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FORECASTING ASSUMPTIONS AND RISKSForecasting Assumptions Risk Level OfUncertaintyDividend income from CouncilControlled Organisations– Council has assumed thatdividend levels are consistentfrom Tanlaw during the 10 yearperiod and that no dividendsare paid by the WaikatoRegional Airport Limitedor Local Authority SharedServices Ltd. Dividend incomeis estimated $1million perannum.Renewal of external funding– Council is able to retainall external funding even ifprojects are delayed.Population growth – Theaverage population growthin the district during the 10-year period is 5.6%. Declinein population is predictedat Meremere, Taupiri andNgaruawahia, while it willgrow at Gordonton, Tamahere,Matangi, Eureka, Te Kowhai,Horotiu, Te Kauwhata, Raglanand rural areas. Population atHuntly is expected to remainstatic.The level of dividendincome could vary frombudget.A project may be delayed,which would put theexternal funding at risk.Should the populationgrowth be higher thanprojected, then therewould be extra pressureon Council to provideand maintain additionalinfrastructure.MediumMediumLowReasons And Financial Effect OfUncertaintyMarket conditions will dictate thelevel of dividend we receive from ourCouncil Controlled Organisations.Some projects may not proceed ifexternal funding is not available.Population predictions are based onStatistics New Zealand, forecaststhat depend on a standard set ofdemographic assumptions that donot tend to change quickly (fertility,mortality and migration). There ishowever additional non-demographicfactors (District Plan changes,expressway development, newdevelopments in the North Waikatoand growth in the energy sector) thatmay have an influence on the futureprojected population at some wards.Should the populationgrowth be lower thanprojected then therewould be extra pressureon Council to maintainexisting infrastructureservices.Low toMediumFor this reason, medium growthscenarios have been used forRotowaro, Te Uku, Te Akau,Whitikahu, Taupiri, Huntly East andWest, Waerenga, Te Uku (overall)Ngaruawahia, Meremere, Inlet RaglanHarbour, and Inlet Aotea Harbour.High growth scenarios for WaikatoWestern Hills, Raglan, Te Kauwhata,Matangi, Eureka, Gordonton, Kainui,Tamahere-Tauwhare, Whatawhata,Maramarua, Te Kowhai and Horotiu.Council is assuming that therewill be no natural disasterrequiring emergency work thatcannot be funded out of thebudgetary provisions.A natural disaster willoccur requiring additionalfinancial and otherresources beyond thatwhich is affordable by thecommunity.Low toMediumIn the event of a natural disasterCouncil may be unable to fundthe recovery operations that arerequired.16 THE ROAD AHEAD - LONG-TERM COUNCIL COMMUNITY PLAN 2006-2016