Technologies to Reduce or Capture and Store Carbon Dioxide Emissions

• Oil depletion rates. Oil wells, as they mature, decline in production and are
eventually depleted. The loss of production must be replaced from other wells. For
example, for the world to increase conventional oil production from current levels of
roughly 80 mmb/d to the 106 mmb/d predicted by EIA for 2030, world petroleum
companies actually must bring more than 6 mmb/d of new production on-line each year to
offset depletion of roughly 5 mmb/d. The chart below illustrates the precarious treadmill of
world oil production:
10.00
Million barrels per day
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
-2.00
-4.00
Assuming Annual
Depletion at 5%
& Given Forecast
Oil Production
Growth
Required
New Production
Implies
-6.00
-8.00
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Source: Forecast Oil Production Growth from EIA International Energy Outlook
Figure 1-9: New Production to Offset Depletion
and Achieve EIA’s Conventional Oil Production Forecast
Assuming current depletion rates increase from 5 percent today to 6 percent by 2030, the world
will need to increase production each year by more than 7 million barrels per day to merely
offset depletion and eke out a 1 mmb/d net gain in production capacity – the equivalent of a new
Iran plus Norway every year. If this new production does not materialize, the widely feared peak
in conventional oil production will become a reality. Indeed, the EIA long-term forecast predicts
more than 11 mmb/d of unconventional oil production, including coal to liquids, heavy oil, tar
sands, shale and other sources. Rising production of unconventional resources is an early
indicator of a peak in low-cost conventional oil production.
• Natural gas production will have to increase 90 percent at the global level to
meet projected demand. Can Russia increase gas production by 90 percent by 2030?
India by 140 percent? The Middle East by 188 percent? Africa by 263 percent?
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