas payment method (cash, barter, or cash-plus-barter), payout installments,amortization of per-episode costs, and whether a step deal is possible. In addition,audience factors enter the decision process, such as a show’s track record on comparableoutlets, whether the audience is aging, whether the ratings are holding, increasing, orslipping, and so on. And the newest economic factors affecting live and tapedprograms have the goal of extending audiences: To what extent can the content bereused via simulcasting and repurposing on other co-owned platforms? None of thesefactors, naturally, have to do with that elusive element called “quality.” All have to dowith revenue and profit.The strength and salience of these individual factors will vary somewhat for differentsituations (such as the concept and the script stages for new programs) and for differentmedia-for terrestrial and satellite radio, for cable and broadcast networks, for localstations in different competitive and financial situations, and for an Internet radio orvideo service that supplies entertainment. Even in the new digital era, theprogrammers of online entertainment channels still have to concern themselves withwho provides the money, who the target audience is, and whether available content canappeal strongly enough to that target audience to interest backers, advertisers, andprogram distributors. The same factors will affect the selection of entertainmentprograms whether those shows appear on terrestrial television, satellite television, theInternet, or the coming converged medium (we need a name for it!), irrespective of themeans of audience and program evaluation.EvaluationEvaluation in any medium usually means figuring how many and who demographicallyor psychographically is viewing, listening, or using a program service. Evaluation canbe short term and focused on audience size—or long term and concerned with contenttrends such as style and genre popularity. Although evaluation also occurs in relationto external factors, such as price of a company’s stock and industry policies ofdiversification or consolidation, it is those audience shares that media executives wantto know first. Different services supply different kinds of numbers, but increasingly,76Feedback February 2003 (Vol. 44, No. 1)BEA—Educating tomorrow’s electronic media professionals 77